Svenvlad
9th December 2005, 10:44 PM
Hey all,
Back for another week. Good set of races for this week, especially the Summer Stakes which should be a real highlight.
Race 1 - Thought Falconten might be a good show here. He is a really striking horse by Show A Heart who loomed up to win at the 200m last time but was probably outclassed by Mel. The extra journey and the claim should help. There is a lot of speed here,so hopefully he can sit just off Diamonds Am I and pressure her in the straight. Diamonds Am I was a really good run last time, and the shorter straight of Doomben should really suit her. Consistent with my strategy of avoiding favourites in 2yo races, she's not my top pick (thats not to say she won't win obviously :)). Captain Lightning won a trial recently, indicating he could be ready for a first up effort. General Nediym's usually don't take long to come to hand either.
Race 2 - Aim So High could go close here, if they let him free-wheel in the lead. He has shown in the past, to my eye, that he doesn't like being held up between and inside of other horses. Hopefully Mcmahon just lets him roll to the front and he'll take some catching. He was competitive in some of those 3yo town races last year, so this class should not worry. Black Suit will appreciate the class drop and can get home late if the leaders start tiring in the last 100m. The weight shouldn't be a worry, either. Next Size Up is a horse on the rise who can make his presence felt with adequate luck. I did a quick map and had him getting in one off the fence, so hopefully things play out like that. Had fair 3yo form during the carnival, possibly showing the stable opinion of him?
Race 3 - Tough race. Lot of speed here. Maybe Brisbane Lion has a rough chance. He hasn't appeared to run the best races in town, but maybe in the weaker field he can get away with it. Piccohi has the best form in the race from my viewing, but the 10 alley and all the speed in the race put me off slightly. He's class though, and can surely win without surprising. Town Player is a nice chance too, the trainer wouldn't have brought him to town for nothing. The run 2 back is a great pointer for a race like this. Bet on that at your peril though :).
Race 4 - Couldn't get excited about this one either. I was under the impression Cold Start had gone over the top after his last run, but now that he is entered here, i don't know. I know the 2400 didn't suit and there was plenty of speed in the race, but he didn't give a yelp at the end. That being said, i'll stick with him (with plenty of reservations) because theres a lack of speed here. Lester Thunderwing is a query, was nom'ed for a stayers race a couple of weeks back, but hasn't been sighted until now. Don't know what to make of that, but his class will carry him a long way here. Thurman needs a dry track, and looks like getting it tomorrow. Not the most reliable mare going around, but she has ability on her day. Could be a value place chance.
Race 5 - Good 3yo fillies race here. Again, plenty of speed so the backmarkers should be their chance. Thought Nova Star was worth one more chance. The last run screamed more ground. She lost touch early on in the straight but then picked up again and finished well. The 1200m should be ideal. The gate is a little worry, but Cahill is quality and should get a good run. La Montagna has a slightly better alley, but will get back abit and should get in. The speed will be great for her and is proven in town. Single Rose gets her city chance here, but has been performing reasonably well at the mid-weeks. Perhaps a nice place chance.
Race 6 - Trap race. Most of the good chances are backmarkers, leaving me wondering where the speed will com from. Penetrator will go forward, and maybe Unite and Prosper and My Chinese King won't be far away. I've done my selections based on a good speed, so i'll sit back and hope :). Prend was ultra impressive last time, and the extra 200m looks great. The Doomben straight is the major worry, because she needed all of the Eagle Farm stretch to win last time. Stathi knows what hes doing though, and won't be far off at the end. Decibeel won well last time, i just can't get excited about her at this stage. Mameluke is proven at the track and distance and can win without surprising.
Race 7 - Top race. Thought Proudly Agro was in there with a top chance. He has done nothing wrong of late, and the alley is great. He won't be far off them on turning and the likely pace of the race will suit him down to the ground. Picardi Run will be in great condition for this race, judging by his effort last time. He peaked on his run about 50m out (as was expected from trainer's pre-race comments) so the fitness will be there tomorrow. Very talented horse on his day. Show Biz Kid has a horror draw, but he's still a chance will all the speed that will be on. Won this race last year, edging out Sir Breakfast.
Race 8 - Last race. If Minassi repeats his last run, he'll win. He shouldn't have any trouble getting across from the alley, there is limited speed drawn inside him, and if Seamer can give him a cosy run, i think he'll be too strong. Daunting Lad has a horror draw and i fear he'll be trapped deep, but its a massive class drop and isn't without a chance with some luck. Merkaba is a good rough hope too, his last runs are better than they probably look on paper.
Best tomorrow would be Minassi and Prend with a good rough chance to Aim So High...
