Flemington Emirates Stakes Day

[crash]

Can the Hussler win another one?

I don't believe so. In fact I going to lay him tomorrow on Betfair. He has scored a shocking barrier for the first time and is rising 400m in distance. Also he steps out of his age group tomorrow and is 6th up in a G1. That's a long time up for a 3yr. old at this level.

No doubt about his future ability, but I think he is being flogged to death because he is a gelding. If he wasn't, he'd be in a paddock by now after his recent efforts.

I'll go Sonic Quest and for an e/w roughy, Roman Squire a backmarker who only needs one decent run at them down the outside over this distance. Has the Barrier.

[mv2040]

Good luck with your bets crash...

Have been raving about Extend its last 3 starts and its only delivered once but think back to 2000 tomorrow will suit.

Also very keen on Translate, up to 2000 tomorrow is perfect!

Weekend Hussler will have to be good tomorrow...

[darkydog2002]

SONIC QUEST

WONDERFUL WORLD.

Cheers.
darky.

[Horse Whisperer]

Agree with darky, Wonderful World looks the best in that race, this is definitely where Weekend Hussler will be at his most vulnerable. Roman Squire good e/w bet up to the 1600m.

[mjr]

I think that WH is the best lay of the day. I will have something e/w SHINZIG at the price third up and ready to fire. It has good NZ form in GP1 races. So heres hoping.

[maverick1993]

Looks another hard day tomorrow,,,,Got lucky MC day with Flash Trick,,Oaks day was a good day to leave alone
and tomorrow looks just as hard but i'm game,,,

Race 1,
Barwons Express seems interesting,,,drops weight from his last good run and Ollie is aboard,,looks a good e/w
at 9's and 3's the place...Gee up back to a more suitable distance isnt hopeless..

Race 2,
Justsay Sumthink gets back so the barrier shouldnt be to much of a concern..she'll be strong at the end and has the
nice long straight to wind up....at 10's at the moment but i'd want better than that..

Race 3,
Pacino back to the 2000m should be suited,,,Extend was good last start but finds a way to get beaten every time...
looks a good exacta...Pacino 5's is tempting,,will see what i get tomorrow,,

Race 4.
Teskara 8's looks one of bets of day,,looked real good hitting the line last start ,,,El Mandon will be tough but will he run a strong
1400m ???

RAce 5,
a good race to watch...Miss A looks to have Goldies measure,,wont be as easy as last start though,,,hopefully Stathi gets
Goldie rolling along nice and early..

Race 6,
Roman Squire with no weight flying down the big Flemo straight,,,this is what i've been waiting for,,but hes against a potential
super star in Weekend Hussler who just looks incredible,,you think must be starting to feel the pinch now but 108 at 1200m ??
,,looks better suited this distance,,,,and what about Sonic Quest ,,how good was he last start,,the barrier is a concern but
if he drops out the back he'll be winding up with room on the outside and flying home....
what a race,,weekend hussler leading at the 200m with Scenic Quest and the big striding Roman Squire chasing him out wide..
I'll have something e/w Roman Squire and playing with the exotics..

Race 7,
Cancanelle at 21's,,,the inside barrier might help this horse switch off with a nice smother,,she'll need luck but can sprint
well with that weight and could surprise..meets Anamato better at the weights last time they met and as good as anything in an open race,,Toy of war isnt hopeless either..

Race 8,
Sentire always a couple of lengths off them...i think Williams gives him a couple and at 16's is nice e/w value,,you can bet you life
Nikolic will get Completion to the outside and he'll be flying,,,2.75 isnt to bad at the moment...

Race 9,
Moonlouche at the 11's is very nice,,,,looked good last start,,great trainer and jockey,,distance suits..i think Amyjaye Power
is suited in this field but i promised myself i wouldnt back her again..

Best , Teskara, Completion
Best e/ws , Barwons express, Moonlouche

Perth
Grasspatch Girl (happy with 6.50)
Grafton
Chevron Island
Townsville
Mullett

[darkydog2002]

I will go

FLEM

R 3 H 7

R 7 H 3

MORPH

R 4 H 4
Darky.

