What's Your Angle?

[Big Orange]

In the new Punt To Win article, "Form Analysis and Betting Odds" (5/7 Edition), the author wrote:

"If you are going to win at racing long term you have to be different from everyone else. Be the same and you will get their long term results."

That is solid gold advice, in my opinion.

Often, it can pay to adopt a contrarian philosophy in racing. Just assume that Joe Public is commonly wrong in either his interpretation of form or his application of betting strategy (or both!).

You are not setting yourself against the Tote or the bookies. You are competing against the punting masses who collectively form a betting market. If the betting market was always completely accurate in representing the true chances of each horse, it would be difficult to make any money out of the punt. Fortunately, the markets are askew enough to give us a fighting chance.

So, think of your ANGLE as your edge. It's the difference or the divergance from the popular way that ultimately moves you towards the land of profit.

Just a thought for the day.

[Rain Lover]

Too true, Big O.
If the collective wisdom of Joe Public is the market favourite, then he's wrong 2 times out of every 3. Which leaves us odds seekers plenty of runners at juicier prices. I personally like those starters with red ink against their names as it multiplies returns on the other runners and it pays to bet against them. If you can take a 4/6 chance out of contention then you can still back every other runner to make an average 2/1, (even while the bookie gets his 25%).
Anybody got any stats. on odds on flops??

[Placegetter]

Would it stand to reason that odds on favourites are just as unsuccessful as evens and better favourites and therefore inherit the 70% failure rate?

This is a geuine question as I don't have any stats on the subject. Seemed logical to me. In the long term the success rate of favourites as a whole would have to apply to subsections or sample spaces.

If it doesn't, then I'd say we have an angle!

Placegetter

[thekey]

Odds on Favs win 55.8% of the time

This is for all races.

[Equine Investor]

Which means unless you accept even money or greater you are bound to lose on the face of it.....Unless you can filter it down further.