Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process?

[xanadu]

With the new season imminent it is an opportune time to discuss this issue. As the high class "carnival" horses begin to reappear and embark upon their spring campaigns there should be some prime opportunities for the astute punter to secure good priced winners.
Many will say that the path to selecting winners is a combination of nimuerous factors, eg. weight,barriers,jockey,trainer,breeding,fitness,time ratings etc.
Horses with a win strike rate of 20-25% and an overall place percentage of >80%are generally deemed to be class horses. Generally, horses with this proven consistency ratio can be expected to perform similarly in the future.
Therefore, the astute punter can benefit from these solid betting prospects.
He/She may even identify such horses in races where the general consensus suggests they have little chance. Yet, time and again they(ie.class horses) put up herculean efforts to defeat elite fields at surprisingly generous odds.
Class is the only factor which is not variable. Horses with this attribute regularly overcome adverse circumstances and win at apparently unsuitable distances against elite opposition.
What gets them home in many a tight finish after overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles? - "CLASS."
Anyone have any thoughts on this matter?
Cheers.

[umrum]

I agree class is one of the best indicators. I often say to myself after a losing race "damn I knew that was the best horse in the race, why didn't I back it"? Usually because factors such as weight, value and form of other runners is irresistable. I find if you back the besty horse in the race in most races you will do well.

[xanadu]

Hullo umrum,

Yes, we have all done that.
Particularly, betting on the races run during the week. The astute punter identifies many opportunities in the more obscure venues on the provincial and country circuit, particularly on the eastern seabourne.
As another contributor, Kenchar, said in a recent post.....all it needs is patience and I agree with him that it is easier said than done. We cannot resist the allure of having one more bet on that "certainty" in the upcoming race....wherever that may be.
As you indicated though, if punters restrict their bets to "class" horses they will definitely notice an improvement in their strike-rate and eventual POT.
Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well..., Melb Race 6 has now been run and won superbly by that "class" horse," Super Elegant. A protest "muddied the waters" however my view of the head-on shot suggested there was no real chance of success.
I believed there were only two real chances, Super Elegant and that great old campaigner, Bomber Bill. Other "pretenders" such as Bennetts Green and Wildly were mainly the product of media hype.
Dilly Dally ran a good race and may be one for the future.
It confirms my point that champion horses will invariably come through as they possess that defined quality of "class."
Within certain parameters, even excessive weight cannot bring this class of horse back to the field. At the wfa scale, really, Wildly and Bennetts Green had no real chance. However, they should pay their way this spring and the astute punter may secure generous odds....just be patient and wait for the opportunities.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Respected race-caller, Greg Miles, quoted during the win of Super Elegant today: "displayed the ticker inside when the chips were down with this guy."
It is a tribute to a "class" horse and there are more of them out there awaiting the spring carnival.
The astute punter will spend the time in form study and reap the benefit of these opportunities.

Cheers.

[umrum]

Respected race-caller, Greg Miles, quoted during the win of Super Elegant today: "displayed the ticker inside when the chips were down with this guy."
It is a tribute to a "class" horse and there are more of them out there awaiting the spring carnival.
The astute punter will spend the time in form study and reap the benefit of these opportunities.

Cheers.


Yeah great horse. Only had three bets saturday one was super and a saver on dilly dally and the other salavat in perth so Super gave me a tidy profit. The dismissal of the protest was correct imo.

cheers

[xanadu]

Yes Umrum, as I said earlier, we are on the threshhold of the new racing season and there will be innumerable betting/profit-making possibilities for us this Spring.
All the best.

[Dale]

Class is a key but a class horse can not race at a supreme level race after race,year after year,eventualy it gets old and weary.

Imo we should be looking for horses that have earned their "class" reputation as recently as possible.

[xanadu]

Yeah, Dale, you're right, as the "old guard" age and retire, there are always a number of younger aspirants ready and able to take over as the latest "big thing."
However, the only problem with this hype is that many a "boom" horse fails to maintain their form due to injury or just "training off."
The class horses which I highlight are those that have displayed exceptional consistency against elite opposition over the last few seasons.
So take the "big picture" approach.....there are plenty of prospects out there.
Now, please excuse me as I am about to begin my form study for the weekend races and hopefully identify those "class" horses which the media and racing pundits have generally under-estimated and may provide me with a profitable betting opportunity.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I would like to maybe seek the input of a form analyst, osulldj in this matter.
I respect his opinion and would like to hear his insight into his own form analysis(without giving any secrets away).
Looking forward to his incisive comments.

Cheers.

[Mr ed]

Get on the Kid this weekend Xanadu. He always drifts in the market, and looks extremely hard to beat, is he the class horse of the race? because i'd say Our Smoking Joe is classier, although his record is nowhere near as good as Dandy's. Wait for Dilly Dally to get down the Flemington straight, there are not many in the land that could beat her at wfa down the straight 6.

[xanadu]

Yes, Mr ed, the Kid certainly has an enviable record at the Valley and should run well. My only concern is a 3kg boy on topweights which I am usually averse to backing. However, I believe the apprentice has previously won on the kid so this nullifies any doubts about his ability to handle "the Moonee Valley champ." I also agree with your comment about Our Smoking Joe, a horse upon which I have won a bit in the past. Also, Dilly Dally,... like yourself, I noticed the exceptional run last week and in the right race at the right distance on the right track, what can stop her from cleaning up this Spring?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Mr ed, one thing I forgot to mention in my reply to you. Later today, at 3:10 p.m. EST, race 6 in Sydney, there are a number of "class" horses running-Spark Of Life, Court's In Session, Dance Hero and one that I am keeping my eye on...King Rex. It has been in good form and is to be ridden by Billy Idol...the only question is...can it step up? There is a big media push for Snippetson but I like to see at least ten starts from any horse before, statistically, I can evaluate whether it qualifies as a "class" horse.
Very interesting race but I will be dutch-betting if possible and having exotic bets hopefully to return a respectable POT. We'll see how it goes.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, the big race has been run and won.....by a "class" horse, Dance Hero. Snippetson ran a good race and appears ready to "step up."
Spark Of Life ran a "good" race but was "burned-off" by the winner.
Presently ran a very "even" race and may have something in store for connections this Spring.
As I said, a very interesting race.....hmmmm. I'll study the video tonight.
Any thoughts?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well Mr ed, although "the kid' did not run up to our expectations, that grand campaignor, Our Smoking Joe did the right thing and not only covered our outlay but gave us a very nice POT,(ie. dutch-betting).
Question....do you think "the kid" was disappointing?
I'll study the video tonight to make up my own mind whether he is now "over the top."
However, you see why I have usually adhered to my edict of not backing 3kg apprentices on topweights(although, I had no complaints about the ride). I can assure you that if you delete this category of rider, you will show a better overall return on your investments.

Cheers.

[gazman]

hey xanadu,,,i think your very right with what you say about class today was a class race and in the end the class horese won how he wanted doubt i'll get 5 to 1 about him again for a while....
most people that punt enough to spend time here,and elsewhere cant wait long enough for the odd class race this time of year so they, me ,we,will try to find value else were....do you think its possible to find class in a ballarat class 6..............cheers gaz

[xanadu]

G'Day gazman,

As you can see, 'class" horses, within certain parameters, will continue in their normal racing pattern, until, as mentioned by another contributor, they age, get injured or succumb to a better athlete.
That's fine, but it is up to the astute punter to decide when it is time to cease supporting the fading star and get on to the rising star.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Gazman,

Further to your post, yes I do believe that it is possible to find value at a provincial or country meeting. In fact, these meetings are my "happy hunting ground" for such chances.
Any horse, from an astute/leading stable dropping down to country class warrants further investigation although its form stats show...9976...etc
Hope this helps you.

Cheers.

[Mr ed]

I thought Dandy Kid ran well enough, he needs it wet these days, and today was close enough to good. He was poorly ridden, he could've taken the passage the winner took although he wouldn't have got up. The winner despite having all the favors was very impressive and looks a real chance in a race like the Mooney Valley Cup, Winning Edge presentation, etc. Did back Dance Hero, unbelieveable discrepancy in the prices between it and Spark of Life, his run in the Straddie was so good aswell, i admit if the odds were $3 a piece i would've probably taken Spark of Life. Dance Hero is very close to the best horse Australia has and needs to start getting some recognition, he is highly underrated.

