AFL Rd 20

[sportznut]

Fri 7:40 Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 2:10 Geelong v Fremantle
Sat 2:10 Hawthorn v Brisbane
Sat 7:10 Melbourne v Sydney
Sat 7:40 W.Bulldogs v Port Adel
Sun 1:10 Adelaide v Richmond
Sun 2:10 Kangaroos v St Kilda
Sun 4:10 West Coast v Carlton

[sportznut]

My Ratings:

Essendon by 5
Geelong by 28
Brisbane by 40
Melbourne by 22
Port Adel by 45
Adelaide by 28
St Kilda by 18
West Coast by 33


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-10 21:48 ]</font>

[moeee]

Looks to me Sportznut,that we are running the same ratings program.

Here's my tips.

Essendon 12
(Stay home all,and pull up your armchairs)
Geelong 29
(includes bonus of 12 for Fremantle being shit and penalty of 6 for not going on with it last week against the Tigers)
Brisbane 61
(Boy are they gonna be ANGRY)
Melbourne 6
(How do you factor in a death in the family?)
Port 44
(does not yet include the penalty the Dogs will incur for having a happy coach.NOT.)
Adelaide 38
(Terry Wallace doesn't start till next season)
St.Kilda 18
(Anyone at St.Kilda got heart problems?)
Eagles 38
(includes a 6 point bonus for Chris Judd chasing Brownlow votes)

[sportznut]

Agree with you about that query on the Swans game. Will they be more determined this week or will they simply not be able to concentrate fully on the game?

[moeee]

Well I gave The Bulldogs a bonus last week for the coach being sacked.Trouble is the coach was discontent big time and apparently coached accordingly.
It seems Sydney's demise last week was not due to the demise of their elderly coach.
But funerals and depression are very lacklustre affairs.2 goal penalty for the Swans.

[sportznut]

The whole Coach sacking thing only really works if he's replaced immediately. It doesn't seem to make any difference if they stay in the job until the end of the year.

[sportz&all]

On 2004-08-11 13:22, sportznut wrote:
The whole Coach sacking thing only really works if he's replaced immediately. It doesn't seem to make any difference if they stay in the job until the end of the year.


Seems you are stating the blooming obvious there sportznut :smile:

[sportznut]

Tell that to Moeee then. He was the one that gave the Bulldogs a bonus last week, despite the fact their 'sacked' coach is still there.

[rabbitz]

Lions -17.5
West coast -17.5
North Queensland -5.5
St George -5.5
DIVIDEND $3.37
Cheers
Other games
Pies by 15 (if Lloyd doesnt play,otherwise pies by 6)
Geelong v Fremantle (cats by 48)
Hawthorn v brisbane (lions by 58)
Dees v Swans (Dees by 41)
West coast v Carlton (west coast by 56,more if they decide to kick between the middle sticks)
Dogs V port (port by 33)
Adelaide v Richmond (couldnt give a flying
Jenny Craig by 20)
Kangaroos v St Kilda (St Kilda by 10)


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: rabbitz on 2004-08-11 15:05 ]</font>

[goldmember]

ESSENDON v COLLINGWOOD

Essendon have won 10 of their last 12 against the pies,at the m.c.g this year essendon have won 5/7 while the pies have won 3/8.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 ESSENDON 126-71 @ M.C.G
R 5 2003 ESSENDON 147-81 @ M.C.G
R22 2003 COLLINGWOOD 83-67 @ M.C.G
R 5 2004 ESSENDON 112-79 @ M.C.G

GEELONG v FREMANTLE

Geelong have won 10/15 against the dockers,winning all 7 played at skilled stadium. AT home this year the cats have won 6/6 while the dockers have won 5/8 away.

last 4 H2H:
R 5 2002 GEELONG 111-49 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R20 2002 FREMANTLE 117-72 @ SUBIACO
R12 2003 FREMANTLE 88-72 @ SUBIACO
R 5 2004 FREMANTLE 117-91 @ SUBIACO

HAWTHRN v BRIS LIONS

The hawks have won 5/12 against the lions,winning 3/4 games played in melb,with 1 win each at the m.c.g,the lions have won their last 5 games against the hawks.The hawks have won 1/9 at the m.c.g this year while the lions have won 4/9 away.

last 4 H2H:
R 2 2002 LIONS 148-46 @ GABBA
R17 2002 LIONS 124-68 @ M.C.G
R15 2003 LIONS 93-81 @ GABBA
R 5 2004 LIONS 110-62 @ GABBA

