Ashes Probability Puzzle

[jfc]

With 5 wickets remaining of the 4th innings the batting team B is 354 runs behind A.

B has a 1% probability of winning the match.

Question: What is the probability of a tie?

Assume:

Draw impossible.

B averages 1 run for every wicket-free ball.

Hint: should be able to solve with spreadsheet using a function whose name has at least 10 letters.

[moeee]

Hamburgers has got 10 letters.
But be careful you don't drip the tomato sauce on your tie.

What needs to occur to have a tie?.
Do they need to score exactly 354 runs at the setting of the sun or what?

[jfc]

What needs to occur to have a tie?.
Do they need to score exactly 354 runs at the setting of the sun or what?

To tie Team B needs to score 354 runs and then lose all its remaining wickets without adding its to the score.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tied_Test

[moeee]

I think you talking ********.
You gotta remember that the last 5 batsmen are nowhere near the class of the first 5 batsmen.
They gonna go out before they can make the 354 runs.
If you divide 354 by 5,there is no way Each of these batsmen can average 70 runs each!

[jfc]

I think you talking ********.
You gotta remember that the last 5 batsmen are nowhere near the class of the first 5 batsmen.
They gonna go out before they can make the 354 runs.
If you divide 354 by 5,there is no way Each of these batsmen can average 70 runs each!

Obviously I based the puzzle on the real situation yesterday morning.

From memory Betfair had England at ~170 to win.

So the 1% probability for Team B winning was as close as I could get without messing with pesky fractions.

[crash]

Ah, so this is where the incredibly gifted mathematically congregate!

[moeee]

Ah, so this is where the incredibly gifted mathematically congregate!

Don't be frustrated,I've lost over a million dollars in 30 years of punting.
It can happen to anyone.
Just keep searching Crash.
The answer has to be somewhere.