Doomben Races Saturday

[maverick1993]

Race 1,
Not an easy race to work out,,,Harbour Magic on top, Good run 1st up , ok 2nd up, good barrier and Jockey,,should be around the 10's ..High Academy was excellent last start,,doesnt win enough to get excited about him but Arnold is a plus and there does look like theres some speed in the race...Old belvedere does have ability and was solid last start....
I'll settle on Harbour Magic and could get e/w's,,,,
Race 2,
Upilio with the freshn off the good barrier and the initial speed to take advantage of it looks a real good bet here...I'd like to be on Elegant Roi after his last fantastic run but he'll be giving Upilio a start and will find it hard to run him down (dont like Stewart either),,,,thought Deception bay and Roman Squir both horses suited and will be taking off with Elegant Roi from the back,,
I like Upilio but would want atleast 5's...
Race 3,
I've been waiting for Lassie MActavish over this distance,,,12's for the win and a nice 3.75 for the place currently ,,i expected alittle better but the 3.75 is ok..,,,Kyros will be short and the southern juvies do look stronger than ours ..the 1350 barrier posie is ok at Doomben so i wouldnt be worried about the barrier....Sams Express looks suited by the rise in distance ,,i'm not a huge fan of the Anglias and Sams Express doesnt look overly impressive in the flesh,,but you cant argue the form..
I'll be on Lassie at the value (if there is any) , but playing with the exotics with Kyros and Sam..
Race 4,
Sectagonal drawn badly but i like this horse,,,theres a stack of speed here with Qualo,Tornado Alley ,Sheezavalue and Anduril all going forward,,,i went looking for something just off them that could swoop,,,Sectagonal fits the bill especially with the litle freshn..Zoes Lad a backmarker that could add some value to the exotics..
Race 5,
Mandela does look to strong,.,no price at all though,,,Cypress Point very impressive and nice odds atm ,,the extra distance is ideal ..brave Lancer i expect to improve ,,,I like Dunn on Bohemian Dancer ,,he's such a good jock at finding the gaps and this will suit this horse ..didnt do much last start which is a worry ..should be huge odds but definetly a bolter with a knock out chance..
Mandela to short,,Cypress Point e/w,,spec on Bohemian dancer if you nuts like me..
Race 6,
How impressive was Prince of Truth last start,,very nicely bred to,,,looks a very promising horse..FortnWon is ticking along nicely for the derby and should be running into the money here.....Galen up to a distance i think will suit him and fitter,,hes very tough and i like him with Arnold on and from the good barrier..
After watching the replay of prince of truths last run its hard not to back him..at 3.50 i'll be on ..if hes to short i'll be having a spec e/w on Galen as i think FortnWon is not quite there yet,,,
Race 7,
Not a good betting race for me,,,i think Goldy will be to strong,,shes toughened up and looked good at the coast...I know the 1350m and against the boys is a different story but its hard to argue times ect...TT has had a few things that have interupted his prep and i think he needs to be on top of his game to beat her...Malcom,GeeIjane and Royal Ida look good...I'm still liking Mitanni for the straddie (as well as GeeIJane),,just wondering with the change of owners if the horse will be settled,,,i expected Shane to be easy on him last start as he didnt have much of a chance..and he was but I think he'll really have a go tomorrow and see exactly where Mittani is at..
If you like funny results,,(remember Desert War ,Reigning to win) then Mittani is worth having something on...maybe you could get 10's tomorrow...personally i'll be haviing fun with the 1st4's as its a jackpot...
Race 8,
I'm a fan of Snipers bullet,,,he is a class animal and even with the weight i'll be on..hes a big horse that can carry it and i'm confident hes a class above these guys.....Prince Leo 7 kilos less and raced well last start..Go Sequalo with the good barrier and Seamer on board can run time to be competitive in this...should get a price as they'll gamble with him with that weight,,,he'll have to be ordinary in the mounting yard for me to be jump off.

Best bets. Upilio, Sectagonal, Prince of Truth, Snipers Bullet
best e/w's, Harbour Magic, Lassie mactavish, Cypress Point

Sydney (track ?)
oakland Lad (hard race but i love this horse) , Canary Island, Shinkickin Cowgirl, Presto Vite.
some value in these selections
Melbourne
Red For lou, Lucky Secret, Anias
Adelaide
Jest for fun
Belmont
Junoro
Gold Coast
Two Seasons
Belmont
Best View

a few to many selctions but scratchings and track conditions cull a few..

Good Luck all :)

[Raw Instinct]

Not overly excited about todays races to be honest but since Mav has put thie up I will share my thoughts.

