Gold Coast Saturday

[maverick1993]

Hi guys..will be alot of fun tomorrow ...sorry i'm late been playing that texas holdem online..i'm hopeless at it but its fun..
like a few for tomorrow..

Race 1.
Always tuff this race..the prizemoney means alot of these horses have been set for this along way out..and you can bet the trainers are very cagey about it...no public trials ect..i'm a fan of the Piccolos ..and i liked High Peaks run at Grafton..you need to jump well in this race and have a high cruising speed ...
i'm not a huge fan of taylor but he doesnt need to do much here..just jump and run..also Startled Hunter ,,they were to quick for him last time but last prep 2nd up he ran a huge race against Top Gun Lane ..has the best jockey on board and he needs it as he doesnt start to well,,distance suits..
will be having a good look at them in the yard but High Peak and Startled Hunter look the 2..and one of them will have to look outstanding to get me interested.

Race 2.
Couldnt find a stand out here...in the scamper the barriers are pretty important but the way Angel Girl starts she can probably get across with no problem...Raelene will have to do the same but does have early speed....both risky ..Inlet bay interests,, Rogies very smart and Zac is riding the house down and knows the track..
the blinkers on Angel Girl is interesting....jumps well and is fit..
another mounting yard look ,,but i'd be looking hardest at Angel Girl and Inlet Bay..

Race 3.
Good race this one...Bailey has set Willy for this ages ago ..Havana Wind was impressive last start ..i'd be looking at these 2 ..
Havana has the weight and gives willy 5kgs ..my ratings say he cant give him that much weight and win..he'll also have to contend with Picablu up front aswell....the likely speed should suit Old Willy who'll be storming home..
the drop back in distance last start should keep that sprint in him that he loses when he gets over ground..
Willy a Special but i'd want better than 3's because Havana Wind was very strong on the line last start and is scary to take on..
good quinella race :)

RAce 4.
How impressive was Coincidental last start...looks well suited here and will win..very confident with Colless steering the boat..got left alittle flat footed last start but the 1300 looks ideal...
Star OF Asia and Decibeel to fill the placings..i'd be keeping an eye on Permissive who can also run a good race..

RAce 5.
Good race this one...i was trying to find something to beat Fashion Afield but cant..needs to lead this horse and will be tomorrow from the good draw Beasley would of got his butt kicked last start......looks to be short but they might gamble on track and i'll get 3's maybe..
Intersting runner is Katsidis ,,heard they've figured out whats wrong with him and hes trialed very nice..he'll be 50's but if Fashions is to short i might have alittle e/w on speck..
Diamondsontheinside is the main danger whos been running some good races down south..
Wish the Master would of drawn a barrier..but he'll try and lead anyway and hopefully wont hassle Fashions to much..if these 2 go hammer and tong then its set up for Diamonds..
Fashions to win hopefully at 3's ..

Race 6.
Hard to catch will lead..Mason loves to ride this way anyway ..i went looking for something to sit on him ..or get the trial...Cool Front looks the one..he'll get the dream run ..and is in good form his win last start was impressive..
I like him alot and feel very confident..
of course Amex and Deuxieme will be flying home but Mason has that knack of slowing them up so i'm not sure these backmarkers will make it in time..
Mitani hasnt had muck luck with barriers of late but my speed map has him a chance to be in the top 3 ..hes a big show if he can do it easy..Cool Front wont be be spending that sort of petrol..
Cool Front :)

Race 7.
wow the big one ..i'm a fan of a horse that can roll along up front..had a debate about what type of horse wins this race...IMO i thinks its a frontrunner with a high cruising speed...doesnt have to be a srong 1200m or 1400 horse..but others disagree..
I like Pulsator ..he jumps well and has the inform jockey who knows the track and the horse..
i agree Churchill Downs has some class but he'll be giving them a start down that straight ..and i'm not sure he'll do it..
It looks a race between Pulsator , Churchy and Assertive..
wish i could tip a local but i cant find one..
Pulsator to have to much of a break on them ..but watch the sprint by Churchy..this horse might be the real deal..
Might get 4's about Pulsator ??

