Melbourne Cup System

[darkydog2002]

Can someone post the rules to this as I have forgotten them.

It relied on leader up races that placed in the 1st 3 .

Many thanks if some one could enlighten me.

Cheers.
Darcy.

[wesmip1]

Darcy,

There are a few of these going around. There is one in the Horse Racing Austrlaia Magazine from last year which was similar in that it concentrated on the Caulfield Cup and Cox plate races. Think it was within 5 lengths in these races then there were some other rules around it like recent win, barrier, age, weight, etc.

I am not home this week but when I go home I will try and find it for you.

Maybe someone else hasa copy and can postthe rules.

Good Luck.

[Try Try Again]

An Old Melbourne Cup System was (from memory)

Qualifiers must be placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the Caulfield Cup or in the MV Cup (If winner of MV cup gets a penalty then ignore this horse and take the 4th placed horse). Further qualifiers from finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd in MacKinnon Stakes or SAAB (is it still called this as it seems to change every other year?).

Ignore any 3yo or aged horses.

This will give you a list of horses to consider. Obviously it will eliminate most overseas horses as they do not start before the MC.

Another piece of information worth considering is ignore any horses listed at >$21 as I believe the last was Tawriffic in 1989 (30/1).

Good luck to all that try to back the winner!

[darkydog2002]

Thank you.

The trb has an interesting article that may interest,

Hope propun is rating it.

Cheers.
darky

[crash]

The trouble with all old MC formulas for picking a winner , none of them had 9 OS horses to deal with!

[xanadu]

crash,
yeah, you're right mate..I believe that system appeared in either Turf Monthly or very early editions of PPM.
At the time it had secured the winner of the Cup in about 8 out of 9 years.
Hope that helps.

haveagoodun.

[Bhagwan]

This plan has picked the winner most years it has been running.

Melb Cup Plan.
40% Plc SR
LS 1-4
Age 4-7
Days LS 3-17

Bet all qualifiers.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's a simple plan:

Of the last 9 years, the Cup has been won by a horse which finished within 1.50 lengths of the winner (or won) last start over a distance of 2000m or greater 8 times.

All bar Efficient qualified.

Taking ALL qualifying runners and backing them over 9 years results in 70 selections for 8 winners and a POT at just TAB prices of 4.57%.

Cutting down the number of days since last start to less than 30, results in still 8 winners from 9 years.
A staggering POT of 24.07% backing all qualified horses.

In 2000 one would have snagged Brew and Yippio
In 2005 one would have snagged Maybe Diva and On A Jeune ($14.60 a place)
In 2006 Pop Rock and Delta Blues AND Maybe Better
2007 was a wipeout with no placings.

It's certainly worth some thought though with some huge Quinellas and Trifectas floating about on the day.

9 years

8 winners 24.07% POT
3 quinellas $66.60 $220.70 & $50.90
1 trifecta $1,040.00

Roll on the Cup :D

[darkydog2002]

Chrome .

Decided to use Mr Mac system from that other site and of course the Propun
Ratings.
Depending on how many horses I end up with I will try to snare the trifecta by 4 X 4 X remaing system selection horses.

Good luck to us all eh and may it pay a motza.

Cheers.
darky.

[Chrome Prince]

Good luck with it Darky, I'll post up the qualifiers well before the race for interest sake.

I am still shaking my head over Efficient's win, it's probably the only time I could never have ever picked the winner in thousand years.

Beaten 6 lengths in the Cox Plate over 2040m
Beaten nearly 9 lengths in the Turnbull over 2000m

Perhaps the only clue was in the Derby the year before over 2500m at Flemington.

But it's a big ask to improve 9 and 6 lengths.

[Chrome Prince]

Efficient and All The Good are out of the Cup.

[crash]

For the form student and from a good site :

History over the last 17 years shows that the Melbourne Cup winner is:

1. Is highly likely to start at less than 20/1 in bookmaker markets

2. Will be coming off a top last start performance, either winning or finishing very close to the winner.

3. Has time ratings [110 or better] in one of their last two starts that demonstrate the ability to run fast overall time.

4. Can be drawn wide.

These simple rules should narrow it down to 3 - 5 good prospects.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Chrome.

I agree pity poor form wasnt it.

I remember Warren Block telling me that GOOD form =

1000 - 1600 = Won or ran with 2 lengths of the winner

1650 - 3200 = Won or ran within 3 Lengths of the winner,.

Sound advice I believe.

By the way Neil gave me some very sound advice that I am going to adhere too and for which I am very much appreciative.

Cheers.
Darky.

[Chrome Prince]

My system which has picked the last 8 winners out of the last 9 Melbourne Cups as follows.

