For those interested in the Kentucky Derby

[TheAvenger]

A free download of the past performances of the Kentucky Derby contenders. You must have Adobe Acrobat to open the file. The Derby runs May 1, and again, my early picks are 1. Lionheart* 2. The Cliff's Edge 3. Borrego.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/pps/04kentuckyderby.pdf

Regards,

Glenn

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[Paddy]

I'm glad the Derby is still over a week away Glenn, it will take me a while to understand that form guide :smile:

[Paddy]

Blimey Charlie! I'll really do need to take this race seriously - potentially $US 5 million if I can pick the exact order of finish (1 to last) or a share of $US 25K if I get the top entry (and no one picks the exact order of finish). Just have to convince them I'm a resident of the UK :grin:

[Paddy]

Hey Glenn, is it true that the current fav. (Smarty Jones) is around 10/1 :???:

Found these odds for the full field, are they for real?

1. Action This Day 16-1
2. Birdstone 19-1
3. Borrego 16-1
4. Eddington 13-1
5. Eurosilver SCR
6. Friends Lake 22-1
7. Imperialism 15-1
8. Limehouse 28-1
9. Lion Heart 16-1
10. Master David 12-1
11. Minister Eric 27-1
12. Preachinatthebar 20-1
13. Quintons Gold Rush 76-1
14. Read The Footnotes 17-1
15. Rock Hard Ten 14-1
16. Sinister G 64-1
17. Smarty Jones 10-1
18. Song of the Sword 77-1
19. St Averil 26-1
20. Tapit 23-1
21. The Cliff's Edge 16-1
22. Value Plus 25-1
23. Wimbledon 16-1

[Paddy]

Apologies for dominating this thread :smile: must be my BO! :grin:

[goldmember]

1. QUINTONS GOLDRUSH 35/1
2. BORREGO 30/1
3. IMPERIALISM 15/1

good luck

[Paddy]

My early picks for the 130th running of the world famous "Run for the Roses" are:

Smarty Jones is in fine form of late.
Won the 1 1/8 miles Arkansas Derby (GII) on April 10. I’m assuming he has a turn of foot, winning some shorter races by some big margins. Impressive breeding although I must admit does appear to be stronger in the speed lines as opposed to staying lines.


Lion Heart won a couple of good group races as a 2YO. Breeding on the dam side looks very strong & would suggest this fellow will run the derby distance right out.

Imperialism ran some good races as a 2YO over ground. Won the San Rafael (GII) 1 mile at Santa Anita March 6, running on strongly from last place to beat Lion Heart by a neck. Since placed in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) April 3.

Borrego looks to me to have excellent breeding for a race like the derby. Irish connection there as well. Ran on well from last in a field of ten to finish second, to Wimbledon (also in the derby), in the 1 1/16 miles Louisiana Derby (GII) March 7. Also placed in the Arkansas Derby (GII) April 10 1 1/8 miles, behind Smarty Jones.


Now don’t laugh too much Glenn, I’m pretending that I know what I’m talking about here. Your input (or anyone else from the UsofA) on my selections, would be greatly appreciated :smile:

[Raw Instinct]

I have to agree with you there Paddy damn that is hard to work out the form there but I liked the look of Borrego at the odds aswell.

[Sandgroper]

Still another 18 or so positions to work out Paddy, that's if you want that $5 mill :lol:

Have consulted the only yank I know (came to OZ to live not all that long ago). He assures me that The Cliff's Edge is the one to beat.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

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[william]

SMARTY JONES

"Smarty" Money Is Right: Unbeaten Favorite Smarty Jones Wins 130th Kentucky Derby

Throughout the spring he had outrun a sprinter's pedigree and his critics and, on Kentucky Derby Day, Smarty Jones outran a field of the nation's finest 3-year-olds and all of his doubters.


