greyhounds???

[Every Topic]

ok, so we have now enlightened the masses in this forum as to the secrets of harness racing - is someone going to volunteer and explain the mysteries of greyhound success for me???

There should be a logical way through the forest but I cant find it...
... all correspondence welcome...

Every Topic

[Equine Investor]

Oooooh this is a complex one.

Stay tuned Every Topic, I'm quite busy this weekend, but I'll post my thoughts Sunday night for you.

[throttle]

GREYHOUNDS.
If its a wet track at wentworth park
back no5 all night.

[rooburger]

well a favourite of mine.
i have had a few trys at getting the right system but so far mixed results.
this website is about the best around for learning and tips etc. try this one too.
.http://vic-greyhounds.com/
join the free vip area they have rated tips emailed to you as well.
and to all who back the doggies mine will be racing in 3 weeks go "just our luck" the next topgun winner i hope.

[Equine Investor]

GREYHOUNDS :

My thoughts.

If possible get a comprehensive formguide which gives inrunning commentary.
Altenately,if you can get videos or record in some way, more the better.

The key to success here is identifying dogs which are fast beginners, but got hampered from a poor draw last start and also ran home strongly.

So you are backing dogs which are fast beginners, usually avoiding trouble, and have form that looks ordinary on paper but copped bad interference.

My five star bets would be dogs which led all the way and won in the best time of the night - unfortunately those dogs are usually odds on, but if you can find the occasional qualifier at decent odds, you won't be disappointed.

Take note of weight changes - very important punting tool as a large weight rise indicates lack of fitness and is your best guide to whether the dog is race fit.

DO NOT take anything below 3/1 on the dogs.
Anything can happen without the monkeys riding them, so if you can get over 3/1 and have decent filters, you should come out ahead.

I would stick to the higher grade races rather than maidens etc. You need at least 10 starts to be able to make an accurate decision, as maiden / grade 1 dogs can rise and fall rapidly formwise.

They are just learning what it's all about at that stage and make poor investments.

Often there is good value in the running doubles, as most punters bet heavily on the very fancied runners and if you can find something at decent odds, I've seen running doubles that weren't that hard to have, pay around $100.00!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-12-09 23:40 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Have dabbled with the dish-lickers on and off in the past. Did write a program
many years back which took into account past performances, consistency, best time course & distance (if existed), box drawer, box drawer preference, normal style of racing, early speed factor, slow early factor and an “anticipated early speed pattern” for the field.

In relation to analysing past performances, built in factors like interference compensation, time versus best of night, time versus track record, box drawer and grade.

Had a bit of fun, but main problem I had was estimating the interference compensation, where I did not have access to race replays. Had generic rules to cover but many times not as accurate as you would like.

Something I still find useful when trying to line up performances on different courses & distances is comparison to the track record. Was not uncommon to compare two dogs performances, different course same distance, where dog “A” had a better time than dog “B”, yet dog “B” ran a time closer the track record, and performed accordingly on race night.

For those interested, track records can be viewed at:

http://www.anzga.org.au/trackrecords.htm


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-12-10 15:00 ]</font>

A method that I have had some degree of success with.....only consider dogs at 6/1 or less.Look up the odds each dog started at last start.If it's price is considerably shorter in this race,it becomes a qualifier.Check it's form.It may well be down in class,have a more favourable box draw,etc.If there is more than one qualifier,back them all in a dutch book scenario.Good luck,angel

[woof43]

Greyhounds where do you start, without getting into Time handicapping you can go two methods, either using Grade Par figures or Track Record Par figures.
If you are to get interested in in vesting in Greyhounds you need to convert times to Metres per Second, so the larger number is better, this makes it easier when calculating probabilities.

[woof43]

Grade Par handicapping, invovles compiling past race results, you generally would need around 20,000 lines of form data, from that data you can find the avg MPS figure for all dogs that have finished second plus .001, in all grades in victoria there is 35 different grade classifications, remember the winner only needs to finish just in front of the second runner..(you should verfiy these figures by doing the same for 3rd and 4th placings, and check the variation.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-04 23:51 ]</font>

[woof43]

Once you have complied your Grade figures, you will make a discovery that the MPS figures for grades at different tracks over different distances will vary, the shorter the distance the higher the MPS figure, by using the Linear regression formula the same way its applied to Horses, you can find the deceleration rate and make adjustments to those Base figures..ie because in your sample of 20,000 lines you will have different numbers dogs competing over 450 or 525 metres you will need to avg the distances for each grade and make the relative adjustment.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-05 00:21 ]</font>

[woof43]

Once that is complete, and you have your table Of Grade Par figures all grades, you can then set out to handicap each race, of course spreadsheets help, select a past performnace line, lookup the Grade Par table then make an adjustment for margin beaten.
Thats about it...the only other adjustments you would need to do is Box position adjsutment for form coming in and for form going out (make adjsutment for todays race ) Now your ready to get serious in creating a set of probabilities.
The biggest mistakes one can make in greyhounds is to use averages for things like "calls" etc, as this is Ordinal data, and should be acted upon as such.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-05 00:03 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-05 00:23 ]</font>

