NRL R22

[goldmember]

STGEORGE ILLAWARRA v STORM

The saints have 3 wins + 1 draw from 11 against the storm and haven't beaten them since R18 2000,at wollongong the saints have 1 win +1 draw from 4 against the storm.At home this year the saints have won 4/8, winning 2/5 at wollongong, while the storm have won 2/8 on the road.

last 4 H2H:
R 6 2002 STORM 12- 4 @ OLYMPIC PK
R14 2002 DRAW 30-30 @ WOLLONGONG
R24 2003 STORM 22-14 @ WOLLONGONG
R 3 2004 STORM 34- 6 @ OLYMPIC PK

KNIGHTS v RAIDERS

From their last 8 clashes both teams have won 4 each, with the knights winning 6/9 at newcastle against the raiders, with the raiders last win there in r14 1996, the last 5 games have gone with the home side. At home this year the knights have won 3/9 while the raiders have won 3/11 away.

last 4 H2H:
R 4 2002 KNIGHTS 52- 6 @ NEWCASTLE
R18 2002 RAIDERS 30-24 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R24 2003 RAIDERS 24-16 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R 7 2004 RAIDERS 19-18 @ BRUCE STADIUM

WARRIORS v BRONCOS

The warriors have won 5/16 against the broncos, winning 3/7 at ericsson[ winning the last 3 played at ericsson], at home this year the warriors have won 4/9 while the broncos have won 8/9 away.

last 4 H2H:
R23 2002 WARRIORS 18- 4 @ ERICSSON
R 5 2003 WARRIORS 32-12 @ ANZ STADIUM
R24 2003 WARRIORS 22-14 @ ERICSSON
R 1 2004 BRONCOS 28-20 @ SUNCORP

PANTHERS v MANLY

The panthers won their last clash at penrith against manly , but had lost their previous 2 there to the nthn eagles,at home this year the panthers have won 6/8 while manly have won 2/7 away.

last 4 H2H:
R26 2002 PANTHERS 68-28 @ BROOKVALE
R 8 2003 PANTHERS 30-29 @ PENRITH
R25 2003 PANTHERS 52-26 @ BROOKVALE
R13 2004 MANLY 20-12 @ BROOKVALE

WEST TIGERS v SOUTHS

The w/tigers have won only 1/5 against souths, losing both games played at leichardtagainst them. The w/tigers have won won 4/7 on their home grounds this year,winning 3/3 at leichardt, while souths have 1 win + 1 draw from 10 away.

last 4 H2H:
R21 2002 W/TIGERS 50- 4 @ S.F.S
R 5 2003 SOUTHS 32-22 @ S.F.S
R22 2003 SOUTHS 18-16 @ LEICHARDT
R 2 2004 SOUTHS 17-16 @ S.F.S

BULLDOGS v COWBOYS

The bulldogs have won 12/14 against the cowboys, winning 4/6 at home against them,including 2/2 at the showgrounds.The bulldogs have won 7/7 at home this year, while the cowboys have 5 wins + 1 draw from 9 away games.

last 4 H2H:
R24 2001 BULLDOGS 30-22 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R21 2002 BULLDOGS 34-26 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R20 2003 BULLDOGS 42-22 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R16 2004 BULLDOGS 32-18 @ DAIRY FARMERS

ROOSTERS v SHARKS

The roosters have won 10 of their last 13 against the sharks, incuding the last 5 straight and winning 5 of the last 7 played at the S.F.S. The roosters have won 9/10 at the S.F.S this year , while the sharks have won 5/10 away games.

last 4 H2H:
FNL 2002 ROOSTERS 32-20 @ S.F.S
R 4 2003 ROOSTERS 40-20 @ TOYOTA PK
R22 2003 ROOSTERS 36-28 @ S.F.S
R10 2004 ROOSTERS 38-18 @ TOYOTA PK

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-04 16:09 ]</font>

[sportznut]

My Ratings:

St Geo/Ill by 4
Newcastle by 8
Brisbane by 4
Penrith by 14
W.Tigers by 8
Bulldogs by 12
Syd Roosters by 16

[jakelee]

So far $82,000 has come for the Dragons both with the -3.5 start (-4.5 in some books), and straight up at SportsTAB.

