Pengo's Corner

[pengo]

Backing SP FAV in small fields, 6 or less runners
E/W bet.
CHELTENHAM
1:06PM AR1, 1-Husson Lightning
DOOMBEN
2:00PM BR2, 4-Eskimo Dan
CHELTENHAM
5:28PM AR8, 3-Predestined


Backing where trainer is Mark Kavanagh
E/W if SP FAV otherwise Place bet only.
Sandown
1:00PM MR2, 2-Costa Marbella


Backing when trainer jockey combo is
Mick Price / C Newitt
E/W if SP FAV otherwise Place bet only.
Sandown
1:36PM MR3, 3-Jenolan


Backing when trainer jockey combo is
G Waterhouse / B Shinn
E/W if SP FAV otherwise Place bet only.
RANDWICK
4:15PM SR6, 11-Bank Robber

[King Cugat]

Pengo's Corner (Block C, mental ward...padded)
^^has the permit been issued for this yet?

ive always been a massive fan of re-zoning in the community.

1 question though. Are there specific visiting hours i should post between?

[pengo]

lol I think the jockey was on autopilot on Husson Lightning, wasn't expecting El Guapo to make a move on him from how race caller suddenly got excited.

[pengo]

Tracking bets to see if they are worthwhile... (not actually betting on).

Backing SP FAV in small fields, 6 or less runners
E/W bet.
DOOMBEN
BR2, 4-Eskimo Dan, 1st
CHELTENHAM
AR1, 1-Husson Lightning, 2nd.
5:28PM AR8, 3-Predestined, 1st


Backing when trainer jockey combo is
G Waterhouse / B Shinn
E/W if SP FAV otherwise Place bet only.
RANDWICK
SR6, 11-Bank Robber, 1st


Backing where trainer is Mark Kavanagh for a place
Sandown
MR2, 2-Costa Marbella, DNP
Cheltenham
AR2, 5-You're On, 3rd.
AR3, 6-Kenwick, 2nd.
AR4, 1-Lord Bramar, DNP


Backing when trainer jockey combo is
Mick Price / C Newitt
E/W if SP FAV otherwise Place bet only.
Sandown
1:36PM MR3, 3-Jenolan, DNP

-----------
What I actually bet, all e/w bets.
Latemail, no 1 tip for both tipsters (radiotab, track tipper; as listed at tabonline.com.au),
Sandown Race 2, 3-Yoobabe, 1st
Cheltenham Race 1, 1-Husson Lightning, 2nd
Cheltenham Race 3, 2-Foolish Lad, 1st
Cheltenham Race 4, 4-Tosstestaroan, 1st
Cheltenham Race 8, 3-Predestined, 1st
Doomben Race 2, 4-Eskimo Dan, 1st

[AngryPixie]

Nice one Pengo. Well done.

[Merriguy]

Yes, well done, Pengo.

I am sure Bhagwan will be able to give some long-term results about that idea --- he knows that QldTab site back to front.

It would be interesting to know who (or what) decides which venues get all three tips.

[pengo]

i think its just the metro races, if so thats fine with me as I have the belief that metro runners are better quality (well at least when it comes to the odds on/sp fav).

Will be interesting to see how long I can go before I bust the bank, I'm thinking about uping the stakes from a single unit to 5 units per bet (either 5 each way or just 5 for a place). To try and build up the bank quicker. Ultimately I'd love to have built the bank up to 1k and then I can just resort to place betting to try and reduce the risk, but bet out massive amounts. It would suck losing, but hey I've only ever invested $50 in this of my money. The rest is all profit.

[Chrome Prince]

Pengo,

Well done today, but I think you need to take a wider perspective.
Favourites in big fields win less but pay more, favourites in small fields win more but pay less, at the end of the day you lose the same amount of money.

This has all been studied a hundred years ago and the end result is that it comes purely down to price. You must get the best price possible to have any hope of eeking out even a small percentage of profit.

i would recommend you consider the price you take, otherwise you'll keep searching for higher and higher strike rate sytems and none will win because of price.

I would recommend partial all-ups on win and place to give you some chance of making a profit.

[pengo]

thanks for the comments,. tho I'm doing this more out of fun and having something invested helps to keep it interesting; so even it doesn't work out to be profitable int he long run, then so be it. If it does, then all the more better.

Anyway...

So far bets have been as follows today.


Methodology: Late mail, radio tab no 1 pick, sp fav, $4 between 1st fav and 2nd fav win odds. Runners no more than 7.

