Red Hots

[xanadu]

There is a theory that instead of backing runners in order of market prices at the trots, punters should give consideration to backing runners at the inverse market prices.
To be more specific, punters should consider those runners at the fourth to sixth line of betting and work back.
Only back those runners which show a gradual reduction in price utilising skychannel facilities.
I'm talking about the 10-12/1 shots which flash home in the last 300 metres and invariably pay excellent place dividends.
We'll see how it goes.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Does anyone bet seriously on the "red hots" these days?
Sure, I, personally, have a wager when it suits me, but I am always wary of this particular betting medium.
During the week, there are numerous opportunities to have a bet but for the unwary, this is a potentially catastrophic betting proposition.
Anyone else have any thoughts on this matter?

Cheers.

[a4brianp]

After today at Harold Park inclined to agree with you. In all serious the pools at Harness racing have increased in last few months probably because of the tvn mess up and most meetings are covered now on home sky and people do like betting on races they can see.

[xanadu]

Yeah, there are a number of short priced favourites every meeting ....BUT....are they value and in the long-run, is it worth betting on this particular medium?
What about when a well-fancied runner inexplicably "breaks" and loses all chance of winning?
It happens all too often for the average punter to accept.
As far as turnover is concerned, shouldn't the authorities ensure that the betting public have confidence in the product?

Cheers.

[Oaksnaf]

With the system ive been using, backing short price favourites over the long run has turned into a disaster. Get a $1.20 favourite, a $1.50 favourite, a $1.30 favourite they all might win and thats 3 on the trot. But as soon as you have a loss, back to square one. You need a very high strike rate, and well 50% isn't good enough to make a profit. So i ditched the short price favourites, if i back them, its in the multi in a standout tri or exacta to get the value.

[xanadu]

Anybody out there have any "horror" stories where the driver has sat motionless while fast finishing "swoopers" have "swamped" his/her runner and eventually ensured that this/your runner has missed a place?
Looking forward to any similar occurrences.

Cheers.

[ijuandaQLD]

Today Xanadu...actually it wasnt the trots it was at hamilton race 6...i took a trifecta i boxed 4,6,8 and the race finished 8,6,9,4... the 4 was beat a nose and i swear the jockey just stopped riding.

[xanadu]

IjuandaQLD, yeah it's frustrating isn't it? A similar example occurred in Sydney on Saturday but luckily the horse still won. The apprentice on board was chasisted by a leading trainer about "dropping his hands" on the line.
Don't some of these riders realise the volume of money wagered on some of their mounts and the importance of the finishing order to exotic bettors?
It's a worry as all we punters ask is that the horse upon which we have wagered is given every chance and that includes riding the mount out to the line even if it can't win.
Oaksnaf- it seems that you have no trouble finding winners at the trots but as you said it is difficult to win in the longterm backing shortpriced runners.
Could I suggest you give consideration to having an all-up bet on your three runners, either for the win or the place. Each new bet starts a new sequence, eg. if you had 5 winning bets in a row and you were having a three-leg all up you would achieve 3 successful sequences and should return a respectable POT, eg 123, 234,345...you could take your original stake out and only all-up your winnings so the worst you can do is to at least break even. At least this gives you a bit of insurance when wagering in this manner.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

If anyone has any doubts about this industry just look at Harold Park Race4 today.....odds on favourite in small field ran third(NTD)......a true punters' minefield....say no more.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Does anyone agree that this industry is somewhat "tarnished" and warrants very close scrutiny from Federal officials?
I, personally, have stopped betting on this medium except for the occasional "certainty" bet(yeah...... right....... if there is such a thing!).
Speaking to other punters in the venues which I frequent I can assure you that the confidence of the betting public is very low.
Accordingly, shouldn't the State Govt hold an inquiry into what is happening in this "paradise" for some participants?
I'm looking forward to the opinions of other punters who wish to express their views and clear this industry of the stigma of "the red hots!"


Cheers.