MELBOURNE v SWANS

Melb have won 1 of their last 5 against the swans, with this game their 1st meeting at telstra dome. Melb are 1/1 at the dome this year [w/bulldogs] while the swans have 1/3 in melb[carlton]and their 1st game this year at the dome.

last 4 H2H:
R21 2002 SWANS 145-77 @ M.C.G
R 5 2003 SWANS 109-85 @ S.C.G
R22 2003 SWANS 94-60 @ M.C.G
R 5 2004 MELB 111-99 @ STADIUM AUST

WESTERN BULLDOGS v PORT ADELAIDE [in darwin]

This the 1st game at marrara oval for either side, w/bulldogs have won 3/11 against port adel, with port winning the last 6. Port have won 4/8 interstate while w/bulldogs have won 1/6 interstate this year.

last 4 H2H:
R21 2001 PORT 150-73 @ TELSTRA DOME
R13 2002 PORT 161-115 @ AAMI STADIUM
R15 2003 PORT 108-93 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 5 2004 PORT 119-64 @ AAMI STADIUM

ADELAIDE v RICHMOND

Adelaide have won their last 6 against richmond, at home this year the crows have won 4/9 while richmond have won 1/4 interstate [swans].

last 4 H2H:
R 6 2002 ADEL 105-73 @ TELSTRE DOME
R21 2002 ADEL 87-65 @ AAMI STADIUM
R14 2003 ADEL 72-44 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 5 2004 ADEL 134-59 @ TELSTRA DOME

KANGAROOS v STKILDA

The kangaroos won 8 straight against stkilda before losing their last 2 to them. The kangaroos have won 3/5 at telstra dome against stkilda, while this year they are 3/6 at the dome and the saints are 11/11.

last 4 H2H:
R14 2002 KANGAROOS 128-84 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 1 2003 KANGAROOS 96-70 @ M.C.G
R16 2003 ST KILDA 132-127 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 5 2004 ST KILDA 130-65 @ TELSTRA DOME

WEST COAST v CARLTON

W/coast have won 2 of their last 7 against carlton,while they have won 7/13 at home aginst them. At home this year the eagles have won 7/9 while carlton have won 1/4 interstate [adelaide].

last 4 H2H:
R10 2001 CARLTON 149-30 @ OPTUS OVAL
R12 2002 W/COAST 89-88 @ OPTUS OVAL
R15 2003 W/COAST 187-71 @ SUBIACO
R 5 2004 CARLTON 92-43 @ OPTUS OVAL




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-11 15:31 ]</font>

[goldmember]

ESSENDON by 40
GEELONG 32
SWANS 20
BRIS LIONS 38
PORT ADEL 20
ADELAIDE 14
ST KILDA 24
W/COAST 28

[moeee]

On 2004-08-11 14:13, sportznut wrote:
Tell that to Moeee then. He was the one that gave the Bulldogs a bonus last week, despite the fact their 'sacked' coach is still there.


Well,tell that to the Richmond football team then.They are the ones who gave the Lions a huge fright when Danny Frawley got sacked.
My data was the same but the information was not the same.
Danny Frawley still cared about doing the job.
Unknown to me,obviously Peter Rohde didn't.

[sportznut]

Yeah, I guess you're right there. Sorry about that. I must admit I was one that thought Richmond would be competitive that night for that very reason. I reckon Frawley is more of a fighter though. I think Rohde's heart just may not have been in it last week.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-11 18:25 ]</font>

[mug punta]

Been browsing thru this sight recently and have been impressed by the stats and info passed on. Well done to all!!
In round 20 of AFL action this week I suggest you all jump on the Dees. They are a very even side and well underrated. The swans will have the knocking stuffed out of them this week from the funeral. I suggest you back the dees to win, at the line, 15+ and something small at 40+ . Also, how far a fired up LIONS outfit.

[moeee]

Nice to see someone put their mouth on the line.
Fortunate you didn't make a similar comment about the underrated Dees last week.

[mug punta]

Thats fair enough mo. BUT, any punter who bets heavily on any Victorian side who's travelling interstate deserves all the punishment they get.
In all honesty I just reckon the Swannies will be flat as a tack. They had their first training session for the week only yesterday and the Dee's will be primed to show they are the REAL DEAL. If the dee's win I reckon they can go on and go places in September but if they lose this week they are GOOORRRNNNEEEE!!!!

[mug punta]

Gday Rabbitz, Just curious where you are getting lines about Brisbane winning by 17+. I must be shopping very poorly.

[sportznut]

I think he's probably using Sportodds where you can pick your own starts and the prices go up or down accordingly.

[mug punta]

Thanks Sportznut, that makes more sense to me!!

