Don Scott Tab Return

[Dale]

Would anyone know the NSW Tab return for the final Don Scott raters.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

What market position are you referring to.?

I know if one bets all Don Scott top 5, the Loss is only -5%

This means if one is successful deleting just one of those Top 5 , then we must be in Profit over say 150 races.

[Dale]

Interesting, I knew the top 5 performed well but not that well. I can work with that.


Im looking at win bets on the DS highest rater trying to get a good handle on what the tab return would be.

[Dale]

Working on something the last couple of weeks and have recorded these results>

DS-FR (all)
525 selections
115 wins

O 525
R 453.64 (NSW Tab win)
P -71.36 or -13.59%

With race filters applied>
306 selections
67 wins

O 306
R 295.44 (NSW Tab)
P - 10.66 or -3.48%


From what i can tell the strike rate is down about 2% on what is expected during this period.

Eliminating the races I have identified as poorly performing and taking the other bets to Betfair has turned a 13.59% loss into a 4.87% profit.

[UselessBettor]

Dale,

You can check the don scott ratings against my system tester. I am not sure what your filters are but maybe I have them already on the site.

http://testyoursystem.000space.com/

If you want something specific tested I may be able to do it against my database if you post the filters here. My results only go back to August 2011 and are all betfair prices.

The top DS rating has the following results:

There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 5526 selections for the System
There were 5078 races for the System
There were 1288 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.31%
There were $5463.21 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-62.79 or a percentage profit/loss of -1.14%
Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php)

The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1

[Dale]

Hi Useless Bettor,

Those results are behind my current test, no filters and only a small loss, stands to reason simple and sensible filtering and you have something very solid.

Unfortunately the filters im using are not available on your page, you wouldnt have the tab return for those results would you?

Cheers

[UselessBettor]

Hi Useless Bettor,

Those results are behind my current test, no filters and only a small loss, stands to reason simple and sensible filtering and you have something very solid.

Unfortunately the filters im using are not available on your page, you wouldnt have the tab return for those results would you?

Cheers
I have them but not easily linked in. The reason is I only bet with betfair so concentrate on those figures more.

[lomaca]

I have them but not easily linked in. The reason is I only bet with betfair so concentrate on those figures more.UB
I have the races for this January about 1600 races Don Scott FR
No filters!
Win loss $170 & Place loss $152
that is Victab prices, don't know how much difference there would be between the Vic and the NSW Tabs?

[Dale]

I have them but not easily linked in. The reason is I only bet with betfair so concentrate on those figures more.

Thats ok UB, was hoping someone might have had them easily available.

[Dale]

Still looking for these figures guys.

The other stats provided here arent accurate enough for anyone taking this seriously.

[michaelg]

Just out of interest,

1) backing the top rater in the Don Scott market according to U.B's data, and
2) its last start was 5th or worse, then

according to my input the profit is about 10% for the Win, and between a 2 and 3% loss for the Place.

[michaelg]

I also applied the same rule (last start the selection ran fifth or worse) for Unitab's top rater - the result was a 2% profit for Win betting.

However, I presume this is for every 100-pointer on Unitab, so there could be multiple selections in some races.

Interestingly, last start position between 1 and 4 has produced a 9% loss on Unitab.

If both the D.Scott and Unitab results are improved by betting their top selections that finished fifth or worse at last start, then one can easily jump to some contraversial assumptions.

[michaelg]

Out of interest I looked at yesterday's faves or equal faves in the Tele that finished 5th or worse at last start.

There were 14 of them for 5 winners.

The TAB return was $16.10 for a 12% POT, and the Betfair S.P. return was $18.74 (includes the 5% take-out) for a 33% POT.

[UselessBettor]

Followign up on this... Add Barrier >= 5



There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 419 selections for the System
There were 418 races for the System
There were 114 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 27.21%
There were $515.97 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $96.97 or a percentage profit/loss of 23.14%

Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php)

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and rating = 100 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1

Thats a nice return.

