Ascot Races

[Paddy]

Appreciate any feedback from our Perth based forum members (Sandgroper, Rain Lover, croft etc).

I like two horses at Ascot today, won't be fancy odds but I think both should win.

Race 2, like Avenida Madero no.1 Only problem is she has been beaten favourite at her last 5 starts, which is a bit of a worry!

Race 3, like Irish Pride also no. 1 but a big danger looks to be Stockie's Yarn!

[Sandgroper]

Lucky you caught me Paddy, just heading off.

Very quickly, have rated Avenida Madero on top, but not a lot in front of next 2 - Princess Neillena & Shirvic. Rickitave would be a good chance if allowed to lead without pressure. Nos 2 & 3 not without a chance.

Also have rated Irish Pride on top, main danger Royal Sonata. Nos 4 & 5 next bext. Dashing Scene some chance at value, if allowed to lead without pressure.

Good Luck.



_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-04 15:19 ]</font>

[BettyBoop]

Just cleaned up Sandgroper thanks to you.
Thanks, thanks, thanks :wink: X

Party, party, party!!! :grin: :lol:

WIN/PLACE
6 19.20 3.10
3...............1.80
4...............2.20

QUINELLA (3-6) 94.10
EXACTA (6-3) 278.40
TRIFECTA
(6-3-4) 1,977.10

(6) RICKITAVE (B.MATHIESON)
(3) LULUGUI (P.KING)
(4) PRINCESS NEILLENA (L.CAMILLERI)

[Paddy]

Cheers Perth Placegetter, in the end finished well in front on the two Perth races, thanks to your feedback.

I see BettyBoop also did well, let's hope some other folk (that viewed the thread) also struck oil, although not likely to tell / thank you. As I said recently, they are a bit of a silent / unappreciative bunch lately.

I wonder what has happened to the other WA forum members, not seen any posting from them for a while.

Anyway just to complete the picture:

WIN/PLACE
5 2.80 1.90
1.............1.50
7............N.T.D

QUINELLA 2.80
EXACTA 7.00
TRIFECTA 17.40

( 5) STOCKIE'S YARN
( 1) IRISH PRIDE
( 7) ROYAL SONATA

Stockie's Yarn won by a len at 13/8 fav. from Irish Pride with Royal Sonata a close 3rd. Event a bit of a non event betting wise.

See Dashing Scene finished 4th at 33/1.

I see Rickitave started at 25/1.

That Avenida Madero sure is a costly horse!

Thanks my boyo, I really do appreciate your input, Sandgroper. :wink:

[Cosmo]

Nice one Sandgroper - didn't have a bet on that race, but glad to see some people cleaned up - well done Betty Boop & Paddy - Box 5 tri - Cost ($60 for 1 unit) - Collect nearly two grand - hope you had some on yourself. Great work. Wish I'd got on the net later in the day yesterday to see your post. I think a lot of us keep a close eye on your selections, and appreciate you sharing them. As Paddy said I hope all who benefited show their appreciation.

Cheers,
Cosmo

[Sandgroper]

Good to hear that some of the forum members shared in the spoils. I normally do check the forum first thing on Saturday, had a few things on last Saturday & didn’t get on until late. Almost didn’t clock on at all!

Yes I certainly did have some on myself Cosmo, including some nice over-the-odds running doubles. I see you also did well with your Bernborough Hcp selections Cosmo – well done!

It was a nice win by Rickitave who started well over his true odds. Was not hard to put up a case (even without ratings) for Rickitave in this race - the race itself lacked on pace opposition & Rickitave did beat Avenida Madero (short neck) back in June over 1300m at Belmont and was meeting that horse 1.5kg better on that run!

Avenida Madero, on paper, does look to have been disappointing (as beaten fav) in past five starts prior to Saturday, but in reality this mare has rated equal best or within 0.3len of best at four of those five starts, only performing substantially below her best, over 1400m at her last start prior to Saturday.

In essence the handicapper has had her measure (against the likes of Beautiful Bon Bon & Stockie’s Yarn – not bad cattle!) but the majority of the betting public have not realised it.

Interestingly connections introduced blinkers for this mare a few starts back. This has not brought about any improvement & may in fact be a factor in the below average performances at her last two starts.

In race 3 Irish Pride performed a little below best whilst Stockie’s Yarn improved further on his best rating, and as a result was able to beat Irish Pride by 1 len.

Did expect Dashing Scene to race more forward whilst fresh, but with a tearaway leader (Another Kite) who in the end brought himself undone (racing ungenerously), the jock may have decided to settle Dashing Scene more rearward that perhaps originally planned. Not a bad run to finish 4th, although well beaten.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-06 13:47 ]</font>

[red]

Sandgroper,
some of the Geraldtown/Kalgoolie form didn't work out last weekend. Bit different at Ascot I know but a few were in weakish races and did nothing. Latest Sovereign,Red Ripples,Big Bank,Binnu Boy,Star of Angel(maybe something amiss with him).
How does Geraldtown compare with Mt.Barker form?
I thought Royal Minx put in a shocker.
Good run by Comeback Kid, one for soon.
Thanks.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: red on 2003-01-07 05:22 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Good morning red,

Royal Minx did put in a shocker. I actually rated her a better chance in race 3,
but she was scratched from that race to run in the 7th.

Prior to Saturday she had performed well below her best at her previous two starts & was also withdrawn at the barrier in between those poor runs, when found lame in the near fore. Suspect all is not right physically with that mare.

If we use Tapdog’s recent city failure as an example, it does look like current Geraldton form is not holding up in the city.

Latest Sovereign's better form looks to be over shorter distances than 1800m in any case.

Amazed that Red Ripples was so short and I think he needed the run, and perhaps a couple of more.

In the last 12 months, Big Bank has failed dismally at his only other (two) city starts.

Binnu Boy’s run on Saturday was actually his best of only 3 starts in the city, so in retrospect his run was OK.

Star Of Angel has been racing well below his best up in Geraldton, although still competitive (there you go another sign that Geraldton form is a bit below par). Also need to remember that Star Of Angel failed at his last city preparation. Suggest he did go awfully amiss on Saturday.

