Betting Strategy

[Raider]

Hi to all, I am a bit of a novice compared to most if not all of the regulars here. I am restricted most weeks to a few hours on friday night to read form and compare previos runs etc. I was wondering if you can help me out with my work punters club. We have $40 to spend and it is my turn to punt. To punt again I must Get a $50 return (at least $10 profit). And judging by by picks in the tipping comp I am in deep doodoo. We have had a dismal year by people aiming too high with win/place tickets each week. Can someone sugest a formula to follow with this budget per week?

[Mr J]

Is your aim to profit or to get to punt again? If it's just to punt again, put the $40 on a bet priced at $1.25. If it's to profit, then there is no simple answer or system.

[knowledge]

Read knowledge's Winning Betting Streak thread for winning bets. :wink:

[goldmember]

Have the $40 @ $1.25 on Australia to beat the kiwi's tomorrow in the league that'll get you your $50 and another punt next week.

cheers

[sportznut]

I'm pretty sure it's meant to be on the horses Goldmember.

[goldmember]

Oh, ok, dint realise that, i just hope that it will be a wet track at caulfield tomorrow as i love betting there and moonee valley when its wet, but for some reason i cant pick my nose at Flemington when it rains

[knowledge]

Well, if you don't have to bet on horses here is some sports value which I'm sure can make you some profit.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa - Over 2.5 goals ($1.68)
Arsenal - $1.26

AC Milan to beat Cagliari - $1.60.

Good day.

[Raider]

Thanks for the inputs. Having a tally up it seems there is only a month to go in our comp and we are way behind, so I might have a lash for some profit I think. I am thinking of a trifecta on the Caulfield cup with Hugs Dancer either on top or as a rover. Any ideas on the combinations I could get with $40? I can't seem to find any costings on any race sites.

[maverick1993]

Raider...you should box 5 horses for 1/2 that costs $30
and put a first 4 on 2/3/5/6 costs $9 for a 1/4
and you have $1 for a treble on races 6,7,8

or you could go 3/5/6 for a 1/2 costs $24
and a 1st 4... 2/3/6/7 for a 1/4 costs $16

good luck,,,dont forget to have Delzao and Confectioner in those multis :smile:

[Privateer]

Box up some of these in all ups.... I suggest 3 per bet i.e WWW, WWP, WPP, PPP, PPW, PWP, WPW, PWW....$1 per bet.

Caulfield

Race 1 - 2 & 6
Race 2 - 2
Race 3 - 2
Race 4 - 4
Race 5 - 8
Race 6 - 14
Race 8 - 1
Race 9 - 12

[sportznut]

$1 each way on the entire Caulfield Cup field and hope 3 roughies come home! :lol:

[sportznut]

Seriously though, if you like Hugs Dancer, I think you should put $5 each way on it and take a $30 trifecta. Not sure you should have Hugs Dancer on top or as a rover though. If you back it each way and it wins, you'll win around $50 anyway, so I suggest you play it a bit safer with the trifecta. Perhaps a 5 horse box or a 3x6x6.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-16 01:02 ]</font>

[Raider]

Thanks again to all, Maybe I might be better off having 5 e/w on Hugs dancer and a trifecta on another race with less runners?

[sportznut]

If you think the trifecta is too hard on the Cup, why not simply pick out three good each way chances in other races to go along with Hugs Dancer. Should be PLENTY of value today at Caulfield and if you get one winner from your four, you'll be in front.

[Dr Pangloss]

Sportznut writes, "Should be PLENTY of value today at Caulfield..."

After more than 2,000 posts your concept of VALUE is precisely what? Nothing more than some cliched blurb from the clapped out "media experts". Save us from any more of this racing wisdom (drivel) as we will no doubt be inundated with such pearls throughout the Spring Carnival via TV, Radio, internet anyways.

[Floydyboy]

Oh yes we will obey great one... Piss Orf!!
My definition of value is when ya pat yer arse and it goes "Kerching" ...Whats yours

[sportznut]

Get out of the wrong side of the bed Doc?

I know they may not actually be 'value' in a technical punting sense, but they are 'value' in as much as what Raider is looking for today.

[Raider]

Thanks all. I decided to try three $10 win bets (Strikeline, Hugs Dancer and Covet Thee) and a $10 tri on the cup for a half (1,7/1,7,9/1,2,3,7,9,13,16). Heres hoping.

[moeee]

Yes the dear Doctor would have been more popular if he had not made a comment at all.
But since he has,I would like to comment that he is certainly right and those who felt any sort of pain from his comment should really ponder very carefully on his wisdom.
Bit like telling cigarette smokers that smoking is very unhealthy for them.True statement but smokers don't want to know.
If you sit at a roulette wheel and notice that reds and blacks pay evens,but numbers straight out pay at $35,do you consider betting straight out as getting value?
If so,you really need to get a better concept as to what value is!
By the way dear Doctor had a go at me once.Of course he was wrong and I was right that time but!