Cranbourne
R1: 8-PALOMA BELLA, 2nd, E/W.
I bet too early on this, but fortunately I staked well enough that I only lost $1 on the bet. If I waited like I normally do and bet about 2-3mins before the jump, I would have seen the horse that eventually won firm up on me and so would have prevented me from betting in this race based on my methodology.

Cheltneham
R1: 3-IMPERIUM, 1st, E/W

[pengo]

Methodology: Late mail, radio tab no 1 pick, sp fav, Runners no more than 8.

E/W bet if $4 between 1st fav and 2nd fav win odds.
Otherwise place bet.

Todays results.
TAREE Race 2
8 MILLIONDOLLARBABY
E/W
1st.

[pengo]

TAREE Race 3
9-CHICKASAN*
Place
2nd
* after bet was made, it moved from SP fav to be 2nd fav.

[King Cugat]

TAREE Race 3
* after bet was made, it moved from SP fav to be 2nd fav.
One of your best Pengo, one of your best.

[pengo]

Heh.

Next up: TAREE Race 4, 5-Total Recall for a place.

Can't select it as part of my method but I like it anyway...as far as where it stands compared to the other horses in the betting market. Assumption is that the market knows best and has looked into barrier trials and against the other horses is the better one... Big gap between my selection and all the other runners.

update: Came 2nd :)

Next up: GEELONG Race 4, 1-EL CAZADOR e/w.
same comment as above, non system selection but based on odds market looks like a good one, would be nice if there was one more runner to bump up the odds and have an extra paying place.. oh well. only betting $1 e/w :P

Update #2 - lol 1st, by 10 lengths!!! haha

[pengo]

TAREE Race 5
2-SO THE CAT SAID
Bet TBC
Jenks gives me a worry in this race, and my selection's place odds aren't too good. Whenever place betting I like to get at least 1.25 if I can.
Will have to see how the odds are closer to the jump

Update: E/W betting.
Update #2: 1st

[pengo]

I think I'm done for system selections today.

Just betting on races now that show a chance when there is a decent gap between 1st and the rest of the field. E/W if there is a decent gap between 1st and 2nd fav or place betting for just a place if its close between 1st and 2nd fav.

MT BARKER Race 1, 3 WEEKLY EXPRESS, E/W

Update: DNP

Next up: TAREE RACE 7, 5-PIMPALA GIFT, E/W

Update#2: DNP

[pengo]

GEELONG, Race 7, SWIFT GAMBLE, Place.

This one just falls outside of the system, due to the amount of runners.

Will be interesting to see how we go with the amount of runners we have.

Update: 2nd.

Next up: IPSWICH, Race 7, 10-SIR TELES, Place.

[AngryPixie]

5-PIMPALA GIFT, E/W


Pimpala Gift was my "Lay of the Day".

[pengo]

IPSWICH, Race 7, 10-SIR TELES, Place.
3rd

Next up: Ipswich Race 8, 2-RAINCOAT, Place.

Last bet of the day, then I'll be posting the bet summaries as it stands.

[Merriguy]

I layed her too (Pimpala Gift). Actually has been a fairly "easy day" (if there is such a thing!) for layers today. How some of those nags could be odds on beats me.

[pengo]

Pimpala Gift was my "Lay of the Day".

I layed her too (Pimpala Gift). Actually has been a fairly "easy day" (if there is such a thing!) for layers today. How some of those nags could be odds on beats me.

I want a refund LOL

[pengo]

3rd

Next up: Ipswich Race 8, 2-RAINCOAT, Place.

Last bet of the day, then I'll be posting the bet summaries as it stands.

2nd

Should have gone the place as posted, ended up going E/W coz it was a standout compared to the rest of the odds.. Just lost..

[pengo]

System #1
Methodology: Latemail, no 1 tip for both tipsters (radiotab, track tipper; as listed at tabonline.com.au).

Sandown Race 2, 3-Yoobabe, 1st
Cheltenham Race 1, 1-Husson Lightning, 2nd
Cheltenham Race 3, 2-Foolish Lad, 1st
Cheltenham Race 4, 4-Tosstestaroan, 1st
Cheltenham Race 8, 3-Predestined, 1st
Doomben Race 2, 4-Eskimo Dan, 1st


System #2
Methodology: Late mail, radio tab no 1 pick, sp fav, $4 between 1st fav and 2nd fav win odds. Runners no more than 7.

