How do you stop.............

[Stix]

All

I think I might be talking for a lot of you out there when I say........

"Had I stuck to my alloted bets for today I would be in front......",

..........but of course you start having a look at every other race and with the new found profit to try and compound the profit result for the day.........and you end up eroding the bank and waste all the good work done by Mav, Sportz, Will, XPT etc......... and yourself......

I have read in other threads and know that Kenchar has the discipline and Mark also has learned.......

How do you stop from looking outside your allocted bets......... I still profit from the punt, but still cave in a little to easily and dip out of my "For Fun bank" and in to my "Serious Bank"....

....any suggestions... other than "Toughen Up" !! lol !

Yours in Punting

Stix

[Desi]

Hey Stix...have the same problem....

Discipline and cutting down the bets if you are ahead early or walking away...

Cutting bets to a minimum and if there is a run of losses then again walk away early (maybe have a set max loss ratio...) but hey, Im the last to talk...starting to get on top of it but still could have walked away today with a better % profit...

Good luck mate!!

[BJ]

Why stop? The only time you need to stop is if you have no advantage.

There is nothing to suggest that because you have had a good run, that it will suddenly turn bad... Same goes for the opposite.

There was a similar thread a couple of months ago, and people were basically split on the idea.

My question is what is the limit? If you are $500 at some stage of the day, why stop? What is the difference between betting on the next race and waiting 3 weeks to have your next bet?
At some stage if you are going to have another bet, you will be risking some of that money.

I bet to a system, and as long as the bank continues to spiral upwards, I could care less about the end of days profits...

If you have faith in your selections and strategy and believe in its long term success, then I believe there is no argument to suggest that you will be financially better off stopping.

Sure sometimes, you might have had enough for the day. You figure you are up, so yeah turn off the radio, turn away and go and do something else.
But at the same time, I would suggest to do the same regardless of your position at any time of the day. If you need a break, have one.

Just remember, it is the long term success of your punting that matters, not day to day.

[mad]

Some sense in what BJ is saying Stix.

Losing is what deters me from having "another" go. I only bet if i am happy with my selections which i have decided upon before i get to TAB or log in etc. I place the bets and leave - get as far away as possible if needs be. If you're sitting around bored and having a punt for the sake of something to do then you have to make sure the temptation is not within reach. Losing and feeling like a jackass does it for me cos i really hate losing!

If your system selections are getting beaten then that's par for the course. If it's out of boredom and you're looking to find the winner in each race then get far away from all betting outlests as quick as you can. Otherwise you'll learn the hard way like me!

[DR RON]

BJ, you are right when you say that it shouldnt make any difference if your next bet is the next race or another three weeks later, however speaking from personal experience my profit margin (if there is one) always deteriorates asthe day goes by. The reason I put it down to is that my concentration levels probably deteriorate as the day goes by and therefore I am more succeptible to making bad decisions. If I was following a system then it obviously would not make a difference, however if you are looking at things on a race by race basis, then I think people lose concentration as time goes by, in my opinion.

[Mr ed]

I think where BJ's theory collapses is, there is not a standout selection in each race, maybe 1, 2, or 3 a day if your lucky so if your punting on races your not AS confident in, your profit (if any) from these races will most likely be less then that of your special selections. I do however agree that punting is one continuess program and if you have a valid selection you shouldn't dismiss it because you've already won or lost on that particular day. But Stix has a valid point it is very difficult to combat the urge to get on something you remember from somewhere just for interest. I can't profess to you how to dismiss this urge as i am no hypocrite. However the best advice i can give is try and minimalise the value of these bets as much as possible, nothing worse then having $100 on a $4.00 pop you thought was a good thing, then with the winnings having $100 on an odds on pop you are a bit iffy on.

[Stix]

Thnx Guys....

But I guess what I'm trying to say is not to stop betting for 2 days or 1 week or 3 weeks or when you have a "run of outs".... but when you have your targeted bets and have a profit and then just start having a "crack" at races/horses/meetings where you have not done any form/analysis and have a go and eat into your daily profit...

......i.e. I punt mainly on Melbourne, because thats where I am and have access to most of the information I use and only usually ever bet elsewhere when "the boys" (Mav, Sportz, XPT, Will, Mr Ed, Desi, Raw,.... you know who you are!) post something of interest on this forum........

