Looking for a logical explanation

[CairnsMan]

Hi all,



There is one factor that I haven’t been able to reduce to a formula, and I’m not sure what you’d call it… It’s a mysterious force that I can “Race Pressure”.

What do I mean by Race Pressure? Well when we see a good horse moving up through the grades they suddenly end up in a race that's too hard for them?
Many good horses come undone well out from the finish because the “Race Pressure” was too great for them.

If you watch race replays you can often see a good horse simply become exhausted just before or after the turn and just fold up, exhausted, even though they have been handicapped favorably.

Is it the race pace? The weight? Or some sort of dominating pressure that other runners can apply that brings them undone? I’m trying to find a way to measure this variable in my assessments. Anybody got any clues?

Thanks

CarirnsMan.

[UselessBettor]

I wish I could measure something like that.

You could work out where it happened in previous races using sectional times but predicting it could be very hard.

[moeee]

I think what you have found is called CLASS.
Is hard to describe , and even harder to quantify in a Formula , but you know it , and the lack of it when you see it.
The CAULFIELD CUP Winner demonstrated it.

[Kanga]

Hi all,



you can often see a good horse simply become exhausted just before or after the turn and just fold up, exhausted, even though they have been handicapped favorably.

Is it the race pace? The weight? Or some sort of dominating pressure that other runners can apply that brings them undone? I’m trying to find a way to measure this variable in my assessments. Anybody got any clues?

Thanks

CarirnsMan.
Interesting and difficult. You need to discount injury as the reason for compounding (i.e. Mosheen last Saturday) so you could start by checking the time between race starts i.e. if a runner folds up and starts within x days without a spell you can assume it wasn't injured. The difficult part is knowing if it was injured or just spelled...

[rhino82]

What do I mean by Race Pressure? Well when we see a good horse moving up through the grades they suddenly end up in a race that's too hard for them?
Many good horses come undone well out from the finish because the “Race Pressure” was too great for them.

Anybody got any clues?

Thanks

CarirnsMan.
Weight to be carried, class of race, how to be ridden or how was ridden (post race analysis) - all factors towards how a horse will / did handle the "race pressure" imo

[rhino82]

Weight to be carried, class of race, how to be ridden or how was ridden (post race analysis) - all factors towards how a horse will / did handle the "race pressure" imo
And probably expected / actual (post race analysis again) race tempo

[CairnsMan]

Thanks everyone for your comments:

Rhino82: I agree that “Race Tempo” is a factor. The only way to measure this is to look at sectional times and race times, which is a complex ball game in itself. Also weight carried, Race Class, are also factors and but I can’t see how you can measure riding style and jockey decisions.

Kanga: Good Point; What I’m driving at is to try to find a way to determine if a runner is up to the expected “pressure” of the upcoming race.

Moeee: yes I agree… It’s CLASS! Not the arbitrary race class as set out in the race conditions, but the Class of the animal itself. The question is how do you measure it? In a book I read once there was the statement “the punter who can understand class will make a fortune”. I’m sure that is very true.

UselessBettor: Ok, it’s a toughie. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try. Let’s say that we evaluate a race and the expected “Race Pressure” is X – 10%. Now our runner is evaluated at X + 10%. Would it be hard to pick the likely winner? Just have to define X!

Thanks everyone, any more tips?
Kind Regards
CairnsMan

[Kanga]

Thanks everyone for your comments:

Kanga: Good Point; What I’m driving at is to try to find a way to determine if a runner is up to the expected “pressure” of the upcoming race. Yep, understand that mate. In my opinion when a horse doesn't perform as expected it is normally an undetected (and often temporary) physical problem rather than a mental one. If they were all Mr Ed it would be so much easier :)

[Lord Greystoke]

Has been said here before...

enuff said, Mr Ed!

LG

[CairnsMan]

Hi everyone,
Thanks for your comments and feedback on my thread about Race Pressure.
When I think about it, it is about the Class of the animal, not withstanding that some horse fail because of injury or they have come to the end on their performance cycle.
In trying to measure it, there is no single factor that you can put in a formula that produces a result that can be measured against a race. If you try to measure several factors against each runner then you end up just creating another rating system, and there’s plenty of those around already, none of which are 100% accurate, therefore it’s a judgment thing.
Race Pressure exists, I’m sure of that, but measuring it is really up to one’s own judgment and race assessment.
Thanks everyone for you help on this.
Kind Regards
CairnsMan