Cranbourne R1: 8-PALOMA BELLA, 2nd
Cheltneham R1: 3-IMPERIUM, 1st


System #3
Methodology: Late mail, radio tab no 1 pick, sp fav, Runners no more than 8.

TAREE Race 2, 8 MILLIONDOLLARBABY, 1st
TAREE Race 3, 9-CHICKASAN*, 2nd
* after bet was made, it moved from SP fav to be 2nd fav.


System #4
Methodology: shortest priced horse and there is a decent gap (at least $3) between its odds and the rest of the field.

TAREE Race 4, 5-Total Recall, 2nd
GEELONG Race 4, 1-EL CAZADOR, 1st (10 lengths impressive, and after speaking to a mate this horse is a friend of a friends, wow.. might keep my eye on this one and get him to keep me posted on this horse).
TAREE Race 5, 2-SO THE CAT SAID, 1st
MT BARKER Race 1, 3 WEEKLY EXPRESS, DNP
TAREE Race 7, 5-PIMPALA GIFT, DNP
GEELONG Race 7, SWIFT GAMBLE, 2nd
IPSWICH Race 7, 10-SIR TELES, 3rd
IPSWICH Race 8, 2-RAINCOAT, 2nd
________________________________________
________________________________________
Systems Scoreboard (Winners, Places (2nd or 3rd), DNP (3rd in small fields else 4th+)
System 1: 5, 1, 0
System 2: 1, 1, 0
System 3: 1, 1, 0
System 4: 2, 4, 2
________________________________________

System 2 & 3 I will combine and tweak into a new system tomorrow to test, with it being as follows:

System #5
Late mail, radio tab no 1 pick, sp fav, Runners no more than 8.

[pengo]

System #5 v2

Late mail is radio tab first pick, showing pre post odds of 2.00-3.50 (final odds expected to be 1.5-3), field is no more than 12 runners, 3 yo+ and either a fillie, mayor or horse.

- Removed sp fav
+ Added odds
+ Increased runners from 8 to 12
+ Age has to be 3 years old or older
+ Has to be a fillie, horse or mare.


Tested it on today's results where a selection would have been made and it won 4 out of 5 times, dnp 1 out of 5. S/R 80%, need a larger sample tho.

Saying you got the lowest odds of $2.00 for a bet of 1 unit for a win, you would have finished with a profit of 3 units (returned 8 units). 60% ROI (I know I know small sample size!).

[King Cugat]

i reckon you should remove any bets on mayor's Pengo, its politically incorrect! & they'll damage your strike rate short term.

[pengo]

:) i meant mares damnit!

[King Cugat]

;)

[lomaca]

;)

is you never sleeps?

[King Cugat]

Pengo, permission to talk to Lommy in your corner, please.

lommy, buddy!
too busy out collecting string.... ;)

Getting the mrs to knit me a scarf. At this rate we'll have enough for your dog too. $hitzyou wasnt it?

[lomaca]

Pengo, permission to talk to Lommy in your corner, please.

lommy, buddy!
too busy out collecting string.... ;)

Getting the mrs to knit me a scarf. At this rate we'll have enough for your dog too. $hitzyou wasnt it?

aussie terrier as it happens, but 'ill rip your arm off mate, (or lick you to death)

[King Cugat]

mmmm ... the yappers. Had a neighbour with one of those. It dissappeared under weird circumstances a few days after we moved in. I remember because i was digging a vegie patch when the neighbour introduced himself to me with this query.

[lomaca]

mmmm ... the yappers. Had a neighbour with one of those. It dissappeared under weird circumstances a few days after we moved in. I remember because i was digging a vegie patch when the neighbour introduced himself to me with this query.

I hope you kept the dog!!!
waiting anxiously for a positive replay

[King Cugat]

I hope you kept the dog!!!
waiting anxiously for a positive replay
ABSOLUTLEY POSITIVE!..i saved $9.99 on a bag of blood n bone for my new patch.

[lomaca]

ABSOLUTLEY POSITIVE!..i saved $9.99 on a bag of blood n bone for my new patch.

Just as I thought!
A fav backer, going for $9.99 when you could have got $100.00

[King Cugat]

ah no, the money came for it. 7 other neighbours @ $50ea.
The dog and the pit & the bookies board were the same .... they both rolled in nicely :)

[pengo]

System #5 v2

Late mail is radio tab first pick, showing pre post odds of 2.00-3.50 (final odds expected to be 1.5-3), field is no more than 12 runners, 3 yo+ and either a fillie, mayor or horse.