Yes, good run by Comeback Kid, although I rated the run 1.25len below best, so there is still room for improvement.

How does Geraldton form compare with Mt.Barker form? Based on recent examples you would have to lean towards Mt Barker form being the stronger, but it really does depend on the class of cattle racing at those venues on any given day.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-07 09:53 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Further update red, STAR OF ANGEL was found to have bowed both fore tendons during the race on Saturday and has been retired.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-09 15:25 ]</font>

[red]

Hi Sandgroper and all, bit of a look at Ascot.

R2 looks skinny, not much speed on maybe Toy Prince and even Jugahtrice to go forward. Main Stage will be short but no bet from me.

R4 Metal as Anything improved big time last start and will probably find the fence again with little speed inside. But if odds allow I'll back both Mixed Lad and Regal Raider in an upset. The latter is a distance query. Tango Man probably wants longer now.

R5 a few queries. Fred Who wants Ebony Magic to accept here (she's also in R6). Island Light the other leader. Modem is more flexible and could race forward today, think he'll be first home, no flash odds though.

R6 good 40k F&M race. Twilight Spy will be deserved favorite but up to 58kg now.
National Silk ran a bottler over course/dist. 2sts ago, Lulugui ran on hard last start. A few other roughies make this a possibly good Trifecta race.

R7 another topweight probably favorite again in Fortune Streaker. With the claim is well in for a repeat win. Probably sit not far behind Coordinate/Royal Omen/Merlos. Poziere may not be well treated at weights against Coordinate but was wide all way last start.
Polish Pleasure to improve.

R8 Speed on with Lone Lover, Cougar Roar,Femme,Zabaset,Adarka Grey all like to be up on pace. Family Dreams looks perfectly placed. Camillieri has options. Real Storm was scratched midweek. Cougar Roar definately the class horse but I think better we see him win one again before backing him. Blinkers on Our Big Marcus.

Top day to all.

[Sandgroper]

Unfortunately, not much value around on Saturday, red.

Race 1 - Laetare defied a weight turnaround to defeat Outfitter for the second time – both runs good.

Race 2 – As you predicted red, not much early speed, leaving Toy Prince to sit just off the pace, taking the lead coming around the turn. Nice win at nice overs (6/1). Both Main Stage & Jugahtrice running on but giving the winner too big a start.

Race 3 – Good early speed set it up for the placegetters. Thought the run of Sarah’s Spirit not bad. Only having 2nd start, used up a bit early to get to the lead from a wide barrier, fought on pretty well.

Race 4 – Metal As Anything ran on well to win easily, Regal Raider did find the 1400m too far - finished at the tail. Was also well under true odds.

Race 5 – Inclusion of Island Light & Ebony Magic (speed on) did enhance the chances of the eventual placegetters. Ebony Magic was well under true odds. Fred Who should have won, but for hanging out briefly during his final run. Went down by a nose.

Race 6 – Metal Maiden continues to improve. Grinding run by Twilight Spy. Very good run by both Miss Torpago & Hide The Halo. Forget National Silk’s run, in trouble early (again), after missing the start!
Lulugui racing well below best at the moment.

Race 7 – Very impressed with Coordinate’s run. Was one of my better bets on the card. Ran on strongly to win easily. Very versatile, lead all the way previous start to win over the same course & distance. Fortune Streak was big unders, and raced accordingly. Jock lost the irons on Polish Pleasure.

Race 8 – As predicted red, Family Dreams was perfectly placed. Won well but no fancy odds. Good to see Zabaset showing some old form. Good run by the 3yo Femme. Cougar Roar still to find better form, racing lengths below best at last two starts, albeit after a break of some 12 months. Blinkers on Big Marcus - looks like it backfired, missing the start didn't help.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-14 10:09 ]</font>

[Paddy]

I see the bubble has burst for Frank The Bank - going down by a neck at 4/7 at Ascot yesterday :eek:

[Sandgroper]

Not a huge surprise Paddy.

Rated Warning Tune as the only real danger to Frank The Bank, and only 0.75len behind that horse.

Warning Tune ran up to his best and Frank The Bank ran a bit below his best – end result, Warning Tune finished in front.

And believe me they didn’t forget to back Warning Tune!


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-16 12:20 ]</font>

[red]

Hi all, a brief look at a few races at Ascot.
R2 is an interesting race with a few racing over the distance for the 1st time. Quasarock will lead. Run down by a good horse last start over shorter trip. Field Commander 1stup, distance looks to suit. Not sure where it'll settle from bar 11. Other 2 chances are DeadEyeDick(has been bit unlucky and well drawn) and Tshombie (still a maiden after 7 runs, not really a good bet but will win at odds one day flashing home).
R3 Did Tikenushi select TwinCityGirl over his last start ride on winner Aunt Katie?
Voltage Reign also firstup a chance and well drawn. But Femme will be deserved short priced favorite. Hasn't won since March but has found a race to get back in the winner's list.
R5 If you had your wish and knew Royal Sonata would settle 1out/1back then it'd first home. Samurai Star to lead, maybe Zoloto on its back. Country Born improved last start. New one for stewards reports "Major Metal baulked at debris" last start.
R6 interesting, Inzaghi flying, now up 2kg to new distance. Lead for sure without pressure. I'll back Money Is Magic to gun him down. Might settle a touch closer. Didn't have a clue how to assess Thunder Hawk. A couple of others with a chance.
R7 D-Day for Poliwhirl. Punters got burnt last start, but I have him at around 3/1 so no certainty. Real Storm is backing up, Comeback Kid has the job ahead from a wide gate but on the up.
R8 This may seem an ordinary race to non-Perth followers but its chock full of interest with lots of chances. Just cross out last start winner Rickitave. Blinkers go on Western Tycoon.
Top day to all.

[El Gordo]

Hi red and all, don’t mind the Perth races myself. Have been following closely for some 18 months, with good success. So here goes :roll: - let’s hope I don’t become another victim of the famous forum curse :wink:

R1: Magic Pass looks to have a slight edge over Air Pocket (the raced brigade) but will be watching for moves for any of the 1st starters as I think not a hard race to win first-up.

