Testarossa's System and the Dogs

[Merriguy]

It seems to me that there is great merit in Testarossa's Place System.
http://www.propun.com.au/forums/viewtopic.php?topic=1201&forum=7

Have you, Testarossa, or anyone else tried it with the greyhounds? It is not all that difficult to pick a place; and I think that the average div. would be at least $1.30. I know that the divs. fluctuate wildly (on the Tote); but they do fluctuate in your favour often too.

Thoughts?

[crash]

In the thread you are refering to the Stats. made it look great. However, remember it was based on a 80% strike rate.

The strike rate that the system was based on was forgotten as the thread progressed into the maths and method.
The question remains, was it true? Seems a bit fanciful to expect regular 80% selection success, even though it was only for the place.
Anyone who can select 8 out of 10 doesn't need such a fanciful method to place bets surely?
Why not back each selection e/w as approx. 1/3rd of them should win and that is a great strike rate of winners as cream on the top?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 07:52 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 07:56 ]</font>

[TESTAROSSA]

On 2003-08-21 07:50, crash wrote:
Anyone who can select 8 out of 10 doesn't need such a fanciful method to place bets surely?


Anyone who can't get 8 out of 10 placings better start contemplating whether they are serious about winning!!! remember the average div was $1.30 meaning the majority were favourites if not second favourites.

Considering favourites place around 60% - 70% of the time its not to difficult to have a 80%SR considering you can choose the races to play the favourites in.


Why not back each selection e/w as approx. 1/3rd of them should win and that is a great strike rate of winners as cream on the top?


Once again considering that the selections are favourites or close to the divs would range anywhere from around $1.50 - $3.00 for the win. Taking $3.00 as the winner for every race and a strike rate of 33% you would get $99 back from $100.

Strike rates mean nothing compared to POT.

[crash]

Sorry old Boy,

I was just expressing my ignorance of betting for the place!
Is the system [parley approach] still working?

Cheers.

[TESTAROSSA]

Jesus thats the first time anyone's called me old boy before considering i'm 23. I thought i was old...., it's a bit scary really.

Yeah i wasn't keen about place betting for a while either it didn't seem very exciting, but if it makes money..........

It still going well thanks Crash, been a bit slow at the moment though, but still well ahead.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: testarossa on 2003-08-22 14:34 ]</font>

[Mark]

A mere pup Testa !!


:grin:

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the responses. Glad to hear that you are still making a bob or two from the system Testarossa (actually it dawns on me now that the thread should have been on the 'systems' area --- oh, well, I guess we all read all the three forum areas).

However no one has answered the 'dogs' part of the post. With only eight starters it seems to me that you are already ahead! My experiments in this area have been encouraging anyway. Anyone else tried them for the place?

Another question --- does anyone know the favourites place strike rate for the dogs? About 61% is usually quoted for the horses. What is it for the greyhounds?

[DKEL]

I would be interested in contributors opinions as to the merits of using a 'loss chasing type' staking plan when operating a selection system with a such a high SR (80%).

[crash]

Strike rate for favorites in Horse Racing is about 33%.

As a great Dogs fan [once apon a time ago], I think they are a largely overlooked area of profit potential. Although without the glamour and high profile of the Horses, for
fast and furious action, nothing beats them [definately a young mans game].

I still have the odd night on them at the pub and find a 1x4 e/w on the second favorite keeps me out of trouble and often is quite rewarding. Some research in place betting for profit on the dogs, might yeild somthing very worthwhile bet on Divi+ or Sportsbet [not TAB], if you can take the pace!

[becareful]

I generally avoid the dogs as I haven't spent a lot of time studying them - one big issue is that the TAB pools are ususally quite small which really limits how much you can bet. I did collect some price stats for a while and it is not unusual to see the price on one runner change from say $4.00 just before jump to only pay $2.00 after the race - probably the result of someone putting $500 on their dog when the pool is only a few thousand dollars. Makes finding value kind of tricky when some idiot does that.

Crash - I think IAS only offers Bettadiv on dogs (ie. NSW pricing) which means you are still exposed to this type of issue. Don't know what the bookie markets are like on the dogs?

DKEL - Using a loss chasing staking plan on $1.30 runners can send you broke real fast (as can any loss-chasing plan). You basically have to incresase your bet fourfold after each loss. So if first bet is $50 your progression is $50, $200, $800, $3200, $12800! Even with an 80% strike rate a run of 4 or 5 losses is quite possible.

[crash]

Thanks Becareful,

You have put into Maths. exactly what I was feeling about 80% strike rates and very short place odds ...the possible long enough loosing run would hit it with just enough regularity to make a grown man weep.

However, I think the system was a parley approach over a linking all up in series of threes or somthing.

Everyone can now forget Divi+ for the place. They are shorter than the Tote. Some recent place returns; T/420 Divi+/394.8, T/364 D/338.8, T/644 D/624.4

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-25 07:09 ]</font>

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the the replies everyone. Much appreciated. Just a few observations:

Crash
- I was after an idea of how many favourites placed, not won, at the dogs.
- You don't have to bet on every race. Let them go if you are not ready. Especially with the dogs there will be another along very shortly!!
- becareful is correct in that you never get Diviplus for the place on the dogs (not even the horses come to think of it). It is the NSWTab plus the odd cent or two.
- Testarosa's plan is a parlay approach --- and, of course, this is its strength.

Just a simple example:
A mixture of three horse races and one dog race on Saturday last gave (for a place) dividends of $2.30, $1.10 (yes, Lonrho), $1.50, and $1.50.
Starting with four bets of $10 and parlaying them according to the system, the outcomes were $34, $37.80; $52.80, and $31.50 -- a total of $156.10 (including the original $40.00). For me not a bad return anyway. A lot of fun --- and the worse possible result being a loss of $30.00 (because the fourth $10 would not have come into play if you missed on the first bet).

becareful
- it gets very frustrating when something showing $1.80, $2.00 or similar for the place end up a few seconds later as $1.04 at the start. Tell me about it!! But it does work the other way too. Something showing only $1.10 or money back a few moments before the start can pay $1.50, $1.80, etc at the start.
I guess it is because the punter at the pub or TAB rushes in to double his money when a sure thing is showing $1.90 or the like a minute or so before the start (and so shortens). Whereas if $1.10 showing it is of no interest (and insisting on having a bet) the 'mug' punter puts the money on another dog and so the favourite blows out a bit at the last moment. Trust this tortuous reasoning makes sense to all :???:

[crash]

Merriguy,

Yes Divi+ does now take Place bets. My above examples were actual returns to my account from Place dividens recently. I only realized I was geting short changed when I started noting down in my books the TAB price for comparison. It's a very poor deal.

Cheers.

[Merriguy]

Hi Crash. I think you are wrong about Diviplus and place betting. Below is what I just got off their site a few moments ago about Diviplus:

"(Online & Telephone)

Guarantees you a higher dividend or payout than the highest dividend paid by any of the three Australian Totalisators
Available on all Thoroughbred race meetings in Australia
Win Only bets accepted"

Betadiv gives you a few cents more for the place compared with the largest operator (NSWTab). It is therefore quite possible to get a better pay out (often substantially more) from one of the other tabs. But, of course, as distinct from Diviplus (for the win) you have to monitor all tabs.

:cry:

[crash]

Merriguy,

Sorry but their claims are wrong with regard to the place bet.

My comments stem from ACTUAL bets this week.
You have some bets [open an account first] and note down Tote payout and see if Divi+ pays more. It wont. Not ever.
That's the real proof I'm afraid, not the advertizing blurbs you are accepting and quoting as fact. Nor do Divi+ make any claims anywhere that they pay more than the Tote for "the Place".
That advert. you quoted is left over from when they only accepted Win bets and I am taking the matter up with them [and futher if I have too, as it is now misleading advertizing they have been getting away with for too long. They have had plenty of time to change it].

You obviously don't bet with Divi+ because you stated that Divi+ doesn't except place bets and now you are saying they pay more than the Tote for the Place [?]. If you had been beting with them you would have known they have been accepting place bets for some time [on the horses, trots and dogs].

Sorry, I'm not trying to be harsh here, but anybody reading these posts deseve to know the real situation so as not to fall prey to Advert. fallacies [which are more often than not, just that to suck people in].