- Removed sp fav
+ Added odds
+ Increased runners from 8 to 12
+ Age has to be 3 years old or older
+ Has to be a fillie, horse or mare.


Tested it on today's results where a selection would have been made and it won 4 out of 5 times, dnp 1 out of 5. S/R 80%, need a larger sample tho.

Saying you got the lowest odds of $2.00 for a bet of 1 unit for a win, you would have finished with a profit of 3 units (returned 8 units). 60% ROI (I know I know small sample size!).

Another one for tomorrow:

System #6
8 Runners, Radio Tab tip #4, win odds $5-$12.
Notes: Back tested over Sunday, Monday and Today and its showing a profit for both win and place betting. You don't have a lot of opportunities to bet, as over the 3 days only bet a total of 8 times. Also what is good about this one, as based on the results it places more often than not, so at the very least your win bets are is covered, so if it doesn't win but places the bet was not a losing wager. So at it stands with this system the win bet simply magnifies your profits and the place bet seems to afford you some protection when each way betting.

[pengo]

System #6 is no good, just checked the results from Jan 1 - 5 and it only won 1 out of 15 bets and placed 5 out of 15.

[pengo]

System #1

Latemail, no 1 tip for both tipsters (radiotab, track tipper; as listed at tabonline.com.au).



Potential races for today:

BALLARAT VR2, 1:35PM
BORDERTOWN AR 5, 3:30PM
BORDERTOWN AR 6, 4:10PM
BORDERTOWN AR 7, 4:50PM

System #5 v2

Late mail is radio tab first pick, showing pre post odds of 2.00-3.50 (final odds expected to be 1.5-3), field is no more than 12 runners, 3 yo+ and either a fillie, mare or horse.



Potential races for today:

BALLARAT VR 5, 3:20PM
BORDERTOWN AR 5, 3:30PM
BORDERTOWN AR 7, 4:50PM

[lomaca]

System #6 is no good, just checked the results from Jan 1 - 5 and it only won 1 out of 15 bets and placed 5 out of 15.

Why don't you read the conditions again? You missed something important!

[pengo]

What did I miss?

I manually went thru the results for all race meets from Jan 1st to Jan 5th. The only winner paid about $7 so a loss, and the place winners paid $1.5-$2.0 so a loss there as well. The horse that was selected in qualifying races showed a final win odd of 5-12 as per the selection criteria.

[lomaca]

I didn't miss anything. I manually went thru the results for all race meets from Jan 1st to Jan 5th. The only winner paid about $7 so a loss, and the place winners paid $1.5-$2.0 so a loss there as well. Races that were selected showed a final win odd of 5-12 as per the selection criteria.

I meant in my Email last night, read it again! the first one!

[pengo]

OK thanks man...
-----------------------

Coming up to our first selection:

BALLARAT Race 2 5-FRENCHLISH (System #1), 2nd.


Next up: BALLARAT VR 5, (System #2)

[pengo]

I saw that King cugat :), put on ya glasses.

LOL @ Bordertown Race 2, Spirit Of Capri got beat by a GIRL, YOUNGER than him :P

[King Cugat]

King Cugat calls for a hawkeye challenge. He has 2 challenges left.

[King Cugat]

LOL @ Bordertown Race 2, Spirit Of Capri got beat by a GIRL, YOUNGER than him :Pmight have been the mayor?

[pengo]

Ballarat has a long straight or is that Geelong?

[pengo]

BALLARAT VR 5, 7-PENINA, (System #5), 2nd.

[pengo]

BORDERTOWN AR 5, 3-HABIT OF THE STARS (System #1 & #5), 2nd.
* Taking a liberty on systeem #1 for bordertown as there is only the radio tab tip, no track tipster. Will help to see if it matters much.

Geez can't seem to get a winner today! Good if you are just place betting tho.

[pengo]

BORDERTOWN AR 6, 5-BYZANT, (System #1). 1st

Pretty much a crap shoot with this race, looking at the odds that is nothing stands out as a strong chance at winning. Maybe this one will be the one to give us a winner? We can only hope! :) Or is it going to be the first DNP for System #1? We can only hope not! :|

Update: 1st (Photo)
Update#2: 1st

Only just!