[diogenes]

Tough day alright.
I agree with everything said about Weekend Hussler too.
It has been up too long.
It is at it's most vulnerable.
Last win was not powering over the line, maybe tired.
It fits all the factors for a lay bet/ high upside low down etc.
Quality competition in WW, Sonic Quest Niconero
It fits all criteria
Except one.
Why on earth would you risk laying one of the only freaks in the country?
If it does hold form it will win effortlessly.
Its main rival has drawn inside and is mostly out of contention having never won from there.
I would much rather lay Extend for the same benefit.
I'm going to risk 15% of my winnings from The Huss and grab a $3:50 bet from the layers at Betfair on The Huss to win today for a win of a months salary.
See you at Betfair :)
Others for a look today
Spectacular Saint
Fenton Hall
R4Lou
Completion+Desert Master Exacta
Harvard
Good luck all.
Go The Huss

[crash]

There are more challenges in the Emirates that 1st appears. Also include among the obvious, Orange County, Shinzig, Lord of the Dance, and the best e/w bet in the race Roman Squire. Evens for Hussler with the barrier he's coped for a Flem 1400m is the rip-off of the year.

Also, there are a heck of a lot of tired horses looking for a paddock going around today and Weekend Hussler is one of them. If he wins today we have a potentially great horse in the making ........if he goes on with it as a 4yr. old.

For me Sonic Quest for a win and Roman Squire for an e/w.
Tri: 5/14 x 2/5/7/10/14 x 2/5/7/10/11/14

Going for value here, 2x win bets:
r1/ 11,12
r2/6,16
r3/Extend, Dance on Board
r4 Wind Sheer, Lion's Domain
r7/ Red forLou, Trick of Light
r8/ Desert Master
r9/ Harvard, Muzdaher

Have a good one!

[Chuck]

i dont mind Niconero in the Emirates. 2000m wasnt his go, and was against the best we have (bar the one he's racing today :p) drops back down in class and distance, was a great 2nd behind divine madonna before the cox plate, i think is worth a go at $11. other chances, Roman Squire is way overs at $26, Orange Country could surprise. but really, as diogenes said if Weekend Hussler's form holds up it should just win easily

[Raw Instinct]

Haven't had time to do form for today all I will is go Roman Squire love the horse the trip suits him the track suits whether or not Weekend Hussler or one of the others is to good I don't know but I know he will give his all anyway.

[crash]

Yeah, Roman Squire is one of my black Bookers "needs 1600m with an outside barrier for a good crack at them in the straight over 1600m".

I'm changing one my tips in race 7 to: r7/ Red for Lou, Cancanelle [back to own sex and blinkers first time], both for the win.

[pharfromoz]

#2 WONDEFUL WORLD

[Chuck]

hmmmmm, didnt like the price on El Mandon so i wasnt going to back it - was tossing up between a quinella with $50 roughie Distant Melody or have it stood out in an exacta, had $10 on the exacta and what do you know, the $50 outsider gets up to beat the fav, quinella pays $80 :( also got the trifecta in the third (who didnt) which payed an awesome $16.

[crash]

Anyone who reckons they got the Emirates 1st 4 or even the tri is a lier :-)

Hussler getting thrashed was on the cards, but can anyone believe this result was fair dinkum?
1st 70/1
2nd. 100/1
3rd 60/1

The 3 longest priced horses in the race.

ho ho ho, I smell the breath of the fixer-men!
Early in the jockey rooms[?]:
" Now remember darling, when we tell you to go on Tears I cry, you just go! We'll sort out the placings"

Time to flush the form-guide down the lou from now on.

[crash]

r7

1st 53/1 [11 winless starts at the track!]
2nd 66/1
64/1

Makes one wonder, doesn't it?

[Horse Whisperer]

Is it April 1 today??

[xanadu]

Yeah crash and HORSE WHISPERER,

I don't come to your "turf" very often but I believe this day will go down in infamy!
As you outlined, credibility is being pushed to the limits and for what.....an incredibly huge quaddie result which will gain maximum media exposure?
Have a good one!

[darkydog2002]

Ho Ho.

Once a rooster /Now a feather duster.

darky.

