AFL ROUND 22

[mug punta]

Just thought i'd post my early thoughts for rd 22.
Looks a great weekend for AFL betting
Coll vs Carl- too hard
Rich vs Sydney- Sydney easily
WCE vs Melb- WCE to win comfortably, I'm jumping right off the Dees
Bris vs Kang- Are you serious?
Saints vs Freo- Saints at the dome easily
Adel vs Port- Adel if i can get a 15pt start
Ess vs W.B- Essendon by plenty
Geel vs Haw- Geelong by plenty

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mug punta on 2004-08-23 12:16 ]</font>

[boxhead]

g'day,
Coll,- blues don't match up
Syd
Dees to bounce back
Bris (will back north at price)
Saints
Port (really who cares?)
Bombers (back dogs at price)
Cats
Good luck :cool:

[moeee]

Port Power by over 40 points.
A lot of who beats who comes down to playing styles or game plans if you want to call it that.
To get a winning score you need to get the ball.I don't think Adelaide will get the ball enough to trouble the Power this time.

[rabbitz]

Pies $1.72
Carlton $2
Lions $1.07
Kangas $6.85 (under the odds)
Richmond $3,50
Sydney $1.25
West Coast $1.30
Melbourne $3.20
St Kilda $1.11
Fremantle $5.50 (under the odds)
Adelaide $2.90
Port Power $1.35
Essendon $1.16
Western Bulldogs $4.50 (over the odds)
Geelong $1.20
Hawthorn $4
so a few easy ones there notably brisbane and cats and saints,that will put me back in the winners circle all up the three to win $1.42 (huge value)
cheers

[moeee]

$1.42,Big value?
You could back Port to win by 4 points or more and get that price!

[rabbitz]

moeee we are slow tonight,tongue firmly planted in sharapovian cheek
now i've just been doing the maths about the spoon position for hawks and tigers and it basically comes down to,if tigers want to avoid it they have to have a result along the lines of 47 points better than hawks,something like cats belting hawthorn by 75-80 points and tigers staying within 4 goals of sydney would do it.could be hard for them,so baloo gets he choccies
cheers

[Floydyboy]

Im with you Boxhead D's to bounce back

[mug punta]

Just curious where the confidence on the Dee's is coming from. Enlighten me, because I can't see it.

[moeee]

My rated selections

Collingwood 15
Sydney 28
West Coast 10
Brisbane 38
St.Kilda 35
Port Adelaide 20
Essendon 33
Geelong 53

[sportznut]

My Ratings:

Collingwood by 6
Sydney by 26
West Coast by 20
Brisbane by 41
St Kilda by 35
Port Adel by 28
Essendon by 27
Geelong by 46


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-24 12:08 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

my guts says theyve played good footy most of the year theyve lost a few in a row and theyre due for a win ..... but then again I was wrong about Geelong last week ....the difference being I think ill be backing the D's

[moeee]

And you were wrong about the Dees last week!
There is another trap we all fall into,over and over again.
Due for a win.
If a horse runs last,last,last is it now due for a win?.Probably closer to last.
If the wheel comes up red,red,red,is black due for a win.Still 50%.
What is the actual logic that says Melbourne have a chance?
Take off your belt Floydyboy.I think your guts are trying to tell you Melbourne need it more after the belting they're gonna cop next week.

[Floydyboy]

yes I certainly was but I never had my money on cos my guts or lack of it told me to pocket fridays winnings and get out Ill stick with em just the same and barring drastic team changes ill probably drop a lazy fifty on em and see what happens

[mug punta]

Have to agree with Mo on that one.
I actually rated the Dees highly but they have lost confidence and aren't playing with any flair or system at the moment.
I reckon Perth isn't the place that you suddenly find your form.
I hope all punters are laying the Power for the flag. They are NO GOOD!! They play precise, pretty boy footy and just imagine what the Lions will do to them if they somehow got to the GF. They are 16th in the comp in Hardball gets and 15th in loose ball gets. If Choco reckons they have changed their style of play he is kiddibg himself.
Im going to couple Bris in GF quinellas with Saints, they hopefully wont meet again after the 1st final till the GF with smaller savers on the Lions with Cats, Swans and Eagles.