[xanadu]

Yes, Mr ed,

A great win, but I noticed in a media report that doubts exist as to his ability to recreate his 2YO brilliance. Well, he showed the doubters and should proceed onto greater heights(injury free I hope).

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Punters..., just one other issue to be aware of in your final thoughts about backing certain horses/dogs/trotters. How many times have you intended to back a certain runner but been diverted away by some negative report or opinion from some "expert."
Regularly, the horse/dog/trotter, that you intended to support, duly salutes at generous odds leaving you cursing for having listened to someone elses opinion.
Take my advice....always follow your own opinion...sure..., listen to the "experts" for their opinion, but, believe in your own thoughts/ form study before investing your "hard-earned."
All the best.

Cheers.

[gazman]

hey there xanadu,,,,,,,,,,i read with interest that gai said that its much harder to train a stayer to sprint than it is to train a sprinter to stay..

may be some thing to do with the future of dance hero ....food for thought when looking at early markets..................cheers ...gaz....

[timothy]

Yea, Gai said to be aiming DH for the Cox Plate - now that would be a training feat to pull off. Right horse to test her throry of training sprinters to "stay" (though CP is a "short" 2040m - as we know a good miler can win it).

[xanadu]

Tomorrow, there are a number of "class" horses running. However,at this early stage in my form ananlysis, I have highlighted a number of actions in SR7 that warrant further scrutiny.
In my opinion, there are three "class" horses in this field....
No2 Newton's Ring(currently in very consistent form),
No5 Jovial
No13Men At Work
Not topliners by any means but "class" horses as indicated by their past performances, within their own class capabilities.
A race which I would normally probably not get too involved in except for a number of interesting occurrences:
i) Newton's Ring - G Boss exits as rider although finishing a close second at it's last start;
ii) Jovial - reasonable run last start(I was on it 1x5), apprentice K Fuji, replaced by senior rider, L Cassidy. Older style form students would note that Newton's Rings beat Jovial last start by a neck when they were carrying 56kg & 53 kg respectively. In tomorrow's race, there is only a 0.5kg difference in their weights(56kg & 55.5kg respectively). Presumably, at these weight differentials, Jovial should not be able to match Newton's Rings, however, there have been significant jockey changes and this may be the defining feature in this particular duel. Jockey ratings would suggest that the difference in previous riders, K Fuji-Cassidy(Jovial) -big difference & G Boss-Z Purton(Newton's Rings), relatively less difference, would negate this impact,
iii) Men At Work - a certain jockey, G Boss, relinquishing the ride on Newton's Rings to ride this fellow. My only reservation is the "second-up" syndrome.
So this race gives us some food for thought but these are very good indicators that certain horses are expected to put in respectable runs.
If interested, wager in the ratio of 1x5 and like any race there are no guarantees. However, we are wagering on fit, hard runners, some of whom may have a future. Also, let's not forget...there are a number of other well credentialled runners in this race.NB. the topweight has a 3kg boy onboard so is a "watch and see" proposition.
See how we go.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Yes, gazman, we will have to wait and see if she can weave her magic in respect of this fellow. Let's face it, if anyone can she can.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

The race has now been run and won:
Newton's Rings ran OK but not up to the task,
Jovial, went out in front which is customary but unable to hold off the challengers, interesting to note that it had little support in the betting ring and set a solid pace for it's stablemate...hmmm,
Men At Work, went well and justified public support.

Cheers.

[gazman]

hey xanadu,,,,,,hope all is well......had to put my bets on friday lunch time as i went fishing for three days...........it was a great way to bet as there was no input from outside sources as you talked about in this thread,,,,i would be a great learning curve for anyone to do, and that is to make your mind up and dont be swayed by opions of people who dont invest as much time and money as most of us that bother to post on here as i think there is a wealth of information to found if you no were to look .....in the end xanadu i would be suprised if you did not back WORDS OF MAGIC as i thought he was a class above those he was against on saturday and was 12to1..go figure...
cheers.....gaz...

[xanadu]

Goodonya gazman, however, unfortunately, I did not secure that good-priced winner. As you will probably agree, there are more of them out there, even at country and provincial venues - we just have to look for them in a methodical way and block out any distractions.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

In my initial form appraisal I have identified several "class" horses running tomorrow:
SR6 1 Dance Hero
" 2 Spark Of Life
" 3 Snippetson
It will be interesting to see whether Dance Hero "burns off" Spark of Life as he did last start. Spark Of Life should be better primed this start to take Dance Hero on. Snippetson has only had 7 starts and usually I wouldn't include him in my calculations however he impressed me last time and may be a potential Spring star.
SR8 2 Wild Queen
SR9 3 Mystery City*
SR9 5 Appalachian*, *these two have not had the prerequisite number of starts to usually interest me but I think they may be going places so I will monitor their progress. Also, Beadman has been engaged for the Waterhouse runner, so we will see what unfolds.
MR712Caprizzi Strip, the state of the track gives me some concern,

Cheers.

[Mr ed]

Xanadu, i think the only danger to Dance Hero is Carrie on Cutie, she was my pick for 2yo of the year, and gets in 10kg lighter then the boys. Dance Hero from the Missile, looks to have his rivals from that event covered and i would happily take the $2.10 if Carrie On was not engaged.

[Sportz]

Wish there were 8 starters. Carry On Cutie would be a magnificent each way bet. Dance Hero is obviously the one to beat, but if he wasn't there, I'd actually be quite confident with Carry On Cutie.

[xanadu]

Interesting Sportz, we'll have to see if there is any "smart" money for it.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Yes Mr ed, allowing for the fact that technically, she may still only be 2YO it will be very interesting to see if she can compete successfully against the more seasoned opposition.
It has all the hallmarks of developing into a very interesting race and should give us all a pointer to the prospects of all runners in the upcoming feature races.
All the best and good luck.

Cheers.

[Mr ed]

Another i think is the 'class' tommorow is Stamen in Adelaide, he's a great horse with a terrific finishing sprint. He never came up last prep and has had a nice long spell, but he never races well during autumn for some reason but come springtime he's a ripper. Has placed 4 of 5 fresh, and with only 55kg he's a live chance IMO.

[xanadu]

Well.....the race is over and what a result!!....there is a belief that the rider of Dance Hero went too early and may have some explaining to do to connections.
If any astute punter backed Shania Dane let us know what your main consideration was. As it unfolded the race was set up for backmarkers but having said that, Shania Dane still had to be good enough to match it with these class sprinters.
I thought the task may be too much for Carry On Cutie because as I said in an earlier post she may still be a 2YO and it is asking too much for her to compete with other topliners notwithstanding her apparent weight advantage.

Cheers.

[Sportz]

Well, obviously I was way off with Carry On Cutie. Sorry. :o

But seriously, how could you pick Shania Dane?

[xanadu]

Sportz, she will definitely pay her way this Spring so stay with her.
I "lucked out" in the race by investing on Dance Hero in the ratio of 1x5. Having said that, I noted with interest the other thread that indicated that in the longrun this may not be the best wagering method to follow(ie. 1x3, 1x4, 1x5...etc). We'll see what unfolds this Spring but it is my belief that successful wagering depends on your strike-rate accompanied by amounts wagered and result sequence...ie you could be down to your last unit and back a 40/1 winner thereby recouping all your previous losses and end up with a reasonable POT.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Just as a side issue, I was watching the race on TVN and it had a very close shot of the finish with Lenny Beasley, head down, frantically riding his mount out "hands and heels" then whoosh...Shania Dane swept past, giving him a cold in the process.
Lenny looked across and the look on his face was priceless as all of his hard work to fight off Spark Of Life had come to nought. You really had to feel for the guy.
Spark Of Life should now be ready to amend next start so stay with him.

Cheers.

[lomaca]

If any astute punter backed Shania Dane let us know what your main consideration was.

