MULTI BETTING

[thebookie]

Just wondering how many of you guys concentrate on mutli betting only?

I do all my own prices for sporting events and was looking to start taking multi's over a wide range of events.

Is it simply a matter of still backing the "overs" when the chance of each event occurring is multiplied out, or is there more involved in terms of the probability?

Any advice is much appreciated.

Cheers,

thebookie

[moeee]

Keep your multis short and sweet is my suggestion.
2,3 or 4 selections only.

If your selections,for example,are calculated as being 50% chances and bookies are giving 45%,then you have an overlay of 10% on each.
If you combine say 3 of your selections in a multi,your calculated price would be 12.5%
And the bookies would be offering 9.1%
So the overlay with the 3 runners in a multi is 27%
You have increased your overlay but certainly decreased the probability of a collect.
Maybe you didn't understand?.Would you like me to clear up any misunderstandings,or would you prefer if I just clear off!

[Floydyboy]

well we got no chance of you clearin orf so ya might as well clear it up :lol: ,,,They say that multis are no value chance wise the odds arent high enough

[thebookie]

No, I understand completely.

Doesn't it make sense then, if your prices are accurate and you're using a decent staking plan and getting a bigger overlay, then your ROI will be greater?

The only thing I'm struggling with is that logically I know it's hard enough to find one winner, let alone multiple winners-how do you figure this in statistically?

[moeee]

Well there's a longshot come home.Somebody actually understands me!
Know,Bookie,that the shorter price you concieve your selection to be,that the more certain that you will get plenty of collects.
With the associated shorter run of outs.
As the price goes higher the chances of a return rise.Granted the return will be much more substantial,but the run of outs between collects grows.
And believe me,the run of outs really shatters your nerves big time.Might even wipe out your bank.

Tell you what I do.
The shorter my calculated price,the less overlay I chase.I mean getting 100 to 1 about a calculated 50 to 1 shot is a huge overlay,but can you see it as madness?

Test your math skills here.
I use this formula:
"My odds",multiplied by "my odds",multiplied by 0.15,plus "my odds"
Gee that looks ugly written like that so here's 2 examples.One at $1.60,and the other at $6.50

1.6 times 1.6 times 0.15 equals 0.384
Add 1.6 becomes $1.98 is the price I chase for my $1.60 selection.About 24% overlay

6.5 * 6.5 * 0.15 + 6.5 = $12.85
On this roughie,I am chasing a 100% overlay.
And my key to not going broke between collects is to put less on the rougher selections and more on the favoured ones.
Hopefully your staking plan provides for this.

[moeee]

Another thing about Multis.
Never put selections in your Multis that you consider are under the odds.
You can increase the price of the final dividend certainly,and still have an overall overlay,but you will decrease your overlay overall.
Now that that's all over I shall lay down!

Also there is a thread about my Multi experiences that you may find amusing.
If you use the search facility and look up multi with moeee as the author.

[thebookie]

Thanks Mooee.

I am only new to the forum and there seem to be a few...umm... "interesting" "experts" on here hahaha

Don't worry mate, I have a "fair" idea of what's going on :wink:

I understand that multi's will provide a bigger overlay and greater variance.

And I also know that if anyone ever takes "unders" they should be shot!

I'm actually trialling a full kelly staking plan at the moment which seems to be what you've loosely based your plan on :wink:

Look forward to finding that thread...

[moeee]

That thread is called roll-your-owns and it is quite amusing as distinct from informative.

And all I can say is that Kelly ended up getting hanged for all his good intentions.
BEWARE!

[Mr J]

Risk of ruin and of overbetting is huge for multis compared to betting singles.

[moeee]

In fact Mr J,an even money Multi comprised of 3 odds on chances is still an even money chance with no more risk than a single even money bet.

[puntersteve]

On 2004-11-04 10:32, moeee wrote:
In fact Mr J,an even money Multi comprised of 3 odds on chances is still an even money chance with no more risk than a single even money bet.


I have to get 3 (odds on) winners to finish in front versus 1 (even money) winner. Much more risk in first option imo.

[Mr J]

No Moeee, that's not it.

The even paying 3 multi has alot more variance than if you had bet the 3 as singles.

You don't compare an even paying multi to a single of the same payoff. You compare the multi to betting each leg as a single.

[moeee]

For all your wisdom Mr J you surprise me this time.
Surely an even money chance has a 50% chance of occurring whether it is a horse race,a spin of the roulette wheel or anything you care to mention?
Let's take roulette for example.
I'll give you even money plus 15% that 2 blacks will come up in the next 4 spins.?
Would you take this bet.
YOU BETCHA WOULD.

[Mr J]

Moeee, you're not getting what I'm saying. You aren't meant to compare a single priced $2.00 to a multi priced at $2.00. You have to compare say two bets of $1.42, and putting them tother in a multi which would pay roughly $2.00.

Ie betting Team A at $1.42 and then team B at $1.42 gives much less variance than betting Teams A & B in a $2.00 multi.

You see variance obviously goes up when you put them in a multi instead of betting them single. This is due to needing them both to win. Now since variance has gone up, there is much greater risk of overbetting, which in turn very often leads to ruin.

The other thing to consider (although it doesn't really matter if you are just a casual bettor), is that betting singles allows you to get the best prices at different books. A multi means taking the prices offered by a single book. Shopping around for the best prices is often worth enough to counter the house edge (ie break even vs the bookie).

[dc]

i did this today, i think this is certain.

TENNIS:
Roddick v Mirnyi
RODDICK LOST
Henman v Youzhny
HENMAN LOST
Massu v Hewitt
HEWITT WON

@ 2.02 BET: $50 PAYOUT $100.95


I know this is short but I'm confident I'll make a sure lazy $50.

You were right Stats and Knowledge. I shoulda done more homework on those.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dc on 2004-11-05 15:18 ]</font>

[knowledge]

wtf.. where do you get multis like that? my stupid betting agency doesn't let me create multis. That has to be one of the best value bets I've ever seen dc.

Good luck.

[dc]

Hey Knowledge ,Im on CENTREBET. yeah you can create your own multi's, adding in other sports too.I thought centrebet is very well known?. I just joined and like it. I had a good win from Bush from there too, heh.

[stats]

my man youzhny is going to cost you $50
SURE THING!!

[dc]

stats... i sure hope not cause ive got a $100 head to head on him @ $1.50 too.

He is a little risk but i feel HENMAN can win it! Im actually a bit concerned about Hewitt chokin' ya know... with Kimmi on his mind and stuff.

[knowledge]

Henman is the biggest choker of them all, but I think he can win. This is a tournament he's won before.