ratings??

[Every Topic]

ratings amaze me - and its even more amazing that people put their faith in them.

does anybody know what the criteria for the Qtab ratings are - sometimes they seem to produce the most incredible nonsense.

an example...
Albion Park race 7 today
Qtab had number 4 rated at 100, number 5 rated at 88 and number 6 rated at 68.
the horses recent record is below...

4 OOBY DOOBY FT

423144s646321 - LT: 12-2-4 TS: 0-0-0 LS: 12-2-4 LTS: $4333
4-10 ALBPARK 29JUL03 2138MS FT br8fr C0 Luke McCarthy btn 8.8m 20/1 wnr CHUMUCA FT br3fr (2:03.3,59.2,29.0), 2nd GRAND MARNIER NZ FT br1fr, , 4th fence at bell, restrained at start.
6-12 ALBPARK 02AUG03 2138MS FT br7fr C0 Luke McCarthy btn 8.7m 20/1 wnr KOTARE CAMEO NZ FT br1fr (2:03.1,59.8,28.9), 2nd MZURI TOO FT br3sr, , 3rd horse 3 wide at bell.
3-11 ALBPARK 12AUG03 2138MS FT br5fr 3A0/3A1 Luke McCarthy btn 3.6m 11/4 wnr KAHUNA FAME NZ FT br1fr (2:02.7,58.0,28.3), 2nd STAR EMPRESS FT br7fr, , death seat at bell, showed gate speed, caught wide early.
2-12 ALBPARK 19AUG03 2138MS FT br4sr 3A0/3A1 Andrew McCarthy btn 1.1m 11/1 wnr MONTANA MOONLITE FT br4fr (2:00.7,60.4,29.9), 3rd GRAND MARNIER NZ FT br8fr, , 2nd horse 3 wide at bell.
1-12 ALBPARK 26AUG03 2138MS FT br2fr 3A1 Andrew McCarthy (2:00.8,59.1,29.7) 2.3m, hd 2/5 fav 2nd KAHUNA FAME NZ FT br1sr, 3rd KENTUCKY RAINBOW FT br1fr, , leader at bell, showed gate speed, swabbed.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 LIGHTNING BANNER FT

Trainer: STEWART DICKSON (CABOOLTURE) Driver: NATHAN POSTLETHWAITE
s481906478223325681643772702317 - LT: 47-6-17 TS: 0-0-0 LS: 30-3-9 LTS: $42570
11-12 GOLDCST 06AUG03 1609MS FT br4fr C0 Nathan Postlethwaite btn 17.2m $16.00 wnr MZURI TOO FT br5fr (1:58.7,60.1,29.4), 2nd CELEBRITY TORQUE FT br8fr, , 1st horse 3 wide at bell, caught wide.
2-8 GOLDCST 13AUG03 1609MS FT br5fr 3A0/3A1 Nathan Postlethwaite btn 4.7m $8.40 wnr KARINGAL SPUR FT br6fr (1:59.3,59.3,28.:cool:, 3rd MUSICAL MAC FT br4fr, , 1 out - 3 back at bell, restrained at start.
3-10 REDCLIF 22AUG03 2040MS FT br2sr C0 Nathan Postlethwaite btn 10.7m 3/1 wnr LEFTAMIRACLE FT br5fr (2:04.1,59.0,29.6), 2nd GOLD HEIR FT br2fr, , 1 out - 2 back at bell.
1-11 ALBPARK 26AUG03 2138MS FT br2fr C0/C1 Lola Kunde (2:03.0,58.1,28.1) 2.1m, 4.3m 6/1 2nd MELTON BAXSTER FT br2sr, 3rd CHUMUCA FT br3sr, , leader at bell, showed gate speed, swabbed.
7-11 ALBPARK 30AUG03 2138MS FT br3fr C0/C1 Nathan Postlethwaite btn 13.6m 5/1 wnr LADY TITIAN LOMBO FT br5fr (1:59.4,60.5,30.4), 2nd MYRNIONG LEFT FT br6fr, , pre race swab, 1 out - 2 back at bell, showed gate speed.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 LADY TITIAN LOMBO FT