R2: If Quasarock is left alone in front, will be very hard to run down. Agree with red that Field Commander can run a big race first-up. Both Bonnie Brae & T’Shombie will be running on at the business end. Risca Flight could surprise at odds with the addition of blinkers.

R3: Agree with red – Femme does look the hardest to beat, with Twin City Girl (goes well fresh) the main danger. Voltage Reign also goes well fresh. Could still be a tricky race with a couple of horses with good country form & another couple with good trial form. Expect Scenic Vision to improve considerably on her first run.

R4: I can see why you didn’t comment on this race red, what a lottery. For what it is worth my top 3 are Charming Story, Honami & King Elvis.

R5: Do expect Royal Sonata to be the hardest to beat. However if either Zoloto or Samurai Star get their own way in front, will be extremely hard to run down. Also like Dashing Scene.

R6: Doesn’t look like much opposition to take on Inzaghi for the lead, so must be the one to beat. Agree red that Money Is Magic good chance to run him down, if the race is run to suit. Also expect big runs from Paradiddle and Thunder Hawk.

R7: Very open. Real Storm looks the best of the on-pace brigade. Poliwhirl a big danger. Value chances could be Rustic Hero, Launder and Near To Tod.

R8: Another hard race. Expect the speed on with the likes of Eastern Standard & Rickitave in the race. Big plunge on Western Tycoon last start went astray. They need to get their money back! Cento goes well fresh, as do Heavy Nova & True And Correct. Beyond Dispute another with a chance but drawn wide. Decision To Go in fine form in the city, C’Mon Bluey in fine form in the country. Let’s hope you are all winning before you get to this race.

[Paddy]

Thanks red & El Gordo, you have certainly given me food for thought.

I have a liking for Thorny Rose in the lottery race (4) and also like Western Tycoon in the last (8).

Good luck to you both my boyos.

[madpunter]

Had 2 good winners on the 18/1/03 thanks for your reply hope to hear more from you.
cheers mate
the madman..

[Paddy]

Courtesy of The West Australian website:

WA sprint star Hardrada is set to clash with the nation's elite three-year-olds in next month's $753,000 Cadbury Guineas (1600m) at Flemington.

Leading Melbourne doubles bookmaker Michael Eskander has shown a healthy respect for Hardrada, placing him at $21 with Victorian stars Bel Esprit, Broadband, Titanic Jack and Lord Volksrad in his pre-post market.

Eskander has Sydney sensation Thorn Park as outright favourite at $2.25.

Trainer Lou Luciani flew Hardrada to Melbourne last week to prepare for the first stage of his challenge - the Flemington classic on February 15.

Luciani spelled Hardrada after his fifth to Blevvo in the Fruit 'N' Veg Stakes (1800m) on December 7.



FORMER Perth jockey Pat Carbery may rekindle his association with WA trainer Neville Parnham in Melbourne.

Carbery was quick off the mark to chalk up his first Victorian winner - on even-money favourite Kelaman over 1300m at Stawell on Saturday.

The Perth Cup and Railway Stakes-winning jockey began riding trackwork at Caulfield last Tuesday after fulfilling a life-long dream to break into the competitive Victorian riding ranks.

Carbery built a close association with Parnham, WA's premier trainer, when he rode in Perth.

Parnham is taking a squad of horses to Melbourne to launch an assault on the rich sprinkling of second-tier feature events on offer over the autumn carnival.

Carbery was the regular rider of two of Parnham's expedition trio - Trimagic and La Trice Classic winner Fortune Streak.

"There are plenty of races over there that cater to these horses," Parnham said. "Trimagic showed by her good form at Ascot and her sixth in the Fruit 'N' Veg last year, that she deserves a chance at racing in Melbourne."

Parnham has short-course specialist Irish Pride already based in Melbourne. The horse is likely to have his first start in the $75,500 Hyderabad Race Club Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on February 8.

Trimagic will race in the $151,000 Vanity Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on February 9, followed by the $201,000 Armanasco Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield on February 22 and $251,000 Kewney Stakes (1600m) at Flemington 14 days later. Success in those races may earn the filly a start in the $505,000 Moonee Valley Oaks (2040m) on March 22.

Fortune Streak would be aimed at lesser events such as the $100,000 Kilmore Cup (1600m).

Parnham is also taking his son, Steven, to Melbourne. The apprentice is in line for a three-month stint with leading Victorian trainer Tony McEvoy.

WA apprentice Mark Zahra is already signed to the McEvoy stable but is likely to be out for the next three weeks because of a broken collar-bone.

[El Gordo]

Some selections for Pinjarra tomorrow Wed 22/1/03:

Race 5 – 1 Ovation, 5 Valouise & 3 Nitronian
Race 6 – 1 Narcissism, 5 Kontiki Sir & 3 Truculent
Race 7 – 4 Sapphire Star, 3 Hot Harmony & 5 Highlighted
Race 8 – 1 Mr. Why Gee Bee, 3 Blue Nonna & 4 Confluence

[Paddy]

Hi El Gordo, I see your top selection in the 5th – Ovation has been scratched and is starting in race 7. Scratched from a class 2 race to start in a class 4 race – very interesting! Also see your top selection in the 6th meets the criteria of angel416’s top-weight system :wink:

[El Gordo]

Looks like Ovation should have stuck to the class 2 race, Paddy.

Anyway let's have a look at Ascot for Saturday, hopefully I can make up for the dismal effort at Pinjarra yesterday.

R1: Air Pocket looks the best of the raced brigade, but like last week won't be surprised if the winner comes from one of the first starters.

R2: Also a number of first starters in this race, so watch for any betting moves. Of the raced brigade like Moon Talk (a lot), from Conspirator & Precious Lady.

R3: Doesn't look to be much pace in this race apart fron duel acceptor - Rickitave, which could be hard to beat, if left alone in front. But Time Is Money is my top fancy, with Lulugui and Hello Angel chances at odds.

