NRL FINALS Week 1

[rabbitz]

Penrith $1.70
St George $2.10
Broncos $1.55 -4.5=$1.90
Storm $2.40 +4.5=$1.90
Bulldogs $1.16 -14.5=$1.90
Cowboys $5.50 +14.5=$1.90
Roosters $1.10 -18.5=$1.90
Canberra $6.50 +18.5=$1.90
Looks like a licence to print money Bulldogs
Roosters Roll your Own start double
I think you could probably go -11.5 for both all up,Dont know what the dividend would be yet but you would probably be pretty safe
I took them last weekend Roosters 13+ and Bulldogs -9.5 and that turned out to pretty conservative considering one of my other multis had Roosters at -29.5,but one of the other legs let me down
Cheers

[goldmember]

Think those dreaded dragons should win,yesterday reports that T.Pulatula is out and J.Galuvao WILL be ruled out and R.Wesser is in doubt, and with J.Ryles and L.Bailey back for the dragons , rated the DRAGONS $1.70 and the PANTHERS $2.15, the dragons will step up and be too good for panthers.

SAINTS 1-12 $3.50
or
SAINTS 13+ $4.25

BRONCOS too good for STORM
$1.60 win [rated $1.45]

BULLDOGS 13+ $1.72

With R.Wiki,L Davico,S.Woolford out,
ROOSTERS 13+ $1.43

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-08 17:36 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-08 17:37 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

GM Ive got Penrith -3.5 @ $3.50 so I hope your wrong about St George
Cheers
P.S.How, What, Where?

[goldmember]

Rabbs, i dont like the dragons, hated them since 1975 when we flogged them 35-0, but looking at the game i can see them putting in now that the big games are here and this is one time i hope i'm wrong, but i dont think so.

[rabbitz]

38-0
19-4 year before over canterbury
Yeah I know I,m a smarty

[sportznut]

What a pity the NRL still hasn't followed the AFL in changing this finals system. Teams 7 and 8 almost always get knocked out straight away by teams 1 and 2 who go straight through to the prelim finals. The AFL used to use this system but ditched it for their current one which is FAR better. The Cowboys have been celebrating reaching the finals for the first time but they've got almost no chance of making it to week 2.

For what it's worth:
Penrith by 4
Brisbane by 2
Bulldogs by 18
Roosters by 20


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-08 21:24 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

gotta disagree with you there sports Its a money making excercise (8 team final series )which is fair enough even though I dont believe in it . but if you run eighth I really dont believe you deserve a crack at the title 4,5 or 6 max for me

[maverick1993]

The storm look great value to me..will be having a stack on them.
Roosters will walk in ..The Dogs - cowboys game will be a struggle for awhile but then Canterbury will be to strong in the end.
St George seem to grow an extra leg around this time and will beat Penrith.

Storm 1-12
Bulldogs 1-12
Roosters 13+

Ok i'm happy with that and the 4.5 start for Melbourne :smile:




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: maverick1993 on 2004-09-09 19:29 ]</font>

[moeee]

Gee this Maverick sure does talk the talk.
Anyone know whether he can walk the walk?

[rabbitz]

Hes good on the ponies thats for sure
I dont know about Afl?nrl?
Took a double
Hungary to beat iceland into Penrith -3.5
Dividend $3.50
Hungary 3 Iceland 2
cheers

[goldmember]

STGEORGE have firmed from $2.15 to $1.95, i wonder if that bloke is chasing his $400,000 he lost on them in 2 weeks ?

[moeee]

So what sport are Hungary so much better than our Reyjakavik cousins?

[goldmember]

H2H, panthers & dragons $2 each on SportsAcumen

[maverick1993]

:smile: I'm full of it really..
I played footy for most of my life so i think i'm an expert.
My only bet aside from a few footy tab bets is a Grand Final double Afl/Nrl
Sydney and Melbourne i put that on a while ago and am not terribly confident.
I do think that Melbourne will beat the Broncos they've been too slack in defence lately..But i know Melbourne rely alot on Scott Hill who i think is a very underated player..'
Will go Melbourne straight out and have a few multis with the other games.
I'm new at this so any advice is welcome.

[goldmember]

Mav, think bris should beat melb this week,as melb's defence leaks a lot of points,but anything can happen on the night, but as far as the premiership goes they are 200/1 to win it,defence wins Grand Finals and the roosters and bulldogs have by far and away the best defences and the others play touch footy, lions/port/swans, take your pick but theres not much value in the doubles now.

[moeee]

On 2004-09-09 10:44, maverick1993 wrote:
The storm look great value to me..will be having a stack on them.
Roosters will walk in ..The Dogs - cowboys game will be a struggle for awhile but then Canterbury will be to strong in the end.
St George seem to grow an extra leg around this time and will beat Penrith.
Penrith -12
Dogs -12
Roosters +12
Melbourne -12


The story bit I read and I think I can understand it.But those team names with the mathematical symbols next to them.What do they mean?
And which one is Canterbury and who are represented by the dogs?

[goldmember]

canterbury are the BULLdogs and the points have me a bit puzzled too

[maverick1993]

oops sorry ..have edited my previous post.

[goldmember]

thats better , but you said stgeorge will beat the panthers and you tipped panthers 1-12 ?

[maverick1993]

yep..fixed that...how come Ias only have the 3 games on the board.

[goldmember]

Deleted the wrong game i suppose

[goldmember]

Moeee, i'm not annoyed, every body in league has a team to hate, its a past time, and i've followed the roosters since 1973 and we beat the dragons 38-0 in 1975 and i was a bookie in high school adnd took heaps of 50c bets because every one was on the dragons and i cleaned up, they were the "glamour team".

PENRITH is the PANTHERS and they finished 4th and the DRAGONS finished 5th, but the dragons won both games during the season 44-18 at home and 28-8 at the panthers home ground,and the panthers have 2 players out injured and 2 in doubt. I tipped the dragons before and now the money has come for them and they are at full strength, whats the old saying "GO WITH THE STRENGTH"

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-09 20:02 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-09 20:03 ]</font>

[goldmember]

When betting opened on tuesday at sportstab, the panthers were $1.70 and the dragons $2.15, now they are both at $1.85 each, thats a plunge!

[moeee]

Someones been deleting my posts!
Is it you Goldmember.
You wait!
Is it you Rabbitz.
You wait!
I just wonder who it was?
Anyway I don't care too much.There are a lot of jealous people in the world.

[rarebitz]

On 2004-09-09 21:49, moeee wrote:
Someones been deleting my posts!
Is it you Goldmember.
You wait!
Is it you Rabbitz.
You wait!
I just wonder who it was?
Anyway I don't care too much.There are a lot of jealous people in the world.


Wasn't me.
Anyway, what's this got to do with gambling?

[moeee]

Well thank you,Goldmember,for the reply to the questions that I posed but some clever dick decided to delete.
I don't want to go against your logic so I'm staying out of the penrith game.
And by the way everybody!.That Maverick is a gun.
When he says jump now,it'd be in your interests to heed his advice.
This'll do me.
Bulldogs s/o
Storm s/o
Roosters -3 points
All-up

P.s.That Maverick was shocking at his one and only venture into harness tipping.Hope it's not a case of Dejavu in NFL(or whatever it's called) rearing its head to bite me on the bum.
Might make it a small bet,to be safe.

[maverick1993]

For the dragons to firm in so much is that like someone plonking a few hunded thousand on ?..has there been any injury anouncements ?hmmm or there could be soon.
makes me feel safer about backing them now :smile:

[mug punta]

Looks a good weekend of NRL punting.
I like Penrith because I think they are just off the best 2 teams. It is worrying though the avalanche of money for st.george.
My agent has them $1.72 after you could procure $2.20 on wed.
Roosters and Bulldogs should smash their opposition and ive backed those 3 teams straight out and at their respective lines.
Not touching the Broncos-Storm game. Both sides are just ok and I'll stay out.

[goldmember]

Mav, on tuesday it was announced that T. Pulatula was out and J.Galuvao and R.Wesser were in grave doubt, then F.Pritchard came out and officially Galuvao came out with L.Lewis,Wesser will play.

Missing forwards from their Grand Final team:

S.Sattler - w/tigers
T. Pulatula - injured
J.Galuvao - injured
L.Swain - injured
B.Ross - suspended

They look a bit thin up front and the saints have 2 australian forwards back in their side J.Ryles and L.Bailey and theres a tip that M.Gasnier could come back in,therefore their strongest team of the year.

[goldmember]

I didnt know that someone else could delete your own posts,that seems odd,wasnt me, and i dont know why anyone would want to do something like that,seems CHILDISH !

[goldmember]

Tthis morning on radio G.Munsie of sportstab said there has been $200,00 on the dragons to win +hcp and about $10,000 on the panthers, and around $300,000 on the roosters to win + hcp.

