Interesting email

[Chrome Prince]

I received an email from a tipster the other day and thought it appropriate to make comment on the contents as I can prove the hypothesis within incorrect...

Email 1 - Beware of Steamers and Drifters

----------------------------------------------

There is an old saying in horse racing and that is
"you must follow the money"! Punters do this in
a variety of different ways and most of them are
un-successful. One of the most common examples
of punters blindly following the money is in the
form of "Steamers". A steamer is a horse that
has dramatically shortened in price and looks
likely to continue to do so.

A horses price can tumble for a wide variety of
reasons but one of the most common is that
someone has heard a rumour or the market
as a whole is over reacting to an isolated piece
of information. This can either be something
that they have read or more likely what they
have heard on television. Another reason for
this can be found by someone placing a substantial
size bet on course in a weak market.

If a punter placed a £1000 on a horse during the
Cheltenham festival, this bet when compared to
all of the other action at a meeting like that would
hardly have any effect on the price at all. Change
the venue to an evening meeting at Southwell and
the resulting effect on this much weaker market
would be vastly different. Yet it is amazing just
how many punters tend to jump on the bandwagon
and back the horse at the now vastly deflated new
price thinking that they have identified a cert.


The figures tell a different story.
Steamers win far more races than drifters.
While it is correct that you can lose money by not getting the best odds available on a steamer, this is also true with any horse. Continuing to bet into high percentage markets, means poor value, whether the horse steams or drifts. Betting into low percentage markets, means better value.

It is also true that there are various reasons why a horse's price can tumble in the market, but overall the price tumble reflects statistically to be a very good indicator of it's chances.

Did anyone observe the price tumble yesterday from $51.00 to $3.00 something????

Even in smaller markets, the same is true, providing that movement is reflected generally throughout various betting establishments.
I have followed the money on South Africa's race meets, where there is quite small liquidity, with a fair bit of accuracy and success.


Nobody ever gets rich by jumping on a bandwagon,
the place to be is to be the person who sets the
bandwagon in motion in the first place. If you are
one of the punters who have joined this "gamble"
at the last possible moment then you are definitely
taking the worst of it in terms of price. Whatever
value was there has now gone and you are basically
left with a sucker bet.

There is a kind of "herd" mentality amongst punters
and this can certainly be put to good use as and
when the time arrives. Punters and people in
general for that matter would much rather go
with the flow and be wrong in large numbers than
have the courage to go against the flow and do
something different knowing that if they are wrong
then they will appear foolish all on their own.

If I saw a horse tumbling in price all the way
down to a level that was ridiculously low compared
to what it had been a minute or two earlier then
I would be looking to do the exact opposite and
lay the thing. There is momentum in all markets
and it is this momentum that can mean that the
price tumbles way below it 's theoretically
correct price before it starts to correct itself.
It works in the same way as a car that takes
a certain distance for it to stop once you have
applied the brakes. So if you want to profit
on the exchanges then it definitely pays to
go against the herd.


Of course there is a clear advantage to be at the top of the movement, but there is also very little likelihood of that happening, unless punters have some inside knowledge.
The only sucker bet is the poor value bet.
A horse can be value even though it's price has shortened, a horse can be very poor value even though it's price is long.
Going against the herd is not recommended, unless you have better information, or a handicapping technique which identifies different horses successfully.
The writer should have concentrated on the importance of getting the best return on investment from steamers, rather than avoiding them altogether.

By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units.

[YoungBuck]

Did anyone observe the price tumble yesterday from $51.00 to $3.00 something????I noticed that yesterday, i think it was Dawn something, the first at Eagle farm. IAS opened it at 51.00 and it had come in to 6.00. I got on through betfair at 9.90, and it did come in further to around 3.00. I did OK out of it but somebody must have made a killing.

[wesmip1]

CP,

Good post. I would be interested to see the longer term results as I believe you are correct in your hypothesis.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

wesmip1,

The longer terms figures are extremely similar, I only picked the last three days as I had the spreadsheet open for the days betting.
Of course, if you get the worst price about any of them (TAB), then you struggle.

[crash]

Interesting stuff. Has anyone got any verifiable actual figures, or is the 'proof' here personal opinion or hearsay? I have read that 'actually, more drifters than shortener's win more races' [I have no proof either].

[Chrome Prince]

It isn't going to pan out every time though, like today I lost 5.56 units, however, the trend is there and for every day like today, there are two more very positive days. I think it's probably a case of some punters having a bad day and abandoning it. The figures over the last 56,000 races are showing in excess of 20% POT.

[Chrome Prince]

crash, we must have posted at the exact same moment as I didn't see your reply, sorry.

More shorteners win more races than drifters by more than twice as much.

I have gone through 56,000 instances on all tracks, however, the bigger pools have more accurate a reflection and impact.
Over those 56,000 races backing the shorteners on Betfair and laying the drifters, has returned more than 20% POT at Betfair prices.
I've been doing a revised method of it this year only, with slightly better returns.
For example, my maximum lay price is $5.00 and no more.

EDITED: I mean the bookie shorteners, and backing them or laying them on Betfair, not necessarily Betfair shorteners.

[AngryPixie]

Interesting stuff. Has anyone got any verifiable actual figures, or is the 'proof' here personal opinion or hearsay? I have read that 'actually, more drifters than shortener's win more races' [I have no proof either].

Wouldn't it hold that a shortener (by definition) win's more races than a drifter i.e. in many cases it probably starts at shorter odds ;)

[crash]

No it wouldn't mean that at all or odds-on favorites would have a better SR than 50% [explain that one], which they don't. I'm yet to see verifiable [TAB] figures that prove one or the other about drifters or shortener's.

Personally I hold no opinion either way as like I've said, we are dealing with hearsay, not checkable and viewable facts.

[Chrome Prince]

Crash, the TAB figures really don't mean much, because the market movements come from correction or late "flurry" rather than informed judgement, the other problem is that you don't know until the pool closes.

The facts are checkable, if you wish to put in the time.

It makes me wonder why people will believe drifters win, yet need proof of firmers being more dominant. why believe one fact without proof, yet need proof for another.

Anyone wanting to do the exercise will find the same as I found, I have no reason to post innaccurate information, as it's all checkable.

[crash]

Chrome,

No mate, you sprooking assumptions based on what you 'feel' is logical. One thing I have learned in this game is that racing 'logic' [most punters follow it] often leads to the poor house.

Someone puts a big bet on and all the wallies [those following the 'smart' money :-) ] jump on board taking whacking big unders and we all know that taking unders leads to the Salvo's ...... Shortener's = [inevitably] Underlays!

The golden rule is : VALUE and most shortener's by their very nature, don't fit that bill.

Opening prices and final prices would be required to prove anything about drifters and firmers.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,

No mate, you sprooking assumptions based on what you 'feel' is logical. One thing I have learned in this game is that racing 'logic' [most punters follow it] often leads to the poor house.

Someone puts a big bet on and all the wallies [those following the 'smart' money :-) ] jump on board taking whacking big unders and we all know that taking unders leads to the Salvo's ...... Shortener's = [inevitably] Underlays!