[moeee]

Don't sound as confident about those Dees today,Mug Punta.Musta bin usin' summin de udder day.Hiccup!
And what is it with Goldmember and Sydney.Your margins scare me sometimes.

[mug punta]

No, im confident. They're my anchors this week. I suggest you jump on board and have a nice collect. The first key I ever learnt in Sportsbetting is back good teams and don't punt on bad teams hoping they will turn it around. The Dees have shown themselves to be a good outfit this year, being an evn year and all.

[goldmember]

I like to have a crack at a upset and moeee its a coincidence that i picked the swans again,i dont normally back the swans, especially at home cause theialways unders, but i can tell you they ARE ALL FIRED up for a big one and while the demons are going well i think the'll crack under the pressure this week,well at least i hope so.

[mug punta]

My bets for Saturday are

Geel to win
Bris to win
Melb to win
Port to win
Odds @$2.21 for $100

Geel -29
Bris -39
Odds@$3.61 for $40

Geel -29
Melb -16 $3.61 for $40

Geel -29
Port -45 for $40

Bris -39
Melb -16 for $40

Bris -39
Port -45 for $40

Melb -16
Port -45 for $40

Geel -29
Bris -39
Melb -16
Odds $6.96 for $30

Geel -29
Melb -16
Port -45 for $30

Bris -39
Melb -16
Port -45 for $30

Geel -29
Bris -39
Melb -16
Port -45
Odds @$13.20 for $20

Fingers and TOES crossed!!

[sportznut]

Geez, that's a lot of bets!

[moeee]

Surely you have the same bet twice at least twice in amongst that lot!

[mug punta]

It's a parlay bet. It means that if two lob I probly get my money back. If three get up I have a lovely collect and if all 4 salute it's a bonanza!!!

[Mr J]

parlay=multi

[sportznut]

A parlay is a multi where you have 4 different teams and all combinations covered.

[goldmember]

Lions were nver going to win by much in the mud, i had them -17.5 &-18.5 and was never going to collect until the last 10 minutes when all the players were at 1 end,so hawthorn were not going to score late in the game,from now on any game with a big start i'll have to see what the weather is like before i bet. PHEW !

[moeee]

Shouldn't have made any difference.Hawthorn played in the same conditions.
6-4 the Premiership?.Looking back over their last 8 games it just don't figure.
Big win St.Kilda next Sunday.
Might even back the Kangaroos the week after.
No finals in Queensland this year.

[goldmember]

I know they both play in the same conditions, but it brings the teams a bit closer together ,but i was keeping an eye on the geelong game on the other t.v and they seem to do it a bit easier,so your right moeee.

[sportznut]

Yep, the homedog system strikes again. I was pretty confident when I saw the conditions. It was hard enough to just SCORE 42 points, let alone win by that much.

[moeee]

They say that last nights game wouldn't have helped with the condition of todays game.
I'm doing very ordinary after some good collects a month ago.Bring on 2005.

[sportznut]

No it wouldn't have helped. It was a bog. Back to the bad old days. Haven't seen conditions like that for a while.

[Mr J]

Really don't know who's teaching you guys the meanings of these terms (spread, parlay), but they are wrong. This is just american lingo, and the widespread terms used.

A multi IS a parlay. EXACT same thing.

Spread is the same as handicap/start/linebetting/pointspread etc/.

[moeee]

Mr J.You really need to get out more.
A Multibet is a multiple bet where you multiply the individual prices of each selection.All selections must win.
A parlay gives you a collect even if only one leg gets up.
And if line betting and start betting are the same,how come sportodds give different prices?.
Can an international betting agency be wrong?.:eek:

[sportznut]

Mr J,

In this case a 'Parlay' is simply 11 separate multi bets using the same 4 teams and covering all different combinations:
ABCD
ABC
ABD
ACD
BCD
AB
AC
AD
BC
BD
CD

[sportznut]

Anyway, whatever you call it, I'm pretty sure Mug Punta hasn't done well because of Melbourne's loss and Brisbane winning by less than the required margin.

[goldmember]

Sportz and j are right,a parlay on T.A.B tickets is 4 TEAMS or 4 HORSES involving 11 multi bets, and a multi is a parlay of any amount of legs,and moeee, you have to get 2 legs in for 1 collect.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-15 09:57 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Moeee, BOO

I hope i didn't scare you.

cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-15 10:04 ]</font>

[moeee]

After the shock I got looking at my Bank balance,nothing scares me.
Originally had Melbourne to win by 6 points,but penalized Sydney 12 points for missing out on training due to funeral.

At our local tote,we got a betting method called Parlay.And you can further fine it down into a Parlay 1,Parlay 2,Parlay 3.
Parlay 2 combines your selections into doubles and Parlay 1 does the lot including a unit on each individual selection.

