Early Cup Thought

[ijuandaQLD]

Whats everyone thinkin about the cup? (Melbourne that is) Diva looks like she might not start but they might just be smokescreening. I like the look of the French horse Westerner but other than Vinnie internationals havent really performed well for a while. Whadaya u guys reckon

[Matilda]

Hi all,

Any of you know how to get the qualification status for CC, Cox and MC?
I like :
For CC : Confectioner and Grey Song
Cox : FOO and Lad of the manor
MC : Xcellent, Grey Song and Confectioner.

As of today...

[dundas lane]

Hi Matilda,

Conditions for the major races can be found at .......

www.racingvictoria.net.au

As for the current order of entry, no lists have been posted to my knowledge.


dundas lane ..............

[Tenacious Spirit]

Caulfield Cup: Tick By

Melbourne Cup: Accumulate/Diva if she runs

Cox: Ace

[Wortel]

Cox: Makaybe Diva
CC: Perlin. If Plastered is fit should grab this easy.
MC: Westerner

Good luck

[giggsy]

Have a few multis on already, most I'm sure will be dead come race day , but the receipt always looks good showing ridiculous odds. My favourites I put with some roughies were Makybe Diva and Grey's Inn for the Cox Plate, Confectioner and Dizelle for the Caulfield and Xcellent and Plastered for the big one. The Cox Plate should be a great race but I don't think Makybe Diva shows great value at about $3 at present. Fields of Omagh at $9 should go well. Wondering if anyone else thought Stormhill could figure up there in either the Caulfield or MC?

[Tenacious Spirit]

As far as sydney stayers go, stormhill, railings and high cee are the pick og the crop IMO

[Matilda]

Thanks Dundas Lane,

There is a ballot in CC and Mel Cup but not in Cox. Can the ballot be use as a guide?

Matilda.

[umrum]

Thanks Dundas Lane,

There is a ballot in CC and Mel Cup but not in Cox. Can the ballot be use as a guide?

Matilda.

As a rough guide. The club can include/exclude at their disgression. They left out Free at last last year which caused a huff. Also a few races allow horses excemption from the ballot so that can chane the ooe.

cheers

[jose]

VOUVRAY for one of the silverware races.

[Raw Instinct]

I like Lad of the Manor for the Cox plate right now loved the way he toughed it out in the Dato Tan Chin Nam after an good 1st up run, He is by Zabeel so it would look that maybe the 2040m is going to hold no fears not to mention I wouldn't think he would be to far off the pace which for the most part you can't be in the Cox Plate.


Caulfield Cup: Vouvray is ready to win this this year IMO she has reeled off 2 great runs in her 2 starts this prep and regardless of whether she is being aimed at the race or not.

Melbourne Cup: Vouvray again if she doesn't win the other then she will go mightily close in this one another I do like is Hawkes horse Railings if these 3 horses win though it will be a trifecta to Zabeel that would be interesting.

[BORDI]

excuse me raw

i think you are forgetting about a super mare by the name of makybe diva. to be 20 lengths back at the half way mark and to lose by the shortest of margins.. dont you think the extra 440m will suit her better??? if she could catch lad of the manor over the 1600, i think she will have a better sprint then lad over the 2040.....

[dundas lane]

Just noticed that the elimination order for both major cups are now available on the racingvictoria website.
The (xls) file is attached to the bottom of the news item, " Spring racing has an ace up the sleeve ".


dundas lane .............

[Raw Instinct]

For starters Bordi don't be surprised if there is about that much difference between them at some point in the Cox Plate She is probably going to have to come from a mile back where as I predict Lad of the Manor will most likely sit in the 1st half of the field. Every man and his dog wants to see Makybe Dive win the Cox Plate then the Melbourne Cup but I was looking for some value and took Lad at 13-1 I figured if he gets to the Cox Plate and actually races in it his form will most likely be to good for him to go out at those odds if he does though I will just load up again and have another shot.


Don't get me wrong I would not be against the Diva winning the Cox Plate but she will be running without mine on her mainly because her racing style is going to make it very hard for her to win the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley rarely do they come from very far back.

[ijuandaQLD]

ur right raw i definitely think makybe isnt a good thing because the plate is run at moonee valley. at any other track she would win because of the room she would get in the straight. thats exactly why i backed lad of the manor on the weekend yet i reckon bordis right bout the extra 440m. my money would have again been on the lad but for the extra distance. it might just find it out against a horse with the class of diva.

[timothy]

I watched last Saturday's race a few times and am sure Lad o.t. Manor beat M. Diva as a result of a smart/lucky ride from Childs and poor/unlucky one from Boss.
Childs got a nice break at the top pf the straight, such a vital advantage at the Valley while Boss was 4 wide towards the back of the field.
I think given "equal" runs Makybe Diva would have won by 1 1/2 lengths going away.
I think Childs is a great Valley jockey and it suits his ability to ride at/near the front and judge the pace well. Pity they are planning to pull him off the horse - could be a huge difference in the Plate.
Commendable but expensive loyalty?

[BORDI]

glenn boss will have learnt in regards to that ride. if makybe did not beat regal roller over 1400 a few weeks before than she will not have been the best backed coming into the 1600. the track is against her yes, however, the mare can do anything. boss has to sit just at the rear and not get too far back and if he does that she will win by at least 2 lengths. if ne1 wants to give me odds on 2 lengths ill take em lol. we must not forget a memorable run against one of the greatest horses in modern tym (elvstreom) where makybe smashed him over 2000m. the extra 40 is added bonus and as much of a super horse lad is, makybe is makybe.

does ne1 know if she is running in the caulfield? and if her melbourne cup run is certain yet? id lyk to jump on sportsbet if so. coz if she somehow doesnt win the cox, she will b quite hungry for the others..