[xanadu]

Ho Ho,
once a turkey...next giblets !
You make some "offal" comments!
For darkydog's benefit...I will now explain the "humour/satire" in my comment:
"offal" rhymes with "awful" and was a smart comment which you probably didn't comprehend old son!
Have a good one!

[rabbitz]

Acording to ch 7,tears was 150 into 100-1 late with that sydney punter Sean Bartholemew snipping $100 win at 150-1 (darwin bookie)then smaller bets along the rails at flemmo ..There will always be dodgy results in races,has been for years..thats why its called gambling

[Horse Whisperer]

rabbitz i think they said it was $1000

Treble in unitab paid 45k, field x field x field would have cost 2816. nice little profit in hindsight :)

[darkydog2002]

The Jockeys Xmas present.

Now what times the boat race.

darky

ps.What time does the glue factory truck arrive.?

[xanadu]

darkydog2002,

There is nothing more than I enjoy than an intellectual "battle" with a worthy opponent....but in your case I believe you are completely unarmed!
Have a good one!

[Sportz]

Hey Darky, you know that email you sent me asking about the good old inside and outside barriers???

Well, take a look at how they went in race 6 and 7.

And Tears I Cry was a last start beaten fav which had finished in the first 4 at each of his last 4 starts, another old favourite of mine.

I reckon the only people who could have won at Flemington today are people who followed quirky betting system like that or maybe lucky numbers or colours or something!

[darkydog2002]

Ah XANADU.

Thank you for your kind comments.

Us interwectuals appreciate it dont we.?

SPORTZ .

Will do and thanks.

[Raw Instinct]

what a day fair dinkum impossible the old man got a win on Hidden Strings no idea where he plucked that from just glad i didn't put to much out here to lose today been a good carnival otherwise.

[crash]

My God, Muzdahar at 10/1 gets done by a nose. My only hope for the day.

The only good thing to happen was her in the kitchen's 'silly' bet in r2/Partiva [$23.40w]. She likes Michelle Payne and her logic was that it was Michelle Payne only ride for the day before having to dash to Geelong [had to be a good chance].
The horse's time over the distance was as good as Royal Asher and the form guide said 'worth serious consideration'!

[Raw Instinct]

Crash

On Oaks day I think been a long week my other half said to me I like Sharkbite it will win well it did she does this to me all the time after I have my bets and her reasoning usually is I like there names that does make things rather interesting.

[mad]

Slaughter, the only word that describes it.

Absolute slaughter.

Maybe one day soon i'll be able to find a Nag with some form and put some money on it, who knows.

[crash]

She had $10 e/w on it so I'm the beggar man this week:-)

Thank God this rotten Spring Carnival is over. Yep, very exciting but hopeless for trying to make a buck as usual [unless your a bookie]. I did make $200 today laying the Hussler, but it was an overall loss for me on the day.

I go onto small bets this time of year. I gave up trying to win at carnivals a very long time ago [mugs only]. Overall through the carnival, I lost as usual, but not much.

[mad]

Just got Grasspatch Girl in WA, my first winner since i was a lad. Of course i only had a pittance on it.

[mad]

On a roll.

Scopaciri in the next.

[crash]

I'll take a $1 on that [all I have left!].

[mad]

Something very familar about that run.

On to next week.

[diogenes]

Well, end of the carnival and the Racing and Gaming industry has all but recovered from the profit slide they endured during the Equine Influenza outbreak.
Funny that.
I got skinned alive, my beloved Weekend Hussler went down and Crash took 200 from me at Betfair :))
I jumped off Pativa, and my big 'get out' bet in the last I decided to be wise so I didn't place the bet on Montechoro.
It , of course, responded by coming home at 20 bucks.
Everything else I backed had lost so that gave me a laugh.
I'm sorry if anyone followed me.
Now, I will say a prayer to the Gods of grain fermentation and worship at their shrine for a little while, just until I forget.

[syllabus23]

I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that with the EI vaccinations we were in for a batch of very strange results.

All of the horses going around at the moment would have recently had their follow-up booster vaccination (two weeks after the first).I reckon that in the next few weeks a degree of sanity will return to form guides.

All of the vested interests have avoided raising this issue for obvious $$$$$ reasons,while the rest of us have been having problems getting our jaws off the ground.