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 12:07 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 12:11 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 12:14 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 12:23 ]</font>

[Merriguy]

Somehow, I think, we have our wires crossed here Crash.

The first race today from Benalla (a few minutes ago) --- the winner paid $4.18 for a place (Betadiv); didn't pay anything for the place (Diviplus); and paid respectively for the place:
NSWTab $4.10
STab $3.60
Unitab $4.40

So 8 cents more than NSWTab (on which Betadiv is paid) --- but you would have done better on Unitab (and worse on SuperTab).

Those returns are all laid out for you on the IAS site, and you can confirm them on the various Tab sites.

[crash]

Yes maybe crossed wires.
When I say "Divi+" I obviously mean the AIS site.

Divi+ is the win bet and Beta Divi is their Place bet and the fixed odds is well, their fixed odds.

I have not trawled for examples to find instances of worse than tote examples, but the ones I provided are from my books and are correct.
My last entry since then was Murwillumbah R/2 yesterday, Defend ran third and payed me $171.00 for a $100 place bet [beta divi] and the Tote paid $2.00 which would have returned $200 [please check this one as I am not going to list all my bets and payouts].

Maybe it's the luck of the draw, but I havn't found ONE Place payout in my books that payed more than the Tote. They obviously do happen then but I havn't experienced it yet worse luck.
I agree with your above price as I have just checked it but that race payout alone does not make their payouts "alway" better than Tote [certainly never in my place bets but I obviously have just missed out when they do pay better]. I am going to monitor their payouts just to see what ticks. Somthing is maybe fishy...and their adverts. are still incorrect as far as money in the hand goes.

Cheers.

Merriguy, I was correct. I have just checked the Tote [I live in Vic] and the Place results for the last 4 races at Benalla are:

Tote R1/[winner] 3.60

T/R2 1.60 AIS 1.31

T/R3 2.10 AIS 1.92

T/R4 5.00 AIS 4.38

That to me is under Tote odds [most of the time]. One under price Tote place divi does not invalidate my point that AIS pays unders consistently and in all cases I can find here in my Books. I obviously cant monitor all and every past/future race, but 3 out of 4 here and every bet I have collected on being less from AIS than Tote surely point to my claims being as stated [excluding the odd exception].

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 13:51 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 14:17 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-26 14:21 ]</font>

[Merriguy]

Haven't had the chance to look at the details of your last posting, Crash, until a few minutes ago. We are getting somewhere!!

If you bet for the win you will get the best of the three TABs (plus a few cents) from AIS --- this they call Diviplus (and it is now available every day --- used to be only Sat., I think). Of course those few cents can soon add up as dollars if you are betting $100 plus.

If you are betting the place you only get the NSWTab price (plus a few cents), and this is what they call Betadiv.

As I said in an earlier posting this may be better --- or worse --- than a particular TAB's return. The only way around this is, of course, to monitor all three TABs and have an account with each {except NSW whose price you will be gettting as Betadiv if you have an AIS account}. Phew!!

While on the subject, does anyone know where you can monitor all three easily? I'm sure I have seen the possibility somewhere. I just have all three pages open and switch from one to the other. A bit inconvenient if you have a lot of bets.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Merriguy on 2003-08-27 12:12 ]</font>

[shoto]

Merriguy,
You can see all three totes live from cyberhorse.com.au

You need to register first (free). You find the odds on the form page, where one of the dropdown lists is 'RTO' - real time ods. You get a pop-up showing live tote prices, with the best marked in colour.

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Shoto. Didn't realise that possibilty was there even though I have been a memmber for some time now. Appreciated.

[crash]

Merriguy,

There is a program you can download for trial called the Punters Office that you can recieve three state or one or two state prices, that will place bets in specified tabs or the best of the three in the blink of an eye [if you have the accounts] and even work out Dutch prices etc. [and probably make you a cut lunch too].
I havn't used it but I have heard that it is good value for what it does.

Havn't got the em address but if you type in Punters Office into your search engine you will find it.

Cheers.

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Crash, found it easily enough. Looks most interesting --- but it seems to only deal with STab and NSWTab.

The way things are going that is probably all there will soon!!