[umrum]

glenn boss will have learnt in regards to that ride. if makybe did not beat regal roller over 1400 a few weeks before than she will not have been the best backed coming into the 1600. the track is against her yes, however, the mare can do anything. boss has to sit just at the rear and not get too far back and if he does that she will win by at least 2 lengths. if ne1 wants to give me odds on 2 lengths ill take em lol. we must not forget a memorable run against one of the greatest horses in modern tym (elvstreom) where makybe smashed him over 2000m. the extra 40 is added bonus and as much of a super horse lad is, makybe is makybe.

does ne1 know if she is running in the caulfield? and if her melbourne cup run is certain yet? id lyk to jump on sportsbet if so. coz if she somehow doesnt win the cox, she will b quite hungry for the others..


Ha ha, suicidal pace in both the Feehan and The Australian cup set it up for her. Look at her runs the years before, Delzao outplugged her and she was smashed in the aus cup. She's a champ and been a great horse to me betting wise but I wouldnt get too carried away. If the pace is moderate she will find it very hard to win the cox. She needs it turned right on at that distance, I actually like FOO and Lad is racing in great heart and if plastered comes up this spring dont count him out. On weights and times he just about would have won the cox last year.

cheers

[BORDI]

well if you feel lyk that then why does everyone state she needs wet tracks???? on good tracks the pace is naturally faster. it is her kick once she wants to go, doesnt matter what conditions, she usually finds the run. when a horse makes up 16 lengths to grand armee, who was one of australias greatest horses over the dist she beat him in, and 20 lengths over 800 against lad who is also a great horse, and unbeatable over track n dist, and we cant forget who she beat regal on his own track, conditions, and distance.


in my opinion, she will make up the ground from whereva she is in any race, however, being at the valley i feel the best ride for her would be boss to sit just off the 2nd last horse as king did against regal, bu i did lyk where she was against lad. she made he move b4 the straight n i personally thought she had him. give the extra 400m n i think she will snare him at the 200, maybe 100m mark n go on to win by at least 2 lengths. the only way she can possibly b beaten is by a front runner. and even then, she gets hungry.

[umrum]

well if you feel lyk that then why does everyone state she needs wet tracks???? on good tracks the pace is naturally faster. it is her kick once she wants to go, doesnt matter what conditions, she usually finds the run. when a horse makes up 16 lengths to grand armee, who was one of australias greatest horses over the dist she beat him in, and 20 lengths over 800 against lad who is also a great horse, and unbeatable over track n dist, and we cant forget who she beat regal on his own track, conditions, and distance.


in my opinion, she will make up the ground from whereva she is in any race, however, being at the valley i feel the best ride for her would be boss to sit just off the 2nd last horse as king did against regal, bu i did lyk where she was against lad. she made he move b4 the straight n i personally thought she had him. give the extra 400m n i think she will snare him at the 200, maybe 100m mark n go on to win by at least 2 lengths. the only way she can possibly b beaten is by a front runner. and even then, she gets hungry.


ha ha, since when has grand armee been our best over 2400m. He's only had two starts over that trip smashed in the caufield then a super run against makybe.

[BORDI]

elvstreom over 2000m? i think its fair to say that elv is rated higher then lad and makybe just about had him over 1600 and 1800m. we r now talking 2040. and regal over 1400m? not many better in modern time then him over that dist at that track and at those conditions.

if you feel so sure y dont u give me odds on makybe winning by 2???????? she in in the best condition shes been in and i believe she has barely pushed herself in this prep yet.

[umrum]

" when a horse makes up 16 lengths to grand armee, who was one of australias greatest horses over the dist she beat him in"

havent answered that.

I think she is a great chance to win just dont agree with a lot of your evidence or reasoning. Personally think foo might win again and just had a little nudge on studebaker at 200/1. Elvestrom does rate higher than lotm but dont get too carried away mate. She's no value @2/1. You'll get that on the day anyway.

[Raw Instinct]

This is in the response to the so called great ride by Greg Childs obviously he did alright cause Lad won the race but he lost position to FOO early on in the race when that horse went from being outside of him in the running to pulling back and going up inside of him and end up about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths in front of him. Coming to the turn Lad was posted about 4 maybe 5 wide at the 600 onwards with Makybe about 1 to 1 1/2 lengths behind him on the turn the margin was still similar until they straightened whne although you could see the Lad was buggered he had opened to about a 2 1/2 length lead and managed to hang on for the win.

When comparing the 2 horses you are comparing 2 completely different type of horses Lad is one best ridden to take a bit of a position early and have one dart at them at the end where as Makybe always goes straight out the back and thunders home she doesn't know any other way. I amnot saying she can't win the race I just feel that at the odds she is right now which are extremely **** poor I could find better betting options. What is to say that these horses will even make it to the race nothing saying that either one of them can't get hurt and not even end up contesting the race it happens all the time which makes anything less than about 7-1 fort any horse I don't care who it is ridiculos.

Like I said I backed Lad at 13-1 and am glad I did his odds willnot be anywhere near that come the day of the race if he is there that is a gamble I felt was worth while at worst I think Makybe Diva ends up being an odds on shot and I doubt that happens so $3 isn't that great a value and I certainly would not consider it value under any circumstances.

[BORDI]

she didnt just beat grand she smashed him. but i guess we will just wait and c. raw sed himself that lad was buggered by the end and another 400m is a long way to go, especially wen at the point lad was buggered makybe was just getting going. the only thing against makybe is the track but i feel she can overcome that. she will outsprint ne horse over a final 200m and that is evident as she came over the top of regal. odds are ridiculous but it only proves her worth. i have her at 3.20 and ill take it coz u may not see better. she may even hit that by the race if she runs the melb cup.

[Raw Instinct]

I will say one thing Bordi The Diva was gone at the 100 aswell if not she would have won the race I felt she had every chance to run the other 2 down nothing stopped her momentum at all and she wasn't put under pressure until after Lad of the Manor either.

[BORDI]

perhaps u should read the article that freedman and boss spoke in that was posted on the tab website raw. they stated that makybe diva was just getting going at the 50m mark. lad was good enuff to get that extra kick, the kick that regal couldnt hold and many of the others. but 400m extra is one giant kick he will need.