R4: Speed to burn in this race, so going for some run-on horses. She's A Rose top pick from Dedicated Miss & Midas Rose.

R5: Looks to be not a lot of speed in this race which could play into the hands of the topweight - Secret Remedy, which also qualifies for angel416's topweight system. Fireband & Kame's Hope big dangers, with a watch also on the 3YO - Twin City Girl.

R6: Going for the topweight in this race - Main Stage - should have too much class for the rest. Dangers - Coordinate, Country Born & National Silk.

R7: Tons of speed in this race, so again going for the run-on horses. Zabaset to win, main danges Family Dreams & Tip The Till. Others a chance at odds include Trillemo & Showdown Seth. An interesting runner is Jarnot. Unbeaten in all seven starts at Broome!


R8: This race should be run at a good clip. Expect Beyond Dispute to be running on well at the end. Dangers Mixed Lad & Tribulations. The topweight, Twin Power qualifies for angel416's topweight system. Another interesting runner is Nothing But Gold, winning two of three starts in WA since arriving from SA.

[Paddy]

Some interesting selections there El Gordo - good luck for Saturday.

Must admit still puzzled at connections decision to run Ovation out of class (class 4) rather than the class 2 race :eek:

Only an additional $400 winners purse for the class 4. Also was only to carry 1.5kg more (over limit) in the class 2. Perhaps they thought Ovation better suited over the 1400m (versus the 1200m)

[Paddy]

I see that Tapdog is havin another go in the city at Ascot tomorrow (race 8 ). Drawn wide, with the services of Stephen Miller again.

Bit surprising as Miller copt a bit of the blame for the gelding's last city failure.

See he was a well beaten odds-on favourite at his latest start at Geraldton. Still they persist. Watching with interest tomorrow.

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2003-01-24 14:51 ]</font>

[red]

Hi all and Paddy you seem a positive chappy, best of luck to you.
Will be a good day at the tennis for the Williams nest, $1.1 million to one sister, $563,000 to the other(after yesterday's doubles' win and another $419,000)
Not a lot of betting today.
R3 I wouldn't bet Rickitave with monopoly money. Should lead. Maybe Lulugui can improve to run a place but I'll stay out of this one.
R4 if my stats are right the last 93 starts at 1600m bar 7 has saluted only once, so good luck to Blessedly. Like most I have Metal Maiden on top but not by much so again light/no betting.
R5 Listed 40k race, Island Light with blinkers off could still lead, or Secret Remedy to kick up and lead. Modem will box seat. Did Whiting select Fireband over Modem? They've really thrown Twin City Girl in the deep end.
R6 Main Stage will be fav. Alana Sansom stuck with Coordinate in preference to Main Stage? Don't like Coordinate, up against it today. National Silk flopped this dist. last prep but was 3yo Guineas and set to improve. Czariffic promised a lot early in career, dist. suits.
R7 interesting race, need Sangroper's help with Jarnot. Hard to put a figure on him. Look out for Western Tycoon. Back 100m, will race back, blinkers off, jockey change, set suicidal pace in front last week. Family Dreams will be fav. and set to enjoy good run again. Cougar Roar meets Family Dreams 4.5kg better for 2.8len defeat and will get a good run on fence but those last 50m......
R8 tough. Tribulations shocking draw but is fast early and may even sit outside lead. Mixed Lad been consistent and could mow these down, Twin Power been racing tougher class and will race forward.
Top day to all.

[red]

A brief review of yesterday’s action at Ascot. Helps to sometimes write out your thoughts for your notes.
I had a losing day saved only by betting fairly light.
R2 The surprise probably the very slow time. Moon Talk just got there to beat a moderate performer. 2 from 2 for her, just a bit of reservation for next time. Conspirator blew in the betting from the start and raced as such.
R3 Time is Money was a maiden for 10 runs now has won 2 in a row in town. A bunched finished.
R4 The idea was to pick the right swooper(s) pre-race. Rickitave and Metal Maiden went quick early. Again, 2.25len covered the first 8 runners.
R5 Senate Lease beat Recall A Storm previous start who didn’t hold up the form in R3(though slow away). Some big flops, have to wait for stewards on Fireband which they backed from 15/4->5/2. You’d love to own Kames Hope. Missed a place only once in 12 starts for about $113,000 prizemoney.
R6 Couldn’t believe the price of Main Stage. Didn’t it do well leading into the race or had it had enough this prep? It was 7s at one point in betting. Paradiddle might be one of those horses, and he’s only won 2 from 31. 2 flops over 1800m now for National Silk, this was a shocker.
R7 Jarnot was backed 9/2->7/2 late and ran well so maybe good Broome form can hold up in town. Western Tycoon ran very well for new riding tactics. This win by Family Dreams even better than previous start. Now won 5 from 9. Cougar Roar just goes too hard in races beyond 1000m and in fact all his 7 wins are at 1000m.
R8 Races like this bring you back to earth. I just cannot find anything at all in the winner’s(which will remain nameless) form that could win this. A maiden win at Pinjarra in ok time 2 sts ago then last start beaten by Nikita Blue in a C1 at Pinjarra who did nothing in town 2 weeks ago. A possible similiarity is both wins off a 20+ day break. The time was good and came from bar14. I had it at 100/1 and unders. A hesitant ride on Tribulations still ran very well. Tapdog(top 4th) would like to ask his trainer ‘keep me at a similar distance pretty please’.
Till next time.

[BettyBoop]

Nice one El Gordo, 6 of the 8 winners at Ascot yesterday. Done well!

[El Gordo]

Thanks a lot BettyBoop. Let's see if lady luck is still with us.

Bunbury today -

R5: Paris Bank, Pagan King, Old Boomer & Karuba Lass.

R6: Metal As Anything, Fred Who, Civil List & Feel The Pulse.

R7: He's True Blue, Bluetello, Bon Royale & Salveson.

R8: Lady Didalot, King Lomond, Little Bill & Symbol Sam.

[Sandgroper]

Pretty good tipping on Saturday El Gordo, all but the two long-shots. Both long-shots were bets at the odds offered.