[goldmember]

Rumour is that S.Kearney and K.Reynoldson are in extreme doubt for the storm against the broncos on saturday night, and if thats the case then the storm might as well go to Albion Park trots or the casino instead of facing the broncos,who have D.Lockyer,S.Berrigan and T.Carroll back in their side,also theres a whisper that G.Toupo [scored 2 trys on debut against the panthers]could replace S.Minto, looks more like a puff of wind than a storm ?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-10 10:09 ]</font>

[goldmember]

M P,only a few options this week:

BULLDOGS TRY $1.72
ROOSTERS TRY $1.60

STGEORGE WIN $1.85
BRONCOS WIN $1.60
ROOSTERS 13+ $1.40
BULLDOGS 13+ $1.70

STGEORGE/PANTHERS over 47.5 pts $1.85
BULLDOGS/COWBOYS over 48.5 pts $1.85

A.MINICHIELLO most trys[c.schifcofske]$2.40
M.UTAI most trys [m.sing] $2.60
B.SLATER most trys [k.hunt] $3.40

[mug punta]

Thanks GM. I will back both the overs in those games and the first try options.

[Floydyboy]

be some heavy fondling of the worry beads out there from the big hitters

[rabbitz]

Now you would think being 24-0 up that -3.5 looked pretty safe,but no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pretty poor defence from both sides
Penrith got the bikkies,Rabbitz got egg on his face
Oh no not EGGS
One multi left Essendon -8.5
Roosters 13+
Now there has been a bit of talk about the Cats putting their hands up,we shall see
Go the bumblers
Cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: rabbitz on 2004-09-11 06:33 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Had two bets last night. As well as my standard system bet on St Kilda with the start (why were Sydney favourites in Melbourne?), I took a small double on Penrith/St Kilda. After about 15 minutes of the League, I thought I had one half of the double wrapped up.

Now, here's the big problem with this ridiculous NRL finals system. Such a brilliant, exciting game of Football last night and it basically means NOTHING! If as expected the Roosters and Bulldogs both win their matches, then there was no real advantage in Penrith winning last night. And unless 2 teams out of Melbourne, NQld and Canberra can win, then there was no disadvantage in St George losing either!

[moeee]

Rabbitz,you dissappointed me.
Was sure you had something on St.Kilda after your write up.Now get in there and put $5 on the Cats to win by over 19 points.
If it loses I'll chuck $5 on your nominated selection.

Sportz.Sydney won by 6 last week,and St.Kilda lost by 14.Many people go by last start form,and that is where the money is to be made.
P.S. Have you been to bed?

[sportznut]

Yeah, got about 4 hours.

When you look at their last start form, Sydney were playing West Coast at home and the Saints were playing Brisbane away. Very different propositions. I thought on overall form throughout the year and on the playing talent on the field, St Kilda should have been the favs. I guess some people jumped off them because it wasn't at the Dome too, but I still thought they'd be much more at home than the Swans.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-11 10:02 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Didnt back any teams last night, only bet was saints/panthers game over 47.5 pts, thought there would be around 60 pts scored and took the easy option, sat back and watched all the trys being scored, $1.85 is better than going for one side.

[Mr J]

Well I would've been on the saints to cover, but also on penrith (a loss). What was the start, -2, -2.5?

[sportznut]

Well, it was St George (+2.5) when they opened, but those bookies that alter their lines would probably have had St George as favourite by kickoff time.

[mug punta]

Good work GM, with the over 47+ total points. Hope you didnt end up backing swans total marks. They got pounded. I can't believe how negatively they played.
It was as if they realised they had no hope and tried to not get smashed by to much.
Well picked MO. Hope ur wrong about the cats though

[moeee]

Thank you Mug Punta.You're never short on congratulations.
You asked me why I was so optimistic about the Saints.
Well like I said many times before.This Gut Factor thing just can't be defined.But you can feel it when it's there.
One strange phenomenom about it,is if you go overboard in your cockiness,then you are not experiencing the Gut Factor but actually the Ego Factor.
Anyway,suggest you tread warily tonight,Mugsy.
Brought a brand new belt last week.Me guts are almost at bursting point.

[mug punta]

Yeah, I thought last week you had that minor air of cockiness and that actually made me more confident because it's the surest wat to come acropper.
I wont even be betting 2nite. It's 2 hard to pick and im just hoping we win without any extra stress and ive got some nice nrl trebles going.

[moeee]

So what's happening?
Storm do any good?
Roosters,Bulldogs?
Fill me in northerners.

[maverick1993]

The Storm were fantastic !! Scott Hill ws magical a great win.
Couldn't beleive the Cowboys could win Unbeleivable. My Margin bet was gone thanks to Penrith so i didn't mind seeing the Boys from the North win.
Sherwin was no doubt carrying an injury and with Anasta injured the Centres hardly saw the ball.
If Canberrra flukes a win does that mean the Broncos are gone ?

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-11 07:03, sportznut wrote:
Now, here's the big problem with this ridiculous NRL finals system. Such a brilliant, exciting game of Football last night and it basically means NOTHING! If as expected the Roosters and Bulldogs both win their matches, then there was no real advantage in Penrith winning last night. And unless 2 teams out of Melbourne, NQld and Canberra can win, then there was no disadvantage in St George losing either!