[Raw Instinct]

I totally disagree Bordi I have watched the race about 12 times tonight alone and she was leveling out at the 100 reckon she was probably tuly gone at the 50 when I say she had every chance sure she had to put in a big run to get there but the horses up front had to sit on a very hot pace aswell FOO got the absolute run of the race and he was gone at the 125 and there are no doubts at all about his ability to run the 2040 around the valley. These 3 horses were all 2nd up and will all derive improvement from there perspective runs will be a matter of who improves the most from here on out either way I just hope it is a great race.

[BORDI]

where do u watch these replays? is there a site u can download them from???

and i also think i would believe freedman n boss over you lol. but we all have our own opinions. as they also sed... she ran a soft and easy race n was not pushed by king against regal. thats saying something.

[Raw Instinct]

Mate because I have broadband I have access to the TVN site on line through bigpond which you have to be subscibed to aswell. I don't doubt what Freeman and Boss are saying but I would say in no way shape or form that she wasn't asked for an effort in either one of her races King was getting into her for all he was worth as he should have to it wasn't like he will ever get to ride her again.

[brave chief]

I backed Lad of the Manor in the Cox Plate @ $26 a few hours before his first up win on NSW TAB. I was quite impressed with his performances last prep & his first attempts at WFA. If they put Johns back on though, it might cost them dearly.

I've also backed Binding @ $26 in the Caulfield Cup (looks a wasted bet now) @ $35 in the Cox. This horse has G1 wins in him imo, & I'm convinced he's a real stayer. Its obvious now Hawkes is aiming at the Epsom first, but hopefully he'll run in the Cox at least after that.

I wanted to back Vouvray in the Melbourne Cup on Saturday @ $15, but forgot to put my bet on before the Feehan. Stupid, stupid price now, so I missed the boat there.

[Sportz]

I backed Lad of the Manor in the Cox Plate @ $26 a few hours before his first up win on NSW TAB. I was quite impressed with his performances last prep & his first attempts at WFA. If they put Johns back on though, it might cost them dearly.


I think that's the plan, and let's face it. One of the biggest races in Australia, who would you rather have your money on? Boss or Johns???

[Sportz]

I wanted to back Vouvray in the Melbourne Cup on Saturday @ $15, but forgot to put my bet on before the Feehan. Stupid, stupid price now, so I missed the boat there.

Yeah, I must admit I haven't really been a big Vouvray fan, but plenty of 'experts' are picking it, so I'm starting to look at it. At $15, it wasn't too bad I guess, but you'll probably be able to get $10 on the day, so I wouldn't touch that.

[Raw Instinct]

To be honest I love Vouvray as a Cups horse and I still wouldn't have taken the 15's about her she is very under appreciated by alot of punters and with a bit of luck some of the hype horses will be in there and jack the prices up for everything else.

[jose]

I reckon she (VOUVRAY) will steal on of the drinking vessel races this year.
Should be a fair price too.

[Matilda]

Caulfield Cup

1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) (Lee Freedman) 7 m 58.0 [2.5] 02-Nov-2004 1st-G1-3200m Emirates-Melbourne Cup AUS
2= CHERRY MIX (FR) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5 h 58.5 [0.5] 03-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Arc De Triomphe FR
2= NORSE DANCER (IRE) (David Elsworth) 6 h 58.5 [0.5] 23-Jul-2005 2nd-G1-2419m King George VI Stakes UK
4 BANDARI (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 7 h 58.0 wfa 18-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m Hardwicke Stakes UK
5 MUMMIFY (Lee Freedman) 6 g 57.0 1.0 15-May-2005 1st-G1-2000m SAI Cup SING
6= FIELDS OF OMAGH (David Hayes) 8 g 56.5 1.5 23-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2040m W.S. Cox Plate AUS
6= GREYS INN (USA) (Mike de Kock) 5 h 56.5 1.5 24-Apr-2005 2nd-G1-2000m Queen Elizabeth II Cup HK
8= DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 4 m 51.5 2.5 30-Mar-2005 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
8= FIRST CHARTER (GB) (David Hayes) 6 g 55.5 2.5 18-Sep-2004 3rd-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
8= HOLLOW BULLET (John McArdle) 4 m 51.5 2.5 04-Nov-2004 1st-G1-2500m VRC Oaks AUS
8= PLASTERED (Lindsey Smith) 4 g 54.0 2.5 30-Oct-2004 1st-G1-2500m Victoria Derby AUS
8= SUPER KID (NZ) (John Moore) 6 g 55.5 2.5 30-May-2004 1st-$678,656-2400m Champions Chater Cup HK
8= XCELLENT (NZ) (Michael Moroney) 4 g 54.0 2.5 26-Dec-2004 1st-G1-2400m New Zealand Derby NZ
14 RAZKALLA (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 8 g 55.0 3.0 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m Dubai Sheema Classic UAE
15 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 7 h 54.5 3.5 30-May-2005 1st-G2-3300m Henry II Stakes UK
16= DEMERGER (Danny O'Brien) 5 m 51.5 4.0 16-May-2005 1st-G1-3200m Adelaide Cup AUS
16= EYE POPPER (JPN) (Izumi Shimizu) 6 h 54.0 4.0 01-May-2005 3rd-$418,670-3200m Tenno Sho JPN
16= PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) (Neville McBurney) 5 m 51.5 4.0 13-Jun-2005 1st-G1-3200m Brisbane Cup AUS
16= SONGLARK (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 6 g 54.0 4.0 19-Jun-2005 1st-LR-2400m Pontefract Castle Stakes UK
16= STELLA GRANDE (Lee Freedman) 4 g 52.5 4.0 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m AJC Derby AUS
16= VOUVRAY (NZ) (Peter G Moody) 5 m 51.5 4.0 25-Jun-2004 1st-G1-2400m QLD Oaks AUS
16= WILD IRIS (Guy Walter) 5 m 51.5 4.0 14-Apr-2004 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
23= COUNT RICARDO (Stephen Theodore) 4 g 52.0 4.5 13-Nov-2004 1st-G2-2400m Sandown Classic AUS
23= ECONSUL (NZ) (Graeme Rogerson) 4 h 52.0 4.5 09-Oct-2004 1st-G1-1600m Caulfield Guineas AUS
23= IKE'S DREAM (John Hawkes) 5 m 51.0 4.5 18-Dec-2004 1st-G2-1600m Villiers Handicap AUS
23= IRISH DARLING (Tony Vasil) 4 m 49.5 4.5 07-May-2005 1st-G1-2031m Australasian Oaks AUS
23= PERLIN (NZ) (Graeme Rogerson) 6 g 53.5 4.5 28-May-2005 1st-G1-2200m Doomben Cup AUS
28= BATTLE MAIDEN (ZIM) (Grahame Begg) 6 m 50.5 5.0 03-Jul-2004 1st-G1-1600m Garden Province Stakes SAF
28= BAZELLE (NZ) (Paul Jenkins) 6 m 50.5 5.0 01-Jan-2005 1st-G1-3200m Auckland Cup NZ
28= CARTE DIAMOND (USA) (Brian Ellison) 5 h 53.0 5.0 06-Nov-2004 1st-$83,373-2400m November Stakes UK
28= DESERT WAR (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g 53.0 5.0 02-Oct-2004 1st-G1-1600m Epsom Handicap AUS
28= FANTASTIC LOVE (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 6 h 53.0 5.0 06-Nov-2004 1st-G2-2500m Queen Elizabeth Stakes AUS
28= LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) (John Morrisey) 4 g 51.5 5.0 11-Jun-2005 1st-G1-2400m Queensland Derby AUS
28= MAHTOUM (Kim Waugh) 6 g 53.0 5.0 02-Apr-2005 1st-G1-3200m Sydney Cup AUS
28= NATURAL BLITZ (Doug Harrison) 6 h 53.0 5.0 04-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m O'Shea Stakes AUS
28= NEVIS (NZ) (David Payne) 4 m 49.0 5.0 03-Sep-2005 1st-G2-1600m Chelmsford Stakes AUS
28= SIR DEX (Gregory Hickman) 5 g 53.0 5.0 14-May-2005 1st-G2-2400m Prime Ministers Cup AUS


