The Best Always Comes First

[xanadu]

A plan I have been researching lately is when one of the leading trainers has only one starter at a meeting. Recent examples have been:
Clowns(Hawkes) won
15.4.03 Chief Jabula(Mayfield-Smith)1st $3.00w $1.50pl
16.4.03 Lord Of Lords(Mayfield-Smith) 2nd $1.60pl
16.4.03 Lilly O'Reilly(Waterhouse) 3rd $1.50pl
17.4.03 Wyong Race6 No6 Music Land(Hawkes)
I intend this plan for all venues so for Melbourne I recommend keeping a watch on the McEvoy, Freedman, Alderson(and any of the top five trainers). Adelaide:-McEvoy and any of the top five trainers. Similarly, Brisbane(top five trainers). NB monitor the Hawkes stable in all venues.
This plan is geared for mid-week and provincial meetings where the top stables take one of their lesser lights to an out of town track "for a kill." The logic is obvious-the top stables would not waste their time and incur the cost to take one runner to the track without an expectation of a collect.
Perhaps some of our readers can also monitor this approach and alert fellow forum members when a likely candidate is running. eg Wyong R6 No6 Music Land today.

Cheers.

[yubet]

Hi Xanadu,

An interesting approach.

Can you assist with the best way to identify the number of runners a trainer is running,as this info is not available for all races in newspapers.

Cheers,Yubet

[xanadu]

G'day yubet,

If you are an account holder with NSWTAB you can access DFS(Daily Form Service)which provides all such details(this requires a bit of scrutiny). I am not a spreadsheet expert but maybe one of our learned forum readers may be able to suggest a way to download these details.

[xanadu]

By the way my recommended ratio of investing is 1unit win, 5 units place, to capitalise on the high proportion of place-getters this plan should achieve and as a form of insurance if our qualifier just gets beaten.

[xanadu]

Yubet,

I have located an excellent site which takes all the work out of this task:
http://www.aapracingandsports.com.au/racing/trainers.
Hope this helps.

Cheers

[filthy50]

guys,
an even easier way is NSW TAB Site (and you don't even need to have an account) for this info....A to Z lists on the LHS of the home page, lists all runners, jockeys, trainers in alphabetical order.
easy as

[yubet]

Hi Xanadu & Filthy 50

Many thanks,your help is appreciated.

Cheers,Yubet

[xanadu]

Well! No luck with Music Land but I think we are on to a very promising method here. It did rain prior to and during this race and it may have affected Music Land's performance but the horse was never sighted.
We will give this plan a trial period and see how it goes but I encourage any readers to highlight when a qualifier may be running, to assist other forum readers.

Cheers.

Xanadu,interesting concept mate!See one that stands out tomorrow at Randwick.
R5 No.2 Pietiner
Trainer Colin Alderson
Jockey Nash Rawiller

A very astute trainer,and a very good jockey.highly underated(my humble opinion).Is a last start winner at Flemington over 1200mts.,jumped awkardly,11th on settling(in a field of 12)12th at the 400,won by 1 1/2 lengths.Last 600 in 35.85 on a slow track.
Current odds 17.00
Current favourite Secret Land
Gai Waterhouse,who else.I just hope she doesn't scratch it!Will definitely be on this horse,just hope I haven't jinxed it!!
Cheers mate,keep up the good work.

Forgot to mention drops 1kg on last run,so slightly up in class.

[xanadu]

Well spotted angel,

Yes, it fits most of the criteria that we are searching for. We'll watch it's run with interest.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Scrutiny of the fields reveals the following prospects:
SR8 No 5 Dash For Cash(Hore-Lacy)*
MR7 No17 Steel King(Mayfield-Smith)
GC7 No16 Lady Farndale(G A Ryan)
*this is a feature race so it may not surprise that Rick Hore-Lacy has only one runner at this meeting-but what a runner! I have this horse very high in my calculations so we will leave it in and support it. However, in the early stages of this plan we will monitor how things go to see whether any filters may improve our strike-rate. Remember, we are mainly on the look-out for a "smokey" spirited away to a provincial track for "a kill."
Any suggestions to refine our selection method are welcome.