Had Senate Lease rated 1.5len behind my top rated (Kame's Hope) in the 5th, following his recent return to form at Mount Barker, where he had been twice placed in good company carrying 57kgs, most recent of which beaten a nose.

Had Instantaneous rated 2len behind my top rated (Beyond Dispute) in the 8th. This rating was based on OK runs in the city as a 3YO and good recent provincial form. I think the bad barrier may have been a blessing, as he is often ridden up on the pace. With the wide draw the jockey settled him back in the field and he flooded home. I thought a very impressive run, and if not a one-off performance, could go on with it & win a couple more at good odds.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-26 20:43 ]</font>

[red]

Sandgroper,
Would you know if Terry Rhodes is around the tracks these days or still having time off?
He was a master of sticking to his rated prices(100% market) and refusing to bet any underlay. His results spoke for themselves.
Thanks,
red.

[Paddy]

Thanks red, Sandgroper & El Gordo for your contributions to this thread, hopefully others too find the information / tips posted of some benefit. Tapdog certainly did improve on his last city effort, nice run by Jarnot & agree with you red – looked to be a huge improvement by Instantaneous, the barrier would have put me off for starters. But do agree with Sandgroper, in the wash-up - was a pretty impressive win.

[El Gordo]

Albany race 4:

(4) Sir Donald (EW special) from (2) Dai Lo Ban, (3) Predict & (1) Yelmar Boy.

[El Gordo]

1st & 2nd but the one I wanted was unplaced. Not performing anywhere near what he can do. Most disappointing.

Ah well, let's try race 6.

(10) Satin Special, (2) Super Tom, (7) Irish Whistler & (9) Nicantique.

[El Gordo]

Ascot tomorrow - wed 29th Jan

R1: Pretty open race to start the day. Three runs back from a spell & addition of blinkers, should have Final Prospect ready to win. Dancing Tycoon main danger - goes well fresh, third pick Essential Terms (also addition of blinkers). Also a chance at odds - Tasty Tycoon.

R2: Express That Smile should be ready to produce following two starts from a spell. Navedano goes well fresh. Also include Weeds, good Melbourne form & goes well fresh. Also a chance at odds - Bring It Home Babe.

R3: Extremely open race. Platinum from Bandolero & Paris Raider. Chance at odds - Le Dolphin.


R4: Jag Talk back to a suitable distance, Aunt Katie & Ireland Queen the main dangers. One at odds - I'm Coming Home.


R5: Should be run at a good clip. Dela Ventosa to outstay them, Elvis Rules a danger, and a couple at odds - Final Affair & Tantivy.


R6: Another race that should be run at a good clip. Scenic Cruise should be running on at the business end, main dangers Communique & Bonna Bonita. One at odds - Fandang - goes well fresh.


R7: Doesn't seem to be a lot of speed in this race. Should play into the hands of Polish Pleasure. Main dangers, Launder & Pi Meson. One at odds - Rodeo Man.


R8: Should be speed on. Expect a big run from Pienodze - goes well fresh. Bay Of Mine also goes well fresh. And a couple at odds - End Path & Ace O'Class.

[Paddy]

Not bad goin there El Gordo :wink:

I see a couple of scratchings, some placings & six winners including the longest price of the day. Well done again.

[Paddy]

Probably understating your achievement El Gordo, you landed the six winners with your top two picks. For those who take the quaddie in WA, 3 of the winners were your top selection. Paid a bit under $1,400. The only one you missed was Clan Noble which started fav. :eek:

Once again, well done!

[El Gordo]

Thanks Paddy, glad to see that at least one forum member appreciates my efforts.

[GeneralGym]

I more than appreciate your comments especially who you think will lead, pace will be on, big finishers etc
While I don't follow your tips exact its give one confidence if another is thinking the same way.
I fancy Sir Honour in the 5th at Pinjarra today. He is 3rd up, down in grade and was only beat 3 3/4 last start at Ascot when racing from the back and the leaders coming home in 35.04. Knuckney has kept the ride.
Dangers Admiral Black, Scenic Smile and Young Hector
Comments before the race appreciated

[becareful]

El Gordo - great effort on the 29th.

GeneralGym - My ratings for the Pinjarra R5 have Young Hector on top from Admiral Black with Charge Down, Scenic Smile and Royal Crimson all very close. However I have the race as a "no bet" for a number of reasons. Good luck if you have a try.

[Sandgroper]

You are going great guns El Gordo, keep it up mate.

Had a quick look at Pinjarra yesterday, didn’t really fancy the meeting as a betting medium.

Sir Honour having his first start over the middle distance and as you have stated GeneralGym is only 3rd up after a spell. No idea how he will go, and will no doubt benefit from the run - good luck with him.

Agree that Admiral Black is a good chance. Showed a lot of promise in his earlier career. Has been placed at only two middle distance starts – last start win over 2000m in good time for the class.

Also agree Young Hector a chance. Meets the topweight Charge Down 2kg better for a last start 0.25len defeat over the 2000m.


Royal Crimson ran a close 3rd in the same race and meets both Charge Down & Young Hector better at the weights. Back to a class 1 after failing in a class 3 (2200m) last start. In the class 3 race, raced ungenerously early and raced wide in later stages.


Song Of Alamo finished in front of Royal Crimson in that class 3 race & meets Royal Crimson slightly better at the weights.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-30 16:02 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Current NSW Tab odds:-

1. Charge Down (2) scr scr
2. Sir Honour (4) 8.40 4.30
3. Admiral Black (6) 9.70 2.40
4. Javajeem (7) scr scr
5. Scenic Smile (2) 10.90 6.30
6. Young Hector (7) 3.30 1.30
7. Contradiction (10) 9.30 3.00
8. Flink (1) 18.10 6.70
9. Gold Draco (8) 14.30 4.50
10. Joyce Doesn't Know (5) 17.80 4.10
11. Royal Crimson (3) 6.90 2.50
12. Song Of Alamo (9) 7.60 1.50
13. Night Wizard (10) scr scr

Have a liking for Admiral Black myself, so you can put a pencil through that one - one less to beat :lol:

Hey Perth Placegetter, is the Fat One a friend of yours? :wink:

[Paddy]

1. Charge Down (2) scr scr
2. Sir Honour (4) 9.30 5.50
3. Admiral Black (6) 10.20 2.30
4. Javajeem (7) scr scr
5. Scenic Smile (2) 8.20 3.40
6. Young Hector (7) 2.80 1.20
7. Contradiction (10) 9.60 2.70
8. Flink (1) 23.40 6.60
9. Gold Draco (8) 28.10 6.60
10. Joyce Doesn't Know (5) 26.40 4.60
11. Royal Crimson (3) 6.80 2.10
12. Song Of Alamo (9) 8.00 2.30
13. Night Wizard (10) scr scr


Just under an hour to go, looks like Young Hector might start short.