Melbourne Cup
1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) (Lee Freedman) 7 m 58.0 [+2.0] $9,044,910 02-Nov-2004 1st-G1-3200m Emirates-Melbourne Cup AUS
2 WESTERNER (GB) (Elie Lellouche) 7 h 58.5 wfa $1,728,975 16-Jun-2005 1st-G1-4000m Ascot Gold Cup UK
3 CHERRY MIX (FR) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5 h 58.5 wfa $898,643 03-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Arc De Triomphe FR
4 VINNIE ROE (IRE) 8H (Dermot Weld) 8 h 58.0 0.5 $1,660,209 02-Sep-2004 1st-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
5 BANDARI (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 7 h 58.0 0.5 $612,785 18-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m Hardwicke Stakes UK
6 YEATS (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 5 h 57.5 1.0 $631,742 03-Jun-2005 1st-G1-2400m Coronation Cup UK
7 MUMMIFY (Lee Freedman) 6 g 57.0 1.5 $4,184,020 17-Apr-2004 3rd-G1-3200m Sydney Cup AUS
8 GREYS INN (USA) (Mike de Kock) 5 h 56.5 2.0 $1,149,893 08-May-2004 1st-G2-2450m S A Derby SAF
9 DISTINCTION (IRE) (Michael Stoute) 7 g 56.5 2.0 $456,511 28-Jul-2005 1st-G2-3200m Lady O Goodwood Cup UK
10 SWEET STREAM (ITY) (John Hammond) 6 m 53.5 2.5 $723,622 12-Sep-2004 1st-G1-2400m Prix Vermeille Fouquet FR
11 SUPER KID (NZ) (John Moore) 6 g 55.5 3.0 $2,512,133 30-May-2004 1st-$678,656-2400m Champions Chater Cup HK
12 PLASTERED (Lindsey Smith) 4 g 54.0 3.0 $1,453,840 30-Oct-2004 1st-G1-2500m Victoria Derby AUS
13 HOLLOW BULLET (John McArdle) 4 m 51.5 3.0 $1,386,802 04-Nov-2004 1st-G1-2500m VRC Oaks AUS
14 DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 4 m 51.5 3.0 $688,040 30-Mar-2005 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
15 XCELLENT (NZ) (Michael Moroney) 4 g 54.0 3.0 $434,934 26-Dec-2004 1st-G1-2400m New Zealand Derby NZ
16 FIRST CHARTER (GB) (David Hayes) 6 g 55.5 3.0 $314,628 18-Sep-2004 3rd-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
17 RAZKALLA (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 8 g 55.0 3.5 $992,916 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m Dubai Sheema Classic UAE
18 SIMONAS (IRE) (Andreas Wohler) 7 h 55.0 3.5 $885,422 24-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Canadian International CAN
19 COLLIER HILL (GB) (Alan Swinbank) 8 h 55.0 3.5 $666,587 01-May-2005 1st-G2-2400m Gerling-Preis GER
20 FRANKLINS GARDENS (GB) (Mark Tompkins) 6 h 54.5 4.0 $280,559 13-May-2005 1st-G2-2800m Yorkshire Cup UK
21 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 7 h 54.5 4.0 $267,958 30-May-2005 1st-G2-3300m Henry II Stakes UK
22 EYE POPPER (JPN) (Izumi Shimizu) 6 h 54.0 4.5 $2,197,945 01-May-2005 3rd-$418,670-3200m Tenno Sho JPN
23 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) (Neville McBurney) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $774,700 13-Jun-2005 1st-G1-3200m Brisbane Cup AUS
24 VOUVRAY (NZ) (Peter G Moody) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $732,418 19-Mar-2005 3rd-G1-2400m Tancred Stakes AUS
25 DEMERGER (Danny O'Brien) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $674,000 16-May-2005 1st-G1-3200m Adelaide Cup AUS
26 STELLA GRANDE (Lee Freedman) 4 g 52.5 4.5 $604,175 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m AJC Derby AUS
27 WILD IRIS (Guy Walter) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $585,460 14-Apr-2004 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
28 OSTANKINO (FR) (Elie Lellouche) 5 h 54.0 4.5 $395,710 10-Jul-2005 1st-G2-2800m Prix Maurice de Nieuil FR

[luv2bet]

VOUVRAY, VINNIE ROE. THE YEAR OF THE VEEEES!!!!!!