Good Luck.

[xanadu]

Almost missed it!
J Hawkes has only runner at Oakbank tomorrow:
AR1 No 4 Wardroom
we'll see how it goes.

Cheers.

[Mark]

What about NZ trainers who bring over one horse?

[xanadu]

Yes Mark,

I think I will make a decision on a case by case basis as this plan is intended to be flexible. I will develop it on an ongoing basis as trends or unanticipated factors arise. This method therefore transends most mechanical systems which have no scope to change their methodology as different circumstances arise. Also, I hope that with a little help from our forum readers, some very useful adjustments can be made to our selection process.
By the wayour first runner, Wardroom(AR1 No4)ran 2nd paying $1.30pl in NSW.


Cheers.

[xanadu]

Is this a plan or what!!
SR8 No 5 Dash For Cash 2nd $2.80 pl(NSW)
We are showing a pretty healthy profit so far with the recommended investment plan of 1w 5pl. Let's hope that the next qualifier,
Gold Coast Race7 No 16 Lady Farndale(Trainer: G A Ryan) goes well.
NB. In the same race, take notice of No. 8
Billy Jarrah(scr from Bris R7) to run in this race(ridden by it's usual raceday winning jockey C Whiteley).

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, the first day finished very satisfactorily:
3 bets:
Oakbank R1 No 4 Wardroom 2nd $1.30pl
Randwick R8 No 5 Dash for Cash 2nd $2.80pl
Gold CoastR7 No16 Lady Farndale unp
POT = 13.89%
Not a bad start, I'm sure there are unlimlited opportunities in the future, so we will build our bank from accumulated profits.
The important thing to note here is that we did not get a winner yet we were able to achieve a POT of 13.89% POT.
It is something not to be overlooked by serious punters.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

A pretty quiet day today with only two prospects:
MR2 No10 Unnerve(Marzato)*
MR7 No 2 Evil Master(Mick Price)
*only if you agree this trainer is in the top five in Melbourne. We'll see how it goes but I am dubious whether it is a qualifier.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

MR2 No10 Unnerve fell so we were fortunate that we eliminated it from our selections.
However, on a similar theme, that is top jockeys attending the provincials for only one ride-S Baster has only one ride at Mornington today:MR7 No2 Evil Master, so this gives me more confidence in expecting a good run-let's hope so!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Evil Master ran third paying $2.00pl so a profitable day.
Today there is not much action with the only probables being in the same race!
MR8 No1 C'est Le Reve(Alan Bailey)
MR8 No3 Frightening(J B Cummings)
however, as these two trainers are not really in the top five in Melbourne I suppose we should tread warily. I'll leave it up to you individually whether you think they are worthy of having a wager on.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, I was dubious but we'll take it!
MR8 No 1 C'est Le Reve Won $6.60w $2.60pl
MR8 No 3 Frightening unp
we are well in front with this plan and because it taps into some of the variables associated with racing and stable tactics, there is no reason why it shouldn't continue to show a profit. All it requires is vigilance to spot the opportunities that become available-stick with it!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Not much action today, but I note that Nash Rawiller has travelled to Sale for one ride:
MR3 No 7 Philosophe
I think it is a fair bet.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

A couple of possibilities today:
SR2 No 6 Duplication(G A Ryan)
MR8 No 1 Louie's Backyard(D J Hall)
MR8 No14 Jeune's Reign(T McEvoy)
We'll see how they go.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

There is a good chance today but I doubt if we will get a good price-but it qualifies under the terms of this plan:
MR7 No15 Legible
scratched yesterday to run today-we'll see how it goes.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, we got up!.....
MR7 No15 Legible WON $1.90w $1.04pl
almost an absolute certainty. Sorry about the price, but a 90% ROI is pretty good.
Gives us profits for the next bet(s).

Cheers.