[pengo]

BALLARAT VR 5, 7-PENINA, (System #5), 2nd.
Correction this is also a System #1 selection.

[pengo]

BORDERTOWN AR 7, 9-DUST TO DREAMS, (System #1 & #5), 1st

Nice finish for the day!


Systems Scoreboard (Winners, Placed (2nd or 3rd), DNP (3rd in small fields else 4th+)
System 1: 7, 4, 0
System 5: 1, 2, 0

[pengo]

FLEMINGTON Race 1
7-HIPS DON'T LIE
System #1
1st

MORPHETTVILLE AR 1,
2-RIKBAT
System #1
1st

System #1 Selections:
1:50PM ROSEHILL SR2, 1-OVER THE WICKET
2:00PM DOOMBEN BR2, 1-BLACK MINX
3:58PM DOOMBEN BR5, 2-JUST A CLASSIC
5:56PM DOOMBEN BR8, 2-SLIM PICKINGS

[pengo]

System #5 Selections:
1:40PM MORPHETTVILLE R2, 4-HURL,
4:50PM FLEMINGTON R7, 5-BRITOMART,
* As this selection is based on pre-jump odds, these are note final selections.

B SHINN/G WATERHOUSE Jockey/Trainer combo
5:48PM ROSEHILL Race 8, 9-CERTAIN MAGIC

[pengo]

have my doubts with br5, big field!

[pengo]

System #1
Latemail, no 1 tip for both tipsters (radiotab, track tipper; as listed at tabonline.com.au).

FLEMINGTON R1, 7-HIPS DON'T LIE, 1st
MORPHETTVILLE AR 1, 2-RIKBAT, 1st
ROSEHILL SR2, 1-OVER THE WICKET, 1st
DOOMBEN BR2, 1-BLACK MINX, 1st
DOOMBEN BR5, 2-JUST A CLASSIC, 2nd
5:56PM DOOMBEN BR8, 2-SLIM PICKINGS, DNP


System #5 v2
Late mail is radio tab first pick, showing pre post odds of 2.00-3.50 (final odds expected to be 1.5-3), field is no more than 12 runners, 3 yo+ and either a fillie, mare or horse.

MORPHETTVILLE R2, 4-HURL, 2nd
FLEMINGTON R7, 5-BRITOMART, DNP


B SHINN/G WATERHOUSE Jockey/Trainer combo
5:48PM ROSEHILL Race 8, 9-CERTAIN MAGIC, DNP



Systems Scoreboard (Winners, Placed (2nd or 3rd), DNP (3rd in small fields else 4th+)
System 1: 11, 5, 1
System 5: 1, 3, 1

[pengo]

28/1
Sandown Race 2, 3-Yoobabe, 1st 3.20/1.50
Cheltenham Race 1, 1-Husson Lightning, 2nd 1.30
Cheltenham Race 3, 2-Foolish Lad, 1st 4.50/2.10
Cheltenham Race 4, 4-Tosstestaroan, 1st 1.80/1.50
Cheltenham Race 8, 3-Predestined, 1st 2.40/1.60
Doomben Race 2, 4-Eskimo Dan, 1st 1.70/1.30

1/2
BALLARAT VR2 5-FRENCHLISH, 2nd 1.60
BALLARAT VR 5, 7-PENINA, 2nd 1.20
BORDERTOWN AR 5, 3-HABIT OF THE STARS 2nd 1.10
BORDERTOWN AR 6, 5-BYZANT, 1st 5.30/1.80


2/2
FLEMINGTON R1, 7-HIPS DON'T LIE, 1st 1.60/1.10
MORPHETTVILLE AR 1, 2-RIKBAT, 1st 2.30/1.50
ROSEHILL SR2, 1-OVER THE WICKET, 1st 1.50/1.20
DOOMBEN BR2, 1-BLACK MINX, 1st 1.60/1.10
DOOMBEN BR5, 2-JUST A CLASSIC, 2nd 1.80
DOOMBEN BR8, 2-SLIM PICKINGS, DNP 0.00

Won: 10
Placed: 15
DNP: 1
Bets: 16

WIN S/R: 62.5%
PLACE S/R: 93.75%


Win Outlay: 16
Win Return: 25.90
Win P/L: 9.90
Place Outlay: 16
Place Return: 26.60
Place P/L: 10.60
Total Outlay: 32
Total Return: 52.50
Total P/L: 20.50
WIN S/R: 62.5%
PLACE S/R: 93.75%