[william]

Vouvray

[Raw Instinct]

I would be happy to be proven wrong Luv2bet but I think Vinnie might just have had his chance last year geez that won cost me my biggest bet ever I have never been more confident even more so when all that rain came a tumbling.

[Matilda]

Hope you guys can share with me info on Vouvray.
He has never race above 2400 before. Only won once out of 3 at 2400 and that was last year June at Eagle Farm.

Any opinion on Free at Last.
Like his run in Craiglee last up.

[jose]

Matilda, VOUVRAY ran a slashing 4th in the CC last year and Peter Moody the trainer put her away after that with a view to this years cups. To give her time to mature. She won a Qld oaks over 2400m, which is a Group 1.
It looks like P Moody may have been right, as she seems to have come back better than ever.
Don't know a great deal about the other one sorry.

[umrum]

Hope you guys can share with me info on Vouvray.
He has never race above 2400 before. Only won once out of 3 at 2400 and that was last year June at Eagle Farm.

Any opinion on Free at Last.
Like his run in Craiglee last up.


Free at last is a good honest mare. In my opinion she is only up to G2 company and I was expecting a big run in the craiglee. She will struggle from here on in, in top company. However I feel she is a rough place chance for the CC, almost no chance in a melb cup for mine. She also has a great trainer of stayers in Alan Matthews which can only help.

[Matilda]

Thanks Jose and Umrum.

[Raw Instinct]

Agree with you Umrum on Free at Last think it might be a bit better suited to the country cups than the big ones could sneak a place in a caulfield cup but i wouldn't be putting my house on it.

[Duritz]

I did form for the 3 big ones just the other day, projecting them forward using the Expertform ratings.

On their figures, this is what I found for the horses I liked:

Accumulate - will peak at 119, has 50 both Cups. I like it over the 3200, I reckon at this point it looks very hard to beat. Rated 114 the other day, that was a stayers run for SURE. Trainer knows something about the big race too....

Confectioner - peak probably 122, very well in Caulfield Cup with 52.5. If he does 122 in Caul (rated 117 1st up winning, natural 122 peak then on the 5 point theory), if he does 122 in Caul with 52.5, he wins it.

Vouvray - will peak at 118, has 51.5 both Cups. Keen on her in Caulfield too. 118 will go very, very close with 51.5. Obviously set for it, goes well there.

Dizelle - will peak at 119, has 51.5 both Cups, better suited the Melbourne Cup, pretty sure she'll do 119 there, however gives Accumulate 1.5 kgs.

M.Diva - 126, but with 58 kgs I reckon she'll get beat. In fact, I don't reckon she'll run in the melbourne. If she does, I think they've stopped her. However, she's almost over the line in the Cox. There's only one horse that can beat her: Super Kid from Hong Kong. On the expertform ratings he has rated solid 120's over there and has once gone 125. That's massive. Makye Diva is the best in Aus with 126, the next best currently racing is only about 123 or less. Might even be 120 now with Grand Armee retired.

Lotteria - has a 120 coming someday. That puts her in most Cox plates very nicely (54.5 kgs WFA 4yo mare), however this year's could rate very high and her 120 might still get beat!

That's my thoughts.

Cheers.

[Stix]

VOUVRAY (Peter Moody) sts: 17 w: 3 pl: 5

Won the Queensland Oaks in 2004.

Ran a good 4th in the Caulfield Cup but lacked maturity to race in the Big one....... so she has been saved this year and has has been trained for the last 12 months with one race in mind............ and only has 51.5kg.

“.......... She is more mature this preparation, so I can give her the work she needs to be ready for the Melbourne Cup,” he said.

She goes round this Saturday in the Turnball.....

Yours In Punting

Stix

[Duritz]

Yeah she's really well in isn't she. Her and another mare, Dizelle, to quinella it!!

I hope she wins the Caulfield first, Vouvray that is, then attracts a 1kg penalty for the Melb and Dizelle knocks her off in that. That'd be great because I've taken that double!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[umrum]

matilda beadman is on railings in the metrop

[Raw Instinct]

After the run by Lad of the Manor today I am more confident than ever that he can win the Cox plate he showed there today he can run 2000m at a track that wouldn't suit him at that distance Makybe will have to be within a couple of lengths of him at the Valley to beat him I am going to cop plenty for this but the best horse doesnot always win the Cox Plate if you want to know why have a look at the layout of the racetrack Lad will be in the 1st couple regardless of the barriers she will be out the back.


I am putting my head on the chopping block and don't do it very often Lad of the Manor will win the Cox Plate fire away.

[Sportz]

matilda beadman is on railings in the metrop

Is that Darren's sister? :D

[BORDI]

raw raw raw...

u once told me in an earlier post that makybe wouldnt do much in the making up ground department against lad but i think today proved it. king stated he didnt even push the mare. what does that say???? she is the greatest.

[Raw Instinct]

Bordi today was at Flemington not Moonee Valley there is an enormous difference between the 2 tracks but it doesn't take a genius to work that out. I have never once said that Makybe Diva isn't a good horse in fact she might be the best I have seen I am simply saying she is trying to win a race that doesn't suit her racing style she cannot stand the leader up 20 lengths or anything close to that in a Cox Plate and win it it is to tight a track up against the best of company. If you think I am trying to have a go at you take a horse like Lonhro a horse who in his own right a champion (I would never use that word to describe him but plenty have) he was beating Defier in every race they went against eachother there 2 years ago and beating him pointlessly then come Cox Plate day not only couldn't he get past Defier he couldn't get past Fields of Omaugh either.