[goldmember]

OK gotcha, seems the states have different bet types, up here the parlay has 4 or you can have 3 if you want but you need 2 winners for a collect, but we have ALL UP tickets where you can take 2,3 or 4 selections but thay all have to win.

[sportznut]

Had a feeling that Sydney would be really fired up to do well this week, but they were playing away, so I didn't know if it would be enough for victory.

[mug punta]

Well multi ,parlay whatever you wnat to call it. Fact is I well and truly overated the Dee's and I hate Melbourne's weather. Hawthorn are hopeless and if it was even a bit dryer they would have won by plenty. Oh well, whinging is only for the Poms. Today is a fresh day and time to try and win some back
Adel 1-39, Saints 20+ and Eagles 40+ will hopefully dig me out of this little hole.

[Mr J]

Can an international betting agency be wrong?.:eek:


Yes.

A parlay is a series of bets where the winnings are carried over to the next bet, etc. All legs must win to collect (if there is a draw that bet is cut out). This is what a parlay is for the majority of the betting world.

Aussie books wouldn't know the correct terms if it bit them on the ass. We had the same discussion about the term 'spread'.

[goldmember]

Here in australia, we call it ARSE,not ASS or do we have to copy the septic tanks in everything we do?.

cheers

[Mr J]

I'm sorry but we started adopting american culture before I was born. ass/arse are both acceptable. Spelling differences are also less important than incorrect terms.

[goldmember]

I dont know what started all this off, but it is nit picking ,another thing we picked up from those yanks, those inbreds have alot to answer for,dont they ?

[mug punta]

You dont have to be dead to be stiff!! The crows kick 8 unanswered goals in the last quarter to blow me out of my treble. Just one of those weekends I guess. Curious what other people think of the race for the flag?
I think after the weekend that it's very,very open.
This might sound silly but I reckon we might see a team from the bottom half of the 8 win the flag.
Saints look great but can they perform in the finals away from the comfort of the dome.
Lions are really hard to assess. They're just going at the moment and i wonder if they are starting to show the wear and tear of being a slightly older side but you just know they find a gear in September.
Port in my opinion can't win it. I don't think they have the midfield to compete and I reckon they are still susceptible when teams play hard 1 on 1 footy, which happens every year in Sept.Melb look like they are flat at the moment and it's really not the time of year to have a slump, but if they can play finals at the G they will still be hard to beat.
Geelong are really hard at it and in my opinion the physically toughest in the whole comp. I guess their ? mark is do they have the forwards to kick winning scores come Sept.
Swans must be reasonable value as a good roughie, apart from there terrible fade out last week, they are one of the form teams of the comp. I think the worry with them is that they run so hard in games they never seem to have petrol tickets in the last quarter and they would have to travel a lot in Sept.
West Coast to seem to be peaking at the right time but how will they cope with the travel factor.
Essendon can't win it. I follow them and they are not good enough to win 4 big games in a row
Freo- No
Very hard to work out.

[goldmember]

I reckon its opened right up now with probaly 5 or 6 chances, going to steady my bets until the finals though, before i bet up again,

1.& 2 LIONS/PORT
3.& 4 GEELONG/ST KILDA
5.& 6 W/COAST/SWANS

probably wrong,but what does anyone else think,

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-15 18:56 ]</font>

[mug punta]

Fairly close to my ratings Goldmember, but just curious why you think Port should be rated so highly.
P.s HEY sportsnutz Just looking thru all these other forums you really do live up to your name. If i have a sports trivia night ur invited

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mug punta on 2004-08-15 19:04 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Mug punta on 2004-08-15 19:07 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Yeah, i know they were the best team all through last year and choked in the finals, but, dunno, something is telling me that it could be different this year and with a couple of teams improving this year and some others on the wane and indifferent performances lately,it just might be their year,but i hope the lions can come back to their best because they are still the team to beat.

[moeee]

Just had a look at the map Mr J.I'm afraid you're wrong this time.We are definately in Australia."Would you like fries with that".

[Mr J]

Did I say we weren't in Australia?

[moeee]

On 2004-08-15 18:46, mug punta wrote:
You dont have to be dead to be stiff!! The crows kick 8 unanswered goals in the last quarter to blow me out of my treble. Just one of those weekends I guess.


Relax there Mug Punta.
I had the Crows at +32.5,so just remember,for every loser there has to be a winner.
Had a similar drama with the Kangaroos.Had an +18.5 start and until the final quarter,I was standing in the queue.
Turned out I was in the wrong queue and slowly made my way to the far one.