[breadman]

WELL AFTER BEING IN THE INDUSTRY FOR A PERIOD OF 15 YEARS IT IS A BIT LIKE ANY FORM OF RACING. I DID AN APPRENTICESHIP FOR A MAJOR STABLE AT THAT TIME WHO HAS RECENTLY JUST CAME BACK INTO THE GAME. IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO WHO YOU KNOW AND HOW MUCH INSIDE INFORMATION YOU CAN GET. I WAS HAVING A GREAT TIME FOR THAT TIME BUT IN THE END IT WAS TOO HARD TO CONTINUE TO MAKE A LIVING IN TRAINING OR DRIVING. A LITTLE EXAMPLE WHEN ROWLEYALLA WON THE N.S.W DERBY IN ITS HEAT IT WAS A BEATEN ODDS ON FAV. I NEW THAT IT HAD MISSED 2 DAYS FAST WORK LEADING UP TO THE HEAT AND HENCE BACKED THE 2ND FAV WHO EVENTUALLY WON. WHEN THE FINAL CAME AROUND WELL WE GOT 5/1 ROWLEY WHILE VINNY KNIGHTS HORSE ANOTHER BART WAS A ODDS ON FAV. ROWLEY LED ALL THE WAY AND NEVER LOOKED LIKE GETTING BEATEN AND DID THE SAME A FEW WEEKS LATER IN QLD. AS FAR AS SITTING UP ON A HORSE, WHAT YOU HAVE TO REALISE IS THAT IF THAT HORSE HAS RAN CERTAIN SECTIONALS THERE IS MORE CHANCE OF IT WINNING BY SITTING UP ON IT THAN BEATING THE CRAP OUT OF IT THE DRIVERS KNOW HOW FAST THERE HORSES CAN GO (E.G WHAT MILE RATES THERE HORSE CAN RUN) SO THERE IS NO NEED TO USE THE WHIP AND THE STEWARDS MUST KNOW THIS BECAUSE THEY DONT GET CALLED IN VERY OFTEN. IT IS A VERY TOUCHY SUBJECT THOUGH AS THERE IS LOT MORE CHANCE OF HUMAN AND HORSE ERROR THAT CAN BEAT YOU WHERE AS EXAMPLE IF A HORSE GETS CHECKED IT CAN GO THE RAIL AND SAVE GROUND THEN GET AN INSIDE RUN. CANT DO THAT WITH A PACER EVEN WITH THE FAST LANE NOW IT IS VERY HARD TO RECOVER. GOT MORE TO SAY ON THIS AND IF ANYONE IS INTERESTED I DONT MIND ANSWERING QUESTIONS BUT DINNER IS READY AND I AM VERY HUNGRY LOL. SO HOPE THIS IS HELPFUL TO SOMEONE.

CHEERS

[a4brianp]

The sport of harness racing seems to be growing in popularity as is seen by just looking at the hits on my trot tip thread.I do concde that it has a prblem with its reputation of red hots.Seems to me that too many odds on pops getting rolled.This is the time of year when i go a bit quiet because of Sire stakes races which dish up a lot of short priced horses

[Chrome Prince]

It's simple really, you cannot back every short priced harness horse, galloper or greyhound, one has to be selective.

The reason the harness horses are so short is that they are more consistent (the favourites) than any other code.

One has to take into account race mapping and driver ability...

e.g. can this horse lead or will it get caught up on the rail?
can this horse win from the back?
what is this horse's main rivals and how strong are they?

Nothing can get around a poor drive or a galloper mid race, but they are called "red hots" because they go down at really short odds often.

This is often not the drivers fault, nor the horse's fault, but the betting public.

Sometimes it is the driver or horse's fault, in which case, you take note and never take short odds on that horse or driver until they redeem themselves.

When it's not a case of fault, but simply meeting a better horse in the race, the public got it wrong. Or overlooked better value or potential.

Although it's not an easy task, here is a formula I use for all codes, which does eliminate many false bets.

Take the strike rate and dividend for horses at this price and compare it to:

The drivers stats at the same price
The trainers stats at the same price
The horse's stats at the same price

Is there a glaring difference between the raw stats and this horse, trainer, driver combo, seperately and combined?

If so, let it pass.

If not, have a dip!

For example: we might have an odds on horse, let's say the strike rate for odds on is 65% (plucking a figure out of the air).