Anyway,,At least we have had the spring carnival and racing is starting to get back on its feet in the eastern states.I guess these things happen and we have to roll with the punches.Having said that,a little bit of honesty wouldn't have gone astray.

[crash]

i wouldn't be blaming all the huge form reversals [throughout the carnival] just on EI vaccinations.

Considering the massive amounts of money involved, mandatory swabbing of all runners after big races wouldn't go astray either!

[maverick1993]

What a day yesterday,,,had to got to Perth to find a winner and Grasspatch Girl ran her usual honest race,,,backed her at 6.50 and again at 750 when she blew out alittle..
after 6 losses in melbourne and 1 in Rocky i really needed it.....
I gave Partiva a place chance in my multis as i thought she'd be on the speed and could hold on...thought Tears I cry with no weight and a good last run a chance of running into maybe 4th,,,,,so these results werent a complete shock to me..
Teskara was awfull...
thought the jockeys fell asleep and gave the race to Hidden Strings..(Cancanelle ran very well considering)

Not a fan of Nikolic,,who i think finds more traffic than peak hour in Sydney..

Got 1 for 11 on Tuesday and 1 for 8 yesterday,,,,,a real struggle but atleast winning enough to keep me out of trouble and back to fight another day..
sort of reminds me of Golf..,,where you usually hit that 1 perfect shot that keeps you coming back for more but spending most of the round trying to find your ball in the rough thinking "what the hell am i doing here".

[mjr]

Just athought from yesterday, for the future have a look at the last at Flem,Watch the run of MOONLOUSHE from start to finish, never once got a look at them from barrier to box.Definately one to watch in the next couple of starts. At long last I finished in front over the four days thanks mainly to SHINZIG e/w and SOVEREING MISS each way. I have found after 40 odd years of being a desperado that the way to go over the carnival is to look for horses that have put in good runs at their last start and are outside the publics vision. Doesnt work all the time but when it does you only need one or two results to turn losing into winning over the carnival. By all means stick to the in market horse s but never be afraid to look outside the box. Anyway we have the Sandown consolation stakes next week, maybe the punting gods will provide a result to appease all.

[crash]

Just athought from yesterday, for the future have a look at the last at Flem,Watch the run of MOONLOUSHE from start to finish, never once got a look at them from barrier to box.Definately one to watch in the next couple of starts. At long last I finished in front over the four days thanks mainly to SHINZIG e/w and SOVEREING MISS each way. I have found after 40 odd years of being a desperado that the way to go over the carnival is to look for horses that have put in good runs at their last start and are outside the publics vision. Doesnt work all the time but when it does you only need one or two results to turn losing into winning over the carnival. By all means stick to the in market horse s but never be afraid to look outside the box. Anyway we have the Sandown consolation stakes next week, maybe the punting gods will provide a result to appease all.

"Look outside the box". Now there's an approach no one ever thought of before!

[mjr]

Hey Crash youre a funny buggar, the reason I said to look outside the box is because everyone has looked inside it and taken nearly everythiong out,but you never know what they may have discarded or dropped so it makes sense to look outside.
BUT I BOW TO FORUM SENIORITY. ALL HAIL CRASH

[crash]

Well I was bored and you set yourself up. All light hearted of course :-)

Yeah your right, but we don't all line up to give away our money by betting on the obvious favorites every race. Most punters here are better than that.

The big problem for punters is 'habit'. They can be losing for years but they will keep doing what they are doing because they are comfortable with it [I do it myself but I think they have improved over the years].

We could talk about value or looking outside the box and a heap of other things until the cows come home, but punters will continue to bet on what they think will win, regardless of price. They will continue to bet in very poor betting races and have too many bets [often a bet in every race on a card]. They are also very unlikely to spend more that 10min. effort deciding which horse to bet on either etc. etc.

[mjr]

I agree with all you say Crash,like many others I do tend to staywith the market horses but after watching the replays of the races many times I conciously go looking for those hidden nuggets each Saturday. Sometimes youre right and most times youre wrong,but when youre right it only takes one to turn your day a nd sometimes your whole year around.HAPPY PUNTING.