Cheers.
Hi!
I have 10 criteria in my rating, and Shania Dane never came less then third, as a matter of fact it came second four times, in the individual ratings. and third in the overall.
Given the prices for the favs, and the price on offer, I would have been stupid not to back it.
I had them in this order 6-2-5-1
Cheers.

[Sportz]

I "lucked out" in the race by investing on Dance Hero in the ratio of 1x5.

Well, I got something back. I took a quinella with Dance Hero and the field. I was actually going to leave Shania Dane out of that bet, but I thought I may as well chuck her in with the others. Didn't honestly expect her to get up and win though.

[gazman]

hey xanadu and all,,,,,,,,,,i dont think the ride on dance hero was bad and the time they ran was a new record,the way shaina let down at the end was the sign of a horse with a lot class,,,but time will tell...
xanadu it was interesting to notice that between gai,hawkes,bart,beadman,boss there was not that much left for the others....................cheers.........gaz..........

[xanadu]

Greetings to all,
Iomaca - goodonya! you identified a class performer which was well over the odds and ignored the general trend of the betting public, good luck to you.
Sportz - good bet! you were able to turn a profit from an "upset" result - keep doing that and you will survive in the long-run.
Gazman - it is an interesting statistic isn't it? The major stables and riders certainly get all the "cream" and the "battlers" have to be content with the "crumbs." Then again why shouldn't excellence be rewarded?
Let's face it...the Waterhouse stable certainly supports the country and provincial circuit especially at Newcastle, Gosford and Wyong where she takes her lesser lights and potentially promising candidates for an "easy" kill. Seriously, an astute punter can make a good living from following her runners at these venues as most are high class, high cost, well-bred individuals which are working their way through the classes before taking on the more elite opposition in town. To a lesser extent, the same applies for the Hawkes establishment so I suppose that, as far as benefit to the industry goes, the domination by the mega stables may not be such a bad thing.

Cheers.

[Sportz]

Just heard this morning that Carry On Cutie was greatly inconvenienced by Snippetson in the run. So, I'm still hopeful of a good spring for her.

[xanadu]

Yeah, she was given a bit of a "buffetting" from other runner(s), who, by the way , set a very solid pace - don't forget, she is still probably a bit immature but I agree, she should pay to follow this Spring.
After you mentioned it the other day it received solid pre-post support, maybe you "lit the fire" of support for it.

Cheers

[Mr ed]

hey xanadu and all,,,,,,,,,,i dont think the ride on dance hero was bad and the time they ran was a new record,the way shaina let down at the end was the sign of a horse with a lot class,,,but time will tell...
xanadu it was interesting to notice that between gai,hawkes,bart,beadman,boss there was not that much left for the others....................cheers.........gaz..........

The fact that it was a new record would indicate to me that it wasn't the best ride by Beasley. He had Spark of Life covered a long way from home and they were already travelling at an enormous pace. If he had just stayed with the leader until the final furlong he would've most likely won the race. The winner was very impressive and surprised me, but Ikes Dream got home just as well as her and Carrie On Cutie who was molested by Snippetson did run a good race and judging by the follow on was full of running towards the end. Thousand Guineas looks an ideal target.

Was also extremely impressed by the second placed Pendragon earlier in the day, they really walked early and he was physically no chance of getting to the leader from second last in the time they sprinted home. Come time for the Golden Rose he will be spot on, and they don't walk in front in million dollar races, i am declaring him already.

[kiwi]

Hi!
I have 10 criteria in my rating, and Shania Dane never came less then third, as a matter of fact it came second four times, in the individual ratings. and third in the overall.
Given the prices for the favs, and the price on offer, I would have been stupid not to back it.
I had them in this order 6-2-5-1
Cheers.

Would you share some of the criteria that helped you back the winner.I rated Dance Hero way in front, but unbackable at the odds.

The winner I only rated worth backing on breeding and had it 5 out of 6.Shania Dane must have huge potential to run down DH the way it did

[xanadu]

Yeah Mr ed,

Pendragon certainly has the "big wrap" on him at the moment. Also, has top trainer, top jockey and is leading up to that race very nicely having finished from 7th at the 400m to run second, beaten 3/4 len by Paratrooper, which was ridden a masterful ride by Beadman.
I can see why you are so confident and expecting a top run in it's next race.

Cheers.

[Tenacious Spirit]

I wasn't suprised at all. It was a no bet race for me anyway, but i can recall shania dane doing something similar early in the autumn, i can;t remember the race but i am pretty sure she stormed home in a big race and upset the apple cart.

I thought dance hero was miles in front with everything "being even". But i knew that wouldnt be the case. The instructions for spark of life would be to ride more agressively at the start at all costs. I think the message from the trainer would have been don't stay out of touch with dance hero even if it means stuffing up your own chances. That sounds stupid, but if spark of life was to take a sit, then with no other speed in the race the hero would run them off their feet like previously. Wheras if you go out for the front then at least there is a chance that dance hero might be inconvenienced in the run or something. It was a lose lose situation for both spark of life and dance hero.

With that in mind i thought the only three chances were carry on cutie, ikes dream and shania dane. i was going to go with carry on cutie but she was unders in my opinion. Then i saw the price for ikes dream and shania dane which i thought were pretty much equal chances and thought it was a bit fishy so left it alone.

I think it was one of those races where on paper you go oh well dance hero is a moral. But then you say to yourself, tactics???

I agree with Mr Ed though. Beasley went to early.

[gazman]

mr ed and t,mr ed how much more time do think dance hero would have taken of that record if it was riden better????????that record has stood a lot of class horse over the years and ikes dream had no chance of beating dance hero i do feel for the jock as if he stood back and took the sit everyone would be jumping all over him.............as for pendragon ive seen boss ride a loy better,but maybe he was told to ride it like that.....cheers .....gaz.........

[xanadu]

Yeah Tenacious Spirit,

She won those two quality races in the autumn then was spelled and came back primed for Saturday's race with a solid barrier trial on 5.8.05. Obviously, she grew and matured during her spell and was ready for Saturday's race, although as mentioned before, tactics employed by other riders presented her with the perfect opportunity to upset the well fancied runners.
We now roll on the lead-up races to the Spring carnival and as other top performers reappear there will be innumerable opportunities for the astute punter to prosper.
As I pinpointed in my post on 12.8.05, (SR8 Wild Queen $2.8 $1.4 & SR9 Mystery City $5.1 $1.9) class horses duly won. Class horses will, subject to injury and any other factors, continue to perform as their prior record suggests.

Cheers.

[Mr ed]

mr ed and t,mr ed how much more time do think dance hero would have taken of that record if it was riden better????????that record has stood a lot of class horse over the years and ikes dream had no chance of beating dance hero i do feel for the jock as if he stood back and took the sit everyone would be jumping all over him.............as for pendragon ive seen boss ride a loy better,but maybe he was told to ride it like that.....cheers .....gaz.........

Gazman, i think i may have you confused. Dance Hero wouldn't have broken the record if he waited, but he may very well have won the race. The hectic pace he and SOL set up is what attributed to the record, so they burned off terrific sectionals but come crunch time there was not much left and the horse, who had the slipstream and had not done any work could storm over the top.

[lomaca]

Would you share some of the criteria that helped you back the winner.I rated Dance Hero way in front, but unbackable at the odds.

The winner I only rated worth backing on breeding and had it 5 out of 6.Shania Dane must have huge potential to run down DH the way it did
Hi!
The rating's criteria I use are:
CombinedRating (all of the following combined):
Time, Class, Form, Distance, Down_in_Class, Margin, Place%, WIN%, APIRanking.

Shania Dane came second in: Time, Form, Distance, and DownClass,
Came third in: class
Came forth in: Win%, Margin, APIRanking
Came fifth in: Place%
Came in third overall with the rated price of $6.7
The reason it came only third overall is that I give different weighting to each criteria.

I have to point out that my time, class and form ratings are quite different in SOME respects to the conventional ratings.