Like I said it isn't always the best horse that wins this race it is usually the horse that gets the best run that wins it have a look at the last few winners Savabeel was in the 1st 3, Fields of Omaugh was in the 1st 3, Northerly was in the 1st 3 from memory as was Sunline that takes up a few years there my memory isn't the greatest so I can't really go any further back then that but all I am trying to say is she could be set mission impossible to win the race and I feel that given his racing style Lad of the Manor has me brimming with confidence right now.

If Makybe finishes in the placings in the Cox Plate I still think she might be the best horse I have seen if she wins it doing what she normally does she definitely is it would be no mean feat to win a race like this concedeing alot of ground to some very good horses around the tightest major race track in Australia at WFA conditions.

[mad]

Will you eat your hat if she places Raw?

[Oaksnaf]

I like the way Raw thinks and will be backing Lad of the Manor for Cox Plate at handy $11 fixed odds return.

Then Lad of the Manor with about 5 other horses for the Cox-Cup double. Makybe Diva, PLastered, Vouvrey, Xcellent, Dizzle

And will probably do the same with Plastered to win the Caufield for a Caufield-Melb Cup double with the above and more horses.

[Raw Instinct]

Mad it wouldn't surprise me to see her place but she is going to have to be every single bit as good as everyone thinks she is and a hell of alot more to win this race I just think these other horses are a hell of alot better than anyone has given them credit for. I won't say that I will be happy to be wrong because I won't but if I am and she wins atleast I was beaten by a horses that few of us have seen a better one.

[mad]

I'm only stirrin' ya Raw.

I actually liked your assessment and think it has merit. The only concern i would have is if she has been set for this race then perhaps the connections will have thought of this already. As a result they might ride her a little closer to the pace than usual, say midfield, three wide if needs be and use her blistering finish to come over the top. Otherwise, i agree with your previous assessment, it will be very difficult to win on such a tight track from so far back. However if ever there was a horse to do it, i'd back her.

As you can see i am a big Diva fan, go the Diva!

[Duritz]

Raw your points are sound but forgetting one important point: Cox plate field will probably only have 9 horses in it. Even if she's last, she'll only give him 6 lengths max in the run, unless they go real quick in front (and if they do that, she bolts in). What is likely anyway is that they will try to settle her about 5th-6th in the run. They're not idiots, they're not going to conceded 20 lengths to lad of the manor and try to run him down, not to mention Fields of Omagh (who I think is as good a Cox plate chance as the Lad). What's likely is Lotteria will lead if in the field, Fields and Lad sit about 2nd and 3rd each, about 1 length off speed, she sits 6th-7th at worst, 5 off speed. Down the side, they coax her forward so she's within 1-2 lens off them on the bend. That's how they'll ride her. Reason: they're setting her for this race. They weren't setting her for the Feehan, that's why they put her to the tail. Even in her Melbourne Cup runs, she settles midfield.

Then, in the straight, with the weight pull on the top two and more ability, the result will be a foregone conclusion.

HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!

(and this is a big however)

There are two horses who can beat her, even if that all happens as listed above. Super Kid and Greys Inn are both extremely good horses, both of them better than Lad and Fields of Omagh. That is unquestionable. They are both better horses than Fields and Lad. They could quinella it.

[Raw Instinct]

I will say that I feel it will most likely be an 11 horse field something along the lines of.

1. Super Kid
2. Fields of Omagh
3. Lad of the Manor
4. Greys Inn
5. Xcellent
6. Mummify
7. Perlin
8. Confectioner ????
9. Makybe Diva
10. Lotteria ?
11. Hotel Grand

that is a rough layout of what could be the field I amnot sure if Confectioner is going that way or to the Caulfield Cup I also have doubts that they will take Lotteria to the Cox aswell but it is hard to tell really. Desert War could go this way and I amnot sure if Activation would make the field but it is another chance Binding was another who had a chance but I doubt he would get into the field on recent efforts

[Sportz]

Possibly God's Own as well.

I expect him to go well in the Guineas next week (in fact I expect him to win it now that I chose Dream Ballad for my stable instead of him :rolleyes: ) and he could then be a starter at the Valley and a good chance.

[brave chief]

I'm more than happy where Wild Iris is at present

[Duritz]

I might be wrong but I thought I heard that Hotel Grand was heading to the Cox Plate after it's win on the weekend.

[Tenacious Spirit]

This weekend has finally cemented something for me. Makybe is a defier. She will defy logic. You can try and quantify the situation and state cases as to why she won;t win but when it comes to the crunch she always seems to defy logic and win anyway.

It is not a 2 horse race. Horses don;t go round in a cox plate to make up numbers - they are all there to win. Heres the scenario. Fully wound up at there utmost peak fitness, makybe is a superior animal to lad of the manor. Full stop. Therefore, going on a nose loss to lad when they wern;t peaking then makybe beats him at their peaks. If anything beats her it is one of the internationals. I don't think you can discount mummify, if you go along the pace bias theme.

[mad]

Yep, I'll be the first to admit Hotel Grand was the surprise for me at the weekend. Not sure if he'll handle the next step to the Cox plate yet Duritz. Some really stiff opposition there, wouldn't rate him a chance at all in that. The Guineas is his best bet and judging by Bookmakers fixed odds markets (if that's any guide) he'll run at Caulfield next weekend. He's a chance in that.

[Absolute Unit]

Raw your points are sound but forgetting one important point: Cox plate field will probably only have 9 horses in it. Even if she's last, she'll only give him 6 lengths max in the run, unless they go real quick in front (and if they do that, she bolts in). What is likely anyway is that they will try to settle her about 5th-6th in the run. They're not idiots, they're not going to conceded 20 lengths to lad of the manor and try to run him down, not to mention Fields of Omagh (who I think is as good a Cox plate chance as the Lad). What's likely is Lotteria will lead if in the field, Fields and Lad sit about 2nd and 3rd each, about 1 length off speed, she sits 6th-7th at worst, 5 off speed. Down the side, they coax her forward so she's within 1-2 lens off them on the bend. That's how they'll ride her. Reason: they're setting her for this race. They weren't setting her for the Feehan, that's why they put her to the tail. Even in her Melbourne Cup runs, she settles midfield.