When the horse goes around at odds on, it wins 60% of the time.
When the trainer has a horse at odds on, it wins at 40% of the time.
When the driver has a horse at odds on, it wins 70% of the time.

When the combo are together, they win 65% of the time.

I'd have a go.

If it were:

When the horse goes around at odds on, it wins 30% of the time.
When the trainer has a horse at odds on, it wins at 50% of the time.
When the driver has a horse at odds on, it wins 40% of the time.

I'd let it pass.

Of course opposition and class are not factored in here, but it's a good guide to glaringly obvious poor value.

Someone made a post on here a long time ago regarding strike rate to prices - it didn't add up because an ingredient was missing....the horse's strike rate is not significant in the races it was not favoured in. The public did not give it a chance of winning, therefore for price purposes, it's performance at that price was insignificant to today's race.

It's strike rate at a favoured price IS significant.

Some horses continue to lose, some continue to win - regardless of the market.

Here's an example that sticks in my mind - Shania Dane

Shania Dane had obviously shown a great deal of ability, but had failed to break through for a while in good company.

The horse won at 50/1 in a G2 at Rosehill and ever since that time was well backed at each start, without breaking through or actually winning. Because she ran some very good placings, punters kept backing her to under the odds - but the bottom line is that she didn't actually win at anywhere near the strike rate of odds.

She won a Group2 and Group3, but look what happened when she stepped up to G1 level....

PLACING LEVEL ODDS
3/8 G1 $11
3/14 G1 $10
5/9 G1 $5
3/15 G1 $4.5F
3/16 G1 $5
5/13 G1 $3.75F
2/8 G1 $3.5F

The horse went around well fancied at least 5 times at a level she'd never won at.

Even al???ing for the two starts @10/1 and 11/1, the horse's average odds was $6.10 at a level she had not won at.

But when fancied it even looks worse - average odds $4.35!!!

Easy to say in retrospect, but she was favourite on at least three occasions and shouldn't have been.

Her strike rate was 0 at Grp 1 level!

P.S. I know it's not harness, but the theory remains the same.

[wesmip1]

Top Post Chrome.

I couldn't agree more.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

Been also thinking a great deal about this topic over the last few days while working on my car engine (great time to think).

Anyway, it struck me that when betting on horses with a greater than 50% chance of taking out the race, sometimes up to 95%, then one wants to remove all doubt.

Of course not all horses will win, but one can remove a lot of losers.

Is there any doubt over the jockey, going, distance, days break / first up?
Has the horse won in this class or higher before - (watch this one, horses that have consistently won higher grade races, are NOT a good bet at odds on, there is a reason why the horse is not competeing at it's normal level).

Is the horse proven to carry the weight?

All this thinking also relates back to the "red hots".

I went back through some results, and it's amazing that if one is clinically judgemental, one can remove a lot of horses and be left with some very good odds on bets.

food for thought.

[xanadu]

Yeah CP, in relation to your post13, it provides good food for thought.
I will always listen to the opinions of other punters as the only day we stop learning(or eliminating our own ingrained biases) is our last day on earth.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Bankstown R3....well!......,

If anyone needed to be alerted to the monetary disadvantages of betting on the "red hots" then this race should confirm their reticence:
"red hot" fav quickly tails out last at least 1/4 to 1/2 lap behind the other runners.
Need I say any more.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Does anyone really bet on the "red hots" these days?
With the recent revelations that even prominent professional punters have abandoned this betting medium then surely the officials should finally take action to alleviate the lack of confidence of the betting public!
Maybe it is time for the government to take control and appoint an ICAC officer to monitor the running of this industry.
I can assure you that in the venues which I frequent the wagering on the "red hots" is the last priority of everyday punters........
Why?........no confidence!
Don't they(the officials/politicians) get it......?
Does anyone contemplate the adage of "killing of the golden goose"....well, guess what....it is about to happen!
When are we punters going to get some action?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

In the press on 6.1.07 a headline quoted:
"It's just a rort"
"Newcastle trots loses last bookie"
Need I say any more?