[woof43]

I have attached the grade avg figures for all Grade Classifications in Victoria.
the idea is to check each formline make a note of the avg grade figure then add the margin beaten.
Then do an avg of the last 6 or 5 starts to get each dogs Class rating.this is a very simplistic method but its generally very effective as with Horse racing you need to balance your Class figures with Speed/Time figures
A very big hint!!
Remember Class shows in the most recent runs, Speed shows in all runs..
Grade
3 30.22743088
4 30.18140841
5 30.46811196
5F 30.11264684
5P 30.26039339
5Q 30.64659096
5Q 30.70089864
5QF 30.45807385
5T 30.21262206
  30.08164716
F 30.0572205
G 30.34478656
J 30.39132818
M 30.43801822
MCF 30.22249293
MF 30.38966343
MQ 30.66184484
MQF 30.22413873
MT 30.49659058
MZ 30.4463714
N 30.60936992
P 29.68142857
S 30.09632296
SF 29.99228366
SG1 29.97609495
SG2 30.01822341
SG3 30.17976744
SGL 29.99066397
SP 30.12081568
ST 30.09958627
X 30.2011145
X23 29.88255713
X34 30.08001744
X34P 30.24060693
X45 30.28681718

[Percentum]

Is there somewhere that punters can get the form without paying for it a la the harness racing form which is available for free on the net. I have a few theories which I would like to test. Need to have no. of lifetime runs and place %s.
I think that greyhound racing is one of the few areas in which a profit can be made by place betting. I don't have the evidence to back this up, however.

[woof43]

you can visit the grv.org.au site for all form on dogs racing in victoria it is free.
The best method in finding value for place betting is by using Monte Carlo simulations in excel using each dog or horses Life to date speed form..

[Percentum]

Thanks Woof
Will tell you how I go.

[angrymob]

On 2003-01-16 22:09, woof43 wrote:
you can visit the grv.org.au site for all form on dogs racing in victoria it is free.
The best method in finding value for place betting is by using Monte Carlo simulations in excel using each dog or horses Life to date speed form..

[angrymob]

woof43 could you please tell me how to use the monte carlo in excel would much appreciate it i can be contacted at rjs99@iprimus.com.au

[woof43]

If you search for Simtools & Formlists addins for excel on the net you will find a few free addins that will allow you to do Monte carlo simulations.
Why you use is MCsims for place batting an exotic betting is because the Std deviation plays a big part in determining place getters in racing in all codes.

[woof43]

Having some time on my hands this lazy Sunday, i put together this set of ratings based on the Class times i provided in previous posts, the first column details the combined Life to Date form & Recency Form, the other columns are self explanatory.
Normally the top 3 dogs in the Req. Payoff will provide the winner.If you look at the Recency column an compare to the Req Payoff column if the Recency is shorter in price you can bet this dog will be overbet by the public...Remember this is only based on Class without using Time at All
Class the ability to compete in todays grade.
R3 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $

1 $5.40 $6.56 $4.53
2 $14.25 $12.14 $17.55
9 $475.97 $265.29 $3,396.01
4 $15.02 $34.52 $9.32
5 $7.80 $5.56 $13.87
6 $3.82 $3.35 $4.49
7 $6.05 $6.74 $5.45
8 $8.31 $9.47 $7.33
R4 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $6.75 $11.33 $6.36
2 $8.16 $6.74 $8.42
3 $11.61 $58.10 $10.37
4 $52.31 $15.69 $80.39
5 $6.72 $5.09 $7.06
6 $11.54 $14.91 $11.17
7 $5.08 $4.77 $5.13
8 $5.22 $4.78 $5.29
R5 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $3.06 $3.67 $2.71
2 $35.13 $20.37 $80.73
3 $9.14 $4.43 $53.12
4 $35.66 $20.45 $84.93
5 $7.30 $6.95 $7.59
6 $11.15 $11.78 $10.70
7 $4.69 $7.06 $3.72
8 $14.80 $29.78 $10.63
R6 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $11.65 $17.70 $8.53
2 $7.80 $5.30 $15.73
3 $31.49 $33.41 $29.68
4 $5.44 $11.59 $3.47
5 $3.50 $3.26 $3.80
6 $17.58 $15.53 $20.48
7 $7.81 $6.47 $10.02
8 $10.03 $8.86 $11.69

R7 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $112.72 $71.71 $189.87
2 $2.69 $3.17 $2.42
3 $8.29 $6.95 $9.61
4 $5.33 $5.21 $5.42
5 $4.34 $4.46 $4.25
6 $36.12 $19.40 $93.20
7 $99.41 $95.59 $102.32
8 $23.65 $20.54 $26.49

R8 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $2.60 $3.88 $2.21
2 $5.86 $11.99 $4.59
3 $8.71 $6.94 $10.11
4 $9.29 $6.59 $11.95
5 $9.70 $8.84 $10.24
6 $17.56 $8.62 $40.21
7 $51.78 $21.75 $206.54
8 $23.03 $11.40 $51.57