first or second up

[umrum]

anyone with a database who can check quickly and easily or someone who knows the stat please help.

what is the strike rate of first up runners?

what is the strike rate of second up runners?

cheers
umrum

_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-07-30 11:54 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

Result
Tested over 34,000 horses

0-7% (1st uppers)
1-8%
2-9%
3-9%
4-11%
5-10%
6-10%
7-9%
8-11%
9-9%
10-7%

It shows that the horses 4-9th up after a spell, have fitness on their side.
Therefore have a stronger chance of winning.

10th onwards & the stats start falling away again.

If you would like to get a clearer picture , I could run the same stats over the 1st & 2nd paper Fav to give you a different perspective.
Let me know.

[Bhagwan]

That 4-9th supposed to read , it has had 4-9 runs since its spell.

0- means it has NOT had a run since its spell
(1st Upper)
1-means it has had 1 run since its spell etc.

[sportznut]

I actually don't mind backing some horses which are 2nd-up after a first-up win, especially if they have a good strike rate and had good form before the spell.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-07-30 15:59 ]</font>

[partypooper]

interesting stats Bhagwan, but if you look at races of 1200 or less which have at least 1 first upper, you will see that the vast majority are in fact won by a first upper.

[darkydog2002]

barry blakemore used to love the 1st uppers in the 1000-1200 range.
3 ,4 ,5 yo,s
females against males.
previous good 1st up form.
in the ist 4 opening bookies quotes.

[brissy]

Yo All,
I was actually toying with a system a while back that used the form figures x12, x13, or x14 and it seemed to go OK.
I was working on the theory that horses that go well fresh may be a bit flat after a first up win therefore they get beaten but can bounce back at their third run in.
The prices seemed to be quite fair too.
Perhaps someone could run it thru some sort of database and see what it does on a long term basis.
Brissy.

[umrum]

cheers bhagwan and fellas. With the stats the 5, 6, 7th runs in produce most winners but I think the figures are slightly distorted by the fact most of those runs will
be over a trip. I'm looking at perhaps first up runners that have a proven first up record over sprint distances. Also stayers first up over 1400 can produce good prices. I admit you must be wary and i wouldnt bck them for a fortune but I think there is some value to be had. I think the advantage in 1st or 2nd up is you can selectively back them. i.e - a horse like spinning hill is a much better bet first up than she is 5th run in. so i feel you can have confidence with a good fresh up runner where backing a horse with reasonable form 5th run in you still need them to win and show something. It's not quite apples with apples but i think perhaps 1st uppers that are proven can produce some tidy profits. I would stay away from horses with a poor 1st up record and become increasingly wary as they get older. what do you punters think.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-07-31 10:57 ]</font>

[Neil]

On 2003-07-30 15:22, Bhagwan wrote:
Result
Tested over 34,000 horses

0-7% (1st uppers)
1-8%
2-9%
3-9%
4-11%
5-10%
6-10%
7-9%
8-11%
9-9%
10-7%

It shows that the horses 4-9th up after a spell, have fitness on their side.
Therefore have a stronger chance of winning.

10th onwards & the stats start falling away again.

....................

Interesting stats Bhagwan. Agree with you absolutely. Fitness is important. Though I'm not too clear on exactly what these stats are.

Does 34,000 refers to when each of 34,000 horses wins in its campaigns? Apart from first up - every horse is first up? (what about horses that have a break of say around two months?) Are they still counted as being in their current campaigns?

There is room for some distortion in the stats through injury and campaigns being stopped.

Eg there will be less runners having their 10th. run compared to ninth run or fourth run.

May an unsuccessful/poor horse also distort the stats if it is given plenty of runs in its campaign and doesn't win?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-07-31 11:21 ]</font>