[goldmember]

Jake, heard this morning that on sportstab yesterday that there was $90,000 on the dragons H2H and HCP, while $700 went on the storm, mainly because the rumour is SCOTT HILL wont play.

[jakelee]

Hi Goldmember,

Something's going on... a few bookies have just suspended betting on the Dragons vs Storm came. Maybe Slater or Orford are injured? See if I can find out. Didn't think Scott Hill could move that much money!

OK, looks like it's just Scott Hill. Someone must have a direct line to the team doctor.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-05 09:51 ]</font>

[goldmember]

I think that the storms ordinary form away from home plus hill going to be out would move that much money,bookies would normally suspend prices for a short time when that happens.Their away form this year is well below what it should be, losing to the warriors, souths, w/tigers and struggled to beat the eels, so stgeorge would be a lot harder to beat than them. If the storm had good form away from home i would say they were good things but there average so i think the dragons should win by 8-10 pts

[goldmember]

This weeks ratings:

ST GEORGE 121
STORM 118

KNIGHTS 125
RAIDERS 116

PANTHERS 123
MANLY 117

BRONCOS 125
WARRIORS 117

W/TIGERS 116
SOUTHS 115

BULLDOGS 131
COWBOYS 124

ROOSTERS 125
SHARKS 118

not as much value as last week.

Last week results top rated teams,

1. bulldogs won $1.45
2. roosters won $1.53
3. broncos won $1.47
4. cowboys won $2.60
5. knights won $1.60
6. raiders lost ---
7. w/tigers won $2.15

[sportznut]

If Scott Hill is out, my rating is now St Geo/Ill by 8 points

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-05 10:18 ]</font>

[goldmember]

ST GEORGE by 8
BRONCOS by 8
KNIGHTS by 14
PANTHERS by 16
W/TIGERS by 4
BULLDOGS by 16
ROOSTERS by 13

[goldmember]

At sport odds they backed the saints -4.5 into $1.85 and changed the start to -5.5 and they have been backed in again @ $1.85

[sportznut]

St George have a poor record against the Storm, so I wouldn't say they are any certainties. Melbourne haven't played well away from home this year however.

[goldmember]

Saints are unpredictable, but should lift against the better sides at home nearing the semis, the roosters were flat against the eels and souths [in wet] but lifted for the saints and storm, their not one of my sides but i'm going to bck them tomorrow if their still around $1.60-$1.55, but i wont take under that. If i followed my price ratings last week i would have had 7/7 but left manly out, this week i think there are 5 favs under the odds, 1 even and 1 over the odds[knights the best value H2H]so i will betting exotics mostly.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-05 19:29 ]</font>

[goldmember]

PLAYERS OUT OF TEAMS LISTED

STORM -S.HILL

BRONCOS -S.MINTO
-S.WEBKE

SHARKS -B.KIMMORELY [very unlikely]

[Mr J]

Well I went against the world and bet on Melbourne +6.5. IMO most other people have made bets based on injury and no other data.

[rabbitz]

Good Bet Mr J. St.George are as reliable as throwing a stick to a blind dog,he might hear it and run its general direction or he might ignore it altogether,having said that,both teams when their on, play quite well ,its not a game for the faint hearted so i havent gone near it
cheers

[Mr J]

Well there were reasons why I might've just stayed away:

1. Business end of season, Dragons should perform for this one.

2. Injury, my model doesn't factor in injuries so how much of a difference has it made?

3. Heavy action, coming in on the Dragons. Was it sharp (pro bettor) money or just public?

4. Melbourne have only won 2/8 away from home.

Reasons for betting:

1. Business end of season, Melbourne will play up.

2. Injury. When this info comes out, people often over value the importance. Melbourne are a good club so should have enough depth to allow the injury not to have a huge impact.