As you can see I have nothing better to do. :grin:

[GeneralGym]

I have Sir Honour rating 3 1/2 lengths better than Admiral Black and 7 lengths better than Scenic Smile with Young Hector my only other qualifier.
Its been a good day so far and when you're on a roll.....

[Paddy]

1. Charge Down (2) scr scr
2. Sir Honour (4) 3.60 1.04
3. Admiral Black (6) 4.50 1.60
4. Javajeem (7) scr scr
5. Scenic Smile (2) 10.90 3.90
6. Young Hector (7) 4.30 2.10
7. Contradiction (10) 13.60 4.40
8. Flink (1) 59.30 10.50
9. Gold Draco (8) 57.50 16.60
10. Joyce Doesn't Know (5) 22.40 6.20
11. Royal Crimson (3) 8.50 2.90
12. Song Of Alamo (9) 10.90 3.20
13. Night Wizard (10) scr scr

Get on fellas before it's too late, GeneralGym's special is now $3.60 & $1.04 :eek:

and some lunatics are backing Admiral Black :eek: :eek:

[Paddy]

WIN/PLACE
11 7.40 2.10
12...............2.90
2...............1.70

QUINELLA (11-12) 26.10
EXACTA (11-12) 67.60
TRIFECTA
(11-12-2) 252.30
FIRST 4
(11-12-2-3) 1,098.40

(11) ROYAL CRIMSON (C.STAPLES)
(12) SONG OF ALAMO (D.RANDALL)
(2) SIR HONOUR (P.KNUCKEY)

SCR - 1,4,13

[GeneralGym]

Sorry fellas but no beginners luck at tipping there still a place out for the each way betters.

A solid effort first time over 2000m by the horse and will be better for the run so maybe next time.

No result for me Win or bust....... but races are like buses...... there will be another one along in a minute!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Paddy]

No apologies needed GeneralGym, Sir Honour did make up a lot of ground in the straight and as predicted by Sandgroper and confirmed by yourself, will improve on his first middle distance start and another run under his belt.

On the positive side with the help of becareful and the ever reliable Sandgroper (not that he gives out his rated selections anymore :smile:

[GeneralGym]

Thanks Paddy, I'll go again on the 2nd at Ascot.
I have them rated as follows
Metal Maiden
1/2 len Time Is Money
1L Miss Torpago
21/2L Dedicated Miss
31/2L Shes Captivating
The other 2 don't qualify for me to rate.

Definate distance query for Time is money and a possible one for She's Captivating.
Miss Torpago to lead with Metal Maiden handy which leaves Shes Captivating midfield and Dedicated Miss back but it is a small field and She's Captivating could scoot home with Dedicated Miss from close positions.
I'm with Metal Maiden to win again with either Dedicated Miss or She's Captivating 2nd/3rd, and Miss Torpago sticking on.

Comments appreciated prior to the running.

[red]

We’ll be cheering Hardrada in Melbourne and at 3.50pm all eyes on Northerly’s trial, but there are 8 winners at Ascot, here are a few thoughts…..(and good to see P Harvey back)..Rail 12m!

R2 – Slightly different to General Gym's assessments but it's an open race. No standout selection so chances are … Miss Torpago apparently in season when scratched last week. Must beat Metal Maiden at the weights and might settle outside lead, just may need this run. Dedicated Miss been unlucky/in season/wide last couple. Shes Captivating has to be there somewhere and less traffic to get through today. I'll play this race if Time Is Money is shortish, a risk to me.

R3 – Bonnie Brae might take a sit behind the improving Island Temptress. I think Halopak is very well weighted on its best and sure to get a soft run, maybe settle a touch closer. Bonnie Brae can win as well. Bronze City has a 6.5kg pull over Polish Edition for 1.3 len defeat 2 sts ago and raced well 1st run over 1600m last start.

R4 – 2 main chances for me are 3 Warning Tune or 4 Kingston Blaze. (1 Money is Magic is the other hope but needs things his way back in the field. No to My True Choice). Maybe Warning Tune(on the up) to lead Kingston Blaze(big run 2sts ago). I’ll go 3 to beat 4 in a good race.

R5 – be careful, 6 are resuming, 4 are 2nd-up.

R6 – Good clash. With JClaite back on, look to Comeback Kid racing a little further back and suiting it, just needs to slot in somewhere. Last start was very good on pace effort. Poliwhirl gave Comeback Kid windburn last 100m last start but up to 56.5kg now and the Kid is cherry ripe.. Argentina could go forward this time and put in much improved run.

R7 – 30k 3YOF Classic. Owner’s dream is Femme. 14 sts, 124k prizemoney. Today up 2kg & 100m on last start will test her. I’ll go 3 Market Wrap to overhaul her. Landed good plunge last start and improving every run. I’ll risk Moon Talk which could settle outside Femme, the first starters could be up there as well. Also risk Miss Belhus and it’s Jessica Roesler’s first ride in town.

R8 – 2sts ago Super Moss ran 4th in the 2400m Cox Stakes. Do we base his chances on this run? I’m not but I could be wrong. It’s an ugly race to end the day. Tango Man(4th bar.1 in row!)will at least have a soft run to produce his best. Charming Story is race and distance fit. Party Boy with blinkers off is down to lightest weight in ages, rough rough hope.

