against the fav

[partypooper]

I've had an idea for a while that I've never tested but wonder if anyone else has. basically as we know only 30% of favs or pre-post favs (what we used to call paper favs)win and backing them all always produces a loss. Now with all sorts of filters etc we continue the quest to turn it into the "elusive" Well my idea is to concentrate on the races that are discarded, i.e. bcoz the stats tell us that the % drops under certain conditions.

Maybe concentrating on the next 2 or three in betting or betting the field agains the fav (as offered by IAS etc.
Rough eg. say we have isolated a particular parameter where the pick under those conditions produces a loss of 60% on T/O, then we could back the field against it and produce a profit overall??? any comments??

[becareful]

Partypooper,

Dont bother with IAS - just lay the selection on Betfair! I have actually been looking at trying to identify the "false" favourites with exactly this intention - ie. laying them on Betfair.

One approach may be to look for someone claiming a "sure thing" on this forum then laying that horse - the jinx should make sure the selection wont win :smile:

I have one approach that seems to be producing about a 50% LOT which should translate to at least a 30% profit from laying on Betfair. Still need a bit more data to build up the confidence level so I am not putting big $$$ on it yet.

[partypooper]

Becareful, thanks for the feedback was beginning to think that my chosen username had scared all off! It was only chosen, because all the methods I've come across fall in a heap when subjected.!!!! But on this one, why against IAS,??? (I've never used them so I don't know)

I heard a few negatives about betfair,(on this site) but I presume all is ok there now?? Anyway you seem to have a few of the same thoughts as me about looking at the "failure rate" , as it were" it's a bit different as you are looking for the sels. that probably won't win and then try and back against them. Just for a starting point
lets say, how do pre-post favs. fare say when quoted @ 4-1 or above, with a lousy draw, that havent raced for more than 21 days, finished more than 3.5 lenghts from the winner last start, and don't have awin in there last 4 starts??? thats just a start.

[becareful]

Partypooper,

I have nothing against IAS - I use their Diviplus option most Saturdays with some of my selections. The problem with their field bet is that they only publicise it on a few races so your betting options are very limited - with Betfair you could potentially do this on every race they cover which means you can pick and choose to get the best races. Also I suspect, although I haven't checked, that you will generally do much better odds-wise laying the horse on Betfair than taking the field option with IAS.

Betfair seems to have got their act together with the site reliability over the last week - doing better than Tabcorp today which still hasn't got any races listed for today at 11:20!

[shy]

There are some great UK Flat statistics available on favourites which cover many criteria. Just wondering how similar our Aussie races would be to their flat season?? Based on UK results it would seem the most reliable favs are Maidens, 2YO, stakes, and small fields (10 or less).

I found this link particularly interesting http://www.flatstats.co.uk/articles/turf/turf_favourites_1.html

Any thoughts?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: shy on 2003-04-04 12:55 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-04-04 11:43, shy wrote:
There are some great UK Flat statistics available on favourites which cover many criteria. Just wondering how similar our Aussie races would be to their flat season?? Based on UK results it would seem the most reliable favs are Maidens, 2YO, stakes, and small fields (10 or less).

I found this link particularly interesting http://www.flatstats.co.uk/articles/turf/turf_favourites_1.html

Any thoughts?


Hello Shy,

Some time ago I did an in depth study of U.K. racing results and formlines.

Suffice to say that most data does not translate well to Australia whatsoever.

Be very careful when adopting U.K. strategies to Australia and vice versa.

I still haven't quite worked out why this is - but I left it alone and dumped it in the too hard basket.
I figured I would concentrate on one country only.
Perhaps the closest racing would be that of Hong Kong.

U.S. racing is pretty much different given their sand and dirt tracks too.

The only common factor was that still only around 30% of favourites win - no matter where you are in the world.

[Mark]

I have been using Betfair to lay ALL horses that I can that are under 2/1, stopping when I'm in front. A nice tax-free income. Haven't laid any runners o/s because I don't have access to the calls so don't know what the results are like. I am looking forward to laying runners for the place on the Grand National tomorrow night, even though they pay 1-2-3-4, last year only 4 runners finished the course out of 40 something.

[Dr Pangloss]

Shy

Those fav stats are telling. It has been demonstrated on here before that it easier to win on shorter priced horses than long priced no-hopers. The following link contains exhaustive stats on almost every angle a race can be looked at.

http://www.adrianmassey.co.uk/

Mark

The above link provides ratings for every race on every race day in the UK. The link below provides live bookmaker betting fluctuations for those races.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/liveshows/

[partypooper]

Well, all I can say for certain is DO NOT TRY AND ALIGN UK STATS WITH RACING IN AUSTRALIA, b4 I lost all my cash on UK racing and now I lose all my cash on Australian racing "THAT" is where the similarality ends!!
Just walk out on an English racecourse and you will know immediately, the underfoot conditions bear no resemblance.