Good luck all
Sven
Back for another week. Good set of races for this week, especially the Summer Stakes which should be a real highlight.
Race 1 - Thought Falconten might be a good show here. He is a really striking horse by Show A Heart who loomed up to win at the 200m last time but was probably outclassed by Mel. The extra journey and the claim should help. There is a lot of speed here,so hopefully he can sit just off Diamonds Am I and pressure her in the straight. Diamonds Am I was a really good run last time, and the shorter straight of Doomben should really suit her. Consistent with my strategy of avoiding favourites in 2yo races, she's not my top pick (thats not to say she won't win obviously :)). Captain Lightning won a trial recently, indicating he could be ready for a first up effort. General Nediym's usually don't take long to come to hand either.
Race 2 - Aim So High could go close here, if they let him free-wheel in the lead. He has shown in the past, to my eye, that he doesn't like being held up between and inside of other horses. Hopefully Mcmahon just lets him roll to the front and he'll take some catching. He was competitive in some of those 3yo town races last year, so this class should not worry. Black Suit will appreciate the class drop and can get home late if the leaders start tiring in the last 100m. The weight shouldn't be a worry, either. Next Size Up is a horse on the rise who can make his presence felt with adequate luck. I did a quick map and had him getting in one off the fence, so hopefully things play out like that. Had fair 3yo form during the carnival, possibly showing the stable opinion of him?
Race 3 - Tough race. Lot of speed here. Maybe Brisbane Lion has a rough chance. He hasn't appeared to run the best races in town, but maybe in the weaker field he can get away with it. Piccohi has the best form in the race from my viewing, but the 10 alley and all the speed in the race put me off slightly. He's class though, and can surely win without surprising. Town Player is a nice chance too, the trainer wouldn't have brought him to town for nothing. The run 2 back is a great pointer for a race like this. Bet on that at your peril though :).
Race 4 - Couldn't get excited about this one either. I was under the impression Cold Start had gone over the top after his last run, but now that he is entered here, i don't know. I know the 2400 didn't suit and there was plenty of speed in the race, but he didn't give a yelp at the end. That being said, i'll stick with him (with plenty of reservations) because theres a lack of speed here. Lester Thunderwing is a query, was nom'ed for a stayers race a couple of weeks back, but hasn't been sighted until now. Don't know what to make of that, but his class will carry him a long way here. Thurman needs a dry track, and looks like getting it tomorrow. Not the most reliable mare going around, but she has ability on her day. Could be a value place chance.
Race 5 - Good 3yo fillies race here. Again, plenty of speed so the backmarkers should be their chance. Thought Nova Star was worth one more chance. The last run screamed more ground. She lost touch early on in the straight but then picked up again and finished well. The 1200m should be ideal. The gate is a little worry, but Cahill is quality and should get a good run. La Montagna has a slightly better alley, but will get back abit and should get in. The speed will be great for her and is proven in town. Single Rose gets her city chance here, but has been performing reasonably well at the mid-weeks. Perhaps a nice place chance.
Race 6 - Trap race. Most of the good chances are backmarkers, leaving me wondering where the speed will com from. Penetrator will go forward, and maybe Unite and Prosper and My Chinese King won't be far away. I've done my selections based on a good speed, so i'll sit back and hope :). Prend was ultra impressive last time, and the extra 200m looks great. The Doomben straight is the major worry, because she needed all of the Eagle Farm stretch to win last time. Stathi knows what hes doing though, and won't be far off at the end. Decibeel won well last time, i just can't get excited about her at this stage. Mameluke is proven at the track and distance and can win without surprising.
Race 7 - Top race. Thought Proudly Agro was in there with a top chance. He has done nothing wrong of late, and the alley is great. He won't be far off them on turning and the likely pace of the race will suit him down to the ground. Picardi Run will be in great condition for this race, judging by his effort last time. He peaked on his run about 50m out (as was expected from trainer's pre-race comments) so the fitness will be there tomorrow. Very talented horse on his day. Show Biz Kid has a horror draw, but he's still a chance will all the speed that will be on. Won this race last year, edging out Sir Breakfast.
Race 8 - Last race. If Minassi repeats his last run, he'll win. He shouldn't have any trouble getting across from the alley, there is limited speed drawn inside him, and if Seamer can give him a cosy run, i think he'll be too strong. Daunting Lad has a horror draw and i fear he'll be trapped deep, but its a massive class drop and isn't without a chance with some luck. Merkaba is a good rough hope too, his last runs are better than they probably look on paper.
Best tomorrow would be Minassi and Prend with a good rough chance to Aim So High...
Good luck all
Sven