Percentum's Tips Thursday

[Percentum]

Only one qualifying race. Bets are win only:

M. Valley

R7 2 and 11

[xanadu]

Hi Percentum,

Having seen your posts in this and other forums, I thought that I would make myself known. I too, am a percentage punter and believe this is the best way to ensure that I survive in this game considering the variable factors.....bad rides by jockeys, games played by trainers etc, etc....
I'd like to get your feedback on an approach or filter which I use to zero in on potential chances in races where form is uncertain or undisclosed.
On Teletext, for each race the shorteners are displayed and from these I apply a test to see if these favoured runners are true value for the place, as this is basically my method to securing ongoing winning bets. To elaborate, I peruse the shorteners and then refer to the win and place screen to see if any of the place totes for these runners show odds for the place at 1/4 odds or better for fields of 8 or less runners or 1/3 odds or better for the place for fields of 7 or less runners. This way I identify if they are value and warrant further scrutiny....if so, I apply a few other filters before deciding whether to bet. When I do bet, I apply a betting strategy of 1 unit win and five units place to ensure a reasonable return when winners are hard to come by. For example, at last night's meetings at Canterbury and Moonee valley by utilising this method, from four bets I returned a POT of 57.5% which was pretty respectable. Like you, I believe that a regular modest return from wagering is better than a hit and miss approach which results in ruin. That's why I go by the motto " btbi"....."better than bank interest" and since this approach has worked well for me for more than two decades I see no reason to change my approach(NB. before Sky Channel I used the fluctuation boards on course to choose which horses, trotters, dogs qualified).
I would like to get your feedback and general approach to your wagering(eg. mine is 1w 5pl), without giving your "secrets" away and I'd like to hear from other forum contributors as to their general approach(emphasising that I am not seeking the disclosure of their secrets). My motivation for this was that I read in another forum the subject of "value" was mentioned and I would like to get a cross-section of opinions as to what represents "value".

Cheers


Hoping to converse with you and fellow forum contributors.
Cheers.

[Paddy]

Begods! Percentum & xanadu are both from Newcastle. Perhaps a pub meeting is in order.
First meeting of the Pro-Punter Forum – Newcastle chapter, date to be advised. :lol:


_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2003-01-24 13:18 ]</font>

[xanadu]

Begorrah!

Thanks Paddy, may the luck of the Irish be with you.
Yes, Newcastle is a hotbed of keen(read: desperate punters) who are always devising ways to stay in front on the punt - similar to the Irish trying to cope with the Guiness.
Anyway cheers, with St Patrick's day approaching, with a few winners maybe we can afford a few of your favourite brews.

[Percentum]

Yes Paddy, now that I think about it there are quite a few desparates in Newcastle.
Xanadu, you seem to operate from the other end of the spectrum to me. I find it difficult to bet race by race on Saturdays but when I do I usually rate my top 5 backing any of my top 2 if showing $15 + and any of the next 3 if they are showing $25 +.
I bet win only as I've researched many place methods and found their returns to be very meagre if a profit is achieved at all.
I am trying to identify races that tend to throw up long priced horses, thus allowing one to back a number of horses and still achieve a profit should the winner be struck.
Group races with 15+ starters fall into this category. I've made a cut off point of top 9 win only and top 6 into field in quinellas in a number of these. Some outstanding results have included Sapio ($150 +) when it won the Doomben Cup (rated 3rd), Ambala ($169) when it won the Goodwood and Bulta ($100 +) when it won the SA Derby (rated 8th).
The tips I put up on this posting made a long term profit of 18% on turnover over a 7000 race workout (of which 2000 proved to be bettable races). The top horse using this method made 26% on t.o. but the strike rate was not good (18%). Due to time restrictions this is what currently suits me (i.e. put on when scratchings are known and forget about them). The race by race scenario is probably more profitable but I don't seem to have the right temperament for it. After a losing day (because it is work rather than play) I tend to think,'Bloody hell! I've spent all of my precious Saturday watching a screen!' etc, etc
Wellington Cup tomorrow will probably be a top 9 and 6/field quinella race. Although it's not in my workout it fits the general characteristics of the type of race researched. Will be fickle and have a go at it I think.
Anyway, good to hear from you. We Novocastrians have to stick together against the forces of evil out there.
Better keep moving. It's something you have to do when you owe a lot of money around the town.

[xanadu]

Percentum,

Good to hear from you. I am currently working on a percentage based plan which backs 6 horses in each qualifying race no matter what the venue. The logic here is that 92% of all races are won by the first six horses in the SP market. Utilising my method and having on-line accounts in all mainland TAB's I am able to squeeze a profit of up to 15% per qualifier race. Of course, sometimes prices contract at the last minute to give less than the anticipated dividend, however, by utilising the services of all mainland TAB's I am usually able to off-set these last-minute set-backs. NB. I usually invest five minutes prior to race start and keep all windows open for easy access, this usually being sufficient time to invest without last minute dramas. It's a bit like playing the futures market and I recognise that it's not for everyone. However, since my other hobby is playing the markets, I see this approach as being compatible with a relatively safe/steady approach to extraxcting a respectable dividend from horse-racing.

[xanadu]

Percentum,

I hope your last comment about owing money wasn't as a result of your punting. Anyway, good luck!