System test?

[bryz55]

Hey guys

Anyone with stats wanna test this one?

Rules
.no maidens
.distance 1200m +
.starters 8-14 (inclusive)
.starting price <=$2.50
.barrier 8 or less
.58kg or less
.last start <21
.senior jockey
.distance within 200m last start

All days

Place bet only


Winner winner chicken dinner!

[Bhagwan]

Result
Place
84.62%
+8.5% POT
Very good.

Win
50%
-3% LOT

[bryz55]

Cheers.

That is just a quick one I thought up haha...

How many was the sample? One would imagine a huge amount of turnover? I forgot to mention to delete hurdles and 2yo's.

The only downside would be physically watching each race and sticking to plan...

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[darkydog2002]

Hey Bryzz,
You should get a gander at My BSA one posted for the "experts" on the PA site.
$64 winner today.

[bryz55]

Hey darky I would but I got no clue what u are saying?

BSA? PA Site? I'm lost someone enlighten me please?

By the way why is it I ran a six week trial of a new system it showed great potential about 42% s/r over 90 bets over 30% pot...

Then I ran another trial from three months later and it may of well as been the how not to pick a winner system... So frustrating three days of over twelve hours a day going through form guides.

And now I'm back to square one...

Back to the drawing board for me

How many ridgid rules would a solid system have??? I'm all ears about now

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

Welcome to the club Bryz55, we've all done exactly that many times. That is not to say that your method was a dud, but you would need at least (in my opinion) 1000 bets to truly evaluate it. What I try to do is then give it a dry run for at least 150 bets to try and pin it down. Even then you have to realise that there will be inexplicable bad runs, I've operated a place system for over 5 years, it stands at just over 4% POT. If I was to dissect it into 3 month bits there would be a lot of treading water and even losses in some 3 month periods.

That's the nature of the game, "tenacity" I reckon the way to go is decide on a bank for the project and stick to it through thick and thin, i.e. its only had it when the banks bust.

Good luck!

[darkydog2002]

Bryzz,
PA punying ace

Chockablock with BSA

[bryz55]

So the letter r system is that dinkum or a joke? What sort of data backs it up?

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

Na, absolute joke mate BUT, incredibly often performs better than anything else,

I don't go to the track much these days (ill health) but when I do I will often include these daft selections as they do (more than they should) just make an incredible day!

I once had a 500-1 double with a $5 stake, idiot me cos it paid more than 800-1 @ tote odds.

[bryz55]

Ok 25 weeks checking my data (25 copies of TABForm back ordered)

Seln 130
W 40
Ret 149
Av div $3.70
Highest $5.70
POT ~13 %

Based on fri sat sun only... Should I smile?

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[thorns]

Not after only 140 selections.

Running a binomial stat test on that data suggests that the SR could drop as low as 22%, which with your av div means a loss. Of course, on the other side, it could go as high as 40%, which would mean you would have your very own money tree.

But ultimately, more selections are required before cracking the champagne.

[Bonecrusher]

Ok 25 weeks checking my data (25 copies of TABForm back ordered)

Could you order 250 copies of TABForm and let us know the results? ;)

[partypooper]

www.ozbet.com.au ..... click on the date...... click on Racing Info......... click on Tab-Form on line..........

[bryz55]

Cheers guys it is more of a grimace than a smile.

It's a slow process going through the old form guides unfortunately they on keep them for one year so I can't go back any further...

TABForm online only goes back three weeks? If I'm wrong please enlighten me.

Five bets per week it will take years to get the stats for the system... Unless I run it for all days of week.

Cheers for the input


Winnr winner chicken dinner!

[Bonecrusher]

It's a slow process going through the old form guides unfortunately they on keep them for one year so I can't go back any further...


So just run it real time, paper-based now, and we'll keep fingers crossed over the next 6 months?