boring spring

[umrum]

with no champs this year spring is going to be the most boring and mixed yet.

oh well hopefully a horse can come out and be a star.

doubt it though!

[mystic]

with all the horses starting after a spell, round this time of year do you find it hard to pick a winner?
Just wandering because horses have been tipped to come in, then a complete outsider comes in with 60 odd dollar win????


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mystic on 2003-09-09 17:45 ]</font>

[crash]

This old Maxim about making money on the punt is worth considering, "don't do what everyboby ealse is doing". EVERYBODY bets big on the spring horses on Saterdays [and the bookies and Tabs love it].

In a very good artical I once read about what races never to bet on ...ruled out all but one race in Melb. and most in Syd. last Sat.
Just look at how hard those races were to pick and now we have a whole spring of them coming! Great to watch and follow, but to bet on? Mug money only I think [all stakes and cups races amongst the usual].

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-09 17:59 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-09 18:01 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-09 18:03 ]</font>

[topsy99]

races are very competitive at these times.
coming off wet tracks too. good horses fresh.
but form does show through.
scaredee cat dead heated for first in a listed race start before.
well bred. unfashionable name but obviously very good. adolescence group one placegetter won first up recently.
tumeric coming off wet track perth cup winner start before last bit of faith gets a long shot.
it was a good day really.
didnt back all of the above but tumeric made it a killer day.

[crash]

Nothing like a bit of hindsight.
Don't remember seeing the above wisdom before they jumped.

Please let us know your thoughts about this comming Saterday Topsy [ho ho!].

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-10 04:43 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-10 05:59 ]</font>

[topsy99]

i backed tumeric umrum.
i considered backing adolescence due to its first up win awhile back.
i backed scaredee cat when it lost on protest.
in every race there are several chances and when you see horses like tumeric at 60/1 going up from 1200 to 1700 it was worth a shot.
another thing i dont post forecasts as i do my horses race to race apart from running my computer program on friday nights to pick out the group and listed horses.
then race to race in front of the tv on saturdays. selections are done only from horses that have featured in listed or group races in the past. tumeric had won group two at his second last start.
hide the halo another horse i backed in perth was one of only two group horses in the race the other was the out of form turn to dream. my selections were easy. with the addition of a bit of faith.
hope this helps. i bet races and follow my system for fun. being cynical is not really worth our while.
best regards.

[crash]

Topsy,

Just having a bit of fun. I don't doub't you backed Tumeric and good on you. I'm just jelous as I had him in my black book with the words "has habit of winning at big odds" but had finished punting for the day and didn't see the win comming. It was the big distance rise that put me off.

cheers.

[umrum]

not really being cynical just looking for a new shirt after saturday.

i know big fields cause upsets and thats what i like about spring racing.

dont worry i'll be back this week, the tipping showdown is going to be a beauty.

cheers umrum

[mystic]

Very true, mug money, but I can proudly say I put $10 on Scardee Cat last Saturday - and to my delight he came in, although I have to admit the other 3 I backed done no good.

[topsy99]

thanks for the encouragement.
i know it rubs sometimes when we get lucky and i dont mean to be smug. i enjoy the comments on this forum and like the good will and humour. particularly when someone is lucky or clever enough to have $10 on a longshot and it comes off. thats the great thrill of punting.
for those interested i only ever back listed or group horses and then the most recent performance placed in a listed or group race.
you would be amazed at the odds.
note someone mentioned space age winning the boulder cup on the weekend i heard 200/1 mentioned.
space age has been placed or won in group and listed races 8 times. imagine a tickle at boulder. how many other horses could boast that type of history in the boulder cup.
out of form you say. since when has form had anything to do with winners.

[mystic]

I agree topsy99, it can be so unpredictable!

[umrum]

On 2003-09-10 12:01, mystic wrote:
I agree topsy99, it can be so unpredictable!


thats the thrill of it all.

[mystic]

hey umrum, did you name yourself after the horse?

[umrum]

On 2003-09-10 13:58, mystic wrote:
hey umrum, did you name yourself after the horse?



yes after the great old war horse

[mystic]

thought so.....

[partypooper]

On the question of backing big priced winners, really we do put ourselves in the firing line when we post on an open forum AFTER the race how we backed em' (EVEN IF PERFECTLY TRUE) I know we sometimes back horses or have savers on them close to jump time, just on gut feeling or whatever, I did it a few weeks ago with Matilda bay at Perth. But thought better of sharing my smug excitement on the forum. Anyone who posts a big priced winner BEFORE the race has a perfect right to pat themselves on the back! Otherwise good on anyone who can find the big'uns anyway.

[umrum]

dont know who that was directed at but i have never made longshot claims.

cheers

[partypooper]

Umrum, not having a go at anyone, just venting an opinion that if we have backed a big priced winner (for real) and post the fact, we can still expect some flak.

[umrum]

On 2003-09-10 16:31, partypooper wrote:
Umrum, not having a go at anyone, just venting an opinion that if we have backed a big priced winner (for real) and post the fact, we can still expect some flak.

yep agree totally pp. its a fair point although you cant tell everyone every horse you back all the time. Most would have laughed at suggestions that space age or adolescence could win.


cheers
have a good one

[crash]

And nobody is going to believe me that .......... is going to win this Saterday at big odds, so I will come back on Sunday and fill in his name.

Cheers.

[topsy99]

i dont think it matters whether you post before or after regarding good winners.
but if forum members are interested in why they were backed then i will tell you.
why they were backed may help others.
so please dont miss the point and think that it is entirely random. sure a lot miss but the prices are sometimes good enough to pay for a lot of sins.
the point i was making is that both tumeric and scaredee cat ( I did not back scaredee cat) both featured in listed and group races at their last and second last start.
(won or as in scaredee cats race lost on protest) . if this is not of interest then okay.
i have never made a secret on this forum that i back only listed and group horses and have occasionally get good prices.
and also over the past three month period am considerably (for me) to be in front.
wont mention next time.
regards

[umrum]

hey topsy keep posting mate, even if after.

i dont mind hearing. i'm sure the others dont mind and we can all take a bit of dry humour can't we?

[partypooper]

Hey Topsy99, wasn't having a go at you or anyone else, just talking in general, I read all your posts and what you say makes sense, and is a definite "different angle" so keep em coming!!

[mystic]

I think more people should be sharing there winners! It makes me feel good to know others are making money and I hope it makes others feel good to insted of just losing it.
So I dont know why anyone would want to involve dry humor When one has made a positive comment and added their comments or experiences to the forum.

I say congrats to anyone thats scored and keep up the good job!

I am proud to say that after watching Scardee Cat lose on Protest I was convinced he would come in the next week, call it luck, call it a gut feeling - whatever it was I am happy.

I guess umrum you are gonna quote me to!

[mystic]

topsy99, you are a true trooper for sharing your advice, I agree keep em coming!

[Seeker11]

On 2003-09-11 06:53, crash wrote:

And nobody is going to believe me that .......... is going to win this Saterday at big odds, so I will come back on Sunday and fill in his name.

Cheers.


Considering the convivial nature of this forum I see no harm in telling us your horse, Crash. If you don't and it gets up you do risk a bit of flack when you announce it. If you do and it doesn't win, well we are mugs if we back it without doing our own form analysis.

However I don't want to put you on the spot as I an new to the forum and am unaware if I have broken any etiquette.

[crash]

Put "Crash" on the spot?

Obviously new to the Forum!

Just to keep you happy: Rosehill R8/14 Umbhani E/W. Should be about 50/1.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-12 16:08 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-12 16:29 ]</font>