Pgm Horse Win Place Show
15 Smarty Jones 10.20 6.20 4.80
3 Lion Heart 8.20 5.80
10 Imperialism 6.20

REGARDS
WILL :smile:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: william on 2004-05-03 20:40 ]</font>

[TheAvenger]

The odds are real, but it's what we call a "morning line". We don't have (legal) bookmakers, our final odds are determined by the parimutual pool and it's distribution for each horse. The track and the government also scape a percentage of the "handle". the In last 25 years, the Kentucky Derby has almost always been won by a longshot, a horse better than 10-1 and usually from off the pace, (closer) too. Ofttimes very large odds. Favorites seem to fare very poorly in the Derby. I predict Smarty will be at 5-1 or less when the gate (barrier) opens. The 1 1/4 miles is further than most if not all of these horses have ever run, so distance ability is important. Unfortunately, we have bred for speed, not stamina in recent years, and Inbred good blood too much, so our horses are still fragile at 3 years old. Hope I have answered all the questions, ask whatever you like. I personally don't think Smarty Jones will even be in the minors. None of my U.S. cronies like him either. The old gent that taught me to handicap says Borrego is the best play for the money. I like Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge and Borrego. I will box all the top Beyer figures in the exactas and trifectas, because that has cashed every recent year, usually gloriously. The Beyer figs are the numbers in the middle of the form. They rate a horse as to speed and ability, even adjusted for track and surface. They work very well, when used with the proper interpretations. There are special 3 year old factors, which make us think that Smarty Jones will "bounce". I know how to make them, and could get filthy rich punting with them in Australia. Too bad I'm too bloody old to emigrate, according to your law. (over 45) haha.

Regards, Glenn


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[Paddy]

Thanks Glenn some very interesting reading :wink:

[Mr ed]

Its alright glenn you can teach us and make us all filthy rich.

I like EDDINGTON each way

Cheers ED

[MyHatMyCoat]

Read the Footnotes
Master David
Borrego
Smarty Jones

[TheAvenger]

Read The Footnotes is my 4th pick, although one should realize that no freshened (days out) horse has won this race in 48 years. A bit early there isn't it? It's 12:20 Friday here, putting you at about 2 AM?

Regards,

Glenn

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[TheAvenger]

The KD prep races are a very important factor in picking a Kentucky Derby winner. Most winners had a top 3 finish in one of the major prep races, those being, The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass and The Arkansas Derby. The Blue Grass has produced the most KD winners.

Regards,

Glenn


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[TheAvenger]

Action This Day, and Preachinatthebar are scratched.

Glenn

_________________
"Absolutely nothing is absolutely free"

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[Desi]

Crikey Glenn...got the pre stats exams shivers (all over again) after reading the KD field details and info...LOL!

Personally, have never seen the Derby race but it looks a thriller...is it popular all around the States (eg Melbourne Cup)?

Like Master David
The Cliffs Edge
Lion Heart

Good luck one and all!

[TheAvenger]

I have to keep changing the link to get better copies of the racing form. Yes, The Kentucky Derby is the race of races here. The others even with higher purses pale in comparison. This is THE race in the U.S., coast to coast, all 50 states, and said to be the most highly wagered race in the world. (though I wonder about that, what with that Aussie high roller putting millions on Lonhro)

Regards,

Glenn
_________________
"Absolutely nothing is absolutely free"

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-25 08:53 ]</font>

[Legend18]

Lion Heart
Master David
Smarty Jones
The Cliff's Edge
Read the Footnotes

Geez we could probably put the whole field in there as well.. lol

[MartinFriedman]

..
Tips for the Kentucky Derby, Saturday 1st May 2004, from the Friedman Family (Martin, Carol, & Zev) in Sydney, Australia.

#3 Lion Heart (Martin)
#18 Tapit (Carol)
#15 Smarty Jones (Zev)

Cheers,
...

[TheAvenger]

Several scratchings.. Wimbledon, St. Averil, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten. Race likely will run in the mud. I have listed a new link to the past performances(at the beginning of this thread)that now has riders and post positions.

Regards,

Glenn

[sportznut]

Glenn,

Am I reading it correctly? I can't believe it says the prizemoney is $1m? With the exchange rate, that's around $1.4m over here, and while that's certainly good, we've got several races worth more. I would have thought a race like the Derby would be worth at least 3 or 4 million. Is the Derby the biggest race in America simply because of it's prestige and not the prizemoney, or is there perhaps a big $ bonus to any horse that goes on and wins the Triple Crown?



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[TheAvenger]

Ah, very astute, Sportz. There is a 5 Millon bonus for winning the Triple Crown. There are also bonuses for winning other races then the Kentucky Derby. The purse money you read is correct. It's more about prestige and the value of a KD winner in the breeding barn. We have many races with larger purses, but this is THE one to win. Aussie racing has many large purses, and I am very impressed with them. Good luck, I am staying with my original selections, with Lionheart, 10-1 in the morning line, winning.

Regards,

Glenn

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[Paddy]

No / Barrier Horse Jockey Latest Odds
1 Limehouse Jose Santos 30-1
2 Song of the Sword Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 30-1
3 Lion Heart Mike Smith 10-1
4 Action This Day David Flores 30-1
5 Wimbledon Jerry Bailey SCRATCHED
6 Friends Lake Richard Migliore 15-1
7 Minister Eric Pat Day 30-1
8 Master David Alex Solis 12-1
9 St Averil Tyler Baze SCRATCHED
10 Imperialism Kent Desormeaux 15-1
11 The Cliff's Edge Shane Sellers 4-1
12 Borrego Victor Espinoza 20-1
13 Birdstone Edgar Prado 50-1
14 Read The Footnotes Robby Albarado 12-1
15 Smarty Jones Stewart Elliot 9-2
16 Castledale (IRE) Jose Valdivia, Jr. 15-1
17 Pollard's Vision John Velazquez 20-1
18 Tapit Ramon A. Dominguez 8-1
19 Pro Prado John McKee 30-1
20 Quintons Gold Rush Corey Nakatani 20-1

[Legend18]

Does anyone know if sky racing is showing the race? Just so I know whether to not lose sleep by getting up at 5am.. lol

[Raw Instinct]

Well the wet track and I do mean wet has changed my mind a little not that I can bet on it anyway don't have access to any accounts which allow me to.

I like Friends Lake, Borrego and Birdstone hard to pick one out really but my first 2 would be my top picks.

[TheAvenger]

I like Borrego as my 3rd pick. I used him in exactas and tris, and a small win bet as well.

Glenn

[TheAvenger]

The win pool is $18,500,000 with 48 minutes to post. A very heavily bet race.

Glenn

[Paddy]

Smarty Jones 4/1 fav at moment not long before start time. On FOX where I am. Some American Sports channel.

[Paddy]

Riders Up! My Old Kentucky Home! Mint Julep! Mud heap!! I like it!!!

Lion Heart firming 5/1.

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



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[Paddy]

1st Smarty Jones
2nd Lion Heart
3rd Imperialism
4th Limehouse

And a huge bonus goes to Smarty Jones!

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-05-02 08:37 ]</font>

[Paddy]

On 2004-04-22 17:53, Paddy wrote:
My early picks for the 130th running of the world famous "Run for the Roses" are:

Smarty Jones is in fine form of late.
Won the 1 1/8 miles Arkansas Derby (GII) on April 10. I’m assuming he has a turn of foot, winning some shorter races by some big margins. Impressive breeding although I must admit does appear to be stronger in the speed lines as opposed to staying lines.


Lion Heart won a couple of good group races as a 2YO. Breeding on the dam side looks very strong & would suggest this fellow will run the derby distance right out.

Imperialism ran some good races as a 2YO over ground. Won the San Rafael (GII) 1 mile at Santa Anita March 6, running on strongly from last place to beat Lion Heart by a neck. Since placed in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) April 3.

Borrego looks to me to have excellent breeding for a race like the derby. Irish connection there as well. Ran on well from last in a field of ten to finish second, to Wimbledon (also in the derby), in the 1 1/16 miles Louisiana Derby (GII) March 7. Also placed in the Arkansas Derby (GII) April 10 1 1/8 miles, behind Smarty Jones.


Now don’t laugh too much Glenn, I’m pretending that I know what I’m talking about here. Your input (or anyone else from the UsofA) on my selections, would be greatly appreciated :smile:



And the tri in order to Smarty Paddy :lol:

[TheAvenger]

Very perceptive as well as accurate, Paddy. I salute your fine analytical mind. As a chemical scientist, perhaps I use too much science in my handicapping, and not enough art. Oh, well, Bendigo and Sunshine Coast for me tonight.


Regards,


Glenn

[TheAvenger]

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Make it two in a row for the people's choice at the Kentucky Derby (search).



Smarty Jones (search) splashed his way past Lion Heart in the stretch and won America's premier horse race Saturday a year after Funny Cide captured the fancy of the racing world.

The victory triggered the biggest payoff in the game, with the undefeated Smarty Jones earning a $5 million bonus from Oaklawn Park along with the Derby winner's share of $854,800.

