False Favourites

[Merriguy]

Quite a lot is spoken about False Favourites on this forum and elsewhere. If you are laying your picks this is most important. Conversely, it is surely also important if you are trying to back a winner to try to discern the False Favourites.

Collectively can we come up with a few thoughts on this subject :???:

What do you see as the indicators of a False Favourite?

[Chrome Prince]

I can offer up two criteria for picking false faves.

1. Horses racing first up from a spell are a risk no matter what it's past first up record is like.

2. Horses rising in class (race prizemoney) are often false favourites unless the rest of the field are also all rising in class.

[partypooper]

someone else mentioned that a horse not racing within 100 metres of the distance last start, can indicate a false fav. but I would add, "OR" be a distance winner

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-04-29 22:41, partypooper wrote:
someone else mentioned that a horse not racing within 100 metres of the distance last start, can indicate a false fav. but I would add, "OR" be a distance winner


Statistically speaking, whether a horse won at the distance or on the track is quite insignificant and does not have any relationship to longterm profit or success.

I know quite a few punters that concentrate on distance and track, but the figures do not reflect major importance.

[Paddy]

Along similar lines to EI (oops) I mean Chrome Prince. Horses that start fav after a good run first up often fail to repeat or improve second up.

[osulldj]

Hi all,

Statistically there are a few indicators that can highlight favourites that win and return less than the average of all favourites. I will run some numbers through my database for the last 4 years and attempt to post some of them over the next few days.

However knowledge of these statistics won't allow you to necessarily profit from them.

Each race and indeed favourite is unique and needs to be treated as such. You need to look and find things that others don't know or tend to discount. Everyone can read the stats.

My own speed and pace figures are my personal tool for finding false favourites.

2YO's and early 3YO's are the horses hyped more than any in the media and betting markets and I find they offer me the best opportunities.

Last Saturday my figures identified Windy Kate at Doomben while having a good chance was no odds on favourite, while Sir Success had a good chance and was at double figure odds in a 6 or 7 horse field....lay Windy Kate on Betfair and back Sir Success at $14...win/win. Prior to that was the Sires Produce where Untouchable was much hyped...my figures showed he only had an outside chance. A few weeks prior to that was the overrated Niello sent out at a prohibitive odds on favourite in the race won by Exceed and Excel...another successful lay.

I Will post some stats on favourites with different form factors over the next couple of days and hopefully they provide some interesting insights.

[osulldj]

Hi all,

Metro favourites for the last 4 years by:

SPELL COUNT

SC SR% POT%
======================
0 29.80% -15.20%
1 30.80% -13.60%
2 31.40% -10.20%
3 30.90% -11.20%
4 28.60% -14.90%
5 28.00% -15.10%
6 27.40% -17.90%
7 29.40% -4.10%
8 28.80% -7.60%
9 26.30% -13.60%

The numbers go on further but the sample sizes are too small.

The same favourites by BARRIER

Barrier SR% POT%
======================
1 32.60% -7.60%
2 31.20% -9.80%
3 29.40% -18.40%
4 29.20% -16.80%
5 31.40% -10.40%
6 32.70% -8.60%
7 27.90% -19.80%
8 28.00% -15.80%
9 27.90% -11.80%
10 28.70% -9.10%
11 28.30% -3.80%
12 24.20% -14.90%
13 23.90% -11.60%
14 25.00% -1.00%
15 11.90% -45.00%
16 24.00% -36.00%

By AGE

Age SR% POT%
======================
2 33.70% -16.20%
3 31.40% -11.90%
4 29.70% -10.50%
5 26.10% -17.10%
6 27.10% -7.20%
7 20.90% -19.90%
8 17.30% -41.70%
9 10.50% -75.30%
10 40.00% 6.00%

By LAST START FIN POS

FP SR% POT%
======================
FS 31.00% -17.30%
1 32.30% -11.50%
2 29.50% -14.20%
3 28.50% -12.80%
4 27.60% -14.30%
5 29.10% -10.10%
6 28.50% -8.40%
7 26.50% -11.40%
8 26.80% -13.60%
9 25.70% -7.00%
10 23.60% -21.60%
11 34.70% 10.20%
12 24.40% -14.80%
13 25.50% -24.50%

The numbers go on but sample sizes are small. FS = First starters.

[xanadu]

Chrome Prince, how ya going buddy,

I agree totally with your view on eliminating false favourites by use of the "class" factor. In fact, I would strongly recommend, as an initial filter, to eliminate any pre-post favourite rising in class and field strength. This should improve your winning percentage markedly. Remember, as a percentage punter, like me, if you can eliminate a false(or media hyped) favourite you can then create a dutch-book and back numerous other starters.
It is definitely "food for thought."

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-05-01 12:05, xanadu wrote:
Chrome Prince, how ya going buddy,

I agree totally with your view on eliminating false favourites by use of the "class" factor. In fact, I would strongly recommend, as an initial filter, to eliminate any pre-post favourite rising in class and field strength. This should improve your winning percentage markedly. Remember, as a percentage punter, like me, if you can eliminate a false(or media hyped) favourite you can then create a dutch-book and back numerous other starters.
It is definitely "food for thought."

Cheers.


Yeah it's relevant when talking about favourites and false favourites, however, if you're looking at longshots - there's plenty of horses with outstanding form which rise in class and field strength to win at big odds.

You just got to identify value.

[radar]

osulldj,

Thanks for the interesting figures - makes you wary of favourites. Can I just ask what is a spell count?

radar

[partypooper]

Thanks Chrome Prince, re: DW, point taken, I was talking here ONLY in the context of attempting to "delete" false favs, (must have) raced within 100m of todays distance last start OR be a distance winner.

[osulldj]

On 2003-05-01 19:55, radar wrote:
osulldj,

Thanks for the interesting figures - makes you wary of favourites. Can I just ask what is a spell count?

radar


Radar,

Spell count represents the number of runs from a spell. A spell count of 1 means the horse has already had one run from a spell i.e. it's 2nd up today.

[radar]

Thanks osulldj,

Not really to do with favourites but on the spell count issue I've noticed (without any real research) that horses 3rd up over the 1500m at Rosehill often fare well. Guess it makes sense for a trainer to set a horse for such a race if it has had the benefit of a couple of shorter fitness runs. Might be worth a consideration for multiples (or if there is a "false favourite" in such a race.

radar

[nevets]

somebody in the forum posted figures that suggested that odds on favs win about 60% of their races.. is there a point or are there figures that suggest a weakness at a certain price.....and id rather be taking 2/1 in an eight horse field than a fifteen horse field(but i imagine barriers play a part in big fields )...just an aside ..... although sound action is argueably the best filly going round at this point in time i think 1.80 is well short for such a race ...many may disagree but thats what were here for ... cheers

[boonchu]

Dan, I know you consider this a pointless exercise but I was wondering if you could post the stats for favourites over different distances and on different surfaces ie. slow, heavy etc? Also, what was the the SR% and POT% of the entire sample? Thanks!