[UselessBettor]

Or sacrifice the strike rate a bit for a few more selections:



There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 893 selections for the System
There were 872 races for the System
There were 194 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 21.72%
There were $1118.38 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $225.38 or a percentage profit/loss of 25.24%

Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php)

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1

25% return over 893 selections with only a few races with multiple selections.

[Dale]

Hey Michaelg,

The majority of punters have this inbuilt flaw where we think lowest is always best, be it finishing position to barrier to days since last start.

Try trimming the higher finishing postions one at a time untill you are left with the cream.

[Dale]

Ill go for the trifecta UB.


"There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 349 selections for the System
There were 345 races for the System
There were 93 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 26.65%
There were $436.97 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $87.97 or a percentage profit/loss of 25.21%



Test Another System

The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart >= 90"

[michaelg]

Out of interest I'll list today's Tele faves that have finished fifth or worst at their last start.

I do not know if U.B's data includes those horses resuming from a spell but I have omitted them.

Wyong
7/6

Mudgee
6/3

Sun Coast
4/4
8/4

Kangaroo Island
5/1
8/2

Hamilton
6/2

Bandigo
1/5 (already run - won, paying $2.20 and $1.30)
7/13

[UselessBettor]

I do not know if U.B's data includes those horses resuming from a spell but I have omitted them.
It does not exclude them. It just looks at their last race.

[michaelg]

U.B., I don't know if it makes a difference because I don't generally test resumers, but I don't lay them. Maybe my logic might support betting them.

Out of interest, today's result with the Tele faves wasn't too bad. There were 8 selections after a scratching for 3 winners returning $10.50 ($10.68 with Betfair S.P) for a 31% POT.

[UselessBettor]

U.B., I don't know if it makes a difference because I don't generally test resumers, but I don't lay them. Maybe my logic might support betting them.

Out of interest, today's result with the Tele faves wasn't too bad. There were 8 selections after a scratching for 3 winners returning $10.50 ($10.68 with Betfair S.P) for a 31% POT.
Nice work.

Lets assume most resumers are 43+ days with that the results are :


There were 60272 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 174 selections for the System
There were 171 races for the System
There were 40 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.99%
There were $242.39 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $68.39 or a percentage profit/loss of 39.3%

Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php)

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart >= 43


So not really much of a difference. Alkthough they seem to produce a good profit of 40%.

[Stix]

Nice work.

Lets assume most resumers are 43+ days with that the results are :


There were 60272 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 174 selections for the System
There were 171 races for the System
There were 40 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.99%
There were $242.39 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $68.39 or a percentage profit/loss of 39.3%

Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php)

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart >= 43


So not really much of a difference. Alkthough they seem to produce a good profit of 40%.As Chrome would say, be careful te profit is made up of a many winners and not just two or three.....hard to repeat.

[michaelg]

Continuing this thread, and using only two rules as per U.B's data,

1) Ran fifth or worse at last start.
2) Starting at barrier five or higher.

Top neural selection = 6% POT
Top Unitab selection = 11% POT
Top D. Scott selection = 20% POT.

As Dale has said, "the majority of punters have this inbuilt flaw where we think that lowest is always best". The above results strongly support him.

However, the problem I would assume is that it would take an inconvenient effort and time to check the daily selections for the above three profitable methods.

[michaelg]

As a matter of interest the results as shown here for the Tele fave (placed 5 or worse at last start) over the past two days have been 8 winners from 22 selections for a return of $26.60.

However when I applied the extra rule of having to start at barrier 5 or over (at least four horses inside it) the results are not bad.

There were only 9 selections, but 5 winners for a TAB return of $19.10, and 7 placegetters for a TAB return of $11.90.

I've looked at today's selections. They are:

Grafton
1/12

Wangaratta
1/3
3/11
5/6

[michaelg]

I made an error.

The TAB fave at Wangaratta R1 was no. 4 not 3, however it was scratched, and the selection at W'ratta race 5 was also scratched.

From the two remaining selections, one was unplaced and the other ran second paying $2.00.

[michaelg]

There are two selections today for the Tele method:

Taree 3/6
Townsville 3/2