The down in class relies on MY class ratings so you may come to a different outcome on that one as well.
The Margin is simply the best beaten (or winning) margin of the last three runs.
I only use the last 3 to 5 runs for my ratings, not really interested what the horse has or hasn't done in the distant past.
Incidentally I take no notice of the success on distance indicators coming in the form files, simply because the wins or placings on distance could have happened too far back.
For this I use all the runs of the last two years only, and finishing second or third does not rate as high as the beaten margin.
I use Cyberhorse Zip files.

[gazman]

hey mr ed,i'm not confused and as T said tactics won the race but i''m saying that if beasley had let SOL get away in front and lost the race that way i'm sure he would have needed a police escort to weight in and his name would go down in history as the man who srcewed up...i'm also sure that if they thought any thing would be able to run him down after such hot sectionals they would run the race differently,,,,,thats the great thing about this game for me i would not bet on the race as i thought the price of dance hero was way under for the type of horses he was running against.the only mention i could see on this forum of shaina was from martin friedman and all credit to him...and will(sorry will )
cheers ...gaz............

[kiwi]

The Cyberhorse zip files give you more data than i have access to.

When the winner can beat DH 9 wins from 14, Spark Of Life 8 wins fromfrom 14 and Carry on Cutie 3 from 4 and all of these horses with huge potential given the opposition they have beaten, then Shania Dane must have untapped riches ahead, or will it fade into obscurity as the value of the prize money increases,or were the above preparing to hook bigger fish in the Group races and not being flogged to win a lesser race.:)

[lomaca]

then Shania Dane must have untapped riches ahead, or will it fade into obscurity as the value of the prize money increases,or were the above preparing to hook bigger fish in the Group races and not being flogged to win a lesser race.:)

You are perfectly right regarding upcoming races and the outcomes.

Cheers

[xanadu]

My initial form study reveals there are a number of potential profit-making runners tomorrow which warrant closer scrutiny:
SR3 5 Mystery City
SR5 2 Loftily
SR6 1 Court's In Session(been waiting for this one)
SR6 7 Dance Hero
SR610Dizelle
SR9 7 Lotteria
In race 4, Snitzel and Mr Owl remain under notice. As does Media in race 7, Prince Frederick(race 8) and Danni Martine in the last.
MR2 3 Uprize
MR2 7 Edgy Affair
MR6 8 Perlin, if he is forward enough
MR6 Lad Of The Manor
All are certainly class horses so we will see how they go. I've still got much more form analysis ahead of me yet so c u l8r.
What do think gaz?

Cheers.

[Stix]

Jump on Court's in Session and Regal Roller.... one out in the exotics....

[john spencer]

Class . What a great discusion. One of the great mystifying variables that attracts so many to the track .Persoanlly , i think 'class' best summed up by the legendary American punter Pittsburgh Phil who was once quoted as saying “Show me the man who can 'class' horses correctly and I will show you the man who can win all the money he wants”. For those that have not heard of Phil, grab his memoirs.A great read.

John

[gazman]

cum''on without cum''on within when quinn the jockey gets there meida will win...
will post saturday xanadu but i do like the look of that story...........
cheers ........gaz...............

[gazman]

i hope you liked my little riff to that song(that was dr merlot)
i do like meida today and took the fixed odds just has to run up to last run to be a great show many good horse today ,pitty about melbournes rain so i will stay away from that put all my bets on and i'm going to catch some dhue fish,the best fish in the world to eat its $50 kg at freo at moment and last week i cought a 18kg sucker if you ever come up to mid west wa get in touch and i'll look after you
..........cheers ........gaz..............
regal,,,,,,,,,dance.......oh okla.........lotty

[xanadu]

Go gaz!...keep rockin', the horses you have selected should provide you with the profits to really party on.
Stix, yeah if all goes well you should also be in the money today.
john spencer, good snooker player that bloke-although I haven't read that book, I am familiar with his thoughts and ideas which he formulated over a hundred years ago but which still have some benefit for we modern day punters.
A couple of my suggestions have been scratched and I will tread warily in Melbourne today also.

Good luck to all

[gazman]

john spencer blues explosion,,,,,,,,,,one of the best bands in the world...
cheers gaz.............it will be of interest to see how the snitz goes today plenty of talk about for it....what is your main go today xanadu,or you going to spread it around ...

[xanadu]

The state of the track in Melbourne has me a bit concerned....it is Caulfield after all! I'll just be perusing the markets to see if there is a "nibble" for any runner down in the weights which can handle the ground.
In Sydney I'll probably have a go at those which I mentioned in my post(just got Snitzel up in SR4 1:40pm EST) and I intend to "play it up" on Court's In Session later in the day.....give 'em strength!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I had all the place-getters in my box first4(paid $3648.10 in NSW) but as I stood-out Court's In Session and Dance Hero, no return.....that's the way it goes. Court's In Session will be worth following so we will recoup our outlay.
Any keen form students have anything to say about the ride on Court's In Session in the last 100 metres?
I'll be studying this race with great interest into the wee small hours of Sunday morning.
Gaz, did you do OK?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, the "class" horses continue to perform at optimum level and there is no reason why they should not keep doing so into the future:
Sydney: 2 winners - Snitzel($2.1w$1.3pl), Lotteria($2.8w$1.6pl), Media, Prince Frederick and Danni Martine disappointed as did Court's In Session although I may say more about him later on. Dizelle($1.60pl) ran well and will pay to follow and what about Dance Hero.....?
Melb: 1 winner - Lad Of The Manor($8.6w$2.4pl) from two runners.
Overall, not too bad a day but it could have been better.......with a bit of luck!
There's always another day.
*all divs quoted are NSWTAB.

Cheers.

[gazman]

hey xanadu ,,any thoughts for the start of the spring lead up.any classy ones that you think might slip by the radar,look forward to your thoughts...
cheers..........gaz..............

[xanadu]

g'day gaz,

in answer to your question, no, I don't have a "stable" which I select then follow religiously. I assess the form for every meeting each day and make my own determination if there is a "class" horse(s) which may have been overlooked by the general racing public and which may provide me with a "value" bet.
Today for example, I isolated two prospects:
SR2 1 Men At Work 2nd $1.50pl NSW
MR8 7 Party Pie, I am a bit concerned about the state of the track in Melb, so I will monitor if it is too "cut-up" by the time the last race is run.
One point though, I do not necessarily concentrate on metropolitan meetings as there are numerous runners at the provincials which "slide under the radar" during the week at these venues. We just have to remain alert and be patient for these opportunities to appear. Investing in the ratio of 1x5 allows me to win although my selection doesn't salute first.
Hope ya win a motza!

Cheers.

[tarbs]

makybe diva....

[xanadu]

Certainly, Makybe Diva is in the "champion" class and must be undeniably the best staying mare that we have seen. Considering that she won over the 1400m today first-up just makes her deeds the more meritorious.
Anyone agree/disagree?

Cheers.

[Sportz]

Didn't see or hear the race unfortunately. Did she win easily?

And was Regal Roller disappointing, or was she just too good?

[gazman]

hey xanadu,,,,,i think your right on the money there about that girl,i thought that price was unders but i doubt we'll see that price again. great to see and good for the pools of the future spring races............
i was lucky enough to be at the cox plate the day bonecrusher busted our waverly star heart,it was one of the greatest sporting events i've seen,,,but i wish i could see this horse race..........
cheers...........gaz.........hey sportz at the 150 mark it was put down your glasses but he ran well..................

[xanadu]

G'day,

"Class" horses running today are:
11:50a.mEST New Zealand R5 1 Distinctly Secret
12:25a.m.EST Balaklava R2 2 Redoubtable
4:25p.m.EST Wyong R7 3 Wild Queen
We'll see how they go.
Good luck

[Sportz]

Hope you didn't back Distinctly Secret. It's been running around over there for ages!!!

[saratoga samchaz]

First of all, you nutty Aussies, it's autumn coming not spring! What have you guys been doing, hibernating? LOL!

Hey Sportz, TOMMIFRANCS is in today. Ya gonna back her?

He'll be short price for sure. Likes the heavy going, but might not run down Ilbach on the lead and 3 for 3 on the hy. Tommi sure is consistent, but I'll have to see the price on him and how the track is playing. If speed is holding, I'll be on Ilbach.

