Testarossa Vs The Forum Jinx!!!

[TESTAROSSA]

Hi Guys ,

I'm back from the spelling paddock and ready for a good return into the forum ranks.

I thought that as i am "fresh" from a break and that if Becareful is brave enough to pit his tips against the forum jinx then i might as well have a go.

I have to tell you i am pretty confident of finally beating this feared enemy so that everyone can enjoy posting their tips without fear.

I will post selections from my newly developed system which in the past 3 weeks of testing has a S/R of 65% and POT of 84% , so c'mon forum jinx i am ready to take you down.

I will start posting selections tommorrow (Wednesday) and every Saturday until the beast is conquered.

[becareful]

Good luck Testarossa - be warned that the forum jinx is an evil beast and seems to bite harder the more confident you are :wink:


_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-04 15:08 ]</font>

[Every Topic]

all one can say is...
... the best of luck to you Testarossa.
I'm sure we all eagerly await the battle :smile:

see ya
Every Topic

[xanadu]

Hi, Testarossa,

Good to see you back!

I also study, and apply, a race form ratings program and then look for value for betting opportunities.
Without giving away any secrets, could you elaborate on which factor you have concentrated on to refine your techniques.
I have previously made it known that "class" plays a big part in my calculations and final decision to bet.
You weren't far off the mark before, so what have you refined to produce a profit-making approach?

[Paddy]

Welcome back TESTAROSSA,

EI also sends his regards :wink:

Good luck with the new project.

[TESTAROSSA]

Thanks everyone.

Well Round 1 kicks off with these selections:

Gawler R6 - 2 Blue Bows.

Gosford R7 - 2 Storm Grass.

Gawler R7 - 1 Smokey Ireland.

Give it ya best shot Jinx.

[TESTAROSSA]

Xanadu ,

Actually i didn't really change that much except for the fact i totally disregarded weight as a factor.

I also altered my class ratings , which actually differ quite significantly in some ways to other "experts" class ratings.

But you are definetely correct about class , thats the most important factor in my ratings.

I also changed the runs i rate for each horse , i used to rate the last 4 runs , but i changed that to the best 4 runs from the last 6 starts within 500m of the race distance , if that makes any sense.

The plan i just created is a set of rules for the top rated horse , if they pass they become a selection. The rules take into account , Consistency , Barriers , Jockeys and Trainers and of course Class.

Hope that helps Xanadu.

[TESTAROSSA]

Results 5/2/03.

Gawler R6 - 2 **Blue Bows - UNP.

Gawler R7 - 1 Smokey Ireland - 1st , $2.30 , $1.30.

Gosford R7 - 2 Strom Grass - 3rd , $2.20.

** Blue Bows should NOT have been a selection , it had only won 2 races and one of my rules calls for a horse to have won at least 3 races , also on closer examination i realised that it wasn't even the top rater in the race due to a miscalculation , but hey thats what you get when you do things manually i guess. (Will still include as a selection).

I will post todays selections once scratchings have come through for the night meetings.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: TESTAROSSA on 2003-02-06 11:02 ]</font>

[TESTAROSSA]

Todays selections:

Ipswich R1 - 1 Mt Gower.

Orange R3 - 3 Reservation.

Cranbourne R5 - 1 Record Score.

Ipswich R7 - 1 Scarlex.

Moonee Valley R4 - 1 Lucky Punch.

Moonee Valley R7 - 2 Go Straight Home.

[becareful]

The forum jinx moves in mysterious ways! :wink:

Good luck with your selections today.

[collingwood]

Well Done Testarossa. So far today - 4 selections - 2 winners & 1 second.

Roll on the night meetings!!

cheers

[Big Louie]

Great effort Testarossa.

Just wonmdering a few things about the last 3 weeks:

1. Is the 65% Strike Rate a Win or Place strike rate?

2. Is the 84% POT WIN only POT or do you back them each-way?

Thanks and good luck, keep up the good work.
Big Louie

[TESTAROSSA]

Thanks Collingwood & Big Louie.

Big Louie ,

1 - 65% SR is the winners SR.

2 - 84% POT is also for the Win , not eachway.

However i also have to add that those figures are only for the past few weeks , i haven't gone further back but i will do so when i have the time.

Cheers.

[TESTAROSSA]

Results for 6/2/03.

Ipswich R1 - 1 Mt Gower - 2nd , $1.30.

Orange R3 - 3 Reservation - 1st , $2.00 , $1.20.

Cranbourne R5 - 1 Record Score - 1st , $3.90 , $1.70.

Ipswich R7 - 1 Scarlex - UNP.

Moonee Valley R4 - 1 Lucky Punch - UNP.

Moonee Valley R7 - 2 Go Straight Home - 1st , $2.40 , $1.20.

Not bad results so far , but could be better.

Results so far:

Selections - 9.
Winners - 4.
SR - 44.4%.
Placed - 6.
SR - 66.6%.
Outlay - $9.00.
Return - $10.60.(NSW TAB)
Profit - $1.60.
POT - 17.7%.

Bring on Saturday.

Cheers.

[TESTAROSSA]

Saturday 8/2/03 Selections.

Caulfield R1 - 1 Paternal.

Randwick R3 - 5 Outward Display.

Morphettville R3 - 1 Oxford Dollar.

Caulfield R6 - 4 Fields Of Omagh.

Eagle Farm R5 - 4 Little Madame.

Caulfield R7 - 1 Prince Rubiton.

Cheers.

[TESTAROSSA]

Well what can i say!!!

6 Selections for a return of a big fat 0.

But i'm not giving up just yet , i know this plan has potential so i will stick with for a while longer yet.

Sunday 9/2/03 Selections:

Flemington R4 - 1 You Little Beaut.

Cheers.

[The Jinx]

So you still think you can beat me do you? Give it your best shot mortal!

:evil: