Interesting...?

[michaelg]

I noticed favoured horses winning their fair share of races today, so out of interest I applied the following rules.

1) All horses with at least 3 career starts to be a qualifying race.
2) A maximum of 4 horses at single figures in the Tele market. Otherwise it's a no-race.
3) Back each at $1 to Win on Betfair S.P.

There were 59 selections, so the outlay was $59. The return was slightly over $71 (includes Betfair's 5% take out). Even the TAB divvies showed a small profit.

There were 18 races that qualified, and the winner was struck in 16 of them.

Tomorrow if I can I will list the selection in case anyone's interested. Hopefully today was just a normal day...

[mattio]

I noticed favoured horses winning their fair share of races today, so out of interest I applied the following rules.

1) All horses with at least 3 career starts to be a qualifying race.
2) A maximum of 4 horses at single figures in the Tele market. Otherwise it's a no-race.
3) Back each at $1 to Win on Betfair S.P.

There were 59 selections, so the outlay was $59. The return was slightly over $71 (includes Betfair's 5% take out). Even the TAB divvies showed a small profit.

There were 18 races that qualified, and the winner was struck in 16 of them.

Tomorrow if I can I will list the selection in case anyone's interested. Hopefully today was just a normal day...Micheal was that backing all runners in the qualifying races that were in single figures in the Tele market?

[Pauls123]

Hi Michael, just as a matter of interest, has the minimum bet on Betfair been reduced from $5 to $1,,...?

Paul

[michaelg]

Mattio, that's correct, all the single prices that are shown in the Tele for the qualifying races.

I use the Tele market because over the years it seems to me to be accceptably accurate. I've also experimented with similar Bet methods but this one is more selective than the others, and the big advantage/difference is that I've never been able to accurately test them with Betfair.

I forgot to mention another rule - if any of the top three Tele faves are scratched then it also becomes a no-race.

Pauls123, I should have mentioned the $1 bet on S.P. was only hypothetical. Unfortunately the minimum is still $5.

[Chrome Prince]

Today was a bad day laying favourites, I clawed back a bit, but a lot of damage was done.
I'd suggest this was one of those days and quite different to the average.

[Merriguy]

Chrome,

As I read it here Mg is backing, not laying (quite a change in direction for him!)

However I would like to ask him if there is any difference in results (percentage-wise I guess) when the tips are AAP, or a named tipster. The former are computer generated, I suppose.

[michaelg]

Chrome, after reading your comments about yesterday's faves I decided to check the results from other days.

I looked at nine random days and the results are:

39 qualifying races.
Outlay of $172 ($1 S.P. bets)
Return of $175.50.

Merriguy, I haven't checked results from any other tipping agencies, neurals etc, but could do so one day.

As the above results are break-even I might reconsider the method.

[Mark]

Today was a bad day laying favourites, I clawed back a bit, but a lot of damage was done.
I'd suggest this was one of those days and quite different to the average.

Yes, it was a tough day at the office, and so was last Saturday.

[Chrome Prince]

This will give you an idea of how variable favourite strike rates can be:

For 2012 so far 32.80%
January 31.30%
February 36.00%
March 30.40%
April 34.30%

Then first week April 31.90%
2nd week 35.30%
3rd week 35.10%

Today 36.80%
Saturday 38.00%
Friday 26.70%
Thursday 33.30%
Wednesday 35.10%
Tuesday 28.60%
Monday 25.00%

And as to Mark's comment, last Saturday stacks up perfectly 37.60%

On paper doesn't look so bad, but for me if it hits the average, I make money.
If it is like Saturday, last Wednesday or last Saturday I lose between 7 and 10 units. Friday, Monday and Tuesday were bottlers winning between 7 and 10 units, but turnover was lower, so finished the week just ahead.

What a rollercoaster, but I can't do it any other way myself.

[partypooper]

using a different angle hit exactly the same roller coaster so there you go! ended up just ahead, after experiencing some very unnerving days!

[Mark]

For what it's worth here are my results.

Day favs won/races I won on.