Sorry about the negatives there but I strongly suspect that many of the "successfull" personalities on this this site are related to "Walter"

[Dr Pangloss]

I agree with you Partypooper. Walter Russo, Tina, Christine et al are still alive and well on this site and others.

It is for this reason I no longer post as refrequently as it is hard to determine legitimate posts.

[shy]

Thanks for the advice all.

Mark, we are probably duelling for the same lays. If you are interested in UK results, you can get live inrace text commentary at http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses - site also has betting flucs, form and ratings.

[Mark]

Thanks to the Dr & Shy for the sites, and to Chrome Prince for the site re winners & betting positions. I guess that site rests my case. No matter where the races are or what the conditions I'll be laying the shorties.

[Laurence]

Hi

I asked a similiar question a couple of weeks ago and was recommended Betfair as well.

Taking aside the moral issue (in that no Betfair money comes back to Aus to support the industry) and the legal issues raised recently in the Melbourne Herald Sun, there are more fundamental things for us to consider.

1. Go through Betfair's histroical records and you'll find some pretty thin pools, so if you are looking to lay big dollars, you may not find enough punters to take the other side.

2. In a simple 10 race sequence, let's say we sick to the 30% stat. You lay all favourites at 3.0. You take a dollar a race, but lose on three races. In $10, out $9, Profit $1 or 10% on turnover. However, change the stats only slightly in the punters favour and you lose. That's why bookies lay lots of horses, laying one leaves you vulnerable.

Sometimes you see people say they layed a horse at betfair, and then later backed it at a better price - hence locking in a profit. Fine, but do you see many drifting favourites? You may need to consider laying a number of horses.

3. Right now spread betting is all the rage. Some books and sites will have you believe you can lay tennis games in the UK and lay off yourself on tennis in the US. Spread betting is abritage and we know from the stock market where these inefficiences exist they are quickly snapped up. It is my contention that it is only the small pools currently on offer on some of these exchanges that stop large punters coming in and cleaning up and thus supressig, via sheer volumes of money, what advantage there is. I'm taking about laying and then finding another site to bet with. Plus you have to consider exchange rates and movements when you want to repatriate your cash back in Oz.

4. Someone mentioned IAS favourite/field betting. IAS generally offer this bet on any horse race where they are offering fixed odds. Sometimes you see the prices on their website, sometimes not. I have had fav/field bets and not seen an online quote. I just say this so you know this is a regular bet type you can do and for big dollars.

5. While IAS say thay make a 106/108% market, I find at the track (I live in Melb) you can lay a favourite to a tighter market via a combination of bookies and the tote, i.e back everything except the favourite to take $100 (or multiples of)

6. Any of this spread/laying betting means small returns, which means you need a high strike rate. This is itself presents many money management issues.

7. I got really excited about betting against the favourite a while ago and have tried a number of strategies but ran into the issues above.

Anyway just my two cents worth

Laurence

[becareful]

Laurence,

I have no problem with most of what you say although a couple of minor points:

1. If you are talking about Australian races then I wouldn't pay too much attention to the historical pool sizes - they are growing each week. Obviously you won't be able to lay huge bets on every race but for most of us that is not a big issue :smile:

2. Laying a single horse is no riskier than backing a single horse - you either win or lose. Obviously you need to adjust your bet sizes according to your bank level - so if you typically back horses at $100 a time are are laying a horse at 5/1 then you should probably only put $25 up so if you lose your loss is $100.

4. The main problems with IAS fav/field betting are firstly that you are limited to the favourite (ie. you cannot lay other runners, only the favourite) and secondly if they do not have the odds on the website you have to phone to get them and then, I believe, you must have a bet. Personally I like to know the price without being committed to buying the item!


I can't speak for the others who have commented on this issue but I feel it is a worthwhile option to explore but I certainly wont be limiting myself to favourites only (although to limit exposure I wouldn't lay anything above about 10/1 initially - maybe later if I have built a decent bank)

[Mark]

Laurence

Thank goodness all favs are not paying 3.00. So for what I now do, your figures don't add up. I lay short favs to lose a certain amount. ie I take more on odds on runners than say those at 2/1. You don't need many to get beat to finish in front, and yes they do get beat, as Northerly has shown us, there are no certainties in racing. Did anyone else lay Cuphill the week before??