Win and Quinella bets.

[michaelg]

I have been betting Win and Quinellas since last Monday on the lower class races with success. I have won every day since then (except x'mas, of course).

I'll list the selections here and hope the forum curse does not kill it.

Moonee Valley R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10.
Dombeen R1 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 12.
Dombeen R3 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8.
Dombeen R4 nos. 1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
Dombeen R7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Dombeen R8 nos. 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Gawler R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 11
Rocky R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 10
Ascot R5 nos. 1, 3, 8, 9, 11
Ascot R8 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 8.

Win outlay is $57
Quinella outlay is $136

[michaelg]

The Win bet did quite well - outlay of $57 for a return of $73.60. The quinellas did not fare as well, only 5 from 10 were successful which was below the average of 7 out of every 10. The outlay was $136 for a return of $106.

Hopefully it will do better today:

Sun Coast R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Canberra R7 nos. 1, 2, 5, 8, 10
Warrnambool R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
Hobart R5 nos. 1, 3, 4, 6, 7.

Win outlay of $22
Quinella outlay of $51.

[crash]

Which numbers are the win bets? Maybe a * next to them.

I'm not very familiar with exotics but have you tried just sticking to 4 selection for the quin. to keep the unit costs down? I think 4 selections is $6 for a unit isn't it?

[Merriguy]

Crash, obviously Michael has backed all for a win. Bit wasteful methinks.

You are right about the quinella on 4 boxed = $6.00.

[Northern]

Scone Race 4 n.o 5 today i know the connections and apparently is going well despite my disapproval of a young app on board claiming 3 id much rather see an Exp Jock on board

[michaelg]

I bet every selection to Win. Since last Monday when I began it has snared some good-priced winners including yesterday's $36.80. So far it has a 100% Win strike rate, which will probably end today. I would prefer to omit the fave but am unable to determine which horse that will be.

I select not less than half the field, minimum runners of 9, and box them all in quinellas. Again I would like to omit the fave as it drastically reduces the outlay, and it seems that the fave (especially if it is a dominant fave) is very often overbet in quinellas (and other exotics, especially the quaddies) producing an "unders" divvy. If 5 horses are selected the quinella outlay is $10, yet if the fave (or any other horse) is added then the outlay increases by 50% to $15, and if successful then the divvy can be "unders". It is an expensive exercise boxing half the field in quinellas but every now and then a good-priced divvy pops up. I'm hoping these low class races produce good divvies which since last Monday has happened somewhat more than expected. In spite of yesterday's poor quinella result it is still showing a healthy profit with a good strike rate.

[crash]

You'll go broke backing 6 horses to win. You can't rely on long-shots for a POT. You will be skinned alive long term. Miss a long-shot at a meeting and your dead in the water. That will happen more times than you will stike one.

[michaelg]

Very true. I'm hoping (maybe misguided) that these selected races might provide an extra edge.

Although we struck the winners and quinellas in today's four races the divvies were disappointing. The Win outlay was $23 and the return was $16.50, the Quinella outlay was $51 for a return of $51.70. If the NSW TAB fave was omitted then the quinella outlay would have reduced to $33 for a return of $43.60.

A few years ago a friend designed a computer program for me to analyse trifecta results. After extensive research it proved that the TAB fave should definitely be omitted from winning and also running second in trifectas. From this it could be assumed with confidence that the fave should not be included in quinellas.

As the method is still showing a good profit over the past 7 days I'll keep on hoping...

[michaelg]

Here we go again. Every qualifying race has more than half the field so the outlay is high relative to the amount of runners per race. Here's hoping...

Townsville R3 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
Townsville R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7
Townsville R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Townsville R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13.

Win outlay of $26.
Quinella outlay of $72

[michaelg]

From today I will change a rule so that the minimum amount of runners in a gualifying race is now 11. I had included races with 9 and 10 starters but on checking the results it shows that although it has a high strike the divvies are too low.

If this rule had applied since listing the selections here from last Saturday, the results would have been:

Win Bets
Saturday - outlay of $25 for a return of $50.60
Sunday - outlay of $6 for a retrun of $4.50
Monday - outlay of $14 for a return of $16.90
Total outlay of $45 for a return of $72.00.

Quinellas
Saturday - outlay of $66 for a return of $62
Sunday - outlay of $15 for a return of $15
Monday - outlay of $42 for a return of $65
Total outlay of $123 for a return of $142

One race today:
Flemington R8 nos. 1, 2, 3,5 ,6, 8

Win outlay of $6
Quinella outlay of $15

[michaelg]

A good day yesterday - the outlay on the Win bet was $6 and the return was $7.90. The outlay on the quinella was $15 and the return was $29.

No qualifying races today.

[michaelg]

One race today:

Rocky R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 .

Win outlay of $7.
Quinella outlay of $21.