AFL PREMIERSHIP

[mug punta]

I would like to see others predictions for this years GF. Their predicted margins,Norm Smith medallist and leading goal kicker

My tips are
Brisbane by 52 points
Lappin to win Norm Smith
Lynch to kick 6 goals.
Cheers

[Rock Steady]

If the weather is fine,
Brisbane by 60+
Black for Norm Smith
I like the option on Unitab at $44.00 with Port Adelaide <61 and Brisbane >120.

Brisbane's gang tackling will be too much for Port to handle. Away from Adelaide, Port's record against Top 8 sides is disgraceful.

[sportznut]

I'm not sure where you guys get all this incredible confidence in the Lions. I really hope you're right with those margins but I just can't see it!!!

[maverick1993]

I agree sporty ....the port know exactly what to expect ..i'm thinking a pretty tight game...i'm tipping Aka for a big game..

[Rock Steady]

The confidence comes from the fact that Port are known "chokers", the Lions are a Champion team (maybe the greatest ever) and Port's disgraceful record away from AAMI Stadium. Did you see the way Port carried on after falling over the line against St Kilda? - That was Port's Grand Final!

[mug punta]

Well Done Rocksteady, finally someone on this forum who's talking my language.
They have that many softies in the middle.
BRISBANE will strangle them in the guts and Im sure Brown is paranoid and scared out of his mind about playing on BISHOP.What a star he is.
Aker only had one forward 50 entry last week. He averages 9 every game. Enough said.
Get on em by PLENTY!!

[goldmember]

Dont know what you guys ? or girls are on i originally tipped the lions by 7, but i'm changing my mind.

PORT by 6 [ 97-91 ]
S.Burgoyne to win Norm Smith
Treadrea to kick 5,Akermanis 4

[mug punta]

No offfence GM, but, if Burgoyne.S wins the Norm Smith i'll have seen it all

[goldmember]

Mugs, i like to shy away from the fav's sometimes and i looked up their last few clashes and he has kicked a few against them,it was a roughie pick,before i changed my mind, i did tip Luke Power.

[rabbitz]

On 2004-09-24 06:45, goldmember wrote:
Dont know what you guys ? or girls are on i originally tipped the lions by 7, but i'm changing my mind.

PORT by 6 [ 97-91 ]
S.Burgoyne to win Norm Smith
Treadrea to kick 5,Akermanis 4

What about Shaun hart,he'll get more votes than S.burgoyne turning up in that red dress covered in bandages,doesnt even have to play

[Rock Steady]

I note that the $44.00 option on Unitab of Port<61 and Lions >120 is now into $18.00.
I have loaded all bases by also taking the Lions (-12.5) at $1.90, Lions 39+ at $3.85.

Lade looks like his back is no good - that will not help Port's chances either.

[Mr J]

The confidence comes from the fact that Port are known "chokers", the Lions are a Champion team (maybe the greatest ever)

I don't think you should let that influence your decision. This is the sort of opinion the public will have, and I can tell you that the bookies will shade it, meaning less value.

IMO, I doubt the lions will be the better bet here. Even if they win, that does not prove that they were where the value lies.

GL to whoever had all those port futures.

[goldmember]

UNDER/OVER 179.5 pts, would over be the better bet ?

[Church22]

You are all MUGS..

Lynch is on one leg so Bradshaw will have to take the load again.. which is a huge effort to weeks in a row.

I think Pickett for the norm smith .. his hard physical presence and runs of half back will be unstoppable.

I think port by 22points

Take the 2.55 on WA TAB

[mug punta]

Pickett is a dud. You'll agree by the end of today

[sportznut]

Yeah, what do you think now Mug Punta? Still reckon Port can't play? Well, I guess 3 in a row wasn't bad.

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-25 12:49, Church22 wrote:
Take the 2.55 on WA TAB


What about $2.10 for Port (+12.5). Great value that was.

[sportznut]

Well done Port. A well deserved victory. No gripes from this Lions supporter.

[moeee]

Oh my goodness gracious me!

BETTER THAN SEX

Congratulations Goldie - Commisserations Bigmouth.

And don't let that winning margin deceive anyone.
That was a great game of football.

Bring on 2005.

[Dr Pangloss]

mug punta prophesied,

"Pickett is a dud. You'll agree by the end of today"

"My tips are
Brisbane by 52 points
Lappin to win Norm Smith
Lynch to kick 6 goals"


Beautiful work. Tell me this oh wise one,

when dining out on a mountain of humble pie how do you wipe all that egg off your face?

Give us your answer in the Rugby finals thread whilst there's still time to lay your tips on BetFair.

[moeee]

Tread carefully good Doctor.

I'm close to being evicted for less disparaging remarks than that.
Truth is no excuse.

