Raw Instinct
18th May 2007, 08:03 PM
Been awhile since I have done anything like this but figured this was my fav carnival of the year might aswell get the ball rolling for some of the other guys if they want to have a go.
Race 1: Hard looking race to start the day alot of question marks with some good horses fresh and the fitter horses being possible question marks at the distance. Single Rose is a must have on previous form can't imagine it's odds will be very attractive if it is thought to be a chance of winning, I thought Suubird was a value chance in the race drawn barrier 3 with Pengelly on board if he can hold this horse up close enough till around 250m out with cover then it has a chance to take this race out at nice odds with a bit of race fitness on it's side. For 3rd I had maybe Sammy's Illusion but I really found this to be a tough position to sought out giving chances also to Prend and Atapi fresh might be worth a box trifecta early on. Bet here would probably be E/W Suubird unless conditions change drastically over night or odds don't reflect value.
Race 2: Beauty Watch will be backed as if it is unbeatable in this and maybe it could be as the WFA scale but I have had a big opinion of Rash Promise for awhile now and the last run IMO did nothing to change that with any luck I can easily see it taking this race out it just might not settle to far away from the leaders in this race from an ideal draw. For third I think Hello Possums and Skyleda are the chances it what looks to be a fairly average race depth wise, I know Headturner and De Beers are former quality animals but it has been along time since either has shown there best and until i see something they are gone for me. My bet here is Rash Promise for the win I think she is good enough hopefully I am proved right.
Race 3: Another very tough race here with some real quality horse flesh amoungst them, My Hangover is the one I have settled on here has some quality form in NZ and her 1st up run here was a cracker when she was off the track all the way only being a beaten less than a length, Fritz's Princess was probably the best of good things beaten in the Silk Stocking last start it will be interesting to see how she runs here she is good enough to win this no doubt luck in running could be the important thing, Reverenza was a bottler of a run last start also in the Silk Stocking gets another shocking barrier here but also has the master Darren Beadman on board to counteract that she certainly isn't beyond winning this really hit the line well late last start. outside of those I didn't mind Flame of Sydney, O'Tonda & Poiym maybe worth a trifecta see how things are going early on before comitting to that though. I think E/W My Hangover if the odds allow if not just back it for the win
Race 4: I don't have a great deal of interest here other than Pepperwood I really like this horse he grew wings late last start a repeat performance I think can get him close in this I like Scriven on board again aswell. Pepperwood is my bet here he will be E/W odds I would expect be disappointed if he isn't atleast running on into the placings.
Race 5: Time to get that dart board out here jesus this is a ************ hard race to sort out. This is the last day for me and My Lady's Chamber I just pray to god that Purton doesn't have a brain fart during the running today just give her every chance and I will be happy if she isn't good enough then so be it, Deloraine is an obvious include on a nice run last start as is Doug's Mate IMO very nice run behind a horse alot of people seem to think is capable of winning the Doomben if that is the case then this has to be a chance in this race, Lasoron is another that falls into this category aswell and also has Beadman on board which can't hurt either. E/W My Lady's Chamber crossing my fingers she gets a clear run at them.
Race 6: funnily enough yet another horrific race to try and work out however if the rain stays away and the track is a good track then Double Dare moves right to the top of my calculations some will argue that he will be better at Eagle Farm I disagree I think Doomben will suit him better he doesn't have a long sprint on him if he settles about midfield which he can do with the draw he has gotten then I am sure Oli can kick this bloke home, Dangers there are many of them The Jackal was devastating at the Gold Coast but I question whether he can return that same performance here tomorrow it sure was a gut buster last start and for that reason I am taking him on here. Enrique is a quality horse and can pull some big runs out at times as can Mr Hornblower, Legendary Man and Masai Pride are place chances atleast aswell in a ridiculosly hard race, I do like Hard To Catch but the weight doesn't suit him here. If the rain stays away then Double Dare is my pick if it comes then I might settle on Legendary Man E/W.