.....But, you get a profit from your "confident" bets and then start looking at Upper Combucta West, where there is very limited form and quite honestly, you're just as well of as throwing a dart at the dart board...... and slowly, but surely you sart eating into your daily profit.....

.... I try and have a "Confident" Bank and a "For Fun Bank", but sometimes the line between the two is blurred by the lure of "more money"..... Just disipline to stick ONLY WITH YOU PRE-DETERMINED BETS is the ONLY ANSWER...... look I struggle with sticking to the shopping list...... so it's no supprise I guess !!!.... lol !

Just wondering if people have the same battle and if reformed...... what was the strategy..... I'd just like to keep a little more to keep the little lady happy...

Yours In Punting

Stix

(Now for a look at today's racing........Giddy Up)

[xanadu]

Stix,

When we have a good run we feel "invincible".......but!.....guess what?......we aren't. We punters are only as good as our last bet and we fall into the bad habits which we thought we had left behind.
I bet every day and usually have the self discipline to stop once I have achieved my target for the day.
However, there are times that I "give it all back" after being in front earlier in the day. This feeling of invincibility is sometimes fueled by Dr Tooheys in premature celebratory euphoria.
Don't forget that some of the most prolific punters that Australia has known have also fallen to having that one bet too many. The inimitable Don Scott who actually retired from the punt and pursued other paths ended up "doing the lot."

Cheers.

[gazman]

great ????????????? stix i'm sure most on here suffer at some point in the year..
i once asked aold bloke up north why he did not drink and his answer has stayed with me for years...ONE IS TO MANY AND A THOUSAND IS NOT ENOUGH.
CHEERS...GAZ..........

[mad]

Yeppers Stix m8,

You're gonna have to learn the hard way me thinks.
First up get the misses to do the shopping. Secondly remove all temptation, that will have to include your "for fun" bank i'm afraid, at least for a while. When you find yourself walking away with a very large bank then maybe go back to it.

Another way i find to really piss myself off is to count several times the amount i have won after each win, removing the original stake. Then after having a silly punt, i look down to see my pile of crisp shiny $50's or $20's diminishing and it really pisses me off. I learnt pretty quickly after that happened a coupla times!

[xanadu]

great ????????????? stix i'm sure most on here suffer at some point in the year..
i once asked aold bloke up north why he did not drink and his answer has stayed with me for years...ONE IS TO MANY AND A THOUSAND IS NOT ENOUGH.
CHEERS...GAZ..........
Gazman,

Yeah, that "aold"(sic) bloke that you spoke of may live a bit longer by abstaining.......or will it only seem longer........?

Cheers.

[Floydyboy]

If losing bothers you, you are betting too much...and you wont win while ever you have that attitude .... bet what you can afford to lose and be happy with the entertainment value ..........If you want to win on a regular basis you are going to have to commit yourself to the task be disciplined work hard at it and still be prepared to lose ....Many times I have bet with confidence only to have my selection flogged unmercifully ...................Personally Ive found that horses find too many ways to lose ............Its very hard to buck the system... favs win 33% of the time so your behind the 8ball befre you start if your backing favs ..........I prefer sports betting I find I get more winners that way but thats just me.I havent bet on a horse since this bloody ridiculous television dispute started .................................

Short answer :walk away

[kenchar]

Stix,
The only way I can suggest to help is do it the way I do, and that is set yourself a target you want to win on the day and stop.
In my case $400, but I nearly always finish up with more because of overs.
Some days the overs are very good say $650 up for the day, and if I feel like having a play around after getting my wages I will use a $100 and have $10 bets. The interesting thing about this is more often than not I will blow the $100 so just shows how my average day would pan out if I kept my normal size bet.
The only other way I can think of is to marry a filipina like I have and believe me you can't stop betting quick enough as there are more interesting things to do.
:rolleyes:

[Stix]

KenChar

Cheers..... enjoy your work.... !! lol !