[sportznut]

Mo, remember when I said about people that make predictions on a forum like this and end up looking like a GOOSE??? Mug Punta's continual suggestions that Port were simply NO GOOD is a fair example of what I meant.

I always thought that today's match was a 50/50 game and although I was already assured of a handy profit no matter which team won, I just had to have a go at the $2.10 for Port (+12.5). That was incredible value. Who won the Norm Smith Medal?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-25 18:25 ]</font>

[blackpantha]

On 2004-09-25 18:22, sportznut wrote:
Who won the Norm Smith Medal?


Pickett

[sportznut]

Oh okay. Good one. He played well.

[maverick1993]

I knew it would be close ..but was hoping the Lions could sneak home...had a stack on Aka and it looked good early...

Well done Port...thouroughly deserved it :smile:

[rabbitz]

Well I've stuck me neck out and had it throroughly chopped off,but i reckon its good for the game,otherwise everyone would end up hating Brisbane and they'd become another collingwood.The most disappointing thing was picking Byron Pickett for norm smith and then not having a lousy $5 on him at $34
So what about lions for one in a row starting 2005,any takers
Hey Sportz what are those odds for next year with centrebet now I wonder
Cheers :cool:

[sportznut]

If Port Adelaide aren't short priced favourites, there's something wrong. In my mind, there was only one possible question mark over the Power and that was their supposed 'choking' in Finals, and surely they've put that to rest now.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-25 20:07 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Just had a look at Centrebet. Here it is:

PORT ADELAIDE 3.50
BRISBANE 3.75
ST KILDA 6.00
GEELONG 13.00
SYDNEY 13.00
COLLINGWOOD 17.00
ESSENDON 17.00
ADELAIDE 21.00
WEST COAST 21.00
MELBOURNE 26.00
HAWTHORN 34.00
FREMANTLE 51.00
RICHMOND 51.00
KANGAROOS 67.00
CARLTON 81.00
WESTERN BULLDOGS 81.00

[goldmember]

Bad luck to the lions missing out on 4,still a great acheivement,well done port on a great game. The lions had to carry the grandstand while port was on the limit,in the end the pull in the weights was too much,just couldnt believe some people were tipping a 50 and 60 + win , wonder if he's gone back under his ROCK ??.Church well done tipping Port by 22 and Pickett on the Norm Smith medal,genius!. I tipped the lions earlier in the week bu a couple of days later i had big gut feeling that port were going to do it and changed my mind and had a little something on them.

cheers

[Mr J]

Yep, congrats to me, sportz and the other guys who said port where the value :wink:

[mug punta]

WRONG,WRONG,WRONG and lost plenty but I can cop it sweet.
You can only call em as you see em and thats what I did.
Well done to Port, they were MUCH better than I rated them, thats for sure,
Just one last thing on the Norm Smith though, that would have to be the worst call ive ever seen. Pickett is nothing but a hangout. Wanganeen or P.Burgoyne would have been worthy winners.

[maverick1993]

i thought wanga deserved it also..

The good thing about winning 3 in a row is we can say "had to let them have 1 tittle" "but we will win the next 3" :smile: can't be to greedy now can we..

[Rock Steady]

I was very wrong on this game and also paid through my pocket. Lost $400 on the $44.00 option, lost $3000 on Lions (-12.5) at $1.90, lost $1200 on Lions 39+ at $3.85, lost $3000 on the Lions straight out at $1.57 and Won $2500 on Aka at $2.00 to beat S.Dew in Head to Head goals.
My opinion on this game cost me $5100 so a very big OUCH! That's OK though because it is just one game in a season and everyone backs losers.

[sportznut]

Can't work out what the hell you and Mug Punta were thinking. I'm a Lions fan and I NEVER thought Brisbane would win by 50 or 60 points. That was ridiculous!!!

I personally think that Brisbane are over-rated. Sure, they've been a great team and winning 3 in a row is a magnificent effort, but I never thought they were the invincible superteam that some other people seemed to think they were. Whenever I heard them called the 'greatest team ever', I cringed. After all, they've never managed to finish minor premiers yet and if not for Port's 'choking', it could possibly have been the Power with 3 in a row now.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-27 10:03 ]</font>

[maverick1993]

steady on there Sporty..

No doubt in anyones mind that this Brisbane side will go down in history as one of the best teams ever.

as for a 50-60 point win sometimes you get alittle carried away with emotion..

3 wins and a grandfinal in row...maybe could be regarded as one of the best sporting teams ever :wink:

[Rock Steady]

Sportz,
No problems mate. I had a very profitable year on the AFL so the GF result is not a big deal in the overall scheme of things.
Port got a bit of revenge on me for Round 8 at Telstra Dome against the Kangaroos.
I took Kangaroos at the Index of 22 points for a $100 bill and collected $11,400 when the Kangaroos won by 92. I've bet against Port on the "spread" for a good portion of the season and finished well in front.