Top day to all.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: red on 2003-02-01 07:40 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Ah yes, Ascot race 2, the "She's Captivating Handicap" :grin:

[BettyBoop]

Thanks for steering me onto the first four at Pinjara on Thursday Sandgroper, paid a bit over $1K.

I might have a bit EW on the roughie of the field at Ascot race 2 today - (7) Summer Surprise, but what do I know, I'm just a girl :smile:

[GeneralGym]

Many thanks to Red and the team as I backed off Metal Maiden and boxed 4 in a tri including her. Nice result with a $124 tri.
Shows what teamwork can do.
I fancy Market Wrap in the seventh as well Red and might have a look.
After the Flemington bias today I give up there!!! I'll stick to the WA consistancy.

[red]

A bit of a review on yesterday's action but to go along with you General Gym about Perth consistency. Sydney and Melbourne have better racing infra-structure, prizemoney, training centres, gallopers, trainers, jockeys etc but so what? There is no reason to be less confident in Perth racing/stewards control than other states. Prizemoney is on the increase as well.
This track was fast.
R2 - Great front running display from Miss Torpago with a fast 1st split. Trouble again for Dedicated Miss, could be one of those.
R3 – Lost in this. This week’s bolter(Turn to Dream) in hindsight not a huge surprise. Broke its maiden after 17runs, just needs a little speed on its races. Bonnie Brae didn't run the 1600m?
R4 – Deserved win by Kingston Blaze, won’t get in with 53.5kg for a while. My True Choice back to its 33/1 form(didn’t handle the 1600m).
R5 – Manjar Magic 3 wide t/o, gotta respect that.
R6 – Very fast time to Comeback Kid. Blinded beat the others easily, there’s a race in town for him soon.
R7 – Speaking of great front running displays. Femme, 1.10.43, by 3len with 58kg. All credit to her. Moon Talk’s best still ahead.
R8 – Double for JClaite with well timed run on Fore Stay.
Have a top week.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: red on 2003-02-02 05:58 ]</font>

[BettyBoop]

Summer Surprise ran a nice race at 20/1 to finish just 2.5 length behind the winner. Also did beat Metal Maiden home. Since discovered that SS has an excellent 2nd-up record. :wink:

[GeneralGym]

Race 4 at Geraldton looks like a 3 horse race and could be as simple as 1,2,3.

I also fancy Gabor in the first with Yan Chin and Nacagina the dangers.

I have noticed that the Geraldton times when it comes to pace handicapping seem to rate quicker than some other tracks. Anyone else feel the same??

[Paddy]

I see not much joy at Geraldton yesterday, GeneralGym. But there is always next time. Things can only get better :wink:

[GeneralGym]

200/1 for the tipping comp.

Would tip the wrong one in a 2 horse race at the moment.

I see Sir Honour is in the first at Ascot tomorrow.

[Rain Lover]

Paddy,
Try backing up on She's Captivating again at Ascot tomorrow. She should break her run of seconds and be first over the line, against an ordinary field. Hope the odds aren't too skinny.
Good punting

[red]

Racing is more than sport when you see what Murphy’s Blu Boy has done for the Goondiwindi town, with severe drought and all. Today flying the WA flag is Northerly in the Orr, Irish Pride in the JRA, and for the trot fans Baltic Eagle in the Victoria Cup at Moonee Valley.
Rail back to normal, some good races ..ripper day……..

R1 – Paddy,Rain Lover, most others, would’ve noticed the handicapper’s given She’s Captivating 1kg more than last weeks good effort. With the claim and a good apprentice is very well in. Recall a Storm is fitter and was consistent this distance last prep. Early, Sapphire Star could cross My True Choice, Nikita Blue & Recall a Storm up there as well.

R3 – Twin City Girl is 3rd up, had a taste of Open Company last start and ran a big 4th.Looks ready to salute. Can’t get trial info on Old Beau, won 1st up last prep and top 2nd to Kim Storm in Nov. Triconya was a good 1stup win at Bunbury, on the up. I’ll risk Quasarock and hope it’s short enough to back a few.

R5 – Not much confidence here. Either follow the Main Stage form(a few with weight pulls against him) or look elsewhere. Dedicated Miss is up to a new distance, drops to lightest weight in ages and due for some luck. Paradiddle drawn well and should run a much improved race.

R6 – We should see a much sharper Field Commander. Just need to slot in somewhere midfield. Regal Tactic has improved in the last few runs and is a hope, and Risca Flight is well drawn for a rough chance. I’ll risk the toppie.

R7 – Good race. Tribulations can go fast early so it’ll be interesting to see if SMiller hands up to McGruddy on Inzaghi(I think he will). Burrington Coombe not far from them settling. Inzaghi went very hard in front at its first attempt at 1600m last start and held on well for 3rd. I’ll tip Mixed Lad to pounce on these after getting a good run and finding a split near the turn. Tribulations is fitter and a definite chance. He might reel in Inzaghi first. Inzaghi if left completely alone can steal it but I’ll go 4->6.

R8 - Best race the last, unlike last week. Blinkers on Ebony Magic. Kensyl Bay is 9kg over minimum(12 if you include full allowance on bottom weight!). Family Dreams steps into Open company for the 1st time. Will get back and be giving good horses a decent start but this race suits her. If you can forget Fireband’s last start then he’s a chance 3rd up. Distance looks a bit short for Kames Hope but he’s very honest and has a good barrier.

Top day to all.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: red on 2003-02-08 06:23 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Agree Rain Lover, She's Captivating in with a good chance. Also like Glitzy Show in the same race, although I see red hasn't given this horse a mention.

As red has pointed out, we have both Northerly and Irish Pride :smile: running at Caulfield today. Also don't forget Metal Reign also running today and Trimagic at Flemmo tomorrow.

[El Gordo]

Looks to be plenty of value today at Ascot.

R1: Not a lot of early speed, could play into the hands of the bottom two. She's Captivating to finish over the top, agree with Paddy, Glitzy Show a big danger, Belle De Plume could be placed at odds.