Stix

[topsy99]

betting too much or too often is a problem most punters have and this is caused (i think) by not setting a benchmark for the bet you are about to make.

i must admit i dont over complicate my method but it helps a lot to reduce the activity. it means unless there is some value there no bet is made.

i have always said on this forum that i only backed listed or group horses.

i also said recently that i use the barrier as a guide.

i also use a weight adjustment figure to assist as well.

but in the absence of the weight adjustment figure the margin beaten could be used.

so step one listed horse
step two barrier
step three margin.

the price must exceed the sum total of barrier plus margin.

if it doesnt then no bet.

when giving examples it is often a bit rich to show only the examples that work but to illustrate the argument in race 6 at eagle farm today.

cha cha damour 6+6 = 12 price $13.20
casual chick 3 + 4.7 = 7.7 price was around 12/1

another factor is use is that i multiply the figure by the number of years since qualifying in a listed race. this is because 80% of all horses that are listed or group placed and win a race have qualified in the last 12 months.
this leaves only 20% for over 1 year and this drops to 5% if it is longer than 2 years.

so you can see the need to look for some value from these horses.

in case there is a query of the validity of listed qualifications of some brisbane horses i qualify horses that win the $50,000 races due to lower number of listed and group races in brisbane.
i need starters up there as the racing generally a treat compared to other states.
also sircolo in the first 2 + 1.8 and paid around $6.

this is how backed shania dane on saturday.
the price emphasised the value of the bet won group 3 last start barrier 1 john hawkes. 50/1 fairly tempting.

part of my problem with punting is that i used to know too much class of the horse this horse was better than that. barriers meant nothing.
good form was better than bad form and i believe this to be very true still
but knowing too much puts you off winners rather than on to them.

two or three good things come out of this method
1 . is that I let a lot of horses go due to shorter prices and wide barriers
2. i back recently performed horses more often unless they are long priced.
3. many days there are no bets.
4. i get better prices.
5. also betting on the racetab sites i also miss a lot of races due to the slowness of the site which mostly saves me money.
(couldnt help throwing that in) happened again today. fortunately the horse lost.

but set a benchmark and follow it patiently be prepared to let the races go that you havent measured.

it feels good to watch a race with horses in that you have consciously decided not to back and then watch them lose.

good punting.

[gazman]

hey xanadu and all
the reason why this stuck in my mind for so many years was it was one mans way of dealing with a situation where everyone does opposite (he probably had more meetings with Dr. Melbourne Bitter than the pope had in his confessional bay). (ps. stix - you would want to see what I pay for a carton of melbourne up here it's a double slab in Mav's terms - but hey, you get what you pay for. But there has to be something good to come out of Melbourne... lol).


cheers, gaz
great ????????????? stix i'm sure most on here suffer at some point in the year..
i once asked aold bloke up north why he did not drink and his answer has stayed with me for years...ONE IS TO MANY AND A THOUSAND IS NOT ENOUGH.
CHEERS...GAZ..........

[xanadu]

topsy, good post,

In my own form study I concentrate on class and beaten margins from last start, usually eliminating any runner beaten more than two lengths at it's previous run. Don't forget that it may have finished seventh, beaten 1.8 lengths in a 'blanket" finish........although the astute punter will recognise this as a very creditable run. This is the main flaw in mechanical selection methods which may stipulate: "must have finished no further back than fifth or sixth last start...", yet, the run indicated to the keen form student that it had "back me next start written all over it!"
I've taken note of your barrier position comments because recently I have fallen foul of backing horses in an outside barrier, believing that the skilful jockey on board could overcome this adversity, however, it is a big ask isn't it to be competitive after drawing the extreme outside and having to be "used up" to come over and take up a reasonable position.
Your comments on the SP also confirm that at "barrier rise" the prices being offered generally represent a true reflection of the particular runner's chances.

Cheers

[topsy99]

as we were saying.

barrier 1 won last start group 2.

off course we knew it couldnt win and it was first up and that all the other horses were better or did we know too much.

i take my $27 winner with thanks.

[Mr ed]

You took big unders topsy.

[topsy99]

i bet on the www.racetab website thats (worlds worst website) and take what it pays.
i am not sophisticated enough to chase odds.

did get another grandway shogun at good odds.
barrier one and beaten a length last start.

was a reasonable day so have to be happy with that.

i was really reflecting on the easy method that i explained earlier and that being too clever with our knowledge probably works against us.

missed out with life's a bounty though but only just.
regards

[Mr ed]

Yeh, SP was $41 it makes a huge difference at the end of the day. If you can get the very best odds available for every horse you back i think you will go a very long way to making a profit.

[Mark]

...and almost double that on Betfair!