Mad Rush
Nom Du Jeu
Zipping
Barbaricus
Bauer
Moatize
Gallopin
Zarita

So that's a third of the field.

I don't think Zipping can win, but he can certainly run a place.
I'm very confident about the chances of Bauer.

I think the winner will probably come from Bauer, Nom Du Jeu or Mad Rush.
Barbaricus can run into the placings.

I'll be betting for the win on Bauer, Nom Du Jeu and Mad rush and taking them each with the other 7 qualifiers in quinellas.

So the quinella outlay will be 21 units.

Go Bauer :D

[Shnita]

Id be interested to hear how you can rule out zipping...

[crash]

Zipping for the place is a good bet. He's so good at it [1 win in 2yrs].

[Chrome Prince]

Id be interested to hear how you can rule out zipping...

Zipping is just one of those horses who's handy but never actually delivers what's needed to get to the next level.
How many times are punters going to bet this horse short before they realise?
At 36/1 I'd give him a bet, at 18/1 they can have it.

Zipping is a consistent horse though, he's just definitely not a Cup winner.
Horses that go around short in lower grade races too many times and fail to win, don't win Melbourne Cups.

[Shnita]

Yep, good points.

I wouldnt be too quick to draw the line through it though, given the following:

* 4th Last year in the cup
* Great run in the Turnbull
* Great run in the Cox Plate.

I agree though, that some horses just dont know how to win..

[partypooper]

Chrome, I'm amazed that you left out Septimus there?? surely it's 1 or 8 to win from 1,5,8

[crash]

With a time rating of 130, Septimus has got to go in as a top chance. Though I wish it had a local Jock!

Gallopin: No hope of running the distance at a genuine pace. It was running on empty winning a jog and sprint last start.

Moatize: Ditto

Bauer: Beat a bunch of walkers at Geelong

Zipping: Give me a break!

My tips:
1. Nom Du Jeu
2. Septimus
3. Mad Rush
4. Honolulu
5. Barbaricus

[Merriguy]

Crash,
We really don't want to know what your picks are. What are your "handbrake's" picks --- much better to know that, I feel?

[crash]

Just missed a quad. A decent effort with 3 wins and a 2nd yesterday from 2 picks a race and has also been whipping me at picking winners at odds lately. Zoe's 2 tips in the Cup are Honolulu [wants a holiday I think] and sticking with the 'go girl' attitude again with Moatize.

Moatize sounds brain dead to me but she got the 100/1 shot in the Derby with the same 'go girl' logic!

[Bhagwan]

I have done the stats for the Melb cup .
The process I have used has picked the winner 9 years in a row.

Numbers
5 7 8 16 23 for 2 units

12 & 14 for 1 unit only because these hav not raced for 18+ days .

The Fav usually pays around the $6 mark , that's why its OK to bet like this.

[Mancunian]

I have done the stats for the Melb cup .
The process I have used has picked the winner 9 years in a row.

Numbers
5 7 8 16 23 for 2 units

12 & 14 for 1 unit only because these hav not raced for 18+ days .

The Fav usually pays around the $6 mark , that's why its OK to bet like this.Hope you're right Bhagwan - my ratings came out with nearly the same mix but throw in 18 for 16 (which is now scratched anyway)

Cheers.... Mancunian

[crash]

I have done the stats for the Melb cup .
The process I have used has picked the winner 9 years in a row.

Numbers
5 7 8 16 23 for 2 units

12 & 14 for 1 unit only because these hav not raced for 18+ days .

The Fav usually pays around the $6 mark , that's why its OK to bet like this.

Nice try, but you did as well as the rest of us. Maybe next year. Go Bart!

[partypooper]

Chrome, hard luck there, but you gotta hand it to "Bart" I even backed it on Saturday, ....... grrrrr!

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, I lost on Bauer - and really thought he might grab the win.
But that's racing.

Consolations:
Bart gets a well deserved win
The Cup stays here ;)
Septimus folded
Zipping ran just like he always does

So I lost on Bauer, won laying Septimus and Zipping.

Well done to Bart, Dato and Blake.

[partypooper]

Chrome, have you reflected on the Bauer with the field for the quinella? ooooh!

[darkydog2002]

The Cup couldnt have been won by a nicer old gentleman.

I wont leave you out next year Bart.

Well Chrome looks like putting another $20 a week away to outlay on next years cup.

Cheers.
darky.

[Dancing Sun]

would anyone happen to know how,where etc i can get a system tested? sorry to sound like a dumb ass

[Try Try Again]

Just an observation but if any of those overseas (especially the English) horses have won > 3200m then put a Big Black Line through them as they all seem to be too slow!
But beware of their 2400m horse as they seem to be much more suited to the pace of the Melbourne Cup.

Just a thought. Any Comments?