BHAGWAN

[Mark]

Can you give me a run down of the expected run of outs for a 48% strike rate?

Cheers
Mark

[Mark]

Anybody have a formula for this????

[gazman]

hey mark its a pretty known fact that a coin toss can go ten tosses one way,
i no thats diifrent but we are still talking %%%%and i cant see yours be any different especially if its mechanical process that you use....
cheers..gaz..........

[Bhagwan]

40% = 14 outs
45% =12 outs
50% = 10 outs

Cheers.

[Wunfluova]

Mark, one formula I have seen for calculating longest run of outs is :

'logarithm of 0.005 divided by the logarithm of the probability of failure'

(from Dick Mitchell in Winning Thoroughbred Strategies)

So in your example of 48% strike rate (0.48) the calculation becomes

LOG(0.005)/LOG(0.52) = 8.102314

To a certain extent the question as asked is a bit like 'how long is a piece of string' because the LRO for a given strike rate will increase as the number of bets increases. i.e. in your example the LRO over 500 bets would be 8 or 9 but for a sample of 10,000 bets the expected LRO would extend to 14.

I think the above formula should give you a fair approximation of LRO for your everyday use.

Regards,
Wun

Note : Probability of failure equals 1 minus the probability of success (your strike rate) so 1-0.48 gives the 0.52 used in the equation.

[gazman]

then the same formula can be used for the longest run of ins..cheers gaz..

[bletch]

Hi guys there is a site called puntingace.com where you can download a free program that will simulate any strike rate and give you the run of outs, and much more. It's a great little program and it's free

[darkydog2002]

An excellent programme isn.t it?

Well worth downloading alright.

Cheers.
darky.

[Bhagwan]

Please be aware that my program tells me that it could be laoded with Spyware.

One may have to verify this with the owners of the program.

[Shaun]

BHAGWAN....what program tells you that....some programs that scan for spyware regard anything they don't know as spyware.....this program is just a spread sheet with macros.....