Smarty Jones ran his record to 7-for-7 and became the first unbeaten Derby winner since Seattle Slew (search) in 1977. Seattle Slew went on to win the Triple Crown, a feat Smarty Jones will attempt when he heads to the Preakness in two weeks.

Even over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs (search) — the first in 10 years — Smarty Jones raced just behind pace-setter Lion Heart. As the 18-horse field came off the final turn, the smallish colt moved up to challenge for the lead. Under Derby rookie Stewart Elliott, Smarty Jones staged his patented stretch surge and pulled away for the win.

"Man, that was great," winning trainer John Servis exclaimed after his first Derby. "That was a beautiful race. Picture perfect."

Servis and Stewart, a pair of Philadelphia Park regulars, became the first trainer-jockey duo to win the Derby on their first try since Spectacular Bid won in 1979 for trainer Bud Delp and jockey Rodney Franklin.

In the stands, Chapman got out of his wheelchair and shouted, "I can't believe it!" as he received hugs from Servis, friends and relatives. Chapman, hooked up to an oxygen tank because of his emphysema, then sat back down, taking deep breaths to calm himself, but smiling the whole time.



Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
15 Smarty Jones Elliott S 126 10.20 6.20 4.80
3 Lion Heart Smith M E 126 8.20 5.80
10 Imperialism Desormeaux K J 126 6.20
Finish Time: 2:04.06

Scratched: St Averil and Wimbledon
Also ran: Limehouse, The Cliff's Edge, Action This Day, Read the Footnotes, Birdstone, Tapit, Borrego, Song of the Sword, Master David, Pro Prado, Castledale (IRE), Friends Lake, Minister Eric, Pollard's Vision and Quintons Gold Rush
Winning Trainer: Servis John C - Owner: Someday Farm
$2 Exacta (15-3) Paid $65.20
$2 Trifecta (15-3-10) Paid $987.60
$2 Superfecta (15-3-10-1) Paid $41,380.20
$2 Pick 3 (5-10-5/9/15) 3 Correct Paid $1,470.80 Pick 3 Pool $987,799

$2 Pick 4 (2-5-10-5/9/15) 4 Correct Paid $38,594.20 Pick 4 Pool $2,130,894

$2 Pick 6 (1-1/3/7-2-5-10-5/9/15) 5 Correct Paid $6,878.00 Pick 6 Pool $441,558 Carryover Pool $268,246

$2 Daily Double (10-15) Paid $103.60 Daily Double Pool $615,859

$2 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY (1-15)) Paid $60.20 Daily Double Pool $2,038,878

$2 Future Wager (POOL 3 (17)) Paid $23.60
$2 Future Wager (POOL 2 (24)) Paid $10.80
$2 Future Wager (POOL 1 (24)) Paid $5.60
























_________________
"Absolutely nothing is absolutely free"

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-05-02 09:43 ]</font>

[jimmyc_dogs]

On 2004-04-22 19:16, william wrote:


SMARTY JONES


thats the only bit u added to this topic, well done:)

jimmy

[BettyBoop]

Did enjoy this thread, thankyou TheAvenger. Congratulations to all the smarties . Shame most Aussie punters didn’t have a chance to invest.

Yes thank you Glenn, know a lot more about the Kentucky Derby now, than before your thread.

Well done to all the smarties that tipped the winner (William, MyHatMyCoat, Legend18 & MartinFriedman).

I was with sportznut on this one (again) - oh well, we live to fight another time :smile:


As for Paddy & his tri in order, FLUKE! FLUKE! FLUKE!! :lol:

[Chuck]

does anyone know if that 1st-last combo was one? i heard it was a potential 5 mil up for grabs

[Paddy]

The $5 Mill went begging. 250,000 entrants. Of which 486 picked the first three in order, and 21 picked the first four in order. One contestant picked the first five in order and collected a cool $25K US (Total consolation prize pool).

[MartinFriedman]

..
Results for the Kentucky Derby, Saturday 1st May 2004, from the Friedman Family (Martin, Carol, & Zev) in Sydney, Australia.

#3 Lion Heart (Martin) - 2nd @ 11/2
#18 Tapit (Carol) - unplaced
#15 Smarty Jones (Zev) - 1st @ 4/1

Cheers,
...