The golden rule is : VALUE and most shortener's by their very nature, don't fit that bill.

Opening prices and final prices would be required to prove anything about drifters and firmers.

Crash,

With all due respect, you seem to be following the tone of the email that was sent to me, that I have proven to be false by making in excess of 20% by doing the exact reverse for almost four months. Apart from the months I have been doing it, I researched 56,000 races - not TAB data but actual bookmakers fluctuations before I even contemplated betting.

It's not based on an assumption, nor on a gut feel, but facts from the track.

If you look at tote fluctuations, that's pretty useless and you do get the worst prices overall.

I pose this question...if there is no value in backing the shorteners, how is it I'm making a profit doing just that. I'm not the only one doing it either. The main difference I'm not getting underlays is because I'm getting close to the best price on those shorteners.

Those "wallies" do not bet on the tote, they bet where the value is, so that process alone belies the fact they are wallies.

Stable money rarely goes on the tote - it goes on the bookies.

For the record I recorded opening price, first fluctuation, second fluctuation and final price of bookies markets - not tote markets.

All that aside, I'm not trying to convert anyone, just pointing out that the email I was sent was not accurate according to my Betfair balance ;)

[AngryPixie]

You'd need to test it by comparing the strike rate of firmers and drifters that start at the same price. As an example, do starters that firm from 6/1 into 4/1 win any more races than starters that drift from 2/1 out to 4/1?

I also have no bias either way but do know from experience that when the big firm is on, that's the lay bet I want to stay out of.

[Chrome Prince]

I also have no bias either way but do know from experience that when the big firm is on, that's the lay bet I want to stay out of.

AngryPixie,

That's actually how I started my investigation.
I kept getting beaten on my lay bets when a firm move was made. This happened on a regular basis and according to my records I couldn't ignore the hard facts any longer.

[AngryPixie]

That's actually how I started my investigation.
I kept getting beaten on my lay bets when a firm move was made. This happened on a regular basis and according to my records I couldn't ignore the hard facts any longer.

I lost all of yesterdays profits in two lays that went bad today. They were absolute last second big firmers. Private info still rules! :(

[crash]

With all due respect Chrome,

I'd love a $1 for every punting fact/fallacy based on a punters 'personal' experience/betting records/whatever. Your falling into the same trap as the em writer, as I bet his assertions/facts are based on exactly the same 'proof' your basing yours on, which makes his/her claims just as valuable.

Like I said earlier about drifters and shortener's, I have no opinion either way but I do know that my wins are mostly drifters as that's where the value is as far as I'm concerned. Whether they win more races or less races than shortener's is all a bit academic as I don't bet on every race being run.

As for 'Steamers': Your 'proof' originally claimed by you in first post...

"By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units."


Proof = 3 days of personal punting results[?] lol lol :-))

[Chrome Prince]

The three days was an example crash,

the proof lies in 4 months plus 56,000 races.

I never said you or anyone else can't make money from drifters, I said that ignoring the steamers was killing the golden goose, and for me it lays golden eggs.

each to their own, I guess.

[Chrome Prince]

Following the money solely today - no form.

Out 50
In 70.66
Profit 20.66 Units
41.32% POT

[crash]

No use skiting about following 'the smart money' here mate [I saw a good example of that in r2 in Bris., following that donkey down to $1.15!].

You should have just followed my money, as you could have almost added another zero to your profit percentage yesterday.

The real smart money went on with a whoosh in Brisbane [another in Melb. too] far too late for money watchers to follow.
34/1 down into 15/1 within seconds before the jump while your lot was too busy jumping all over the donkey to notice anything!

PS: Don't take me too seriously Chrome. Just a friendly ribbing! lol lol :-))

[Chrome Prince]

I layed Scattergun crash, as there was no smart money for it, from my sources it remained rock solid at $1.20 all through betting, unless of course you're talking about tote corrections.

One can't necessarily carte blanche just lay drifters and back firmers, there is a point where drifters become profitable and firmers become unprofitable, but it's probably the reverse of what is commonly thought.

Some examples of the shorter horses I layed that firmed:
Black Tom
Aerated
Delusion
Scattergun
Go Sequalo
Mashudu
Hy Dream
Paris Zero
Fire In The Night
Collodi
Hot Danish
Camarilla
Blutigeroo
Foxy Boy

Of that lot only Mashudu and Hot Danish won.

Some examples of the shorter horses I backed that firmed:

Devil Moon WON
Lord Of The Dance WON
Bonza Crop WON
Two Fingers
The Jackal
Jay Low Girl WON
Miss Kooch
Tipungwuti
Mi Casa

Then I have the drifters that I backed:

Striken
Mr Lovalover
Jestajeune
Danes Mystery WON
Scenes
Class Apart WON
Starbird
Classic Truce
Bitabiff WON
Schapelle WON
Elegant Roi
Tricky Belle WON
Rock Slide WON
Romsey
Lachlan Valley
Shouldawon
Love's Great WON
Amberino
Evilweb WON
McCloud
Bianomour
Bobadah WON
Hot 'N' Ready
Haradasun
Bentley Biscuit WON
Yaya Lad
San Simeon

[Chrome Prince]

Today, Sunday

44 units out
62.95 units in
18.95 units profit
43.06% POT

[wesmip1]

CP,

Your system seems very consistent in getting a profit.

Congratulations.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks wesmip1,

I'll post the profit/loss until next Sunday to include the Saturday's events so you get some idea. It does have it's bad days of course, but I'm running in excess of 20% POT.

After that time, send me an email at racestats at hotmail dot com and I'll share the rules so you can track it yourself.

I don't want to post the rules on the forum, as it will get pilfered or in fact claimed by the seagulls ;)

[AngryPixie]

After that time, send me an email at racestats at hotmail dot com and I'll share the rules so you can track it yourself.

Me too? :) :)

[Chrome Prince]

Sure AP,

I don't want to be inundated with emails, but I'm prepared to share it with forum regulars.
To ensure, we don't get flyby nighters, I'll compile a list:

So far we have:
wesmip1
Angry Pixie

Please include your forum username in the email and I'll send the rules to you on Sunday.

[Chrome Prince]

To give some indication of the performance for April thus far.

382 bets (backing and laying)
85.52 units profit
22.39% POT

Assuming 5% commission already deducted.

Worst day -12.01 units (Sat 7th April)
Best Day +21.66 units (Sat 14th April)

That's transactions everyday, but with the most transactions being on a Saturday.
I'm placing my turnover on Betfair within a few minutes to jump, so I dare say if you got on just a little earlier for better prices, the balance would be better, but I've been caught out by late price movements, so I stick with less than two minutes to go.

[kiwi]

Interesting results Chrome, may i also have a copy of the rules?.

Cheers kiwi.:)

[Chuck]

I'm intrigued :)

Chrome can you send me a copy pretty please :D chucky_s_3000 at yahoo dot com dot au

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, I'll post a copy to any interested forum regulars.

Just send me an email and I'll send you the method on Sunday after I've written a small tutorial explaining it all. It isn't straightforward to explain but quite easy in practice.

Today
27 out
28.88 in
1.88 units profit
6.96% POT

Quiet day today.