Then, in the straight, with the weight pull on the top two and more ability, the result will be a foregone conclusion.

HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!

(and this is a big however)

There are two horses who can beat her, even if that all happens as listed above. Super Kid and Greys Inn are both extremely good horses, both of them better than Lad and Fields of Omagh. That is unquestionable. They are both better horses than Fields and Lad. They could quinella it.i agree with duritz that the small field will mean diva wont have to come 10 wide round the turn and she wont be 20lengths off them.

i would like to know why you feel super kid and greys inn r better than lad n fields?

The knockout horse, if he starts, is confectioner.
i thought his run was enormous to come flying home with the diva when he got smashed at the top of the straight.

[ijuandaQLD]

i dont know, absolute. i have never ever thought confectioner was a horse that could win a race like the cox plate. i think the horse is too soft and even though i agree with u that its run on the weekend was good i dont think it can win a cox plate. also if it is to win they will have to position the horse a lot better than on the weekend. there is no way it can come from behind makybe to win.....no horse in the race will.

[Absolute Unit]

yeah i know.

i was just really impressed by confectioners run, i still reken the diva will win but if something goes wrong confectioner could run a good race.

makybe diva will win by a long neck just beating lad of the manor. lad will be 2 in front at the turn and the diva will pick him up just in time.

[Duritz]

Hi absolute, re Super kid and Greys Inn, here's their profiles:

Super Kid:

20-4-4-0

Most recent three wins have been:

18-01-2004 Group 1 1600m at Shatin carrying 57.3 kgs, beating Hidden Dragon and Bowman's crossing. Hidden Dragon is a Group 3 winner and is group 2 and 1 placed, Hidden Dragon placed in Group 1's multiple times.

30-05-2004 Group 1 2400m at Shatin carrying 57.3 again, beating River Dancer and Elegant Fashion. (the aussie). Both of those horses are group 1 winners in their own right, and both multiple group 2 winners.

11-02-05 Premier (top Group 1 events in HK) winner in HK beating the Duke and Magnifier, both either Group 1-2 winners or placegetters in their own right.


Greys Inn has only had one HK run, running 2nd to Vengeance of Rain beaten 0.5 lengths. He is a multiple group 1 winner in SAf. Thatday he ran 2nd in HK, Super Kid ran 4th.

Super Kid's run at Caulfield was enormous. 1400m is too short for him, 1600m++ is where he warms up yet first run in Australia he charges home, strongest on line to fail by less than a length behind Barely A Moment, who previous start had run Makybe Diva to a head giving her about 3 kgs weight.

Lad of the Manor has not won a Group 1. He has won three Group 2's but he is arguably at the top of his game right now. Doubt there's any more improvement in him, whereas Super Kid does have improvement, and as I said, Super Kid has won 3 Group 1s.

That's why they're better horses.

[Raw Instinct]

Duritz to be perfectly honest with you I am more worried about Greys Inn and Super Kid than I am about anyone else that could be in the race. The race in HK when Greys Inn ran Vengance of Rain to a half length did he come from off the speed or was he sitting right there on the pace I honestly cannot remember and for some reason I thought he flashed home.

[Sportz]

makybe diva will win by a long neck just beating lad of the manor. lad will be 2 in front at the turn and the diva will pick him up just in time.

We'll hold you to that.

[Duritz]

Made ground, Raw. Came from 9th early, 8th turn. Very strong and was picking the winner up well on the line. They both went very well, were both strong on the line and both pulling away. Would love to see the sectionals, would think greys inn's finals would be very impressive.

That impressed me as a very, very high strength race. The way they went, both of them bolting strongly on the line I thought my God they're going well. Two very good horses.

I personally think Greys is a better horse than Super Kid, but Super Kid's run at the 1400m 1st up was enormous for a miler. For me that proves the quality.

The expert form ratings have them really strong too. Both of them rate better than all the Aussie chances, except for the Diva of course, but I seriously doubt her 126 rating can be reproduced at 2040m. I suspect she is an absolute max of about 122-3 that trip. Best she's ever done career so far that trip is 121 winning the Australia Cup. That may actually be her 2000m max. If it is, she's very vulnerable to the HK raiders. However here 121 will beat Fields and Lad if she repeats it, Fields best rating is 121 winning his Cox plate, Lad rated about 120 or so in the Feehan. They give her weight, of course, which would be the difference.

Super Kid has a 125 in HK and regular 121's. Greys Inn rated 123 behind Vengeance that day. If he goes 123 in Cox, it's over.

For your interest - Might and Power rated 127 in the Caul Cup. He's the best they've rated. Initially they thought Super Impose rated 128 but it was only about 124 when he won his Epsom.

[Starcraft]

Every year I've picked the best looking import and it's done the best out of them. It certainly doesn't work with Australian horses, but with the imports, they seem to race as good as they look. To test this theory I will let you know once I've seen them who my pick is. I would really upset a year or 2 ago they had this gorgeous chestnut over here i THOUGHT for the melbourne cup. He raced in a couple of group 1's and never really made any impression, but I would really have liked to have seen him in the big one.

[Tenacious Spirit]

That would be sound thinking if they were robots and ran according to an input pad where you typed in todays run hash 123, but unfortunately it is a race between animals.

[Matilda]

Possibly God's Own as well.

I expect him to go well in the Guineas next week (in fact I expect him to win it now that I chose Dream Ballad for my stable instead of him :rolleyes: ) and he could then be a starter at the Valley and a good chance.


Sportz,
I am expecting Perfectly Ready to go well in the Guineas. Average barrier, good and regular jockey. Any comment. Like his last race when lost to Gonski as he was blocked for a run at 200m and zoom up once clear.

[Duritz]

Tenacious - yep that's exactly right, they are flesh and blood. That's why we have odds. However those animals have ability, and some have none at all (I own one like that), and that ability can be quantified.