Race 8.
Blink and you'll miss this race ..All Bar one will be flying along out front ..but who'll catch him ?? Covet thee has the speed to hassle him but the barrier ..same with Sydney.. ...i wanted something to sit of these 2 and grab them on the line but i couldnt find one..Algorithym looked ok and the freshen suits..but is he good enough to catch them ?? Diamyo looked good but class ??? Any Suggestion good win last start but class again ??
All BAr One for me ...would want a price so i might have to get on early..

Like a few fancies tomorrow...not usually my style but they all look good to me..not often i'm confident in 6 races but the last 6 i feel real good about..
Coincidental and Cool front the best..
Good luck all :)

[Svenvlad]

Hey all,

Great days racing tomorrow, always love the Millions meeting. Hopefully the rain stays away (unsure of the weather down the coast). Big and competitive fields seem to be the order of the day, as expected.

Race 1 - Like Rasmussen, if he gets a start (which is pretty unlikely). The alley is great and his first up run behind October Grey is a good pointer for a race like this. Will be on pace and around the coast, that is a bonus. Heinrich is a quality trainer, too. Rumbird has shown good ability in better class races than this, and won't be far off if he secures a decent run. That is, of course, a huge question mark given the 17 alley. High Peak has only had one start, but is closely related to Scenic Peak and Sonic Peak, so there is quality in the family. Trialled well recently too. If Rasmussen misses out, Fideism is a rough place hope second up.

Race 2 - Brambletye has to be given a top chance here. Cahill would have (i assume) had the choice of a few here, and has stuck with this one. Ran some good races early on, and can race on pace. That being said, i think Signal will improve a lot from the 1st up run, and it was a reasonable run behind Reigart. City Lights has had a peculiar prep, but showed a good turn of foot on debut, and from the 2 alley, can figure with adequate speed on.

Race 3 - Not the greatest betting race here. Thought Zauberei at eachway odds might prove an OK bet. Has been running well lately, and the 2nd behind High Academy was top quality. Seamer can push forward here and put himself in a nice position - can't see too much speed. Willy has had an even more bizarre prep than City Lights, but there must have been reasons for that that are unknown to me. Even so, he is a quality horse and almost overcame a dawdling pace last time to beat Mantle. Top chance. Marlene Gaye is a promising stayer and can figure tomorrow. Class might just find her out at this stage though. One for the future i think.

Race 4 - Coincidental should go close here. Was outpointed by Tornado Alley last time, and did amazingly well to finish where she did. With this drop back in class, i think she can go close. The 1300m looks good too. Shanambah ran some really good races in town last prep (in particular one behind Star Shiraz) and can figure here. Versatile sort of galloper too, can go forward or take a sit. Good to see C. Brown back in Aus too. Miss Carolion hasn't had much go her way this prep, but if they press forward on her tomorrow, she'll give the rest something to catch. The 1st and 2nd up runs will have done her the world of good, fitness-wise.

Race 5 - First of the big races. I like Teletrader at odds here. I loved the win 2 back over the 1600m at Doomben. Although he had everything go his way, he really attacked the line like a good horse. The time was great too. From the 4 alley, with Brown on board and with the fitness run first up, i think hes a great show. Master Denis has been improving all the time in the lower grades and deserves his shot here (i would have preferred him to have a go in town before this run, for the experience, but eh ). He is a definite chance if he has some luck from the alley. Upilio shouldn't bother with the barrier draws, they may aswell give him an outside alley from the outset. If he gets some sort of luck, then he is a chance. That is pretty unlikely, though, given his track record with alleys and luck.

Race 6 - Tough one. I like Mitanni, but would have been more confident with a better draw. That being said, he'll go forward and hopefully won't have too much trouble crossing them. He is a nice horse on his day, running some unbelievable times on occasion. Deuxieme has drawn alongside Mitanni in the carpark, but will get back, courtesy of his habit of missing the kick. Was a good win last time in the Berborough though, and can figure. Hard To Catch is a horse i've always liked, and can show his quality tomorrow from the good draw. Nice to see the connections have kept Mason on too.