[moeee]

Tell you something Mug Punta.
I stuffed up with my advice on The Western Bulldogs last week.
But I was spot on with another couple of predictions so I feel OK to say this.
Port Power has played quite well against Brisbane over the last four years and their style can knock off the Lions again.
A smidgeon more from Chad Cornes and the they won't be meeting the Lions at the Gabba this time either.
Compare the current prices and surely the Power are much better value than the Lions at the minute.Especially after they belt Adelaide next week.

[sportznut]

On 2004-08-24 15:04, mug punta wrote:
They are 16th in the comp in Hardball gets

Why not just say LAST??? :smile:

A bit like the Olympics when one of the Aussies is coming last and the commentators say they are coming eighth.

[mug punta]

Sorry Sportz, we are very Americanised arent we!!
Mo, You say a lot of smart things and I reckon you are a pretty good judge, but, you will have to learn the hard way.
They are NO GOOD!!
$3.85 is way unders!!!
All credit to 'em for where they have finished after terrible injuries to key onballers.
The big overs are the swans and eagles.
Probly the two form teams of the comp over the last 4-6 weeks.
Remember the Eagles last loss was against Port at AAMI amd they had something like 10-12 more scoring shots.
I may be proven wrong in the final analysis, who knows but im prepared to back myself and when I make big calls like this one I know Im right more often than im wrong.

[sportznut]

Mug Punta, it looks like they're going to win their 3rd straight minor premiership and that doesn't happen if you're 'NO GOOD'. Now, whether they can handle the pressure in the finals or they choke yet again, that's another matter entirely.

[mug punta]

You guys are all totally missing my point and getting caught up in semantics.
Finals football determines if you are any good.
Freo were fantastic last year not losing once at home untill my Bombers led by Hirdy showeed them what big time footy is about.
If you watch Port's style they play easy uncontested cheating footy, but footy in Sept is man on man, hard contests all over the ground and thats why they've bombed oput the last two series. It's not because they choked, it's because their style of footy falls apart under intense pressure, but, if you all reckon the $3.85 for the flag is great value, jump in.
Like I said earlier I could be wrong, but, as the bare minimum know this. They have hardly changed their style that saw them crash out of the last two finals series so why are they suddenly going to come good in September this time?

[moeee]

Consider this Mug Punta.
A 4 year old kid catches a tadpole and puts it in a bucket.2 days later he goes to check his tadpole and it's become a frog.
In the child's mind,confusion reigns.
Last year was last year and the year before that was the year before that.
Port will be playing Geelong,so there's a win.
And then the weeks break which is the key to most premierships.
The only stumbling block is Brisbane at the MCG.
If they take a leaf out of Paul Roos book,they can get away with a Cup.And an overdue one for all the quality wins they put in over the years.
Effort is rewarded eventually.
Having said that,Go the SAINTS!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-08-26 08:21 ]</font>

[mug punta]

My gf is always telling me im a child so the analogy is pretty apropriate really.
Maybe the Power have grown from men to boys but I doubt it and don't write the Catters off mate. They will have a redhot crack at the Power and if they get over the line then all those other teams current odds are going to look like huge overs.

P.S tredrea just came last in the 1st race at Victoria park, mmmmm, not a good omen

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mug punta on 2004-08-25 12:14 ]</font>

[goldmember]

COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON

From the last 7 games, all at the m.c.g collingwood have won 4 carlton 3. This year at the m.c.g the pies have won 3/10 and the blues 2/5.

last4 H2H:
R18 2002 COLLINGWOOD 141-33 @ M.C.G
R 2 2003 COLLINGWOOD 107-91 @ M.C.G
R17 2003 COLLINGWOOD 135-62 @ M.C.G
R 7 2004 CARLTON 89-80 @ M.C.G.

RICHMOND v SWANS

The tigers and swans have 3 wins each from the last 6 games,this year richmond have won 2/9 at the m.c.g while the swans have won 2/4 in melbourne,losing their only game at the m.c.g to essendon 108-98.

last 4 H2H:
R 7 2002 RICHMOND 88-82 @ TELSTRA DOME
R22 2002 SWANS 116-76 @ TELSTRA STADIUM
R10 2003 SWANS 104-72 @ M.C.G
R 7 2004 RICHMOND 67-54 @ S.C.G