3. Heavy action. Other lines don't move nearly so heavily, unless there is an injury. In fact the only one I can clearly remember is Easts vs Knights when knights had countless players out. The advantage off one single injury can not warrant such a large bet as % of BR. My conclusion is that it's not sharp money.

4. Dragons have won just 4/8 at home, and just 1/4 vs a more important factor I'd prefer not to state.

Melbourne also fits a very important trend.

I agree that on their day both teams are capable of walking over pretty much any other team.

I weighed up the pros and cons and Melbourne came out on top.

My system picked melbourne, I just wanted to to more work on this one and make sure I was comfortable with it.

[lembanker wannabe]

Hi there Mr.J
U seem to have a system that goes against public opinion most times and that no doubt impresses me. How long have u been sports betting mate? What is your thoughts on the three sunday games? I have all favourites winning...Bulldogs, Roosters and West Sydney and no doubt that kind of scares me some.

[Mr J]

I'm actually more confident going against public opinion than agreeing with it. Bookies will always shade public opinion, so naturally value is more likely to be on the other side :wink:

Haven't done saturday/sunday games yet.

Been sportsbetting around a year now, but only started handicapping (making my own picks) a few months ago in Super 12s.

[goldmember]

MR J, normally i would have stayed out of fridays game,[cant trust stgeorge]but this year melb have been dreadful on the road, only playing a couple of good halfs and their defence has been fragile for a while and while i agree most of the time 1 injury wouldnt move that much money, it depends if its a key player or not, there has been a few games this year when theres been a few out injured and teams backed heavily, penrith v melb,penrith v bulldogs plus others ,the smarties would have backed the dragons early before he was officially ruled out and the start [+3.5]is only 1 try any,thats nothing, i know after that every body jumps on the bandwagon and what started out value wouldnt end up being value,i missed the early price so instead of taking unders i went a saints try, first scoring play @ $2.15, even better value.

cheers

[Chuck]

Knights by 7
Broncos by 6
Panthers by 12
Tigers by 2
Bulldogs by 20
Roosters by 24

Chuck

[Mr J]

I dont agree (about melb being terrible on the road). They might have only won 2/8 on the road, but only one game was lost by more than 8, i.e. they've been competitive.

The dragons have been appauling at home winning just 4/8, and just 1/4 against interstate teams.

Alot of people won big last night, but not for the right reasons. I doubt it was the injury that led to such a comfortable victory.

[Mr J]

Today have the panthers -12.5 and the raiders at +6.5.

Panthers are my warriors. Inconsistent and I don't think my system picks them well. It is the business end of the season, so they should be looking for some form (along with the eagles not being motivated). I see penrith as very inconsistent, and that penrith might take this one easy, so a close game wouldn't surprise me.

Have been good at picking the raiders and I don't rate newcastle so am more comfortable with that one. Both sides will want to pick up this game to step closer to securing a finals spot. Should be a decent game.

[sportznut]

Warriors (+9.5) another winner for the Homedog system. Now for the ultimate test tomorrow..... Richmond.

[sportznut]

Ohhh, forgot one. The Wallabies... another homedog winner! :smile:

[Mr J]

I was only the wallabies as well, but on the outight (2.35). Helped cushioned the 2-4 (thanks to my raiders +5.5 and swans miserable effort).

[goldmember]

I disagree also, that being away from home plus such an important player out that the people won for the those exact reasons, plus i wouldnt say penrith are very inconsistant, they have had a lot of injuries and key players out, they are hopeless without their half back CRAIG GOWER but when he's there they are a totally different team, a fact you yourself said that your model doesnt take into account.

cheers

[Mr J]

No it doesn't take injuries into account. I'm going to see if I can somehow factor them in for next season. I might just end up having a list for different classes of players (important players) and giving a team penalty if the player is out (with the penalty amount depending on what class of player).

[Paddy]

Go the Bulldogs!!