R2: Of the raced brigade, Amigo Lass and Elite Business look the main hopes, Buster's Yousha should go well first-up.


R3: Twin City Girl should be too classy, Quasarock hard to be over the shorter distance, Dolly Ziuto well drawn. At odds also include Crystal Clear & Very Auspicious.


R4: Not a lot of speed, could play into the hands of Joy Of The Dance. Plain Jo and Essential Terms next best.


R5: Looks to be speed. Clan Noble well weighted, looks hardest to beat. Topweight Main Stage a big danger. Tapdog for third.


R6: Speed should be on. Agree with red, Field Commander should go close, Conspirator and Itu Dia dangers.


R7: Plenty of speed. Should suit Mixed Lad, Tribulations a danger, can come from behind, Burrington Coombe next best.


R8: Think Fireband will be a touch too classy, Family Dreams an obvious danger, Kame's Hope, Fred Who & Zabaset not far away.

[red]

Hi, bit of a review of yesterday’s action. Excellent finish by Irish Pride for 2nd at Caulfield and payed for the trip earning connections $15k. In the Orr, Fred would be very happy with Northerly’s close 4th.

R1 – Well done Paddy,El Gordo on Glitzy Show, hope you both got some of that 3/1. In fluctuations She’s Captivating was the one you didn’t want to be on (about 13/8 -> 5/2). Poor ride but its part of pre-analysis, where will it settle, what pace etc etc. I got that wrong. In a field with more runners/speed she could break through. My True Choice, take away it’s 33/1 win 2 sts ago and it has shocking form, had every chance in front.

R3 – Make Mine Scotch(11/1) was the cry at the bar for those who backed either of the favorites. Twin City Girl had its chance. Quasarock wasn’t left alone by Triconya, both dropped right out.

R4 – Double to PKnuckey on Essential Terms. Flashing 3rd was Arrian, won 2ndup last prep. so worth a look next race.
(Alan Sansom is having a run of outs).

R5 – Good odds again Main Stage(9/2->7/2), now 3 wins from last 4 and again ran a fast last sectional.

R6 – Every chance Field Commander. Plonk of the day Regal Tactic (5/1->7/2) was a bit wide still ran well as this was on pace dominated. Winner Bandolero had an easy time in front and now won last 2.

R7 – Outstanding win to Inzaghi, they look great in front with sustained speed.The surprise was how short Tribulations was and they took the 6/4 early. Good run Beyond Dispute, probably go up in distance now. Shocker to Mixed Lad, stewards report please.

R8 – Double to JWhiting as the real Fireband produced today swamped them. Hope you got the 4s El Gordo. Family Dreams less than ¾ len away came home well. Forget Ebony Magic went around.

Top week to all.

[the prince]

Hi guys great to see people taking about perth racing i my self live in brissy but love to bet on perth.Any way my question is, does any one listen to track talk of a tuesday or thursday morning and if you do could you maybe pass on bj ryans best track workers from ascot in the post every friday it would be a great help i cannot listen as i am at work so miss it with the time difference anyway if anyone could help that would be great as i maybe able to help out with track work in brissy to give something back.Also did anyone see old beau run yesterday and if you did thoughts would be great good punting to all.

[Sandgroper]

Hi the prince. Old Beau did look well above himself in the mounting yard before the race, and obvious would need the run. A bit slow out from a wide alley, he settled around 2nd / 3rd last on the fence. Coming to the turn he would have been around 9lens off the lead. Move out wide as they straightened up, made a long sustained run about four / five horses out, to be beaten 2.75len. Probably looking for a bit of distance this campaign. Rated his run around 1.75len below his best to-date.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-10 09:52 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Hello Perth Placegetter, nice to see you're still smiling after the past few days of very hot weather over your way. :wink:

Anyhow, a bit of interesting Perth stuff, courtesy The West Australian website:


WA'S racing showcase, the Ascot summer carnival, may get a new-look international-style race to provide a grand slam into its two premier sprints.

The WA Turf Club is considering introducing a 2100m feature to follow the $500,000 Railway Stakes (1600m) and $300,000 Fruit 'N' Veg Stakes (1800m).

The race would provide WA with a Cox Plate-distance feature, a significant development given that 2000m racing is now internationally recognised as the premium trip for champagne horse racing.

The new feature may be slotted in to fill a 24-day gap between the Fruit 'N' Veg Stakes and the $350,000 Perth Cup (3200m).

The proposal comes on the back of a record-breaking summer carnival at which betting and attendance figures underlined a major resurgence for the racing industry.

"Racing over 2000m to 2100m is now the international benchmark for class events," WATC chairman Ted Van Heemst said. "Features are coming back from the former traditional 2400m.

"You have to be constantly reviewing things. The focus is on trying to improve our industry to give us the best result. It is an issue we will address."

The Ascot track cannot support a 2000m event because the start area would fall too close to the home turn. But it would require only minor modifications to install a 2100m start, with a maximum field of 14.

There have been calls from the industry for a 2100m start because the present 400m gap, between 1800m and 2200m starts, is not ideal. The preferred option would be to have a start in the middle.

Van Heemst said he understood criticism that the Ascot carnival was too long because it stretched from late November until January 1.

He also said the committee accepted that interstate competition was unlikely because of Perth's isolation and the superior stakes offered in Melbourne and Sydney.

"We've got to recognise there is the Nullarbor and prize money differential," he said. "What we must do is maximise what we can do here. If we get external competition that is great."

The club hopes to lift the profile of the Channel Nine Stakes (1200m) by raising its stakes to give the carnival a principal short-course sprint.

"With the restructuring of the industry in August, we will be doing our budget a bit earlier this year," Van Heemst said.

"Race programming and a review of prize money will be closely looked at."

Growth on the revamped Ascot carnival, at which the Railway was pushed back into late November and the WATC Derby and WA Oaks shifted to the autumn in 2001, has been good.

Figures show that betting at meetings featuring the Fruit 'N' Veg, Railway and Channel Nine Stakes, as well as the Perth Cup, was up 11.6 per cent on 2000 and 30.9 per cent up on 1999. At three of the four days, on-course tote records were set.