WEST COAST v MELBOURNE

Melb have won 5 of the last 8 clashes, with the eagles winning 11/16 in the west [7/12 subiaco,4/4 waca]this year at subiaco the eagles have won 9/11 while the demons have won 2/5 interstate[swans,fremantle]

last 4 H2H:
R19 2002 MELBOURNE 106-100 @ SUBIACO
R 6 2003 W/COAST 127-94 @ M.C.G
R21 2003 W/COAST 143-91 @ SUBIACO
R 7 2004 MELBOURNE 122-73 @ M.C.G

BRIS LIONS v KANGAROOS

From 13 games between them, they both have 6 wins each +_1 draw, with the lions winning 4/5 at the gabba with a winning margin of 39 pts. The kangaroos have not bearten the lions in the last 6 encounters ,since r14 2000, by 4 pts. At home this year the lions have won 10/11 while the kangaroos have won 3/5 interstate.

lkast 4 H2H:
R12 2002 LIONS 138-123 @ GABBA
R 3 2003 DRAW 109-109 @ TELSTRA DOME
R18 2003 LIONS 137-83 @ GABBA
R 7 2004 LIONS 120-76 @ TELSTRA DOME

ST KILDA v FREMANTLE

The saints have won 5/12 against the dockers, but only 3 have been played in melbourne with the saints winning 2 of them and this is the 1st game at telstra dome between them.This year at the dome the saints have won 12/12 while the dockers have won 5/9 interstate.

last 4 H2H:
R 2 2002 FREMANTLE 76-73 @ SUBIACO
R17 2002 ST KILDA 118-79 @ OPTUS OVAL
R 8 2003 FREMANTLE 123-82 @ SUBIACO
R 7 2004 ST KLIDA 95-72 @ SUBIACO

ADELAIDE v PORT ADELAIDE

The crows have won 5/15 against port,only winning 1 of their last 8 against them.At AAMI this year the crows have won 6/11 while the power have won 10/11.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 PORT 84-76 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 5 2003 PORT 78-66 @ AAMI STADIUM
R22 2003 PORT 94-78 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 7 2004 ADEL 119-87 @ AAMI STADIUM

ESSENDON v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Essendon have 5 wins + 1 draw from their last 6 against the bulldogs, while in the 7 games played at telstra dome the bulldogs have 1 win + 1 draw aginst them. At telstra dome this year the bombers have won 4/9 while the dogs have won 1/8.

last 4 H2H:
R14 2002 DRAW 118-118 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 4 2003 ESSENDON 129-110 @ TELSTRA DOME
R19 2003 ESSENDON 147-80 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 7 2004 ESSENDON 121-95 @ TELSTRA DOME

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

The cats have won 3 of the last 10 clashes, but they havent met at skilled stadium since 1999, which the hawks won 100-98. at home this year the cats have won 7/7 while hawthorn have won only 2 of their last 13 games.

last 4 H2H:
R 7 2002 HAWTHORN 130-78 @ M.C.G
R22 2002 HAWTHORN 75-57 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 9 2003 GEELONG 109-75 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 7 2004 GEELONG 108-52 @ TELSTRA DOME



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-25 15:07 ]</font>

[goldmember]

CARLTON by 12
SWANS by 40
WEST COAST by 38
BRIS LIONS by 60
ST KILDA by 42
PORT ADEL by 40
ESSENDON by 20
GEELONG by 40

[moeee]

On 2004-08-25 11:49, mug punta wrote:

My gf is always telling me im a child so the analogy is pretty apropriate really.
Maybe the Power have grown from men to boys but I doubt it and don't write the Catters off mate. They will have a redhot crack at the Power and if they get over the line then all those other teams current odds are going to look like huge overs.



gf as in grandfather or gut feeling?

After analyzing each game,Geelong this week by over 50 points.
After that I wish you good luck Mug Punta.

[goldmember]

Moeee when you had your home ground advantages posted for this round, is that a basic advantage or is it just for this round and depends on the opposition

[moeee]

Round 22 advantages are only for the specific Round.
For example I gave the Lions an 11 point bonus last week against St.Kilda.Against the Kangaroos it's 14.
Thought that the Saints could rise to the challenge somewhat better than the Roos.
If the series develops as expected,then the Saints go back to the Gabba for Week 1.
Perhaps would increase the advantage from 11,which wasn't enough,to 14 plus another 6 for it being a home final,makes it a massive 20 point advantage.
Welcome back to Earth,Sainters.