[xanadu]

You don't think he has one more good run in him? I think that he may be able score at least one more win at nice odds and I intend to be on him.
I went against my usual edict of not backing a 3kg apprentice on a topweight but this rider was a 4kg boy! I just thought that the horse's "class" would get him home. Did you see the race......the ride was a "barry crocker?"

Cheers.

[xanadu]

G'day saratoga,

Well you've seen Alinghi and I am sure that you are impressed but have you read about and seen videos of our equine princess-Makybe Diva?
Do you think that she compares to some of your "champion" mares?
I am interested in your observations.

Cheers

[xanadu]

Well Class definitely rules in the long-run,

I hope that "true believers" profited from the win of :
Zingam Kembla race6 WON $1.80 $1.30plNSW
sure, not a great price, but, it showed that following "class" horses which are expertly placed, the average punter has a reasonable chance of making a profit during the Spring carnival.
There will be numerous chances for the astute punter to profit from similar opportunities during the next few months.

Cheers,

[xanadu]

saratoga, yoyama!..as Kramer would say.
Have you noticed that "class" horses continue to win at good odds....it's just a matter of being aware when they are due to win.
Remain vigilant and you will definitely select profitable opportunities.

Yoyama!

[xanadu]

Well the big day has now arrived and there are many, many class horses competing. The only trouble is that there are several prospects in each race competing against each other but then, good odds should be assured so there are prospects for a profitable day.
Is the "Carry On Cutie" fan club "cashed up" today? She certainly appears to have very good prospects even allowing for the awkward barrier- I like her as long as she lives up to her potential. Do fans of hers think she has "come up" this preparation or is she about to make amends for her indifferent form so far this preparation? I'd like to get your opinion.
We'll find out later today.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Sportz,
You doubted the class of this old marvel!
Since we last spoke this 7YO has finished 3rd on 14.9.05 and today ran second to the potentially great horse, Xcellent, paying $7.70plNSW. As I said in my post at the time he has/had at least one more great run in him. His only problem was to run into a horse which is potentially verging on greatness!
I said that I would be on him and I was! He didn't win but the place dividend he paid sure repaid the faith I had in him. Did you notice the change of jockey in the last two runs? He is just about old enough to vote now so we will have to see what connections have in store for him considering that he is a gelding.
As I keep emphasising, class horses will continue to overcome any obstacle put in their way even when facts and figures suggest they have little or no chance.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

With the barrier draw now completed and current betting markets initialized it is time to look for value for the true "class" horse(s) in this field.
After my initial appraisal of runners giving consideration to their barrier draws, I believe there are now only 4 or 5 true "class" horses running which have a realistic chance.
In the next few days I will be eliminating some runners to eventually arrive at what I think are the true winning chances, however, I will include some others in the hope of getting the first four.
Anyone have their own thoughts?
Looking forward to your opinions.
Remember!....this is the iconic "class" race of the year....pretenders usually do not win!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Class horses in the Cox Plate are:
Makybe Diva....champion mare
Lad Of the Manor....impeccable record at the Valley
Xcellent...potential superstar...BUT...as I continue my form analysis, I am having misgivings about his ability to handle the MV circuit, particularly from his barrier. His wins in NZ appeared to be on wider tracks, not particularly similar to M Valley or Randwick and Flemington but I am just taking a cautious look at his prospects on this "specialists" track.
I will be immersed in more form study in an effort to work through these puzzles before I make my final judgments.
In the end "class" will differentiate the true chances from the pretenders.
Cheers.

[timothy]

Xanadu,

Note Xcellent's last two wins were at Hastings which is a tight track of only 1700m. Certainly not Flemington or Randwick:


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Hastings Racecourse
http://www.racenz.com/images/line_mcr.gif </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=4 rowSpan=2>http://www.racenz.com/images/trans.gif </TD><TD vAlign=top width="100%">http://www.racenz.com/images/trans.gif </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="100%">Located in Hastings.

Runners drawn wide at 800m, 1000m and 1600m are disadvantaged unless they are particularly good starters. Other starting points suit most runners in all conditions.
http://www.racenz.com/UploadedFiles/Track/photo/hastings%5Flrg%2Egif
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[xanadu]

timothy- good point but are you seriously trying to tell me that the two tracks have any other similiarities other than what you highlighted?
Moonee Valley with it's special surface and camber does not suit all horses.
I'm sorry mate but to compare the two is like comparing cheese to chalk.
Hey, I like Xcellent, I believe he may be the next champion in waiting, ready to assume the crown but I have reservations regarding his first run at this track under the immense pressure which this race generates.

Cheers.

[timothy]

Easy on Xanadu, I did not at all say it was like MV. My point was that it is not a "big, wide track similar to Flemington or Randwick" which is what you said.

The circumference is almost indentical to the Valley and it won each race in large fields coming from a long way back but that is all. We all know the Valley is unique with its shape, surface etc.

[xanadu]

Again mate, you make a good point and it will only be determined on Saturday when the "class" horses "strut" their stuff.
Whatever I back, I'll certainly "save" on Xcellent as I have backed him in all of his recents starts so he is a favourite of mine.
What about you mate, do you think that he can measure up at his first attempt on this "specialists" circuit?

Cheers.

[timothy]

OK Xanadu, as you asked IMO the horses that can win:

Makybe Diva
Lad of the Manor
Super Kid
Greys Inn
Xcellent
God's Own (still deciding)

[xanadu]

Yeah, God's Own certainly won in incredible style but can he step up in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the Cox Plate.....there is nowhere to hide for those runners which are a bit immature or just feeling the pinch with the incredible sectionals required to even stay in touch with these classy runners.
It is a true test of will and constitution and many will fall by the wayside...that is why I believe that Fields Of Omagh may handle the pressure as he has "done it all before." Definitely put him in your exotics.

Cheers.

[timothy]

Agree with that and is why I have a big ? beside God's Own.

My placegetter possibilities are a lot wider and 3yo's can run into third with their light weights e.g. Viscount in the mix with the prize fighters of Sunline and Northerly a few years ago. Suspect winning is a different story.
Fields could do it but taking the risk - he is 8 now ad although lightly raced and going very well I'm risking him.
To me Super Kid is at very good odds - his runs here have been very good. Gee the Valley atmosphere won't worry him - Honkers prepares you for that. Same with Greys Inn just to a slightly lesser extent on all above fronts.

[xanadu]

Yeah, good points, although in my case I have a perceived bias against the international "raiders" because usually they cannot handle the "hit and run" preparation when incredible pressure is applied in the big races by our local "champs."
The Godolphins packed up and left this week because the demands were just too much so the "raiders" have to overcome this barrier(N.B. not unlike our well performed runners in honkers and Singapore in recent years), I suppose that if they are good enough they can overcome anything put in front of them.
However, when in doubt, stick with ...."CLASS"....and that definitely means Makybe Diva and some other locals.

Cheers.

[timothy]

ok Xanadu: show us your cards - who are the "Some other locals"?

[xanadu]

Yeah timothy,

As per my earlier posts I will stick with these runners even though it has rained. I will be monitoring the earlier races to see if there are any problems with the track and I may add God's Own and maybe Desert War(apparently there has been a big "push" for him this morning). Can he handle the extra distance? If I don't get back to you before race jump I will stick with 2,6,8 and 10. Subject to the state of the track I may include 5 and 13 and maybe delete Xcellent-it all depends on the weather between now and race-time. Of course Xcellent is not a "local" - I thought I'd emphasise this to ensure that some pedantic person obsessed with trivialities doesn't "pounce."

Cheers.

[xanadu]

What a class horse....what a champion! Probably no argument that she is the best staying mare to have raced in this country. We will leave any disagreement(s) whether she is the greatest mare to have ever raced at any distance, to another day.
While Makybe deserves all the accolades which she is receiving just give a thought to that other "class" horse that I highlighted in an earlier thread.....Fields Of Omagh(3rd). He has run in a number of Cox Plates now and has been victorious once and raced respectably in each that he competed.
My trifecta and first four dividend aspirations were dashed by an incredible run by the somewhat under-estimated mare, Lotteria.
Any astute punters get Lotteria in their trifectas and if so, how did you rate her class in comparison to other runners?