Race 7 - Here we are, the 2yos. Reigart is the one for me here. Hasn't been beaten in an appearance in public yet, winning well in both trials and on race day. His last run was most impressive for mine. He kicked away and gave nothing else a chance. Time was solid too. The 13 is tough, but he seems versatile enough and can hopefully slot in somewhere. Charmana Star has got plenty of talent but 17 knocks a lot of confidence out. She will need everything to go her own way if she is to win, but a place is possible. Gold Edition hasn't done much wrong so far, and has drawn perfectly. Lynch will be hoping this one goes straight, unlike last year .

Race 8 - Good race to finish on. If All Bar One repeats some of his recent runs, he shouldn't be beaten here. His Melbourne run and a couple of the runs in the Brisbane Winter Carnival were amazing. The speed of the race will be a concern, given that half the field like to press forward, but i think hes quicker than them. Royal Hero is a big chance too, especially after the enormous run first up. Starlactic has since come out and demolished a decent town field, so he is in this up to his ears. Helter Skelter will improve off the last run too, where he didn't handle the track.

Quality racing tomorrow. My best are Coincidental, Mitanni and All Bar one, with a good rough chance to Teletrader.

Good luck everyone

Sven

[Sportz]

Like a few fancies tomorrow...not usually my style but they all look good to me..not often i'm confident in 6 races but the last 6 i feel real good about..
Coincidental and Cool front the best..
Good luck all :)

:eek: I agree with you in basically all of those. I don't know if I'll even be betting in the big one, but I pretty much agree with your selection in the other 5!!! Don't know if that's a good or bad thing!!! Got a lot of weight on them now.

[maverick1993]

the more the merrier Sportz .. the Gold coast is a consistant track for me so i have high hopes ..
good to know people like yourself and Sven like a few of the same..gives me more confidence..

hopefully we havent killed the prices ...we dont have that big of following do we ??

seems my man with the Mail about Looming tonight told every man and his dog ...came 2nd so alittle profit so i'm not complaining ..but he did say it would run at double figures..

[maverick1993]

we all agree about coincidental .. is this an omen or just coincidental ;)

[Sportz]

seems my man with the Mail about Looming tonight told every man and his dog ...came 2nd so alittle profit so i'm not complaining ..but he did say it would run at double figures..

Nah, there was never any chance of that. It was a good run. I'd say next time it'll be a TOP chance.

[Raw Instinct]

I actually thought that Amex was nearly a special today I know he is a mongrel horse to back sometimes but he has never raced more consistently than what he is right now and the 5 out of 8 at the track certainly doesn't hurt it's chances. He ran into trouble last start and still blew them away.

Deuxieme is the danger to him in my mind but I just feel Amex can pull off three in a row here.

[ijuandaQLD]

i have to agree with u fellas. the last race is a beauty. definitely one of my fave races to watch. the 1000's in brizzy. u can b guaranteed a good 6 or 7 chances each time and even then they might not win. but agree with u All bar one looks a bit too classy today.

[crash]

we all agree about coincidental .. is this an omen or just coincidental ;)

Na, I'll go No. 5 Shanambah.

R6/6 Inspire
for the Million's cup.

Good luck folks.

[wise one]

I like the following today at the Coast

Race 3 Willy Leica

Race 4 Lasting Luck ( should be at good odds )

Race 5 Fashoins Afield

Race 6 Cool Front and a little each way bet on Plans



Bet Smart Bet Wise

[TESTAROSSA]

I think Decibeel at good odds might knock off Coincidental, might have a good go at it

Well missed the start and never had a chance, Coincidental was ridden on the pace which i didn't expect, good win, good horse

[Sportz]

I'm still reeling from Break The Barrier.

