Boy sent on a man's job

[xanadu]

With some amusement I note that some system analysts and computer programmers have entered the art of form evaluation and determination.
They continue to espouse the mathematical certainty that a percentage of runners must continue to perform as per the programmer's systems deem that they should, based on past results.
Well guess what fellas and gals, no matter what "science" you apply to your form study, nothing will compensate for the incompetence displayed by some riders, particularly 3kg claiming apprentices.
I note that a regular contributor continues to provide "tips" ridden by 3kg apprentices and continues to fall in a heap-"get real."
For example, refer to Brisbane Race4 today, a particular horse wanted to win but there was no way it was going to-why? He had a complete novice onboard whose every action ensured that this well fancied runner was not going to be in the finish.
Only true form students will relate to what I mean. You must study the video of this race to appreciate the fact that continuing to back horses ridden by 3kg apprentices is a true "wealth hazard."

[brissy]

I am on your side.
They should be banished to the bush (are there any bush races left in QLD?) until they can show that they are at least balanced.

[xanadu]

G'day brissy,

Yes that may be a solution. I am not blaming this category of rider because let's face it, all of today's champion riders started out as 3kg claiming apprentices. What I am alerting other punters to is that continuing to support well fancied runners with a 3kg apprentice aboard is definitely stacking the odds against themselves. There are enough pitfalls in racing without backing such runners-it is better to look elsewhere for a wager. The only exception that I make to this rule is where the horse to be ridden has a history of being a free-flowing front-runner and drawn in a reasonable barrier position. If it fits this criteria then it warrants further consideration.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Remember, as any experienced punter knows, by stopping yourself from backing a loser, it is equivalent to backing a winner at even money. Give that some thought and let yourself grasp that statistic - I can assure you that your punting should improve.

Cheers.

[umrum]

have a look at perth race 6. the o'grady lefroy.

Fair alert.

missed the kick by 4. 3kg claiming apprentice w.pike. rode beautifully. won with 58kg. pike got 21 days for careless riding but he did very well for the punters pushing out of a pocket. Paul Harvey was trying to block him in but he stood for none of it.

Well done william

[xanadu]

Point taken umrum,

Yes, he may have potential to become an accomplished hoop, it seems he will not be intimidated by senior riders. However, a large proportion of his peers will not make the grade.
From this day on keep stats on the number of topweights ridden by 3kg apprentices and over say two months see how you go backing them.

Cheers.

[umrum]

yes your often right xanadu,

some cant even sit on ahorse let alone ride a winner. however some can and if you can identify them i 'm happy to back some.

They all start out as 3kg claimers though the good ones dont hold onto their claim too long.

a perfect example of it is Mark Zahra.
when he started out in kalgoorlie and Perth
he was dreadful. He couldnt stay balanced. I dont think he could have even ridden a push bike his balance was that bad.

But given time and opportunity and he developed into the best apprentice(or near on it in australia). I think he rode climb the vine in the karrakatta plate to victory which kick started his career and linsay park certaintly helped him out.