[xanadu]

I noticed that ICAC is interested in some happenings in this sport/industry.
We, the long-suffering betting public welcome close official scrutiny of happenings.
A permanent ICAC officer should be appointed with a roving commission to investigate any rumours/dubious results/betting activities etc. to determine whether further action is deemed necessary.
He/she can decide which matters require further scrutiny.
Congratulations to the authorities for their action so far!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I notice there is a segment allocated to the "red hots" on a certain radio station....
Could I suggest that they drop this segment because no-one is listening!
When the authorities do something positive then maybe the betting public may pay attention!
In my own case....I very,very, very rarely bet on the "red hots" and I am sure many 1000's of punters out there do likewise.
When will they get the message?
Any comments?


Cheers.

[xanadu]

Shepparton TrotsR3,

"Hot" odds-on favourite "mysteriously" gallops during running quickly tailing out last and thereby negating any chance of winning....you figure it out!
How is it that it is the hot favs which suffer such occurrences....go figure!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

If you keep betting on the "red hots" then I can only wish you well!!!!!!!

Seeya....!

[xanadu]

All I have witnessed all day is the favourites in respective trotting meetings missing the start and playing no part in the finish....go figure....!
I've said it before ...if you continue to wager on this category of racing ...then good luck to you...because you'll need it!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

You're kidding...!!
Why any "smart" punter would wager upon this category of betting is completely beyond me.....!
Look no further than some of today's results....give me a break...!!!
When is an ICAC official going to be appointed to address what has been going on for eons!!!!!
You figure it out....!!!!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Nothing's changed.......!!!
Even the last bookie at Newcastle gave it away citing certain comments!
You figure it out for yourself.....!

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

I've found sticking to the better class races produces better (read cleaner) results.
Bulli Trots C0 - no thanks!

Chariots Of Fire
Miracle Mile
Hunter Cup
Country Cups

Yes please!

Don't feel too ripped off though, the shortest priced galloper in 8 years on the tote got beaten and every night horses long odds on go down the gurgler in the UK.

Samples for ya

Excellerator $1.00 Win divvy - beaten!
Murphy's Blu Boy $1.10 - beaten!

However, they did both place, some shorties in the UK don't even place.

[xanadu]

Nothing has changed,
I watched a race at a certain trots meeting today because it had a prohibitive odds-on favourite.
You guessed it....in the straight the driver showed no interest in driving his horse to the line only to be swamped by other runners in the last 100m and eventually finishing fourth!
You work it out...when is an ICAC officer going to be appointed to enquire into such occurrences?

Cheers.

[JoeF]

Great to watch. Poor punting medium.
My grandfather used to call them "Thieves on wheels".

[partypooper]

I've got a nephew in the game, it does come in very handy I can tell you!

[xanadu]

Well put partypooper,
That is, this medium of racing is expressly for the participants...God help the unwary punters......!
Need I say any more...if you continue to wager on the "red hots" then you will be eating at the Salvos!
This whole industry needs a "new broom" to clean out decades of nepotism!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I just watched a harness race at Penrith and again....I am amazed as to why some desperates wager on this form of racing.
PenrithR1,
The favourite was constantly harassed by other less performers until it gave up...!
There are a lot of things I'd like to say but one is....when is a Royal Commission going to be appointed into this industry.....?
Until then, they won't be getting any of my money.........!
Rhyming slang....trots....."red hots"..............!

[xanadu]

Who is the spriuker who analyzes races as if they were something like nuclear science?
This somewhat podgy individual attempts to convince unwary "mug" wagerers that certain runners will do their best.
Well, guess what.....most don't as this industry should be shut down(imo) unless a Royal Commission is appointed to finally expunge this tainted industry of the majority of it's so-called "characters."

Cheers.

[xanadu]

I just watched a race at Stawell Harness and as usual the favourite was given a hard run then weakened in the straight...go figure.....!
I'm sure that some participants profited......but not the long-suffering public, who have to tolerate this "rubbish" on a daily basis...!
How can some of those "characters" sleep soundly at night.....?
Come on........! When is a Royal Commission going to be appointed into the happenings of this tarnished industry?

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Yarra Valley Trots:
R2 the odds-on favourite($1.1w$1.04plNSW), "Enthral" was run down in the straight after looking "home and hosed"........nothing has changed..........!!!!