Cheers.

[Duritz]

Xanadu class to me means what level a horse can successfully contest. A maiden winner can obviously handle the class (or pressure) of a maiden. Usually they can handle more, too. That is of course subjective. Makybe Diva can handle the pressure of any class race on this planet. To me, class is their level. You assess what that is (often it is better than where they are, especially when they are lightly raced) and if they are in their right "class" when they are entered, you then assess their chances against the opposition given the prevailing conditions. Class is not the "defining factor in the selection process", more it is a method of appraising a horse's top level, what it can handle and what it cannot. When a horse is outclassed, it doesn't run a close 2nd, it gets thrashed. Why? Because it could not absorb the pressure involved in racing in that field. If a horse runs 2nd, it handled the pressure, it just ran into another who also handled it but ran faster on the day. So, use "class" to define a horse's ability, to quantify it. If you like, you can quantify it in terms of saying "he's a class 1 horse" or "she's an open class mare" etc, and keep your own records of what you think their class is. Then, when a horse is out of it's class, don't back it, and if it's in it's class, assess it's chances.

Or, you can use other methods to define it's class. As people know, I use ratings to do that. That's my personal choice. However, the important thing to remember is to not go nuts obsessing about one aspect. Class defines what level they can race in, that's what it's for.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Class is it the defining factor?

Lets throw form out the window for a moment and concentrate on prizemoney only.
There are horses that fail miserably (recently) that have the inherent class to win at cricket score odds.

It's a long time between drinks, but you get some huge overs backing the top three by prizemoney when they are over 10/1.

Sydney Race 9 Majestic Feeling
top rated by API
Hiddeous form
First up from a spell
Paid $57.10 and $11.60

Surely $57.10 was overs.

Morphettville Race 2 Magical Spirit
Ranked equal third by API
Woeful form
Paid $70.50 and $10.80

Again huge overs based on prizemoney alone.

Morphettville Race 8 Umaquest
Top rated by API
First up from a spell
$11.40 and $2.90

Also had Cee Vee Austrax (old warrior) at the trots $42.30 and Flashing Red (top class horse) at $9.20

One must be selective and only bet when there are good overs to be had, but it certainly is food for thought.

Some horses win at big odds with no guide at all, but many win and their inherent class means that they have the potential to upset the applecart.

They don't win often enough to warrant backing them all, but when I see huge odds (overs) about these horses, I've just gotta have a go.

[xanadu]

Duritz, at last a bit of debate in respect of this subject. When I posted my initial thoughts I wished to engender some worthwhile diversity of opinions and this now appears to be happening. The points you make are valid and I, to some extent, have similar views. The point behind my initial post was that in races(NB. at all levels, ie. maidens open handicaps etc) there are specific class differentials between the runners contesting any particular race, meaning that some runners are capable of progressing and others have no real future prospects. The astute punters' task is to find those runners which are running "out of their class" in relation to other horses and this may provide a suitable betting opportunity. eg. a Cranbourne C3 race may have a runner which ran 3rd in a C4 race beaten by a relatively small margin at another country track. The punter has to determine whether there was merit in this run and whether he/she may have a possible "class" edge in today's race. It's all relative and requires some ability to determine the differentials in each class category, eg. the winner of a Class3 may be "head and shoulders " above runners in a Class4 on the same program "classwise". These are the horses which quickly work their way through their classes and astute punters may be able to benefit. eg. how many times have we heard a commentator declare "that was a good form race?" What he/she is getting at is that there are a number of class horses which are capable of going forward and competing competitively against stronger opposition, perhaps at good prices.
I think your other points reiterate what I was getting at in my original post.
Chrome Prince- interesting aspect that you have raised, I'll watch with interest.
During the week when I am at a particular venue and have not done the form in any great detail, I will wager utilising, in particular, the class angle and I can assure you that it provides a very profitable betting medium. Sure, there is skill involved to identify the "value" runners but the information is there for all punters to digest if they are interested.
So yes, I will remain "obsessed" with this particular aspect of form evaluation as unless the whole pattern of racing were to change overnight there will always be runners which have an inherent "class" advantage over their opponents.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

MR8 4:30p.m.EST proved to be a profitable race for followers of "class" horses:
No1 Cape Of Good Hope 3rd - international superstar whose only problem is to have run into an absolute champion Silent Witness,in many of it's big race starts. I was particularly impressed with this horse's performance and will definitely be following his progress.NB. Prebble came back from honkers to pilot him-surely a good guide to punters!
No2 Barely A Moment 2nd($4.5plNSW) I was on this one and he definitely lived up to his reputation with his courageous performance to finish 2nd. A true Group 1 horse which should race well for the rest of his campaign.
I keep saying it and these topliners keep confirming it.....stick with the CLASS!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Class horse......probably the best stayer we have ever seen in our lifetimes.
Comparisons are now being made between this champion mare and the "immortal" Phar Lap......did he win three Melbourne Cups.....?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Chrome Prince- you are definitely dealing with a loser by defining horses' class by evaluating their class as determined by their prizemoney won compared to race starts etc...
There have been innumerable systems over the years based on similar fallacies......they all lose in the short-term(not long-term).
How many maiden races these days pay anything up to $50,000 to the winner, yet, all the winner had to do was to defeat a number of other inferior animals? Subsequently, this aspect gives a distorted view of the horse's ability, even though it only beat a field of plodders racing for exaggerated prizemoney.
Sure, have a go when you think that the odds are too attractive to ignore but the best of luck to you in the long run.

Cheers.

[ijuandaQLD]

xanadu no offense mate but u cant compare the two.....all we know is they are the two greatest we have ever seen...lee freedman said none of us bar the youngest kid on track would see one better well that was very similar to phar lap.....its taken us 75 years to find our next champion it will take us another 75 to find the next after HER.... but they were both greatest of their eras

[xanadu]

Yeah, I certainly wasn't trying to diminish the efforts of the "immortal" but just emphasising the fact that Makybe's effort is possibly never to be repeated in our lifetimes.
I once started a thread dealing with this very issue - that we cannot and should not compare champions from different eras and we should just allow history to unfold.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Now that the dust has settled on the incredible Melbourne Spring Carnival it is time to appreciate the fact that Makybe Diva was always the "class" horse of the field. Various ratings officianadoes expressed their views that "on figures" the mighty mare couldn't win!
As I have constantly asserted in this thread, "class" horses will constantly defy facts and figures and get the money at surprisingly good odds.
Don't forget....racing continues and there are innumerable horses out there in the city and the provincials which are basically running with a class advantage and when you find one(eg.MR5 19.11.05 No5 Forest Spy $9.5w$2.8plNSW) you should unload bigtime. In that race the favourite, Rokocoko was primarily the product of media hype....it had won a 1400m 4 & 5yo Rst-Ly and it was stepping up to open company today....definitely a dubious bet!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Today we have one winner so far:
MR6 13 Redoubtable $5.1w$1.9plNSW
but make sure you are on :
SR5 2 Smart Maxie
Remember to invest in the ratio of 1x5.
All the best.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well we didn't win but we survive to invest further:
MR No2 Smart Maxie 2nd $1.9plNSW
POT = 6 units invested and 9.5 units returned = 9.5/6.0 x 100 = 15.83%
the point here is that although backing a loser(2nd) we have profited and have funds to invest on future races.
The benefit of a relatively conservative approach to your wagering is obvious.

Cheers.

[Imagele]

Today we have one winner so far:
MR6 13 Redoubtable $5.1w$1.9plNSW
but make sure you are on :
SR5 2 Smart Maxie
Remember to invest in the ratio of 1x5.
All the best.

Cheers.
G'day Xanadu
Wasn't Redoutable a maiden racing in a sat. metro. open hcp.
Interested to know how you defined he had the class for the race.

[xanadu]

Yeah, no problem Imagele,

As outlined in my original post, if you took the time to actually read it, I outlined the fact that any horse with a place record of > 80% warranted further scrutiny as to it's winning prospects.
I hope this has has clarified this point for you.