[Dr Pangloss]

Mooee I didn't have a go at you. After starting an interesting thread you dropped off quicker than some of the horses I backed today. Just because someone challenges your ideas doesn't mean WWIII has been declared.

I enjoy a lot of what sportnutz says and the way he presents his ideas. But that "plenty of value" clap-trap made me almost puke. Watching too much TV sportzy to the extent you are sub-consciously parrotting their collective rot.

Floydboy - tut, tut. You next boy, you next.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Dr Pangloss on 2004-10-16 16:44 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, value is in the eye of the beholder. I've bet on 9 races at Caulfield today backing 2 horses per race and I've had 9 winners. Considering the form of some of them, I think they WERE all pretty good value.

You're probably right with your comment about me listening to too many of those Radio and TV tipsters. I hope I don't end up copying more of the rubbish they come out with. I guess I could have put it better, but my basis for that comment about 'plenty of value' was simply that on a day like this, Raider could pick out 3 or 4 very good chances and if 1 of them managed to win, he would end up comfortably in front. And that's exactly what's happened. Covet Thee got up in the last race at $6. Well done Raider! :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-16 17:53 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

tut tut yeah right ...Im Quivering with delight..
Listen doc I got a prob with people who talk down to others but all in all I dont have to sit you at my dinner table so im not really that narked about it .

Saying that ,Id much rather friendly banter than animosity ....So cheers from me :smile:

[Raider]

Thanks for the advice Sportznut. I think The strategy of three picks and a trifecta to try and put the icing worked for me today. Looks like I get to live again till next week. Will try and study during the week for next weekend. Might have to try and look for your selections next weekend if today is any example?

[sportznut]

Yeah, good idea. I think that's the way to go with 3 win bets at around $5-$10.

I'm glad I concentrated on Caulfield today. Good horses, good jockeys, good racing and the form really stood up. I didn't bet on Sydney or Adelaide at all today and only had 3 races in Brisbane and 4 in Perth.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-16 18:13 ]</font>

[Raider]

Don't know whether this makes sense or not, but today it felt like if I took the favourite and also the three other best jockeys in the race for a win / place I would have done alright. Would this be normal for race days? I realise that best jockeys are debatable. ie Oliver, Brown King etc.

[sportznut]

Well, you could do worse. I don't know that it would work out that well all the time and as you said it's a matter of opinion who the best jockeys are.

By the way, I actually like to back Damien Oliver and Darren Beadman in the first and last race of the day if they're on good chances. It sure worked out well today!!! :grin:

[Privateer]

I see the petty nitpicking and animosity between posters hasn't changed much since my last visit. Thanks for reminding me why I rarely post nowadays.

[Dr Pangloss]

I saw you did well on the punt Saturday sportnutz, particulary at Caulfield, with runners at the shorter end of the market. VALUE can (is) be a patronising term peculiar within the media's vernacular that for some reason irritates me more than just about anything else - "one for the ladies" (ie a bolter that can not win) has a similar ring to it.

No worries to you Floydboy - I take your point. The written word doesn't have the advantage of tone, emphasis or 'tounge in cheek' and can be misunderstood. As you can see from my comments above we seem to be coming from the same direction anyway.

[Moderator 2]

Please keep posts pleasant and relevant to thread subject matter.

[sportznut]

'One for the ladies' is a shocker.

I'll tell you the racing term that irritates me the most: "Whatever beats this will win." What the hell is that supposed to mean? Is it going to run 2nd? Surely, if they think the horse is a good thing, then nothing's going to beat it.

[Mr J]

I'll tell you about a good betting strategy?

Pick just 1 bet per day. By being more selective, you are basically analysing, and in doing so are developing handicapping skills.

Or you could just do a whole lot of statistical work.

[Dr Pangloss]

OK well lets do some hard Horse Racing stats.

Consider Sat metro races for MSBA in races of minimum 8 runners (three place divs) where the Favourite returns an SP of $2.00 or less. Using NSW TAB divs results since July 01 until last Saturday are:

WIN
442 races
219 winners
SR 49.5%
-59.6 units
LoT -13.4%

PLACE
442 races
372 winners
SR 84.2%
-10.46 units
LoT -2.4%
ave div $1.17

Further consider the PLACE results. There are at least two on-line bookies that will bet you the BEST TAB PLACE dividend. Getting the best of the three TABs place dividend nets a premium of .08% per winning bet. (ie ave winning div is now $1.25)

Applying the BEST TAB premium renders the place results thus:

442 races
372 winners
SR 84.2%
19.2 units
PoT 4.42%

This is a system virtually devoid of rules. One of the on-line bookies I speak of actually paid an additional 5 cent premium on BEST PLACE div from Oct thru to end of April this year (thank you). You could not lose. It's a little tougher these days although I have not disclosed my entire strategy that includes Favourites up to SP $2.5.