Race 1: Harbour Magic was a good run 1st up and does have a decent 2nd up record in what isn't a strong field, I also liked Old Belvedere's 1st run in OZ he really hit the line hard whether he can sit closer with a good draw could be interesting if so he probably wins, High Academy showed some glimpses of form last start and as I have said this isn't a strong race so I don't feel he would need to find his best form to be atleast a place chance in this race. I can't split Harbour Magic and Old Belvedere so I might just wait and see how the odds pan out if they are both good I'll probably have something on them both

Race 2: I have always liked Roamn Squire and freshened up here at his right trip on a track he usually races well on I think he will be in the finish, Elegant Roi's last run was nothing short of sensational he just grew wings late but there were alot of horses that ran on well in that race so maybe the run was a little flattering, for third I like Charvicky he relishes this track and trip would have gone close last start with a clear run at them aswell my other chances are Upillio, Deception Bay & Friendly Embrace in a tough race to sought out. As I said I like Roman Squire and will back him here if the odds are right would like to something around $10

Race 3: Not a big fan of this race to be honest the only horse I was thinking of backing was Only Feathers if the odds were juicy enough I think he is good enough to win one of these races has a nice draw and a good jockey on board today. Not real keen might have a little E/W on Only Feathers

Race 4: I like Stylish Qualo here think he will get a nice run off a hot speed and he certainly can fly late at times this just might be the right race for him, Zoe's Lad is another that can fly late however I would expect that he will be coming from the tail where I feel that Stylish Qualo will be settled about midfield, Other than those 2 I give chances to Tornado Alley, Show Biz Kid & Picture Book could be a good trifecta race this one. I like Stylish Qualo here hopefully the odds will be there to have a crack at him

Race 5: Mandela looks tough to beat here his last win was as impressive as any I have during this carnival so far Cypress Point was a good run behind Mandela last start and does meet him well at the weights in this not sure if that is enough to turn the result around, I to like Bohemian Dancer for the place a little as Mav does so maybe we might be both destined for padded rooms by the end of the day. Probably a no bet race will see how I am going at this point

Race 6: Not interested in this race at all to be honest might be the worst Rough Habit I have seen I would be surprised if I back anything in the race to be honest but if I do Resolution might be the way I go he is here for the Derby but I won't be surprised if he takes this one out.

Race 7: Maybe I am nuts but this isn't a 2 horse race as alot of people think it is Malcolm has a sensational record at the trip and with Gold Edition and Takeover Target in the race then it should be run along at a decent clip which will suit him if he can stay in touch early and settle about midfield then he is going to be hard to hold off late, Mitanni is the other danger with Gee I Jane I feel would love to Hard To Catch run on hard aswell but WFA doesn't suit him at all. Malcolm is my bet here won't put my house on it or anything bu I will have a bit of a bet on him

Race 8: Gehtto Blaster the horse to beat here IMO at the weights he can fly home and at almost equal weights with my 2nd pick Prince Leo I think he can beat him, Sniper's Bullet is all class but he will have to be to beat the other 2 giving them nearly 7kgs each. Ghetto Blaster to win and finish the day off nicely

[crash]

Old Belvedere looks good in r1 but the odds will be terrible. I thought Cool Scene [Percer likes this one too] might be a better bet at e/w odds as got locked away last start and couldn't get a run from b4. gets b11 today and will be able to settle nicely midfield and will get a decent crack at them, I like that Plumb kid and the weight drop too.

Proudly Aggro in r4 gets an e/w chance to keep out of the carpark today with alley 4. At very good odds, might be worth an e/w or place bet.

Takeover Target for me today, but it's a no bet race.

With the blinkers on and 3rd. up, I think Wesley Manor can run a bit of a race in r8. Great jockey and trainer combo.

[Raven]

To my eye, Gold Edition hasnt been accellerating in here last 2 races, its been pure one-paced speed. Not a good sign for a horse stepping up in class. Her only hope is to have too big a break on Takeover Target at the 200m.

If any pressure is applied before then, it could be another Desert War scenario, it will walk late & wont run a place. Malcolm & Mittani & even Royal Ida & Black Ink will be stronger late, so if she feels the pinch its goodnight.

My guess is Ford on Takeover Target won't let her get out of reach, so I think she is beatable & unders. Im gonna price some quinella conbo's & look for value around them.
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[mv2040]

when a race is run at a pace that is set by gold edition no horse will be accelerating, its an illusion that horses are going faster at the end of a race than at the start (except in really slowly run races).

i think she will brain them!

[Magivor]

Like Harbour Magic.
other bets

Adelaide
So Ready
Melb
Sopratutto
Ra Sun
Bris
So You
Sam's Express.
Syd
Double Dip

[Silver_and_sand]

Race 2: Upilio
Race 3: Kyros
Race 4: Sheezvalue and Stylish Qualo
Race 5: Sophistication (maybe each way bet at these odds)
Race 7: Gold Edition and Takeover Target, though at their current prices, it's probably not worth while betting this race.

Good Luck!

[maverick1993]

well done Raw,,,very nice divie on Roman Squire :) i took unders at 4.50 for upilio who got out to late,,,stupid stupid boy,,
Harbour Magic with the cushy run very ordinary in the 1st...
not a good start for me,,,not liking my turn on the computer so far :(

[Raw Instinct]

Yea that was great thanks Mav I thought he would be $7-$8 so $11.70 was very nice indeed certainly a better start than I have been having the last couple of weeks, Was wondering what happened to Harbour Magic in the 1st sounded like it had the gun run

[maverick1993]

what butcher of a ride ,,Kyros should have won by a mile,,,Lassie got smashed on the turn,,,,,atleast got some of the exotics ...
sad news in Adelaide,,what a shocking fall ,,you'd have to alittle nuts to be a jockey..

[Horse Whisperer]

well i havnt had a bad start to the day, just got home so ill post some tips up and for the record my bets for the first two were Motivate and i backed both Roman Squire & Elegant Roi in the 2nd. (i tipped em in the KISS comp so im not lying :P)
R4 Tornado Alley
R5 Mandela
R6 Fort N Won
R7 only bettong because its the 10000. Ill have Takeover Target
R8 Wesley Manor

[maverick1993]

woooohooo i love the friscos :) Oakland Lad ,,you beauty !

[maverick1993]

woooohooo i love the friscos :) Oakland Lad ,,you beauty !

protest ?? oooops :(

[maverick1993]

protest ?? oooops :(

dismissed woohooo needed this :)

[Horse Whisperer]

also dont mind So You in Mandela's race.

[maverick1993]

not minding Sydney...6.90 the place Canary Island :) looks a deadish track doomben..Goldie looks really hard to beat now...Malcom and gee i Jane will be the ones that will like the sting out..
Mitanni if the track cuts up will have to get off that inside.....dont know why they are getting into this track,,it hasnt been raining ??

[Horse Whisperer]

mav there was some rain last night, i played golf at carindale this morning and there was a fair bit of water lying around so there must have been some heavy showers come through.

[diogenes]

BR 7...I misse d it....who came 4th???

[watsonnek]

BR 7...I misse d it....who came 4th???

Black Ink ;)

[diogenes]

Goodonya to both wattsonek and black ink, got my first quartet ever @ $172!
While it isn't enough to recover from todays hiding it certainly eases the pain.Now, what to throw it all at to get in front for the day???Lol

[diogenes]

[Now, what to throw it all at to get in front for the day???Lol[/QUOTE]
Hmmm, the More Than Ready offspring have won all over the country today and there is one yet to race AR8 Ready For More....
Since I have a day of win bets running places or misses I guess I am looking for omens...lol

[maverick1993]

Results and summary

Race 1,
Harbour Magic had the good run and was entittled to do more,,,,the winner dictated and was to good,,,never seen High Academy ridden that close before,,,,ordinary race.
Race 2,
I was all over Upilio,,and he was desperatly unlucky,,never realy got out until it was all over,,,Roman Squire ridden very well had all the momentum...Elegant Roi and Charvicky good runs,,
Race 3,
Backed Kyros here aswell as Lassie,,and was very dissapointed with the ride,,,thought Lassie was very ordinary even with the check,,SamsExpress has been going well and a good win for the sire,,
got something back here on the exotics,,
RAce 4,
Sheezavalue very impresive,,Sectagonal ridden perfect was no match....surprised nothing really took her on but i just dont think they could keep up with her,,
Race 5,
E/w Cypress point who got a mile back and was never a chance,,didnt really finish off aswelll,,,,,thought Brave Lancer was ok,,Mandela and Bikie made up some good ground.
RAce 6,
Prince of Truth was ok i suppose,,did get squeezed alittle,,,i was very impressed with FortnWon,,huge run ..
Race 7,
good race to stay out of for me,,,,the track was alittle ordinary and i thought this might have helped Goldie,,,,Class told in the end,,,didnt get the 1st4 as i was hoping a GeeIjane or Royal Ida would get a place..
Race 8,
Snipers Bullet was very game with the weight,,,i thought he was going to cruise past Cocktail,,but Cassidy got everything out of this horse,,,

All in all a shocker for me in Brissie,,,the 2nds again really kill the bottom line,,
7 races with only the one result..

Sydney
wooohooo now how good was this 2 big wins and a nice place divie,,,Oakland Lad , Shinkicking Cowgirl and Canary Island ,,,huge for me ...Presto Vite had no room,,thought the run was ok ,,

Melbourne
Lucky Secret (love this horse wonder if the horse is coming up here ??) red for lou and Anias not in the hunt..
small loss Melbourne
Adelaide
Jest For fun,,becoming costly this horse 2nd,,
Gold Coast
TwoSeasons,,,,yes another 2nd,,
Perth
Junoro,,,3rd ,,did ok though,,

A profit thanks to Sydney..really dissapointed with Brissis as its usually my best venue....dissapointed i took the 21's for Gee I jane in the straddie who was below average yesterday and is 31's now...(no LaMontagna 26's for me this year)
been a tough couple of weeks but its good to have something in the pocket for once :)