Cheers.

[Imagele]

Better jump in again quick before I am caught out.
Just realised it was a restricted class race.
Won by a maiden just the same.

[xanadu]

No problems mate!
We all know that it is a very tough game.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I hope that true believers of the class factor backed up on :
Redoubtable(MR5 $5.5W 2.0plNSW) which followed on from it's win last start when prior to that it was arguably regarded as Australia's best maiden.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

With the autumn carnivals in both Sydney and Melbourne well and truly upon us it is again an opportune time to consider the "class" horses which may figure prominently in this season's major races(and for that matter, the many minor races leading up to the classics).
Remember, as proven in the Spring, class horses may not necessarily display their true abilities in lead-up races but on the day they are virtually invincible..e.g. Distinctly Secret in NZ late last year!
Do not listen to media hype about any particular horse and follow your own judgement and you will be a lot better off!


Cheers.

[xanadu]

On Saturday 18.2.06 I thought there were two standouts in Sydney for the day:
SR6 1 Mnemosyne 4th (did anyone else have reservations regarding the ride?)
SR9 2 Men At Work WON($4.00w$1.90plNSW)
Also in Melbourne:
MR7 2 Undue 3rd ( $2.70plNSW)
MR7 3 Glamour Puss 4th
MR711Rewaaya 2nd ( $1.60plNSW)
Investing in the ratio of 1x5 returned a respectable POT and if astute punters followed this betting approach then this season's punting should return an ongoing profit/income stream.

Cheers.

[La Mer]

With the autumn carnivals in both Sydney and Melbourne well and truly upon us it is again an opportune time to consider the "class" horses which may figure prominently in this season's major races(and for that matter, the many minor races leading up to the classics).
Remember, as proven in the Spring, class horses may not necessarily display their true abilities in lead-up races but on the day they are virtually invincible..e.g. Distinctly Secret in NZ late last year! Cheers.

The class horses came good again today, well as least one of them did. Mornington race 7 the Hareeba Sprint - two horses stood out on class Hollow Bullet & Ellicorsam. Hollow Bullet I couldn't have as while is has won about $1.5mil it was first-up having come off a very bad prep last start when it has seven runs without winning. OTOH, Ellicorsam, having its second start for the Freedman stable, is a Group 2 winner in Perth having won over $500,000 & was racing at its pet distance of 1200m (5 wins from 7 starts) today. Beautiful & at $7.50 top fluc it don't get any better!! :-)

[crash]

So the simple theory is to just back the best class horse 1x5 ew. in a race and we are forever in clover ?

So what are the rock solid rules for working out the above? Do we go on average prize money, SR or our or someone else's idea of a runners 'potential' ? Or, is it some sort of combo of the three [or more requirements] that has solid rules?
Except for those races where the Class runner is obvious, if there is no solid rules to define the class runner, we are back to making subjective decisions about class and which runner is the best class in a race.

These are serious questions, I'm not trying to take the micky here, just trying to define and get my head around what is on the surface a great idea, but below the surface seems very vague and loose.

Example of vague and loose: How could anyone say before the race [considering the standard of runners involved] MR711 Rewaaya
2nd ( $1.60plNSW) was the class horse of the race to back? When it comes to Stakes, Group and any other high class races with many classy horses running, we are back to good old fashioned personal preferences and tipping.

The Aust. stakes result only proves [finally] Rewaaya could hold his head up in that class of race. Before the race that was an unknown even to the trainer who said the race was it's big test of class. We can't make money on Class back-fitting.

[crash]

La Mer,

You could have made the 'class' claim for a couple of other runners in that race if the result had been different. Your blatantly back-fitting class.
Race 8 was another listed race. What happened to the 'class' runners?
Ulysses is a good horse but others in the race had arguably better class claims. It's so easy to point the finger after a race and say the class horse won.

[crash]

Also La Mer, there was a very good reason NOT to back Ellicorsam at Monington [and it's odds reflected that], as anyone familiar with it's lay-out would tell you -the barrier for the distance. A Shocker and more good luck and top riding was involved in the win than just class or distance specialist. Con's Army has the claim for distance AND track, not Ellicorsam. Sure it had the class claim but could have easily lost it due to barrier draw. I thought it's SP was unders all things considered. Of course after the race it's all so easy to claim this and that.

How about some [future] prediction for Saturday based on 'class':-)

Quote from first post in this thread: "Horses with a win strike rate of 20-25% and an overall place percentage of >80%are generally deemed to be class horses. Generally, horses with this proven consistency ratio can be expected to perform similarly in the future". End quote.

A wonderful way to determine 'class', but with all the good races coming up, that describes a large % of the runners !!

[topsy99]

ellicorsam, ulysses and precise timing had all won or placed in listed company within the past 3 starts.

kountethecash i think had not placed at this level since february last year
i have no argument with class of the horses that won.

[crash]

Either have I topsy but boy, the cherry picking going on with back-fitting for the class winner in this thread is spectacular.

For ever back-fitted class horse winning that has been mentioned, I'll give you 10 cherry picked back-fitted class horses that we would have lost on. Another worn quote here is 'the class horse winning in 'elite' company' that should have been backed.
Can I ask who the 'elite' 'horses where that the [obvious?] 'class horse' was running against? Er... other class horses perhaps?

A little intellectual challenge regarding punting reality doesn't go astray and shouldn't be confused with disagreeing for the sake of it [a handy accusation when houses made of cards fall to the ground].

[topsy99]

i know the feeling as what happened yesterday doesnt always happen.
for example petite oiseau was the launceston cup favorite and placed group 3 in the hobart cup last start.
i saw it run the start before when it finished (fourth i think) it was unable to take a run when offered and appeared lack dash.
i disregarded it yesterday on that count and its price was unrealistic.

punting is always a question of being right now and again and hope that you come out in front.

backfitting is one way of proving your ideas but when practised ahead e.g. on todays racing it is not so easy as so many horses may fit the profile.
recent placings in listed or group racing and a good price is probably the best i can do.
however i did back the 3 horses mentioned (for a change).
i have nothing at all today sir craiglee is the only listed horse running at canterbury and hasnt won since the cows came home.
it would be a lost cause trying to backfit sir craiglee

[slowman]

good to see the brake slipped a few pills in you drink there crash,you were starting to get all lippy again.....................

[crash]

Mogadons mate. There great. Just add coke and knock em down! Does the trick every time.

[xanadu]

What!

We have some disbelievers?

To clarify my original post, I use this purely as a culling process whereby I highlight likely candidates, particularly those at attractive odds.
eg. Sat11.3.06 - 7 selections for 1 winner, Sojustrememberthis, WON, $11.60w$3.70pl.
Darci Brahma(2nd$1.70pl)
Shania Dane(unp)
Star Mystic(3rd$4.60pl)
Lad Of The Manor(unp)
Precious Future(unp)
Miss Andretti(unp)*do not forget this mare as she has definite potential and has been running respectable races against the best. There may may be a consolation race for her to pay for expenses.
So, as you can see, by investing in my recommended ratio of 1x5 you would have shown a healthy profit.
Remember, though, that I have a flexible approach to this method and will include horses which may have not have had 10 race starts(usually one of my criteria), if I believe they have potential, e.g Reewaya(6starts).
N.B. I usually do not consider any runner which has not had at least 10 starts as I believe that this indicates the horse has had at least two preparations and has shown it can handle first-up racing. I will relax this if, as stated above, I believe this horse may be going places.

Cheers.

[slowman]

hey there xan............... dont go razzing him up i think he's allready standing on the naughty spot.........................