[allanby]

I gotta say as a one eyed CARLTON SUPPORTER, i think we gotta remember this fact..

Back when Collingwood won the four in a row, there was only 8 teams in the VFL, so clearly Brisbane are the best team ever by a country mile in the AFL or VFL eras...with 16 teams in the comp, no one will ever get close to winning 3 in a row again in the AFL.

Well done to Port for winning the GF, eventhough i nearly kicked the TV set in caus i cannot stand their f****** of a coach, can't wait till someone wipes that smile of his face next year..even if it is the Lions again!

A.







<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: allanby on 2004-09-27 14:03 ]</font>

[goldmember]

I'd be getting on GEELONG and ST KILDA next year, as i said before the finals started,they needed this years experience and it showed they just lacked that little bit extra mental toughness, but they will be harder to beat next year!

[mug punta]

Brisbane are the best team ive seen and one loss doesnt change that.
What shocked me about the game was Port's hardness at the pill. That is easily the hardest ive ever seen them go in and I didnt think they were capable of playing that brand of footy against the might of Brisbane.
It's easy to say how could you tip Brisbane by 50 points after the event Sportz, but, remember in AFL grandfinals one team usually crack and the final margin tends to be a blowout.
What was most interesting was how a few of Brissie's older players were exposed ie Pike, the Scott's, White( although it was his first game for a month, Lynch.
I think ill be backing Saints, Cats and eagles for next years flag, but, unfortunately I have to admit if I can ever get $4 on Port i'll be having a saver on them.

[goldmember]

I think the B.Scott needs to be on angry pills, he flips his wig all the time,and Jonathon Brown [one of my favourite players]is turning into a thug!, will he be suspened,if so will he get up to 6 weeks as iv'e heard, or will they let it slide because it was a G/F.

[mug punta]

The punishments are worse in the GF.
We're very different to the NRL.
Expect him to cop 6

[goldmember]

That'll be the 4th time this year he fronts up to the panel,whats the record in one season for players to be charged

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-27 16:13, mug punta wrote:
It's easy to say how could you tip Brisbane by 50 points after the event Sportz, but, remember in AFL grandfinals one team usually crack and the final margin tends to be a blowout.


Yes, I know they are often blowouts, but there's a difference between acknowledging that may happen and actually stating that it will. I personally thought it was a genuine 50/50 match and it would be a 1-12 point margin for either side, but I did realise that there was always the possibilty of a blowout in the Grand Final. I mean nobody really thinks Port are a 40 point better side than Brisbane.

[Church22]

MUG - You have made things worst now by saying Pickett didnt deserve the Norm Smith !! Did you watch the game...Or were you Crying over your shameful display IF you can kick 3 goals from the half back flank... have 2 runs with 5 bounces from the back pocket.... and get a lazy 20 possesions and 8 tackles....!!! I think you are worthy of the NORM Smith.... You might want to look at the stats in the paper and find that he was 3 overall for poassesions in the day.

Do you really even watch or know anything about football?? that is my question to you!!

May God Be With YOU
CHURCH22

[mug punta]

On 2004-09-28 00:18, Church22 wrote:
MUG - You have made things worst now by saying Pickett didnt deserve the Norm Smith !! Did you watch the game...Or were you Crying over your shameful display IF you can kick 3 goals from the half back flank... have 2 runs with 5 bounces from the back pocket.... and get a lazy 20 possesions and 8 tackles....!!! I think you are worthy of the NORM Smith.... You might want to look at the stats in the paper and find that he was 3 overall for poassesions in the day.

Do you really even watch or know anything about football?? that is my question to you!!

May God Be With YOU
CHURCH22


Thanks for your friendly advice GODBOY!!
I probly did underestimate Picketts game, but I still reckon Wanganeen and Burgoyne were better.
On, my knowledge of AFL I can almost guarantee I know more than you.
I had a very profitable season.
I backed Judd to win the brownlow, and Gehrig to win coleman and had them coupled in a big treble with Brissie.
I underestimated Port, no question, but I admitted that previously.
Instead, you find it more appropriate to take easy potshots at someone who had the guts to call it how they saw it.
I'd say you probly need to get a life and worry a bit more about yourself than me, champ.

[Church22]

Mug a congrates would have been nice.. Thats all.. not carry on that pickett didnt deserve it!!

[rabbitz]

Congrats Church 22
I picked pickett too but didnt end up backing him.Dont worry about Mugs,people have been brawling with him for weeks,he even got up me for supporting Lions and because I didnt hang out down at Carrara when the bears were struggling,I got in trouble.Water off a mugs back I reckon
Cheers :cool:

[mug punta]

Well Done to all who backed Port to beat Brisbane. Well done to anyone clever enough to pick Byron, you would have cleaned up.
Well Done. End of story.