[Chrome Prince]

Tuesday

18 Out
20.08 In
2.08 Profit
11.55% POT

Another quiet day.

[Chrome Prince]

Wednesday Results:

40 units out
24.28 units in
15.72 units lost

A poor day yesterday - the biggest drawdown yet.

Total April Results

467 units out
545.47 returned
78.47 units profit
16.80% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Thursday results:

35 units out
41.46 units In
Profit 6.46 units
POT 18.46%

Brings April total to:

502 out
586.93 In
Profit 84.93
POT 16.92%

[Chrome Prince]

Sunday to Thursday it's 13.65 units profit for the week so far, with the worst recorded day ever falling yesterday.

Roll on Friday ;)

[odericko]

im guessing here but do the top 3 have bearing??? ie nos 1 2 3 today i had nr 3 no1 cr 5 no2 nr6 no2 this was waiting till 0 secs b4 jump ************ unitab is so slow to refresh

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Odericko,

Nothing to do with TAB numbers or TAB fluctuations, although you're close with the timing of the bets.

Send me an email to racestats at hotmail dot com with your forum username and I'll send you the rules on Sunday.

My motherboard has fried today, so I'm trying to extract the spreadsheet from my drive, bear with me.

[Chrome Prince]

Friday was a loss

35 units out
15.84 units in
19.16 units lost

Now losing for the week, so looking forward to Saturday.

[Chrome Prince]

Saturday returned 7.35 units profit.

I have now sent the email to those who requested it, if you haven't received it, please let me know.

[AngryPixie]

Looks like an interesting read. Much appreciated.

[Chrome Prince]

18 units profit for Sunday guys ;)

April total profit 115.60 units including the Betfair commission taken out.

[wesmip1]

CP,

Just sent an email to you for the rules.

Thanks.

[odericko]

thanks for your email chrome.. just got home from work and had a try at your system i had pakenam race 9 down as nos. 3and 6 for a win got 4.00 for the 6 and 3.35 for the 3 ..are these the 2 you would have picked?? because i have absolutely no idea how to use a spread sheet or what the heck one looks like i couldnt open the atatchment you sent but i did a quick mental calc and had these 2 as definate picks

[Goldcoaster]

Thanks for that Chrome....looks interesting indeed

[Chrome Prince]

thanks for your email chrome.. just got home from work and had a try at your system i had pakenam race 9 down as nos. 3and 6 for a win got 4.00 for the 6 and 3.35 for the 3 ..are these the 2 you would have picked?? because i have absolutely no idea how to use a spread sheet or what the heck one looks like i couldnt open the atatchment you sent but i did a quick mental calc and had these 2 as definate picks

Only number 6 Viva Vettori was a selection based on the first rule, and you were unlucky as it was a lay bet which won.

I'll update the day's tally later tonight, as I have to go out for a while.

[wesmip1]

Thanks for the rules. Much appreciated.

[White Rabbit]

Thanks for the rules chrome,looks interesting.
Rabbit

[Chrome Prince]

Tough day today - loss of 11.40 units

April total 104.77 units profit
16.45% POT

No Staking

[Chrome Prince]

Finished the day almost level.

-0.83 of a unit loss.

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

I'm going to give this a go tomorrow.

[Chrome Prince]

Best of luck with it, but remember even an incoming tide has an ebb and flow ;)

[Chrome Prince]

When requesting via email, please include your forum username.

This is only because I don't want to send it out willy nilly to "passers by".
I've already had one person try to pass themselves off as a member, but that member had already contacted me on another matter, so the deception was apparent.
There are some naughty people out there!

P.S. Your email address and name remains absolutely confidential.

[AngryPixie]

I found I had too many balls in the air so I watched again. I like to watch.

[Chrome Prince]

Well you just saved yourself a lot of headache - today was a disaster (just waiting on Ascot to finish) and I'll post the tally, but it's looking a bit grim, I'm down almost 19 units for the day.

I know a few people were giving it a first go today, and it looked bad, but sure as apples the weekend or next midweek meeting will get it all back plus more.

You can't turn a 16% POT over thousands of races into a loss, when the profit is made up of hundreds of winners.

[Chrome Prince]

A loss of 20.03 units today

April tally

715 wagers
84.95 units profit
11.88% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Got back almost half of yesterday's loss today with a profit of 9.06 units.

April Tally:

738 wagers
95.91 units profit
12.99% POT
Flat staking.

[AngryPixie]

Got back almost half of yesterday's loss today

Nice :cool:

There's no stopping the forum hoodoo though is there?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes it sems that way, and the poorpeople that tried it first time yesterday copped a bashing.

On the bright side it's still almost 13% POT for April including two horror days in the last week, so that's pretty good over the number of bets gone on.

The high point was 115 units profit, and I'd expect to be past there by close of business Sunday.

[odericko]

gave ias alsports away as a bad joke ...tried explorer and that froze as well ,very strange situation but i did how ever discover that sportingbet worked just as good 4 me thanks again 4 the tip chrome....

[Chrome Prince]

Today

5.52 units profit

April
839 wagers
93.17 units profit
11.10% POT

Where else can you get 93 units profit for the month, not based on longshots...for FREE!!!

[Chrome Prince]

Crackone, I sent a reply to your email just now.

Look at the prices for Bendigo Race 1 - a perfect example.
Check out the only horse which had a movement (so to speak).
Check out all the others that didn't.

Fluc 2 only.

Cheers.

[Crackone]

Crackone, I sent a reply to your email just now.

Look at the prices for Bendigo Race 1 - a perfect example.
Check out the only horse which had a movement (so to speak).
Check out all the others that didn't.

Fluc 2 only.

Cheers.Thanks for your reply only wish I read it abit earlier.

[Chrome Prince]

A loss of 9.1 units today.

April Tally

885 wagers
84.53 units profit
9.55% POT

A fair way short of the target at this stage.

[odericko]

i used sporting bet yesterday and these are the prices i got for the place on betfair wins were 3.10 3.45 3.80 2.62 1.56 3.10 2.52 2.16 1.35 losses were 2.80 2.52 2.00 thats as far as went as i reasoned that this was a good enough profit for the day ....nthham race 2 threw up no13 for me but i thought surely not and left it alone....pitty.

[Chrome Prince]

I'm a bit confused, did you mean Narromine?

Also be a bit careful using other websites, there are reasons to use IAS which may not be apparent on face value.

[odericko]

another good day enough profit for today bets were nr2 no.1 @2.22
vr3 no13@4.10
nr3 no11@1.38
nr3 no12@5.90
vr4 no3@1.41
nr4 no11@3.75
all place bets unfortunately again 2 day..

[Chrome Prince]

7.65 units profit today

April Tally

903 wagers
92.17 units profit less commission
10.21% POT

[Chrome Prince]

May kicks off with 6 units profit today.

[odericko]

tried my luck using my new slightly revised version and ith threw up the winner at the first in england betfair odds 17.50 win 2.22 place ...once again i only had the place bet...doh...

[Chrome Prince]

5.68 units profit today.

May Tally

58 wagers
11.68 units profit (less the 5% commission)
20.15% POT

Maria who??? :D

[Chrome Prince]

A thumper of a day today - profit of 19.04 units

May Tally

92 wagers
30.72 units profit (less the 5% commission)
33.39% POT

Anyone using this method?

[Crackone]

Anyone using this method?[/QUOTE]Hi Chrome Prince used it today as had the day off due to rain. How do the figures compare Sat. Sun. and public holy. to midweek Mon. to Fri.?

cheers

[Chrome Prince]

The figures are comparable all days, except for the races where there are really small field sizes on the whole card.

Did you get a similar result to myself?

[Crackone]

The figures are comparable all days, except for the races where there are really small field sizes on the whole card.

Did you get a similar result to myself?Used method 2 only +5.53 units
Had I used method 1 same result 19 units profit. (Hindsite)

[Chrome Prince]

Ah o.k.
Sometimes one method beats the other, but they are each independently still kicking goals.

[AngryPixie]

Anyone using this method?

Chrome

Still haven't used this on the local races but did achieve some success with a variation for the UK races last night. I'm restricted to Saturday and public holiday Australian meetings at present :(

[Chinbok]

Hi Chrome,

If everyone using your method used the IAS market and the same criteria for back or lay, then we would all be backing or laying the same horses. Wouldn't this mean that, on average, we would be backing at a lower price and laying at a higher price?

You mentioned that the liquidity would be better, but it would only be one side of the market.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

Still haven't used this on the local races but did achieve some success with a variation for the UK races last night. I'm restricted to Saturday and public holiday Australian meetings at present :(

Angry Pixie,

I haven't looked at using this with the UK markets as yet, but after it all settles down, I plan to investigate and analyse this further. The main problem I can see is that most of the markets just list the current market price and not the fluctuations.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chrome,

If everyone using your method used the IAS market and the same criteria for back or lay, then we would all be backing or laying the same horses. Wouldn't this mean that, on average, we would be backing at a lower price and laying at a higher price?

You mentioned that the liquidity would be better, but it would only be one side of the market.

True, but not necessarily.
If 20 people are looking to back a horse in the final minutes and have a set price criteria, then the price should go up by demand. Layers would have to increase the prices offered in order to get matched. As long as the backer doesn't take whatever is available regardless of price.
So optimally, if layers aren't getting matched and want to, they must raise their liability a few cents.
Of course you could argue that if the backer wants to get matched, he might have to do the same, but looking at the trends, if enough demand is there, you'll get matched, the more demand (read money), the more likely to get matched (within reason).
I've almost always managed to get a few cents higher than the amounts traded in the final minutes.I take one bet at the current available and two bets at 10% above that.

[Chrome Prince]

Gave back a bit today - a loss of 11.14 units

May Tally

128 wagers
20.14 units profit (less the 5% commission)
15.73% POT

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

Ladbrokes seemed to work for me last night. No auto refresh though. Just applied your rules but only worked the lay side.

[Chrome Prince]

Just had a gander at Ladbrokes.

Yes, it should work fine under "view as racecard" as this view shows the fluctuations.

I'll start to keep records in June, as May I have set aside to finalise the analysis for Aussie races.

[Chrome Prince]

Today - a profit of 7.35 units

May Tally

188 wagers
27.49 units profit (less the 5% commission)
14.62% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Sunday - a profit of 6.75 units

May Tally

232 wagers
34.25 units profit (less the 5% commission)
14.76% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Since posting the bets and releasing the method via email here are the overall results...

1,135 wagers
126.42 units profit (less the 5% commission)
11.14% POT

Longest priced winner $8.00

[AngryPixie]

Thanks again :D

[Chrome Prince]

A loss of 4.73 units today. Was looking a lot worse until Nash punched the last winner in Sydney home at drifting of 84% ;)

Although I have recorded the win price as $4.20 according to the rules, as high as $4.60 was available on the horse in the last few minutes.

Taking the selections as top rated horses, they are easily outperforming other websites that you have to pay big dollars for, and you don't have to worry about track condition or first uppers or first starters ;)
And it's all free!

May Tally

262 wagers
29.75 units profit (less 5% commission)
11.36% POT

[Chrome Prince]

A small loss of 1.88 units today.

[Chrome Prince]

After a very suspicious day all round, a loss of 6.12 units.

Why suspicious?
I've never seen so many heavily supported horses run unplaced in one day -ever. Not lost, but unplaced!
On top of that, even the drifters failed to win at the expected rate.

Now that they've made their money, it's our turn tomorrow ;)

May Tally

321 wagers
22.15 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.90% POT

Regardless of the goings on, still beating them at their own game ;)

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

Are you seeing this again today? After your posting of yesterday I thought I'd watch a few markets and there has been some huge changes right at the end of betting :(

[Chrome Prince]

AP,

I'm offsite betting remotely today, so I'll update everything when I return.
It's more in our favour today though (depending on the last few races).

One thing to be aware of is that the site used can sometimes "play" around when they sniff punters have found an advantage.

If I strike three consecutive days in a row where this happens, I stop and resume when it gets back to normal.

Red herrings can soon send you broke. :(

[odericko]

why not try waiting for a win at the venue first then stop at your first profit//

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Odericko,

Because this method involves both backing and laying strategies.
There really is no reason to stop at a profit if the odds are in your favour longterm.

It's just when various bookies put up some dummy odds that it messes things up.

[Chrome Prince]

Today was better - 3.06 units profit.

May Tally

355 wagers
25.21 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.10% POT

Been a few days now since double digit profit, looking forward to the next three days in particular ;)

Have been asked to post the last two months together, so here 'tis...

April / May Tally

1258 wagers
117.39 units profit (less 5% commission)
9.33% POT

As you can gather May kicked off gangbusters and then proceeded to slump way below the average - as Keating said "A correction is imminent" :D

[Chrome Prince]

My positive thinking yesterday, led to a nice 10.53 unit profit today!

May Tally

381 wagers
35.74 units profit (less the 5% commission)
9.38% POT

April / May Tally

1284 wagers
127.91 units profit (less 5% commision)
9.96% POT

Maximum price of winner still only $8.00

My personal goal is 200 units profit by May 31st.

[Chrome Prince]

A loss of 8.89 units today.

May Tally

442 wagers
27.29 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.17% POT

April / May Tally

1345 wagers
119.47 units profit (less 5% commission)
8.88% POT

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

Do you have a feel for whether your method is more successful on the weekend or on a weekday?

[Crackone]

Hi Chrome Prince
Had a profit of 2 units today. I don't lay or back any horse that opens up $4 or longer, it seems to be working at the moment.

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

Do you have a feel for whether your method is more successful on the weekend or on a weekday?

Hi Angry Pixie,

There have been a lot more bets midweek obviously, but since going live, here's the breakdown...

Saturday's Only:

336 wagers
45.91 units profit(less 5% commission)
13.66% POT

Weekday:

1009 wagers
73.56 units profit(less 5% commission)
7.29% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chrome Prince
Had a profit of 2 units today. I don't lay or back any horse that opens up $4 or longer, it seems to be working at the moment.

Cheers

Good one Crackone,

You might want to have another look at it though.

Opened $4 or longer:

301 wagers
64.89 units profit (less 5% commission)
21.56% POT

Opened less than $4

1044 wagers
54.57 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.23% POT

[Crackone]

"You might want to have another look at it though."

My spread sheet reads like this

All up
307 bets
14.48 units profit (started on the biggest loser day)

$4 & above

65 bets
25 unit lose

Laying the $4 above 1.5 units profit
Backing the Firmers and Drifters is the big loser 26.5 units only two winners in 29 bets

This is opposite to your sample spread sheet where both are in good profit.

I find a good day can be spoilt by a $4 lay getting up late in the day.

[Chrome Prince]

Crackone,

Is this your own spreadsheet from when you started?
I can't follow why there is such a remarkable difference.

Are you absolutely certain that the drift/lay bet percentages are calculating correctly? I.E. that firmers are sometimes bet or lay propositions as are drifters.

If you think it is, or you are actually using my spreadsheet to calculate it, then some investigation is needed.

EDITED: Actually, upon thinking about it, you could be experiencing a temporary trend.
I thought about what you said a few weeks ago myself about a high priced horse spoiling an otherwise good day. It sometimes certainly works out that way, but to balance it out, when a drifter goes from $3.00 to $5.50 and you can get up to $6.00 on Betfair, it makes up for it.

Anyway, keep doing what you're comfortable with, as long as you're in profit, it doesn't matter, and you can look at it again when you have more data and make a decision.

[Crackone]

Is this your own spreadsheet from when you started?

Yes

Are you absolutely certain that the drift/lay bet percentages are calculating correctly? I.E. that firmers are sometimes bet or lay propositions as are drifters.

Yes


EDITED: Actually, upon thinking about it, you could be experiencing a temporary trend.
I thought about what you said a few weeks ago myself about a high priced horse spoiling an otherwise good day. It sometimes certainly works out that way, but to balance it out, when a drifter goes from $3.00 to $5.50 and you can get up to $6.00 on Betfair, it makes up for it.

This is what I thought, it may be trend or a correction, time will tell. (only watching for now)

[Chrome Prince]

Crackone,

Here's some more information, if you find it helpful.

Laying the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

194 wagers
57.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
29.44% POT


Backing the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

107 wagers
7.83 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.32% POT

Laying the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
49.29 units profit
16.37% POT

Backing the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
-51.88 units profit
-17.23% POT

** These figures are based on opening price at the 0min 0sec mark, not the flucs, not the final and not the Betfair price. The actual profit and loss is based on the Betfair price.

[Mark]

Hi Chrome

I must be doing something wrong (or right!). Yesterday was my best day by far using your system. ps I never, NEVER, back odds on, and I did chicken out of some bets, both lay and back, using my own judgement.

[Chrome Prince]

Good stuff Mark!

There are plenty of variations to my original criteria, and as Crack One pointed out, there's a lot of variation to make money out of.

The whole thing rotates on identifying a profitable trend one way or the other, and identifying when a horse is backable or layable. Within that there is plenty of room to make adjustments to suit personal style.

Well done.

[Chrome Prince]

Poor day today...

A loss of 16.17 units, which I think breaks the record for the worst day ever.

However,

May Tally

476 wagers
11.93 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.51% POT

April / May Tally

1379 wagers
104.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.55% POT

After such a strong April, if I lose the profit for May at anytime I will stop betting and record the rest of May, before restarting in June.

[Chrome Prince]

Perhaps the only funny thing about this was Sunshine Coast Race 3 where the caller says "And they settle down to fight it out clear of Catchit"

I wasn't aware that cats left deposits on the Sunshine Coast track :D

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

I love a good conspiracy theory. Things have gone downhill a little since you made your method public. Wonder who you sent it to ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Angry Pixie,

I don't think it's who I sent it to at all, and I was very careful not to publish it fully on the forum.

It's kind of easy to blame a bad run on things like that, if anything it could be that those using it are betting back onto IAS causing some fluctuations (although I also doubt that), the whole idea was to solely use Betfair so things like that did not occur.

That could be one explanation, but in reality there are probably quite a few other reasons for the downturn, which is why I'll stop if May goes to a loss and reassess.

Having said that, it's quite likely that the next few days could recoup all losses.

[AngryPixie]

Yes natural ebb and flow I suspect. It's a very interesing approach that appears to have opened the door to quite a few variations. :)

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, natural ebb and flow AP.

Got it all back plus more today.

Just waiting for the last to jump and will post tally ;)

[Chrome Prince]

19.11 units profit today, with almost all bets going the way of the parameters.
Very satisfying after such a poor couple of days.

May Tally

497 wagers
31.05 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.25% POT

April / May Tally

1400 wagers
123.22 units profit (less 5% commission)
8.80% POT

There's still room for improvement as the May POT is about half the April POT.

[Chrome Prince]

With regard to conspiracy theories, the VRC are examining the mobile phone records of up to 10 jockeys.

Guaranteed when they release the meetings in question it will line up perfectly with the poorer results.

[AngryPixie]

I'm over 6 foot :)

[Chrome Prince]

Hehe, maybe they're ringing eachother perpetuating the forum hoodoo, and backing the lay bets and laying the back bets.

Still, they are losing :D

[AngryPixie]

Will be interesting to see whether there's a match up. As I said earlier in the thread, like you I noticed some strange happenings. No fluke the markets came back to normal on the day that the news became public. ;)

[Mark]

3 cheers for Chrome Prince.

[Chrome Prince]

No fluke the markets came back to normal on the day that the news became public. ;)

I thought that myself.
Any set of markets will have variation, fluctuation and general volatility, but there have been at least two days in May with severely strange happenings way beyond the normal bounds of expectation.

[Chrome Prince]

A small 1.51 unit loss today.

[Chrome Prince]

Hmmm, a very shaky start today, almost 12 units down already, but we're not even a third the way through, so it could change dramatically.

[Mark]

Yes Chrome, a very dodgy start, but selective laying/backing, not always correct I might add, has seen me finish in front.........again. This is going gangbusters.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Mark,

Glad you were able to eek a profit on an extremely tough day.

For my part, it was the worst day seen in 60,000 races!

A loss of 26.05 units.

May Tally

568 wagers
4.86 units profit (less 5% commission)
0.86% POT

By contrast to:

April Tally

903 wagers
92.17 units profit (less 5% commission)
10.21% POT

While the month is not over, if I lose the 4.86 units profit for the month tomorrow, I'll stop and reassess the method. I'm not giving away any part of the huge profit in April I had.

On the other hand I have noticed some particular trends while live betting, that I want to investigate anyway. I feel that somehow a sliding scale needs to be introduced over the blanket scale I now have.

I'll keep those participants advised via email with an updated spreadsheet, when or if it's nutted out.

The implementation is going to be extremely challenging.

[Chrome Prince]

On looking at the data, it's best left to run it's course at this point.
I couldn't find anything to justify changing a winning formula.
Confident that either May could rebound into profit, or if not, June certainly will.
I think that it should be left to stand on it's own.

Mucking around with the data, or second guessing it on the basis of 2 weeks data, could do more harm than good.

Personally, I'll stop betting and watch if the May profit evaporates, but I don't think anything should be changed.

[Chrome Prince]

Today has begun a lot better - thank goodness.

Petulie bolts in @ $4.00 on Betfair - left alone by punters :D

All the support was for Morning Time which ran third.

[Mark]

Go Chrome..................15 units ahead here.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,

Didya get Sister Jacinta @ $7.40 Betfair.

Same as the last one, she was left alone and drifted, while the money went on Marquis Diamond which ran third.

At this point I'm up around 17 units for the day and rolling along nicely.

[Mark]

I jagged 7.80. Got to 16.75 up, now down to 9.5 after 3 losses in the last 4 races.

[Mark]

Cleric 7.60

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, went a little downhill in the last few races.

11.10 units profit for the day though.

May Tally

602 wagers
15.96 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.65% POT

Versus

April Tally

903 wagers
92.17 units profit (less 5% commission)
10.21% POT


April/May Tally

1505 wagers
108.13 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.18% POT

A ways to go for May.

[Mark]

Quick update for you Chrome.
I started with a $600 bank, so $6 bets.
I've bet on 9 days, and won on 7 of them.
Turnover $1162, profit $301.32, or 25.93% POT.
Currently up to $8 bets.

Cheers
Mark

[Chrome Prince]

That's on around 193 live wagers?

That's very good going!

Possibly you're also getting some better prices by looking out for value, my results are just taking the best price with a minute to go.

Well done.

[Chrome Prince]

10.40 units profit today.

May Tally

627 wagers
26.36 units profit (less 5% commission)
4.20% POT

April/May Tally

1530 wagers
118.54 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.75% POT

[Chrome Prince]

A loss of 11.51 units today, after it was looking very good around 2:30pm.

May Tally

679 wagers
15.43 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.27% POT

(well behind target, but still in profit)

April/May Tally

1582 wagers
107.60 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.80% POT

[Chrome Prince]

Today, Sunday was an 8.35 unit profit.

I seem to be playing pogostick for May, with no real headway nor no real loss ensuing, but sooner or later it's going to turn dramatically one way or the other, still I'm happy to be in profit after some 1,634 live bets and a profit of nearly 116 units or 7.10% POT.

My actual unit profit is a little higher, as I have been reporting with 5% commission taken out, my commission rate is a lot lower, but for fairness sake, I wanted to post the starting rate of deduction.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,

There have been 176 favourites @$2.00 or less opening for a profit of $17.20 units on laying.

Using my method on those shorties is showing less than half that profit, so I think you are correct and we should just lay all of those ones.

Interesting to note that the close @ $2.00 or less would also show an $18.20 unit profit laying.

So you can use that approach two-fold.

[Mark]

CP

If they are a lay, I'm happy to lay, but if the system says back, I stay out.

[Chrome Prince]

Today was a small loss of 3.11 units

[Crackone]

Hi Chrome Prince not sure if you have the unitab ratings. If you have you may want to look at the drifters that are rated at 100 , and the firmers as well.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, Crackone,

I have 'em, might be interesting to run that scenario when they coincide with the selections.
I have the theory that the result might be similar, but I'll run it tomorrow and post back the results.

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry Crackone,

I have to reneg on my posting, as I only have the metro ratings and it would take me too much time to download them all or even look them up manually.

As I said before, I have a feeling that the results might be similar.

If anyone wants to do it, then they can post it here.

[Chrome Prince]

A nice profit of 19.31 units today.

May Tally

785 wagers
40.14 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.11% POT

April-May Tally

1688 wagers
132.31 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.84% POT

P.S. Maximum win dividend still $8.00
*Average win dividend $3.40

Back to my very first posting on this thread, the hypothesis of the email is incorrect because it was a generality and assumed that you are going to back ALL firmers, or Lay ALL drifters.
By applying a little investigation, it can be proven that by selectively backing some firmers and laying others, and by selectively backing some drifters and laying others, a profit can be made over thousands of races, providing you are betting into low percentage markets.

[Crackone]

Chrome These are my figures

198 Unitab rated 100
74 winners allup 37.37% S.R

102 Drifters
35 winners 34.31% S.R $3.48 Ave. div.

84 - 99 Unitab rated
142 Drifters
26 winners 18.30% S.R $3.96 Ave. div.
cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Crackone,

Makes for interesting thought.

[Chrome Prince]

Two observations:

1. I love laying odds on favourites over the jumps - anywhere in the world.
Two very short priced favourites over the jumps fizzled today.

2. A perfect example of what can be achieved when the price is too short on one, so the other becomes value.

A huge plunge on Star Touch in race 4 Strathalbyn $10.00 into $2.90
My method selected Alpine Storm which went from $2.15 to $4.40

Regardless of the outcome, Alpine Storm was almost a double overlay in my books @$5.70 on Betfair and 76% plus drift.

Alpine Storm just nosed out the plunge horse ;)

If we rule out the plunge horse for a moment, and look at the price of Alpine Storm, it becomes obvious. All we need is an ounce of edge and we have overs.

All fine and dandy to talk after the race, but patterns keep repeating over and over.

Here's a list of similar situations and the result:
Falvalea WON $5.80
Wesley Manor
Upper Echelon
French King
Estelle Collection
Fasnatic
Birthday Bash WON $4.30
Eyeteecee
New Tradition WON $4.50
Occurrence
El Maroo WON $7.80
Kohl
Easy Rocker WON $7.80
Al Spark
Letmeentertainyou
Monet Rules WON $6.40
Zamra
Water Captain WON $8.00
Snip 'N' Sox
Bitabiff WON $5.30
Amberino
McCloud
Next Adventure WON $5.10
Chart Topper
Cocoruru
Keen Commander
Secret Relations WON $4.92
Guerrouj
Pinions
All Ticker WON $6.80
Lindabrava
Yuba County
Litter
She's All Heart
Meking Dane
Sacred Moon
Commanding Victory WON $6.60
Glory Be
Big Daddy Cool
Anyways
Nicaragua
Synonym
Gallium
Classy Crystal
Foreign Capital
Definitely So
Commemorating
City Of The Czars
Pingo
Desert Lad WON $3.85
Indicted
Fingal Bay
White Diamonds
Diplomatic Force WON $8.00
Posadas WON $4.40
Testimonial WON $5.50
Regal Megan
Upilio WON $7.80
Spark Of Life
Indira Morning
Rich Az
Grondie
Tears I Cry
Peratin
Urbane Boy
Annoyed
Awe And Wonder
Hollaback WON $4.10
Hy Dream
********** Chimes
Kanalea
Kinroe WON $3.55
Four Beers Later
Just Curious
French King
World Ruler
Passenger WON $3.20
Sophistication WON $3.70
Regreagan
For Action WON $4.20
Hometown Legend
Zelt
Ponbar Diamond
Ugly Betty
Media Attention
Leica Plateau WON $5.20
Sweetmandy
Eton
Cavallo
Devil's Nite
De Coubertin
Margate
Waltz To Glory
Riveret WON $4.20
Medimist
Kariad
Kitz Lane
Racy Alice
Petulie WON $4.00
Sister Jacinta WON $7.40
Zimaretto
Emilyjoy
Belle Paris WON $5.30
Avoid Heathrow
Energizer WON $4.60
Brunelleschi
Blackford
Alpine Storm WON $5.70

End result is 108 selections under this scenario for a profit of close to 50 units or around 46& POT, with the maximum win dividend of $8.00

[Mark]

Another good day today Chrome.
By my count there were 20 horses to back today of which 7 won, and 23 lays of which only 6 won.
The prices I took gave me around 8 units profit.

[Chrome Prince]

3.09 units profit for me today.

I had 25 lays for only 7 winners
I had 22 bets for 6 winners

But I stuck to the original rules which included wagering on odds on shots.

Will post full tally later tonight, as I'm off to a meeting.

[Chrome Prince]

May Tally

832 Wagers
43.22 Units Profit (less 5% commission)
5.19% POT

April / May Tally

1735 Wagers
135.40 Units Profit (less 5% commission)
7.80% POT

[Chrome Prince]

2.09 units profit today.

[Chrome Prince]

A shocking Friday..

21.79 units loss, still up 20 plus units for May though.

[AngryPixie]

:eek:, :eek: and double :eek:

Bad luck Chrome. Onward to June.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Angry Pixie,

Just about every movement went against me yesterday.

Looking at the figures the two worst betting days are Wednesdays and Fridays, but I can't come up with any concrete reasons why.

[Chrome Prince]

Saturday's Result: 4.27 unit loss

Sunday's Result: 3.13 unit loss

May Tally

986 wagers
17.58 units profit (less 5% commission)
1.78% POT

April May Tally

1889 wagers
109.76 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.81% POT

Going to add a slight revision to the rules in June - just a marginal adjustment to the percentages

[Mark]

My guess would be lowering the drift % for a back, to say 30.

[Chrome Prince]

O.K. Here's the long explanation.....

I had stopped betting yesterday after May's profit evapourated to nil, as I wasn't about to give back any profit from April.

There have been some really strange results for May that defy all previous trends, so we must be flexible and adapt. Rather than backfit or completely change a previously winning formula, I have merely shifted the parameters slightly to smooth out the radical highs and lows to return a more consistent result.
In other words, take a little off the very high profits, to put back into the high losses.

I'm now laying ALL firmers and DRIFTERS under 41%, and backing only DRIFTERS over 40%, so the Drift component remains unchanged.

* I have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with strike rate, it's to do with average dividend, people have been pounding the firmers in May, unlike anything in the last 58,000 races!!!

Here's how it pans out using the original rules:

1930 wagers
85.38 units profit
4.42% POT

The POT here is less than half of the previously published POT, so it tells a very descriptive story.

Here's how it pans out using the revised rules:

1930 wagers
90.17 units profit
4.67% POT

This translates to an April profit of 35.34 units and a May profit of 54.61

So the massive profit in April, won't be seen again unless people abandon plunging onto firmers. I did say that people should be taking the available price or better and not taking less, but it hasn't worked out that way at all - it appears people have been taking a lot less just to get set. It may not be those following this method, it may in fact be others as well - who knows. :(

[Chrome Prince]

As previously stated, I stopped betting yesterday and resumed today under the new parameters, this resulted in a 12 unit loss today, but half the races were abandoned.

The new approach should translate well to previously ordinary Saturday's as well.

Time will tell.

[Mark]

Hi Chrome

Just so I've got this right, you'll be laying all opening favourites unless they drift by 41% or more.

Did you lay Amberino on Saturday? If so, are you able to have a look at your stats for lays that drift less than 40% and are no longer favs. I think the problem is that some favs drift into the 'too big to lay' region, but you are still laying them. How much have you lost since 'black' Saturday 19/5. Not bragging but I'm ahead 15 units since then, not great but better than losing.

Mark

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chrome

Just so I've got this right, you'll be laying all opening favourites unless they drift by 41% or more.

Did you lay Amberino on Saturday? If so, are you able to have a look at your stats for lays that drift less than 40% and are no longer favs. I think the problem is that some favs drift into the 'too big to lay' region, but you are still laying them. How much have you lost since 'black' Saturday 19/5. Not bragging but I'm ahead 15 units since then, not great but better than losing.

Mark

Yes Mark you've got it right.

Yes, I layed Amberino on Saturday as the drift was only 30%

Since black Saturday I've lost 23.39 units sticking to the rules.
You've done very well being selective, and I suspect you've got some better prices than me.

I've checked the "too big to lay" suggestion, but the overall stats aren't reflecting that, although May certainly is.

Taking all lays greater than $5.00 at the jump, the profit is some 22 units for 78 wagers. Whereas May, it's breakeven.

However, I do think you're onto something.
I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible, but perhaps when the lays get to $5.00 and upwards, the price accepted on Betfair should be within a certain percentage of the final IAS price.

Definitely food for thought, but I've only recorded the Betfair prices on the actual winners.

I don't know how we should tackle this, but probably avoid the lay if you can't get within 20% of the final price????

[Chrome Prince]

Make that 10% ;)

Actually you could make a case for running two strategies under the one banner - the fluctuating parameter and then the price available parameter.

I think your own decision making process may have subconsciously or consciously been doing this anyway, so you are some 35 units better off than me now :eek:

[Mark]

This is where I admit that although I have been using your idea, and thank you for it, I have still been doing my ratings, and then betting accordingly.

The 'too big' principal is what I thought you meant when you said not to go chasing prices. As the main aim (I believe) is to mostly lay favs that perhaps shouldn't be, then chasing them out for the sake of laying doesn't sit well. I used Amberino as an example because if my memory serves me correctly you would have had to have gone to something like 8.20 to lay it. To me that is madness, as after all, IAS did have it opening fav, and again if I remember correctly if it had drifted one more tick it would been a back. But I don't know that laying every fav unless they drift 41% is the answer. Think back to last Wednesday when Blue Grouse won the last at Ballarat. It opened equal fav and even after firming I was able to get 5.80. Under your revised rule this would become a lay, and a terrible result. I realise this is only one example but I think you can see what I'm getting at.

I don't think that I've been getting better prices than you but I agree I have been very selective. Today I bet in only 6 races for a 1 unit profit, but I think that betting in every race would have yielded a loss of approximately 12 units. (just remembered you've already said this). On Monday I had 11 bets for 1 unit profit, where betting in every race I would have lost roughly 20 units, and probably given it away.

I sort of use the 20% rule but am not rigid about it. If I like a horse and the system says lay, I simply wait for the next race, similarly if the system (original rules) says back and I don't like it I won't bet. This in particular has saved me from backing a lot of shorties that have been beaten.

I've also had some "half bets". The last at Wyong was a good example today. The opening fav was Enz Of Time @ 4, it blew to 8, and I took 12.5 on BF even though I gave it little chance of winning. So I had half my normal unit.

You may not be interested but you've done me a favour with this system so I will hopefully be able to return the favour. If you like I will email you my ratings for tomorrows races and you may want to incorporate them into your betting. In the last 2 days I have had 3 half bets and got it right twice, and I've passed on 24 races and been right 16 times. Fluke that they're both 66% in my favour. You don't have to be right that often when you're staying out of lays that win.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,

Well that answers one of my queries, I couldn't get my head around how you must have been getting such better prices than me, other than you were filtering further from my criteria.

When I mentioned chasing prices, I meant basically take the offered price but if it goes against you too dramatically or you can't get matched, don't comprimise more than a few cents. But yes, it does apply as far as percentages go.

As far as Amberino goes, I got stung for $8.40, the final IAS being $6.50, so in retrospect and considering what we've posted today, it should have been a bet rather than a lay. Take just a few of these each month and it makes a big difference.

As a matter of fact, there have been quite a few of these such cases in May that could have been profited from.

Come In Spanner
Lakeful
Gunna Happen
Danzylum
Banksdale
Char

etc etc just in the last few days.

And of course Ocho Rios today :(

I'm glad that no matter how you use it, it's been of some benefit ;)

You've already helped me refine some things in return, so thanks to you also!

I have a feeling that the initial theory still stacks up, but is predominantly dependant on the price you get or have to lay at, and depending on what's available, can reverse the strategy purely because of prices and value.

[Crackone]

Thanks again Crome as you said I have used your system and have found another one by doing so.
ps. don't lay those 100 raters

[Chrome Prince]

Within the next few days, will send out a new spreadsheet to those who contacted me.

Todays result was 6.08 units profit using the revised parameters ;)

[AngryPixie]

Thanks Chrome.

[Chrome Prince]

I'm still working the kinks out on the spreadsheet, as I'm only getting half an hour a day to do it. Will send it as soon as it's finished, but it might be early next week. Not enough time :(

Anyhow, today's profit was 5.92 units.

[diogenes]

G'day
Sent you an email but didn't get a response. I'm left wondering, does that mean I'm going to get the data requested or .....?

[Chrome Prince]

Diogenes,

Please send me a blank email with your forum username as the subject and when the spreadsheet is finished I'll send it to you, no problems.

You may not have included your forum username, or I may have missed it completely, sorry.

The reason for the delay, is that I'm acquiring extra information, using the method daily, working on an update to my database and being called out on computer jobs, and there just isn't enough hours in the day.

[Chrome Prince]

Today was breakeven, lost 0.03 units

Working on the spreadsheet in the wee hours http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon9.gif

[Chrome Prince]

7.43 units profit today

[diogenes]

Diogenes,

Please send me a blank email with your forum username as the subject and when the spreadsheet is finished I'll send it to you, no problems.

You may not have included your forum username, or I may have missed it completely, sorry.

The reason for the delay, is that I'm acquiring extra information, using the method daily, working on an update to my database and being called out on computer jobs, and there just isn't enough hours in the day.Thank you and no problemo, I have sent that to you....scrolling back for the addy I got to have another chuckle at the "Catchit" commentary.
Making a profit today is impressive enough, I am keen to have a look at this system.

[Chrome Prince]

Yeah Catchit ran second at the Sunshine Coast yesterday as well.

You should have heard the call - had me rolling on the floor....almost.

:D

[Chrome Prince]

Update sent to those on the list.

Unfortunately, I can't send to anymore people, there are now 15 people on the list and that's my maximum allowance out in the marketplace.

The spreadsheet does not have all the entries it should, but I'm sure you'll get the drift (pun intended).

Pay particular attention to the way I use it explained in the email, it's working a treat now that the kinks are ironed out.

For myself, 200 units profit in the last two months on Australian racing, and considerably more on overseas racing.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

14.12 units profit for Sunday :D

[Mark]

Chrome

I must say that I am confused.
Your study of over 56000 races shows that backing favs that shorten by more than 3% shows a profit. Now the same study shows that laying all opening favs, except those that drift by more than 40% is showing a profit. Do both sets show a profit, if so is it more profitable to lay?

Mark
I do prefer to lay favs rather than back them.

[watsonnek]

14.12 units profit for Sunday :D

1776 [-15] members & our many quests completely in the dark Chrome Prince :confused: but well done anyway ;) please continue to keep us [un] informed :)

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

I must say that I am confused.
Your study of over 56000 races shows that backing favs that shorten by more than 3% shows a profit. Now the same study shows that laying all opening favs, except those that drift by more than 40% is showing a profit. Do both sets show a profit, if so is it more profitable to lay?

Mark
I do prefer to lay favs rather than back them.

Yes it does show a profit, but for some reason the last two months show a loss. That reason is shrinking dividends.

Therefore it is now not profitable, but may be at some stage in the future.

[Crackone]

[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]Yes it does show a profit, but for some reason the last two months show a loss. That reason is shrinking dividends.

Hi Chrome I have noticed it is alot harder to get a good price these days. When Betfair started you could easily get 50% over IAS price , not now. Prices are not much better than the tabs.

[Chrome Prince]

4 units loss today.

Crackone,

Yes in some cases where there is a push for a horse, it is very hard to get a better price, but when they drift it is easy to get up to 40% or more better than the TAB price.
Watching the movements live daily, it is obvious that bookmakers are laying off into the market (judging by the volume of single large bets) and driving the prices somewhat.

As an aside, there was a horse in the UK last night that had it's third hurdle start in seven days and won. This distance was more than three miles and he just snuck in by a photo. But it's amazing that a horse can perform so highly after three very tough runs in 7 days.

[Crackone]

[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]4 units loss today.


Watching the movements live daily, it is obvious that bookmakers are laying off into the market (judging by the volume of single large bets) and driving the prices somewhat.

Yes they do drive the prices, up and down. Have you noticed the large bets just disappear, often thought it may a ploy to take the smaller odds!

[Chrome Prince]

Yes and notice it's always $5,000 $6,000 and $7,000 etc.

[catweazle]

1776 [-15] members & our many quests completely in the dark Chrome Prince :confused: but well done anyway ;) please continue to keep us [un] informed :)


I think that should be -16 watsonnek, CP & 15 others :)

[watsonnek]

Thanks catweazle, I stand corrected ;)

[suds]

would you mind recaping in general what this thread is all about..started perusing but got lost midstream (and its a pretty big stream LOL)...thanks in advance..

[Chrome Prince]

The gist of the thread is taking advantage of bookmakers fluctuations as an indicator to the chances of a horse (nothing new) and then selectively laying or backing them based solely on the margin of fluctuation, thereby making a profit on an otherwise losing propostion.

However, I don't want this thread to take a negative turn simply because I can't publicise it on the forum.

Therefore, I think it's time to end the thread.

Thanks to all contributors and spectators.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's an updated graph of the profit trends since going live. Hope a few of you stuck with it and made a killing :D

<a href="http://www.melbournecomputerclub.org/racecensus/Bookie.gif"></a>

[Chrome Prince]

<A href="http://www.melbournecomputerclub.org/racecensus/Bookie.gif"><FONT face=Tahoma>Graph</FONT></A>

To explain the vertical column, it's the number of units profit.

The summary goes

2,868 wagers
191.76 units profit
6.69% POT

[thorns]

Just been looking over old threads and came across this one. Quick question, is it still making a good profit since your last postings?

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Sure is Thorns ;)

Think I emailed you about this today.

Good luck with it.