[angel417]

Cant agree with much of what has been said on this thread.Cant agree that the diva is a certainty either,as time eternal has proven over and over there are no certainties in racing.Freedman has said all along that he has set her specifically for the Cox and does NOT want to run her in the Cup.As a 7yo mare IMO she would be hard pressed to win it anyway.Going up 1200mtrs in such a short space of time would also be against her,especially if she has to do it tough in the Cox,and dont forget she has got 58kgs.IMO she will not run,at least if the owner does listen to the trainer!!Dont know what path Mike Moroney is going to take with Xcellent,but if it runs in the Cox it will go very close,it has an enormous turn of foot,which only top notch horses have.I know it failed it its only run in Aus,but the track conditions did not suit.Anyone who has seen its 2 wins since resuming would have be blind not to give it a top chance.IMO it is the only possible danger to the Diva,and IMO it will beat her.Foo is past it now,Lad of wont blow wind up their butts when the chips are down,and as for all the ranting and raving about the HK imports,can you name me one from there that has cut the mustard in AUS???

As for the Caulfield Cup,It is a great race for 4yo horses,so I am looking at Dizelle,Hollow Bullet,Xcellent,Stella Grande.

Melbourne Cup is a good race for 4,5 and 6yo.

Cant narrow them right down until final fields and lots of form study of course,but have got some fairly huge doubles going already from a while ago.Hopefully some will make it to the field,let alone win!!!

[wanger97]

Hey hows it going guys, im new to this thread

Duritz i was wonderin what rating does Eye Popper have at the moment, i see he ran a good 4th when the diva ran in 7th, somewhere in hong kong i think it was

thanks

[Raw Instinct]

I exhausted my opinion on this thread but this is about the last thing I will say

Cox Plate: Lad of the Manor (we will see on the day who is blowing wind up whose ass won't we), Greys Inn & Mummify I amnot saying that Makybe Diva can't win nor do I say that Xcellent won't win either but they have one hell of a job ahead of them.

Caulfield Cup: This is a race that if you run it 10 times you might end up with 10 different winners the runners look so closely bunched it is hard to seperate them. I like Vouvray, Sir Dex, Portland Singa & maybe Railings although I do feel that Railings is a better shot in the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup: Who knows right now Makybe Diva if she goes here is an obvious chance but will be doing it without my money this year 58kgs and the step up in distance have to put some doubt there. Railings is the one for me he has stayer written all over him by Zabeel out of a Palace Music mare I can see no reason why he can't run the 2 miles but he does also seem to have a bit of a turn of foot. I have not picked anything else really as I don't feel I have seen any good 2 milers outside of the 2 I mentioned Vouvray, Sir Dex and Portland Singa maybe chances but I wouldn't be taking anything short about them running 2 miles. Plastered has to be a big hope but if I was on here to tip the favs to everyone then it would become awful boring so I just try and make a case why something that is value has a chance or can win I will let you work the rest out.

[Absolute Unit]

The Caufield cup is looking like this to me:

My current trifecta is(in order): Mr Celebrity, El Segundo and Sir Dex

Mr Celebrity: Very talented horse winning the george Main & fav 4 the epsom. He is only going to get better over more ground which is scary as he is one of the top milers going round

El Segundo: great form around Makybe Diva then won easily beating a good field, form has since been proven with show barry winning well in the cran cup.

Sir Dex: Underated horse which keeps running great races, due for a win soon and i think the cup is it

Mr C is huge value now at $26. Anyone know if he is being targetted at the caufield cup?????
I would like to know if he is going to start or not b4 i jump at him.

[Raw Instinct]

Everything I have heard recently basically said that El Segundo will not be racing in the Caulfield Cup not sure whether that had to do with order of entry or whether they just didn't want to take him to that race this year. If he goes to the Cup then he is a chance ofcourse. Mr. Celebrity is supposed to be being aimed at the Cox Plate so I would seriously doubt if that is the case it will be running in the Caulfield Cup and besides Waterhouse doesn't exactly have a stellar record in melbourne who knows though could be about to change I for one certainly would never wish any luck on the woman the best thing about Melbourne Racing is that she sucks there when she is there, Not to mention her horses are usually drastically overrated and blow the prices of everything else out.


Just to set the record straight Absolute Truth I amt bagging your selections I can't be bothered doing that anymore however I am just saying what I have heard and if true those 2 horses would be less than 50% chances of even being in the race. As far as the Waterhouse thing goes sorry if your a fan I cannot stand her have not and will not back anything she ever trains probably the reason I don't bet to much in sydney I guess.

I should add that Sir Dex will definitely be in the Caulfield Cup atleast if your looking at fixed odds and give him a chance you won't be throwing your money away on something that will not even be there on the day.

[Duritz]

Re the question about HK horse's cutting the mustard - in the last 5 years virtually none have come across. One that does spring to mind though is Cape of Good Hope...... goes OK, beat a little horse called Spark of Life (dual Manikato winner) amongst others.

In the Caulfield Cup, if Caulfield track is dry and Confectioner gets a run and a reasonable barrier draw (very important) he is a certainty. Forget the rest, he just wins. Don't waste your dough on others. If you don't believe me, go back and watch the replay of his run behind the Diva the other day. Watch it again. Also, know that in that race he rated 120. Last year, winning the Caul Cup, Elvis rated 119. Year before, Mummify, 118. Confectioner has 52 or so in the Caulfield. Just put your maximum bet on if he's in and the track is dry etc and thank me later.

Wanger97 re Eye Popper, that race was in Japan unfortunately, Expert form don't have ratings on the land of the rising sun.

[umrum]

Get on pLastered almost a good thing for the CC. Saver on sir dex.

[Sportz]

Possibly God's Own as well.

I expect him to go well in the Guineas next week (in fact I expect him to win it now that I chose Dream Ballad for my stable instead of him :rolleyes: ) and he could then be a starter at the Valley and a good chance.

Hmmm, perhaps I should have snapped up the $35 last week.

[Oaksnaf]

There seems to be a lot of talk around Leica Falcon in the betting ring and seems like a stayer, could be one to watch for Melb despite the fact was running class races not so long ago.

As for God's Own, i dont think he can win the Cox Plate at all, those $6.50 odds are unders by a mile.