Well, what was it I said once about looking like a goose??? Fair dinkum, I couldn't have been more wrong! With tonight's results, that one point win for Penrith last night WAS a big advantage for Penrith because they go to the prelim final and certainly a HUGE disadvantage to St George, because they're GONE!

I thought Nth Qld would play well, but I didn't believe they could win. Go Cowboys!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-12 01:30 ]</font>

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-11 23:33, maverick1993 wrote:
If Canberrra flukes a win does that mean the Broncos are gone ?


Yep!

[maverick1993]

who plays who next week Sportz ?

Great win by the storm...notice when the halfback fires the team usually does..
Brisbane dont have one and sherwin 2nd best in the game behind Gower was carrying an injury..
Wasn't Lockyer outstanding..

[moeee]

It seems the Bulldogs lost.
Could some one tell me did the Roosters win by more than 4 points or more than 12 points?

[mug punta]

I dont know the score but they must have won by more than 12 because I backed them 13+ and collected.

[sportznut]

Roosters won by 26 and go straight through to Prelim final week along with Penrith. Next week it's Bulldogs vs Melbourne for the right to play Penrith and it's N.Qld vs Brisbane for the right to play the Roosters. It looks like that second game may be shifted to Townsville, because it would be pretty silly to play it in Sydney.

The Roosters will have shortened a lot in premiership betting because they've definitely got the easier run from here. This year I backed two quinellas, Roosters/Panthers and Roosters/Bulldogs and I think Melbourne now might be the only spanner in the works there.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-13 06:45 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

Sport odds have now got ROOSTERS $2
and BULLDOGS $4.50 to win premiership
$4.50 bloody hell you were lucky to get $2.90 a week ago
Cheers

[morrissey]

jesus, i hope some of you aussie punters are wasting yr time and cash on betfair... now i know where all my weekend money has come from..:smile: i think most of you got one tip right all weekend on the outrights and handicaps... the roosters.. well done gents...

just to make you feel better i had one 'back' in nrl on the weeknd, and brisbane let me down for a acca of penrith (h2h), cowboys (hcp), bris (bcp) and roosters hcp for $200... but it was a free bet after all... i love these early finals games..

[goldmember]

Was out sat& sun and taped the games and couldnt believe the dogs got rolled, they completely stuffed 2 of my accounts up, with all my multis finishing with roosters and the bulldogs,cant make my mind up if the dogs are MONGRELS or CATS, i'll be cheering on the storm next week to knock them out and give me some revenge.

[goldmember]

M P didnt have a bet on the AFL on the weekend, wouldnt have made a difference to me anyway, i tipped 1/6 on the games this week

[mug punta]

Yeah it was a bloody hard weekend.
Firstly Roddick, got rolled to hurt me. Didnt pick either of the footy winners in afl, and then my bigest bet, a treble, gets knocked out when the bulldogs forget to turn up for week 1 of the finals.
Reckon the bookies are smiling after the weekend

[goldmember]

Sportstab said they wanted to stgeorge to play every week, and at all sports,thats their bread and butter team, if anything good came out of the weekend its the dragons being booted out,there the only team i hate in the NRL so it wasnt a total loss

[moeee]

On 2004-09-13 10:08, morrissey wrote:

just to make you feel better i had one 'back' in nrl on the weeknd, and brisbane let me down for a acca of penrith (h2h), cowboys (hcp), bris (bcp) and roosters hcp for $200... but it was a free bet after all... i love these early finals games..


Could someone please translate this for me.

[maverick1993]

On 2004-09-13 10:08, morrissey wrote:
jesus, i hope some of you aussie punters are wasting yr time and cash on betfair... now i know where all my weekend money has come from..:smile: i think most of you got one tip right all weekend on the outrights and handicaps... the roosters.. well done gents...

just to make you feel better i had one 'back' in nrl on the weeknd, and brisbane let me down for a acca of penrith (h2h), cowboys (hcp), bris (bcp) and roosters hcp for $200... but it was a free bet after all... i love these early finals games..


got me stuffed also..
But hey in my first bet on Sports i broke even thanks to the Storm..

Hey Goldmember dont feel bad about saying the storm was what "A Puff Of Wind" ??
In the horse racing forum i said Besame Mucho was not going to win and it strolled in ,,signing autographs along the grandstand side along the way. :smile:

[morrissey]

yup maverick, i will learn one day that you can win all you like on single match betting.. but when you put the accas down (for the uninitiated an 'acca' is the same as an aussie all up bet) no matter what the price, one of your favourites will always let you down.

That or backing on horses will kill my betting bank.

ps: do any of you back on betfair? or chat on the forums there. just wondering?