Race 7: I pretty much have no interest in this race but if there is a knock out chance I believe it comes from either Drac's Back, Fooram, Grand Zulu or Lachlan River. No Bet here unless I am flying
Race 8: Not really interested in betting in this either but I thought Danleigh was a good run at the Coast last start Bianca wouldn't shock me at all if it won I also gave a rough chance to Satsang aswell. No Bet again unless I am flying and even if I am it won't be much of a bet
Race 1: Hard looking race to start the day alot of question marks with some good horses fresh and the fitter horses being possible question marks at the distance. Single Rose is a must have on previous form can't imagine it's odds will be very attractive if it is thought to be a chance of winning, I thought Suubird was a value chance in the race drawn barrier 3 with Pengelly on board if he can hold this horse up close enough till around 250m out with cover then it has a chance to take this race out at nice odds with a bit of race fitness on it's side. For 3rd I had maybe Sammy's Illusion but I really found this to be a tough position to sought out giving chances also to Prend and Atapi fresh might be worth a box trifecta early on. Bet here would probably be E/W Suubird unless conditions change drastically over night or odds don't reflect value.
Race 2: Beauty Watch will be backed as if it is unbeatable in this and maybe it could be as the WFA scale but I have had a big opinion of Rash Promise for awhile now and the last run IMO did nothing to change that with any luck I can easily see it taking this race out it just might not settle to far away from the leaders in this race from an ideal draw. For third I think Hello Possums and Skyleda are the chances it what looks to be a fairly average race depth wise, I know Headturner and De Beers are former quality animals but it has been along time since either has shown there best and until i see something they are gone for me. My bet here is Rash Promise for the win I think she is good enough hopefully I am proved right.
Race 3: Another very tough race here with some real quality horse flesh amoungst them, My Hangover is the one I have settled on here has some quality form in NZ and her 1st up run here was a cracker when she was off the track all the way only being a beaten less than a length, Fritz's Princess was probably the best of good things beaten in the Silk Stocking last start it will be interesting to see how she runs here she is good enough to win this no doubt luck in running could be the important thing, Reverenza was a bottler of a run last start also in the Silk Stocking gets another shocking barrier here but also has the master Darren Beadman on board to counteract that she certainly isn't beyond winning this really hit the line well late last start. outside of those I didn't mind Flame of Sydney, O'Tonda & Poiym maybe worth a trifecta see how things are going early on before comitting to that though. I think E/W My Hangover if the odds allow if not just back it for the win
Race 4: I don't have a great deal of interest here other than Pepperwood I really like this horse he grew wings late last start a repeat performance I think can get him close in this I like Scriven on board again aswell. Pepperwood is my bet here he will be E/W odds I would expect be disappointed if he isn't atleast running on into the placings.
Race 5: Time to get that dart board out here jesus this is a ************ hard race to sort out. This is the last day for me and My Lady's Chamber I just pray to god that Purton doesn't have a brain fart during the running today just give her every chance and I will be happy if she isn't good enough then so be it, Deloraine is an obvious include on a nice run last start as is Doug's Mate IMO very nice run behind a horse alot of people seem to think is capable of winning the Doomben if that is the case then this has to be a chance in this race, Lasoron is another that falls into this category aswell and also has Beadman on board which can't hurt either. E/W My Lady's Chamber crossing my fingers she gets a clear run at them.
Race 6: funnily enough yet another horrific race to try and work out however if the rain stays away and the track is a good track then Double Dare moves right to the top of my calculations some will argue that he will be better at Eagle Farm I disagree I think Doomben will suit him better he doesn't have a long sprint on him if he settles about midfield which he can do with the draw he has gotten then I am sure Oli can kick this bloke home, Dangers there are many of them The Jackal was devastating at the Gold Coast but I question whether he can return that same performance here tomorrow it sure was a gut buster last start and for that reason I am taking him on here. Enrique is a quality horse and can pull some big runs out at times as can Mr Hornblower, Legendary Man and Masai Pride are place chances atleast aswell in a ridiculosly hard race, I do like Hard To Catch but the weight doesn't suit him here. If the rain stays away then Double Dare is my pick if it comes then I might settle on Legendary Man E/W.
Race 7: I pretty much have no interest in this race but if there is a knock out chance I believe it comes from either Drac's Back, Fooram, Grand Zulu or Lachlan River. No Bet here unless I am flying
Race 8: Not really interested in betting in this either but I thought Danleigh was a good run at the Coast last start Bianca wouldn't shock me at all if it won I also gave a rough chance to Satsang aswell. No Bet again unless I am flying and even if I am it won't be much of a bet