[Raw Instinct]

Sorry to anyone who backed Amex put the kiss of death on him :) ****** hell atleast he saw daylight with 100m to go

[Raw Instinct]

As far as the Millions goes I am going e/w on Way Off might run well it might not I am going to gamble that it didn't handle Doomben last start as it wouldn't be the first horse that was the case for. at around the 30-1 mark figure it is worth a stab anyway.

[Sportz]

I give up.

[Svenvlad]

Who could have possibly had both Warrior Trader AND Kanetoshi Millions in that 1st four?

*sigh*

At least Coincidental won, thank God for small mercies....

Sven

[Sportz]

Coincidental must have been the biggest certainty of the year to win there today.

[Raw Instinct]

gone with a 5 horse quinella for value: Reigart, Master Archie, Way Off, Assertive & Charmana Star who knows

[Raw Instinct]

My god big run that

[Sportz]

Had a feeling it'd be another roughie.

[Raw Instinct]

So did I to be honest Sportz didn't think the favs were that great just couldn't find the right one.

[Sportz]

Raw,

I didn't know what was going to win, but I was pretty confident that Churchill Downs would run a place. So I simply took him in an any2 with the whole field. $26.45 back from $7.50. Could have done better with a quinella or exacta or something, but never mind.

[xptdriver]

So did I to be honest Sportz didn't think the favs were that great just couldn't find the right one.

I thought I had the right one with Reigart... ah well

[xptdriver]

Raw,

I didn't know what was going to win, but I was pretty confident that Churchill Downs would run a place. So I simply took him in an any2 with the whole field. $26.45 back from $7.50. Could have done better with a quinella or exacta or something, but never mind.


I gotta look at these any 2's... they seem a pretty fair bet to me...
( near a licence to print money) if you can take the field for 7.5 and return 26 in that race .. I assume that is for a half?

Only unitab have em? I have opened small accounts with them STAB and Austote as well as but have only been betting the win.... the any 2 sounds interesting....

How does it work sportz?

[xptdriver]

See if we can make a quid with the ol get out at teh Coast

I have em this way

10 31 DAIMYO
4 23 COVET THEE
5 23 ALGORITHM
3 22 MT. GOWER
6 21 ANY SUGGESTION


Would the 10 be a banker in an any 2 ?

[Sportz]

Yeah, that was for a half. For a dollar, it would have been $52.90 back from $15.

An any2 is like a quinella, only your horses can finish 1-3 and 2-3 as well as 1-2. Basically you just have to find 2 horses that finish in the placings.

If you take an any2 bet with one horse from the field, it is exactly the same as taking a place bet, because all your horse has to do is place and you get 2 of the 3 divs. You can sometimes win a fair bit more than the place bet. For example, I just took a $1 any2 bet with Smart Maxie from the field and I got $29.30 back from $10. By comparison, a $10 place bet would have returned only $12. And with the Churchill Downs one, the any2 returned $52.90 as opposed to $30 for a $15 place bet.

Of course, it doesn't always work out that well.

[xptdriver]

See if we can make a quid with the ol get out at teh Coast

I have em this way

10 31 DAIMYO
4 23 COVET THEE
5 23 ALGORITHM
3 22 MT. GOWER
6 21 ANY SUGGESTION


Would the 10 be a banker in an any 2 ?

The 10 Paid well I thought.... to me it was a fair way ahead of the others...

[Sportz]

Would the 10 be a banker in an any 2 ?

Ahhh no. This is one of those occasions when you would have actually LOST badly compared to the place bet!!! It doesn't always work out. Otherwise, as you said, it would be a licence to print money.

[Sportz]

The 10 Paid well I thought.... to me it was a fair way ahead of the others...

You've gone well today.

[xptdriver]

Ahhh no. This is one of those occasions when you would have actually LOST badly compared to the place bet!!!


Gday Sportz...

Yeah I haven't got my head around the A2 concept yet... you seem to do fine with it... I am more a win bettor, with a few tris thrown in on the big days...

As an aside I couln't believe that Austote decided to wager on Ipswich rather than the Coast.... seems a funny decision to me...

[Sportz]

No worries, xpt. It's not for everyone.

