Useless historical information!

[Tenacious Spirit]

I have just realised the folly of using historical information as a guide. To give you a recent example. Everyone was harping on about how no horse let alone a mare has ever carried this weight before. Why is this useless?, each horse is a standalone animal, the horses in the past have not won with the weight. So what? Different horse.

Another one is i was speaking to a friend and i suggested that On a Jeune might be a good early one for the cup and he was like oh nah horse having their third tilt at a cup without previously winning one don;t have a good record. That is just utter rubbish.

Horses don;t come through those races and win the cup, it isn;t a proven formline in the past. It is if the horse is good enough.

If makybe went to another cup it would be, no horse has won four, no jockey has won four in a row no this no that.

Anyone agree?

[BJ]

There is a first for everything.

I don't know that I would agree that it is totally useless. Historical information can provide the most likely outcomes, but that doesn't mean because it hasn't happened before that it never will.

Has there ever been a record broken? I mean if nobody has ever gone quicker than a certain time, that doesn't mean that they never will.

The fact about no horse winning that weight is pretty useless. I mean we are improving our scientific knowledge every day. Training techniques are improving, knowledge of diets etc, etc.... Makes sense to me that horses would be fitter and stronger than they used to be.

[dundas lane]

Great post Tenacious, I agree wholeheartedly with all you've said.

Not sure if you are familiar with a book titled;" Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil "; but years ago I started copying down some of his thoughts and ideas and placed them on the wall of my study, just as a reminder of where my brain should be at with regards to my punting.

Here are a couple of examples.

A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.

Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.



dundas lane ............

[D105Black]

Tenacious and Dundas, I cannot agree with you both more.

People are entitled to their own opinion so this is what I will say. I got hogwashed by reading through all the forum blogs. I missed betting on MD three years in a row because of all the information out there. My heart was with MD but my brains got congested, dumbfounded and finally defeated me.

I guess next year, I have to go with my heart and forget about all other peoples opininon, then I will have only myself to blame if I fail.

I will take Dundas example as my guide from now on.

[w924]

"Tenacious and Dundas, I cannot agree with you both more."

Ditto!

the maxims of Pittsburg Phil are absolute gems.


"Fortune favours the brave"..not one of Phils I dont think , but rings true for me. I still draw upon ithat one from time to time...helps me double dip on my selections when I feel that I am getting exceptional value.