SAT ..... 12/23 ..... 15
SUN ..... 7/18 ..... 18
MON ..... 1/5 ..... 4
TUE ..... 5/12 ..... 7
WED ..... 3/12 ..... 9
THUR ..... 4/12 ..... 8
FRI ..... 2/6 ..... 6
SAT ..... 14/23 ..... 15
SUN ..... 4/11 ..... 10

52/122 ..... 92 Won every day depsite the high number of favs.

[michaelg]

Mark, very impressive, well done. I've still got a 100% strike rate with my laying outsiders method.

I'm also still looking at my Place system but backing them only when I'm in the mood.

The results for Sat were nine successes from ten selections for a profit of $4.20 with Unitab divvies, and yesterday there were ten successes from twelve selections for a profit of $1.90. Over the two days there was a 86% strike rate for a POT of 18%.

Unfortunately I did not bet them and have not been keeping accurate records, but expect to do so from today.

Only two selections:

Grafton
4/2
7/1

[michaelg]

Both horses placed for a profit of $0.74.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Casino
5/1
8/8

Geelong
1/5
4/9

Wagga
2/6
7/1

[michaelg]

Not a good day- four placegetters from six selections for a loss of $0.70.

Interestingly, since listing the selections here there have been four winners from the eight selections for a profit of $3.30, but only a profit of $0.04 for the Place.

[Shaun]

It is the forum mate has to be, when i post my ratings they go down the drain, last week i backed 5 runners at double figure odds, in future i will still post ideas but never my bets.

[moeee]

It is the forum mate has to be, when i post my ratings they go down the drain, last week i backed 5 runners at double figure odds, in future i will still post ideas but never my bets.

Its not you know.

Its the Good Lord preventing you from getting a Big Head.
It is the First Commandment of The Professional Punters Bible.
Thou shalt not be frivolous with thine Valueable selections lest they lose their Value.

[Lord Greystoke]

Its not you know.

Its the Good Lord preventing you from getting a Big Head.


Don't remember handing out that one out but will take your word for it.

Hows about...

Thou shalt NOT have too many saver bets in one race, else you will pick the winner and still loose the POT


LG

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Flemington
4/2
6/1

Gawler
9/7

Bathurst
3/2
5/1

Gosford
4/1
5/4
7/5

Kalgoorlie
5/2

Launceston
2/1
8/1

Geelong/Moe
6/2

Pinjarra
1/12
6/7
7/13

Swan Hill
1/1

Toowoomba
3/1

[Chrome Prince]

This will give you an idea of how variable favourite strike rates can be:

For 2012 so far 32.80%
January 31.30%
February 36.00%
March 30.40%
April 34.30%

Then first week April 31.90%
2nd week 35.30%
3rd week 35.10%

Today 36.80%
Saturday 38.00%
Friday 26.70%
Thursday 33.30%
Wednesday 35.10%
Tuesday 28.60%
Monday 25.00%

And as to Mark's comment, last Saturday stacks up perfectly 37.60%

On paper doesn't look so bad, but for me if it hits the average, I make money.
If it is like Saturday, last Wednesday or last Saturday I lose between 7 and 10 units. Friday, Monday and Tuesday were bottlers winning between 7 and 10 units, but turnover was lower, so finished the week just ahead.

What a rollercoaster, but I can't do it any other way myself.

Windburn from the rollercoaster and needed a paper bag.

39.50% today!

[Mark]

Yep. I worked 18 races of which 9 favs won.
What helped me was the huge deduction on the late scr Geelong R5.

[michaelg]

The Place system seems to be fading.

However, there have been 11 winners from the 25 selections for a profit of $1.00 or a 4% POT. Looking at S.P. the profit is $5.59 or a 22% POT.

Today's selections are

Mornington
2/9
4/3
6/11

Rocky
5/1
6/6

Wyong
8/1


I'm from the West Indies and as you would probably be aware Australia are playing them in cricket.

The sports commentators on the radio and T.V. media are reporting that the current Test is being played in Dominica. However they pronounce the word as "Do-min-ica. The correct pronunciation is "Dom-in-ica". There is another country there called the Dominican Republic so the mispronunciation is understandable. No big deal, it's like other countries mispronouncing some of our names. I thought I'd mention it just out of unimportant interest.