Anyway, these were the field any2 bets I had today and in brackets, how you would have gone with place betting.

GCst R3-3 Willy Leica - Out $8, In $32.70 ($8.80)
GCst R4-4 Coincidental - Out $10, In $27.00 ($15.00)
GCst R5-13 Fashions Afield - Out $7.50, In $6.30 ($9.75)
GCst R6-1 Cool Front - Out $8, In $0 ($0)
GCst R7-5 Churchill Downs - Out $7.50, In $26.45 ($15.00)
GCst R8-1 All Bar One - Out $11, In $11.90 ($19.00)
Cant R8-5 Smart Maxie - Out $10, In $29.30 ($12)
Total Out $62, In $133.65 ($78.75)

[maverick1993]

Hi Guys ..a tuff day at the coast ..
won a stack load on Coincidental (my biggest bet of the day)..trifecta / a bit of the 1st4 ' even an exacta...then i proceeded to give most of it back on Cool front (Very unlucky because of that riderless horse) Pulsator and All Bar one..

left willy and Fashions alone at those prices (knew someone who lost 6 figures on those horses)...had a few big trifectas that included roughies for the other races but just couldnt snag one..
Had a few to many beers had a a few to many perves at the hot chicks about but still had a good day..

when you can win 1 race out of 4 and blow a few hundred trying for that elusive 1st4 and trifecta and then still walk out with your shirt still on i think your doing well...(thank god for the multis)

had a couple of wins here and there..thought Show Bizz Kid was a good thing and actually rated 2nd and 3rd in order..very nice for me..
Elmasiah in Adelaide was a nice place collect...
lost everywhere else (But keep an eye on For Valour next start)
still have Comeback kid in the next at Ascot..this would make the day worthwhile :)

[crash]

A fun day for fun bets but only the Bookies got the chocolates.

I had 6 place getters for the day [I bet for the win], but I did get a 4th. division in Tattslotto:-)

[maverick1993]

sounds like you had more luck in picking up....hmmm

Some nice fillies on show but i'm surprised they didnt melt in that sun..the only thing i picked up was Sun stroke and minor alcohol poisoning..
and a lesson in leaving these 2yo races alone..(lost a stack on Snitzel last year)
how good was Comeback kids run last night..flew home for third..
real struggle yesterday after doing so well after Coincidentals race ..
I was looking the cool pro yesterday ..left Willy alone then won a stack on Coincidental then left Fashions alone ...thought it was going to be a big day..

Cool Front was massively unlucky All bar one needed to lead and Pulsator showed nothing when let down..great win by Mirror and CHurchills run was also good..i had the race panned out differently than that..i doubted the ability of those at the back to make that much ground up..but they did and did it nicely..

Oh well another day where a couple of nice divies got me out of trouble...seems to be my way of late . and i'm even turning some old pros around to my way of thinking about Trifectas and 1st4's ,,especially after yesterday..,..,and Bazelle the other week,,,

[crash]

Win or lose, it was an exciting day of racing. Enough was going on and results were happening to challenge our preconceptions,and hopefully improve our insight into Handicapping or rating horses too [very important].


By these personal challenges we hope to improve our insight [and our profit].

[Mr ed]

Hey Mav, don't know why but Danny didn't seem to busy on All Bar One, maybe he thought the same as you with him leading. As it turned out he got pretty damn close and wasn't even stoked up, definately one for next time.

[maverick1993]

Hey Mav, don't know why but Danny didn't seem to busy on All Bar One, maybe he thought the same as you with him leading. As it turned out he got pretty damn close and wasn't even stoked up, definately one for next time.

I agree Mr Ed..all bar one doesnt have that short extra burst like DAimyo has..thought he would of pressured for the lead alittle earlier cause he did seem to be travelling well....theres been a few times i've questioned mr Beasleys riding of Late ..

Didnt Zac Purton have a shocker on Saturday.....they'll be telling him to stay down there if he keeps that up..

Master Dennis's run was massive ...Angel Girl and Decibeel also impressive on video..