s2352123831751 - LT: 23-5-8 TS: 0-0-0 LS: 13-3-6 LTS: $37910
3-11 GOLDCST 25JUN03 2100MS FT br1fr C0 Mathew Neilson btn 3.6m $2.30 fav wnr AQUARIUS RISING FT br5fr (2:03.5,59.8,30.1), 2nd CHUMUCA FT br8fr, , leader at bell, showed gate speed.
1-8 REDCLIF 14AUG03 2040MS FT br5fr 3A0/3A1 Mathew Neilson (2:05.7,61.1,30.2) 2.3m, 5.8m $1.50 fav 2nd KINKY MCCOOL FT br3fr, 3rd GOODBOY CHUCKY FT br1fr, , pre race swab, leader at bell, showed gate speed, caught wide early, swabbed.
7-12 ALBPARK 19AUG03 2138MS FT br5fr 3A0/3A1 John Cremin btn 11.7m 6/1 wnr MONTANA MOONLITE FT br4fr (2:00.7,60.4,29.9), 2nd OOBY DOOBY FT br4sr, , death seat at bell, showed gate speed, caught wide early.
5-11 ALBPARK 26AUG03 2138MS FT br5fr C0/C1 Mathew Neilson btn 12.0m 9/2 wnr LIGHTNING BANNER FT br2fr (2:03.0,58.1,28.1), 2nd MELTON BAXSTER FT br2sr, , 1 out - 3 back at bell, forced wide.
1-11 ALBPARK 30AUG03 2138MS FT br5fr C0/C1 Mathew Neilson (1:59.4,60.5,30.4) hd, 5.4m 20/1 2nd MYRNIONG LEFT FT br6fr, 3rd MELTON BAXSTER FT br1sr, , pre race swab, 3rd horse 3 wide at bell, restrained at start, swabbed.
=======================================


Firstly, I should point out that the Qtab site is actually incorrect in that they show number 6's last three starts as being 1 -7 -5 when in fact its last three starts have been 7 -5 -1, a reasonably significant error.

the race was for CO/C1's and both horses 5 and 6 had won at this level over the past two runs, with horse 6 running the fastest time of the three in winning in a sub 2 min time.

both 4 and 6 have similar "this season" records, 6 has run a faster time and won at this level yet 4 is rated at 100 pts whilst 6 is rated at only 68.

Surely such a system is a nonsense.

wouldnt an effective ratings system have given the horses very similar ratings??

any thoughts???

see ya
Every Topic

[Mark]

Ratings are very subjective.
Give 10 ratings "experts" the same info, & you can almost guarantee getting 10 different sets of selections, prices, whatever. The trick is to be the most accurate over a long period of time.

[topsy99]

ratings. oh yes.
i had four horses racing today who had performed (placed or won in listed company) during their career.

sheraton
another neptune
air cooled
lord danelee

i worked out that sheraton air cooled lord danelee had a chance so backed the three of them.
i even checked d c harrison as trainer of another neptune and it had not won for two years and was wondering why he was still racing it.
guess which of the four won.
(at 20/1)
i suppose it had performed fairly at sandown a couple of times lately.
leave a door open and guess what happens.

[shoto]

It's madness. The ratings QTab gives are actually the ratings from AAP, I think.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: shoto on 2003-09-02 22:50 ]</font>

[Every Topic]

shoto, I dont know who puts together the ratings but they are hopeless. even horses who have never run get a rating - based on what???
and no horse seems to get a rating below 50.

you would expect that a horse with a rating of 50 -60 would never have a chance of winning yet they seem to do so with regularity.

Id love to see some stats on the accuracy of the ratings - like how often the 100 wins compared to those lower down.

see ya
Every Topic

[TESTAROSSA]

Topsy99,

Should have looked at Another Neptunes career starts and wins and places.

Before the race he had 99 starts for 9 wins, 10 2nds and 10 3rds, after the win it became 100 starts 10 wins, 10 2nds and 10 3rds.

Not a bad way to bring up the century.

[shoto]

I'd love to see some stats on the accuracy of the ratings - like how often the 100 wins compared to those lower down.



Every Topic,
I emailed Qtab a few times asking for results or any kind of performance figures, to get some idea whether there was any value to them. I got what you might have expected - no reply.
Cheers,
Shoto