`Maiden Favs

[purpleheart68]

The Maiden Over post did generate much interest so I dropped it.I also note the amount of interest in Testas roughie thread.Seems like nobody likes backing favs,even when they consistsntly win!
Todays results
there were 17 races that I found,hope I didnt miss any.
There were 10 winners @ i.70,2.40,1.70,2.80,2.30,3.30,2.80,4.70,4.40,2.30.
There was an incredible 16 placegetters!!
1.20,1.40,1.10,1.10,1.10,1.30,1.30,2.10,2.10,1.30,1.00,1.40,1.50,1.20,1.10,1.40.
These are not unusual figures.The win s/r in the few months I have been using it has remained above 40%,and the place s/r above 80%.Admittedly the divs can be quite skinny at times,but the turnover is there .The opportunity for parlays is there.
cheers

[Desi]

Purple,
New to the PP forum... have ben watching Testas tips with interest but am a odds man and dont mind small returns as long as there is one... LOL...

[sportznut]

Purpleheart68,

The problem I had with your strategy was that in some races, it's still not apparent even with only a minute or two to go which horse is going to run favourite. When do you decide exactly which horse is 'the favourite'? Also, are you talking about the favourite at the track or the favourite on the TAB? On some occasions they're different.

[michaelv]

Hi Purpleheart68....I'm not really sure why most people on this forum don't seem to like going for the low, consistent returns (from favs)....guess it must be the avid diehard 'looking for excitement" punter in them but, I for one, do look for consistency as one of the main factors in my betting and I have to say the above returns DO look good for the sample shown (albeit a small one).

So, just clarifying...are you taking the FAV at the jump or are you using prepost markets to pick which horse is the fav?

Also, I bet mostly for the place and even with the skinny odds shown, which I'm sure I could increase by utilising the fixed odds on offer from various bookies for those races, the potential is intriguing. Even on those figures shown it came in at something like 27% POT but 94% of them placed in this sample! I'm sure this doesn't happen all the time.

I guess my big question is: You seem to have been following this for quite sometime and so should have quite a large sample by now - so could you provide the WIN and PLACE strike rates for that larger sample (with an average TAB dividend as well)? At an 80% Place strike rate you'd need to achieve an average dividend of $1.38 to make 10% POT and this might be a bit difficult. All up parlays could help I guess so, considering that, do you have the 'runs' available too? ie: the winning sequences?

[sportznut]

Michael, have a look at this thread:

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/viewtopic.php?topic=4981&forum=7

[Desi]

Thanks Sportsnut...seems pretty simple...not sure if its me though...

[purpleheart68]

G'day Sports,definitely Unitab fav.and I leave it to the last 90 seconds.I bet thru Telebet express so have no trouble getting on.Sometimes there will be a change of fav.but I have found this will usually happen in the last 3 minutes,presumably when the late(informed)money goes on.I don't care what's fav on course.
Michaelv,g'day mate.Can't provide you with what you asked for,as I have only been using this method for a few months,and the s/r is very good.Figures I had from 15 years ago showed a 43%win s/r from 2650 races,but unfortuneately I don't have any place s/r.
Stebbo ran it thru his database across some 6000 odd races and it had a 33%win s/r and 11% LOT,or something like that.It's on the other thread anyway.I can't operate it everyday due to other committments,so maybe the figures I'm currently getting won't hold up,only time will tell.
cheers

[becareful]

Purpleheart,

I ran it through about 18 months of my data and also came up with a loss from backing all maiden favs. However I did find that Saturdays showed a profit over that period whilst Monday to Friday showed losses on every day (Sunday was about break-even).

This was based on the Supertab favourite at jump time and on Supertab divs. If you were using a best TAB dividend type product (cant mention the name here) then returns would be improved.
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2004-03-01 10:52 ]</font>

[Mark]

Purple

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're backing the fav simply because it's the fav? Which way to the poor house?

[puntz]

At what price the Fav. is *not* a Fav. bet ?
Then determine why....