[xanadu]

Interesting day today:
SR2 6 Palabiro
SR6 2 Radetzky March
4 Malcolm
SR7 2 Primus
3 Headturner
SR8 2 Loftily
MR7 7 Zipping
MR8 1 Serenade Rose
MR9 5 Sojustrememberthis
Others to keep an eye on are:
SR3 7 Oh Oklahama
SR8 5 Tactfully
SR9 3 Coronga
11 Spyzaim
Good luck and let's pray that the fearsome forum curse does not spoil our day. Remember, invest in the ratio of 1x5.
Please note that whilst this thread is title:"class....." I am not suggesting that horses selected are necessarily champions-rather, I am highlighting promising horses which are racing against other competitors of their own, if not inferior "class" and that is where we may secure some value bets.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

SR6 2 Ratetzky March, broke through the barrier and was passed fit to run. No problem, but I saw another instance where a horse was (apparently) injured in a minor manner but allowed to run.
Surprise.....surprise....after the run, this horse was found to have suffered an injury which should have warranted it being withdrawn at the barrier.
As I have stated in another post, "when in doubt -they are out!"
......I look forward to other punters' views.

Cheers

[xanadu]

No excuses-a mixed day but we are looking for the long-term which will definitely prove profitable.
So, for the true believers we will definitely show a profit over the 12 monthly period, so stay with this approach.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

SR7 No1 Eremein ($2.5w 1.3plNSW) finished strongly to win in an incredible photo-finish!
Make no mistake this horse may possess the appropriate class to win bigger races this Spring. It may pay to follow!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I think I witnessed a potential class runner today:
MR 6 1 Miss Mooney Mooney WON $2.0w $1.2plNSW
Maybe Lee Freedman can get the best out of this potential champion as he did with Makybe Diva!
It puts more interest into the upcoming Spring carnival.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

MR6 6 Miss Andretti
is she the runner with the most class in today's Gp1 race?
Undeniably, there are some topline runners in the Lightning but do they possess the required "touch of class" to compete and win at this level?
Many will be found wanting at the business end of today's race when the true "class" horses are thundering home.
That is why I will be on Miss Andretti.

Cheers.
3:33p.m.EST,
WON $2.5w$1.3plNSW,
What an absolutely fantastic win by an absolute superstar, ridden a masterful race by a jockey at the top of his game!
This mare may be going overseas in the near future so the "world may be her oyster!"
Good luck to all connections!

[crash]

Yep, a great run by MA in a record 53.9 sec. and sure, sticking with top class will find a lot of winners [but often not a lot of profit], but I'm happy to pocket the place money I made [3.60p] backing Ticklish 1x4 ew instead of the starvation win payout on MA.

Problem with class is it stands out like a sore thumb [everyones on it] but it often gets beaten because most Aust. races are handicaps and weight is a great equalizer. I'll always be looking at what can beat the class horse in any race and there were a few, obviously the class horses beaten in earlier races at MV today.

It's easy to cherry-pick memory for class horses that have won [usually at poor odds], but a heap of em' don't win either [usually when your moneys on them] for all sorts of reasons because that's racing I guess.

To me, "The Defining Factor In The Selection Process?", will always be 'bet value', not class.

[Chrome Prince]

To me, "The Defining Factor In The Selection Process?", will always be 'bet value', not class.

Spot on ;)

[xanadu]

You make a good point crash when you say that most "class" horses are identified by the general betting public therefore the dividends can be a bit cramped sometimes.
However, I emphasise that the astute punter, if they do their form study can identify runners in Class1,2,3-6 etc generally at very attractive odds which are overlooked by the "pundits" thereby presenting very attractive betting opportunities for the alert investor.
I must disagree with your assertion that "class" stands out like "a sore thumb" as in my experience most punters at most venues do not appreciate the difference between Cl6 and open company or being beaten 6len in a Cl1 and running 2nd in a class4 race beaten 0.2len.
Good to speak to you.

Cheers.

[crash]

xanadu,

I don't think there was anything 'astute' about accepting the odds on MA today. Sure she won, but it was a bad value bet considering the competition.

'Any price a winner' is flawed punting I think.

[xanadu]

crash, CP:

Aren't we on the same side........ie. hard-nosed punters trying to extract a profit from our punting, which, if you view my other threads today would confirm that I have had a very "interesting" ie. profitable day.
To explain my position....if the astute punter identifies a potential "class" runner currently paying overs does that not fit in with your justified stance that value is the over-riding factor?
Invariably, if the "class" runner is not identified by the general betting public doesn't that provide opportunities for the astute investor to take advantage...just like the ASX, my other pastime.
In my opinion they complement each other but many of the general betting public cannot identify this and therefore we "value" or "percentage" punters find a way to get an edge.
The fact that I am a form student and identified this runner as practically unbeatable(IMO) then how do you know that I did not secure "value" odds with the plethora of betting agencies available-I only quote NSW divs because I reside in this "premier" state(only joking!).

Cheers.

[Spartacus]

are you telling me that backing an unknown kiwi sprinter is smarter than backing the best sprinter in australia around a corner, crash

by the way i think $5 @ 3.20 (Sportingbet) beats 1x4 @3.60

i think EVEN MORE supposedly 'value' runners get beaten down the track than true 'CLASS' horses get beaten

i think a win is a win is a win, isn't it?

they're all 'value' as long as they get up

[Chrome Prince]

Interesting point of view, I have to agree with both views in a way.

The obvious class runners are more often than not poor value.
The apparent "overs" horses are often lacking in performance.

The firmers win and the drifters lose overall in the scheme of things.
The problem being, selecting the value class horses and avoiding horses that are unders.

I recently did an exercise in comparing the drifters and firmers which were favourite at fixed odds.

All horses returned $317.40 out of 322 possible bets.
Drifters returned $139.75 out of 177 possible bets.
Firmers returned $177.65 out of 145 possible bets.

Knowing the movements or anticipating them in advance is quite a difficult task, but overall it can be done to advantage.

[crash]

are you telling me that backing an unknown kiwi sprinter is smarter than backing the best sprinter in Australia around a corner, crash

by the way i think $5 @ 3.20 (Sportingbet) beats 1x4 @3.60

i think EVEN MORE supposedly 'value' runners get beaten down the track than true 'CLASS' horses get beaten

i think a win is a win is a win, isn't it?

they're all 'value' as long as they get up

That 'unknown' kiwi sprinter was a 1000m specialist winning in NZ in low 54's [3 times] on NZ tracks with up to 57kg on board, which if anyone with access to a decent form service would have known. The fastest 1000m [until the Lightening] of any of the runners in the race on Sat.

2 weeks ago Ticklish finished very close up to Darci Brahma in the 1200m [not her distance] G1 Telegraph stakes. At 20/1 in a 1000m event her odds were a massive overlay as just look at the class she beat home! Unlucky not to have won the Lightning, but MA produced an incredible 53.9 sec. track record. At 20/1 and the light weight Ticklish was the biggest overlay in the race [because she was 'unknown'] and was a great e/w bet :-)

[Spartacus]

yeah, but they time them with a stopwatch over there don't they ?

and no, i don't have access to a decent form service (i'm just a humble teacher) but i can read a paper - times don't always translate (on this occasion they happened to)

by the way, Miss Mario clocked 57.22 (they actually time them using reliable equipment over here or the tracks are measured properly anyway) not 54!

Crash, i AM impressed with your outsider (would've put been good 'value' in the summer comp) and would have loved to had him as my third in my tri
Had the first two with VDF
Maybe you could have had the trifecta in my comp

i'll be expecting your tips next week!

[crash]

[QUOTE=Spartacus]yeah, but they time them with a stopwatch over there don't they ?
QUOTE]

LOL !

[Spartacus]

don't keep those longshots all to yourself now, crash

i need a good one or two for next week

the kids are taking me to the Orr Stakes
(they're in the clip clop club)

[crash]

I'll have to share a bit of homework to make sure you collect a few pennies from something then.

[xanadu]

I notice that The Daily Telegraph now provides an icon in their raceform section showing whether a particular runner is rising/lowering in class from it's last start.
They are to be congratulated as this should prove to be an invaluable tool for punters in their form study and final selections.
Job well done fellas!

Cheers.

[crash]

Geez, they finally worked out what up/down in weight [mostly] means!

[xanadu]

Yeah crash,

It will be a helpful tool in punters' form-study.
Let's not be too cynical as it is a real attempt to improve the general punting public's knowledge and presumably assist in their attempt to back that elusive winner.

Cheers.