7/8/2011

[darkydog2002]

Cairns Cup
Race 8

1 - 2 - 3 -5 - 9 - 12 (Minimum $7

Care to have a crack Shaun.

Cheers
darky

[Shaun]

2 Magnum Forty Four 38
5 Old Mates Act 30
9 Preacher Man 24
8 Juveniles 22
3 Cash Attack 20

[Brosco]

Hope you don't mind me chiming :)

My ratings system came up with very similar:

9 Preacher Man 37
2 Magnum Forty Four 34
3 Cash Attack 33
5 Old Mates Act 31
7 Matiya's Pride 30
8 Juveniles 29

Good luck to all

[Shaun]

Brosco, do you do any type of pricing for your ratings?

[Brosco]

Brosco, do you do any type of pricing for your ratings?


I have tried but they haven't really come out very well.

I tried just adding up all the ratings numbers and then converting each individual rating to a percentage of the total to derive the price (working on 100%). Even my 'standouts' were expecting a dividend of $4 or so - so it wasn't very realistic.

It is something that I want to pursue, so if you have some ideas I would be happy to hear them.

[Shaun]

I had the same issues but looking at your ratings they are similar values to mine so this might help you, a member of this forum, Thorns suggested this site http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm if you can understand the concept i think it will work for you, i am finding the pricing is very good as long as your ratings are sound.

[Shaun]

Hey Darky, i hope my other races are rated as well as these 3 from Seymour i ran a test on but no cash down.


Race 1 Rated Price
11 Xaar Best 2.20
1 Cierpinski 6.23
10 Viminx 6.23
2 Dashing Benbara 8.64
3 Faldo 9.30

Race 2 Rated Price
4 Godspeed 2.87
2 Decircles 3.05
12 Primed For Action 7.31
3 Devilgate Drive 9.55
6 Nine Stories 12.19

Race 3 Rated Price
14 Rock Musician 2.26
10 Hurriyet 4.96
13 Sixteen Pelicans 4.96
12 Jolie Danzer 7.55
4 Grassini 47.66

Check out the results.

[darkydog2002]

The way I work is if their are 6 Chances I want a minimum $7.
Works well for me.
Good luck to all of us.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Track condition change Shaun - from dead to slow.
I,ll stick with what I,ve put down BUT sure wont be betting this meeting.

[darkydog2002]

Will have a crack at Muswellbrook Race 6 (dead)

1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 9 -10 - 12 (minimum $9)

If theres 3 left I,ll go trifecta /4 I,ll go ist 4.

As well as the win of course.

[Shaun]

I have 2 race in Cairns and wet tracks not an issue but here are mine for the other race.


1 Sly Lu
3 Newton's Rings
2 Boomerang
4 Dealers
7 Lucidly

[darkydog2002]

I took 3 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 9 Won $12

[darkydog2002]

I took 2- 3 -4 - 5 - 10 -12 - 9 Won $12

[darkydog2002]

Forget the other post.

[Shaun]

Check out my ratings post on Cairns race 7

I might have to look in to these first 4s

[Brosco]

I had the same issues but looking at your ratings they are similar values to mine so this might help you, a member of this forum, Thorns suggested this site http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm if you can understand the concept i think it will work for you, i am finding the pricing is very good as long as your ratings are sound.

Thanks for that Shaun - on first reading it looks exactly what I have been searching for :)

[darkydog2002]

No luck for me shaun.
I took 1 - 3 - 9 - 12

Cheers
darky

[Brosco]

I took 2- 3 -4 - 5 - 10 -12 - 9 Won $12

well done dd:)

I would have been happier if we had managed to throw the 11 in there somewhere:)

[Shaun]

I had a bit on the winner and a small trifecta that lost

[Shaun]

I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.

[Shaun]

Well last race for me in Kalgoorlie


6 Kalarena
4 Ain't No Saint
1 Oroya Gold
10 Two Strong Hearts
5 Walnut Creek

[darkydog2002]

No luck for me in the Cup.
I took 1 - 3 - 9 -12

Be worth combining our ratings on 1st 4,s shaun.

[Shaun]

I will go to the TAB site later and use the calculator to work out the best option just boxing them would not work out the best idea.

[Brosco]

I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.

I know that feeling.

I like to have an 'interest' in most races even though I know they are bad betting races.

Also I use a small progressive recovery staking plan and part of my plan says that when there is only 6 races remaining, stop at any loss - regardless! But do I???

[darkydog2002]

Kalgoorlie Race 7
1 - 2 - 3 - 7

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Thanks for the kind words Broscoe.

Cheers
darky

[Shaun]

same here i like to have some sort of interest in a race, even a few dollars on my top runners but if you don't win it can add up.

I was thinking about this the other day and was going to allocate 1 bet amount to these selections, say for example i am betting 3% of my current bank per race and i have selected 3 races for the say that would be 9% i would then have 3% to bet on other races i choose to be involved in.

Sounds strange and it could impact on my profits but no worse than it does now.

[moeee]

I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.

You don't need to learn that , it seems you already know it.
You need to apply it.

I also have problems betting for the sake of betting.
Mine is caused by me spending a large amount of time studying the Form for a Race and feel compelled to wager regardless of whether a betting opportunity exists or not.