[Floydyboy]

I see Neitz wont be playing for the D's this week ....hes kicked 30 more goals than any of his team mates and that works out about twice as many....................that says to me Its going to be critical to them so im not so confident now.
:???:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-08-26 20:36 ]</font>

[mug punta]

Gday Mo. GF as in girlfriend.
Cmon now, admit im swaying you on the Power. You know their cats.
Id much rather be on the Saints at 6's then Port at 11-4.

[sportznut]

MP, if you're right, Mo will be a very happy man, because he stands to win a substantil amount if the Saints get up.

[mug punta]

Gday Sportz. I just reckon it's all about trying to find value. The Lions look like locks regardless of what anyone else does.
I hope the Eagles and Swans can get on a September roll because they are massive odds and I can always lay off if one of them makes it.
My 30-1 for the Judd(Brownlow), Gehrig(coleman) and Lions (flag) is looking like it has a chance of lobbing.
Im thinking of taking some afl/nrl flag doubles.
I don't know a lot about the NRL but the doggies and roosters look the 2 most likely teams to me. Any of the other sides got a hope in your opinion?

[sportznut]

I really think they are the two best sides and I find it hard to see anyone beating them. I think Brisbane are over-rated, while St George, Melbourne and Penrith all have the talent but seem too inconsistent. The other 2 teams in the finals will probably just be making up the numbers.

[gum stumpa]

CARLTON by 14
SWANS by 44
WEST COAST by 35
BRIS LIONS by 50
ST KILDA by 44
PORT ADEL by 12
ESSENDON by 25
GEELONG by 30

[Mr J]

Well for Saturday:

Sydney by 24
West Coast by 65
Brisbane by 48
St Kilda by 50

My bets are:
WC -27.5
St Kilda -38.5

Getting to stay away from Richmond is a win in the books.

[moeee]

Must feel very awkward though Mr J.
You go through whatever it is you do and find Richmond at great value.And then keep out because it's Richmond.
Is it because you have been burnt more often?
Don't you say to yourself,"Well they must be overdue to return some of my investment?"

Discipline and Willpower would have to be the most important rules in any punting system.And a Staking method.The way we come up with selections is probably way down the list.
Wish I could swallow that with conviction.I'd probably win a few bucks.

[Mr J]

I think I'm 2-5 when backing Richmond. Last one was a win. Never stayed away just because it is Richmond. I'm staying away from this game simply because my model doesn't see value. If it saw value in Richmond it'd (unfortunately) be a bet.

[Mr J]

Saints letting me down...

Anyway, just Geelong -27.5 for me today.

[mug punta]

I took a multi bet and if the bombers get the chokkies ill have a nice collect for the round.
P.S go judd, and lloydy kick up to 6 sausages.
p.p.s Iv'e loved these olympics. 7 bets for 5 collects

[blackpantha]

I had the following bet to win $6500 :sad:
How close.....

Geelong v Hawthorn
Line – Geelong -27.5 @ 1.90

Richmond v Sydney
Line – Sydney -24.5 @ 1.90

St Kilda v Fremantle
Line – St Kilda -38.5 @ 1.90

West Coast v Melbourne
Line – West Coast -28.5 @ 1.90

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: blackpantha on 2004-08-29 16:20 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: blackpantha on 2004-08-29 16:21 ]</font>

[moeee]

And I jump up and down when I lose $2.

$500 on a 12-1 shot.
SHIT!.
How much do you invest when you really like something.

[Mr J]

I like your bets, I had 3/4 of them :wink:

Hope you had them in singles since 3/4 paid off.

[moeee]

On 2004-08-29 17:47, Mr J wrote:
I like your bets, I had 3/4 of them :wink:

Hope you had them in singles since 3/4 paid off.


But can you see that if he divided his $500 into four $125 bets at $1.90,he gets back $712.50 for a profit of $212.50 compared to his almost $6000.
Yes Mr J,slow and steady wins the race,but gee it's boring.

[mug punta]

I tend to agree Mo, but, remember you and I do this mostly for fun. Others do it as a means of their income.

[moeee]

Like who?

[blackpantha]

haha nah it was a one off that almost paid for me if saints had won by 8 more points :cry:

I started with $100 and I built up through
small wins and I decided to take a punt...
aka this is not my living :smile: