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Svenvlad
28th July 2006, 10:55 PM
Hi all,

A tough days racing has been made even more difficult with the rain coming to Brissy in the last day or so. Given that it has fallen pretty consistently for the last 24 hours, I’d say a slow track will be seen at some stage tomorrow. That being said though, there are some pretty good betting opportunities tomorrow and we won’t let the rain spoil that :).

Race 1 –

Like Aerosol here. He doesn’t win out of turn, but he’ll give a good show out in front. I think with the stronger rider, he can be held up a bit in front and not be so spent at the 150m like last time. The 10 alley is no concern as he will go forward, so I think at reasonable odds he is worth a go. Poppy Power ran on well last time in the Soul Diva race and is a top chance here if they pour the pressure on Aerosol (or Aerosol goes mad in front). Regimental has been running against some really good company lately and while he is looking like a non-winner at present, can run well with the speed on.

Race 2 –

Well I never like these stayers races in Brisbane and this is no exception. Maybe Down to Earth, Rhombus Lad and Pappapo. But that’s it, I got nothing more :D.

Race 3 – This is a good race. I like Cocktail Supreme. Has been running well in good time of late and the form around him has been franked nicely. His only ‘failure’ occurred when he was trapped deep at Ippy in the good 2yo race there during the carnival. From the 4 alley he won’t be deep (at least I hope not) and so I think he is well worth a look. The 3 off for Plumb is nice too. Mellifluous was a top win last time at EF in the midweeks – the time was very good for a horse having his 2nd start. If he can improve on that, and get some luck from the nightmare alley, he is a good chance at odds. Tour Guide should also be included after the trainer’s comments during the week. That stable should always be respected, especially after some nice wins of late.

Race 4 – While it may not have some of the quality horses we’ve seen lately, race 4 is another good example of the healthy state of QLD racing. Nice big field, with many chances – its great to see. My Son Day is the obvious pick. He was just too good for them last time and not much has changed here. He still has the good alley and he is carrying the same weight (as are his opposition). All he has to do is go 250m further – which by the look of the last run, shouldn’t be too big of an issue. He’ll do me. Daneland was deep last time in the run and so should be forgiven for that effort. He’ll get a much better trip tomorrow and should be there at the death. Teletrader has ability but the alley has appeared to put pay to his chances in this. This is his sort of race though – he is a rung below the best QLD 3yos but he has the talent to win in town.

Race 5 – Well Mersey Beat is the obvious one here. The perfect gate, the good jockey, the good trainer and winning form. You won’t get a price, but he really should beat these if he’s to go onto better things in the future. Jay Dee Rocks is a horse I’ve followed for too long but I just can’t leave him out. He’s a lovely horse and could appreciate the wet going, along with the standard of this field. Good chance at odds. Prang also has nice ability, she can tend to put in some bad ones here and there though. The wet track might be of assistance tomorrow though, and she shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

Race 6 – I don’t mind Picture Book here. Has drawn the perfect gate and gets an extra 100m which appears to be beneficial at this stage. Was getting to the line nicely last time and so if there is some good speed in the race (which I expect), I think this bloke can run well. Saint Angelo should be right on the speed here and so the 12 alley may not play much of a part. Byrne should ensure he gets the right run. I’ve found that in these sorts of races, following the lightly raced gallopers works more often than not, and Saint Angelo is certainly lightly raced. Maybe Fleeting Echo for 3rd who trounced a reasonable field at Caloundra last time.

Race 7 – Birthday Bash is the obvious pick. Drops in weight after running a great race behind Feelin Dandy…who looks well above average. The alley and the trainer/jockey combo just add the icing to the cake. San Franfrisco has drawn the bad gate, but has been racing so well that you just can’t leave him out. Tropiqualo disappointed last time but is better than that and can show it tomorrow from the great alley. At the 17s listed in the paper, he looks great value.

Race 8 – Last race. Well Spur Me On is no hope with the rain coming. I don’t mind General Patton. His alley is bad, but Bowditch is riding well so I’ll bank on him getting the right run. Naval Seal gets a golden opportunity to win another one here. Because Spur Me On is known to be a poor wet track runner, the stable may scratch….which will take much of the speed out of the race – perfect for Naval Seal. That’s Better also has a bad alley, but is a very good horse when right. Well since I’ve chosen all the wide alleys, I could be in for a very ordinary day :)

Good luck all,

Sven

maverick1993
28th July 2006, 11:43 PM
Hi Sven...yep im the same ,,i'm thinking Slow track tomorrow even if the sun comes out...been raining very steady for most of the day...

Race 1
I'm doing the ratings on a Slow track which puts Aerosol on top..he isnt a mudlark or anything but can atleast handle it..I like the confidence they have in putting Rodd on board and not a claimer....his 2nd to the Chasin tail showed alot of merit and hes racing on a track and distance that suits...Regimental looked good running home last start is a distance query but you'd think would be able to run it out going on his last run..won on the slow aswell...Poppy Power had the dream run last start but again gets the good barrier and likely good run in transit here..Olivers Magic maybe risky in the conditions but is racing well eough with first use of the track to be thereabouts...these the top four with a gap to Sansaba who will be running on late as usual ....
Aerosol on top,,,,Poppy , Regimental and Olivers Magic ,,,

Race 2.
Dont like this race to much...to many ifs and buts....I'd take on Soul Diva here in the wet...King Latarmiss just loves the wet and has been racing well,,,got into alittle bother last start but still worked home nicely...How tough was Rampant lion last start...A lion hunter out of a Celestial Dancer mare you'd think would be pushing to get 1400m...but he seems to stick on like a good old fashion stayer...i do think however tomorrow in the wet with that weight might just pull him up but hes won in the wet before and i think will be in the placings for sure..... Papapo is costly but with the weight pull and the the likely cushy run in the race looks suited,,wet track form ?? ....a huge 200/1 shot in this that might cause a minor miracle is Aquador,,this horse will love the wet and is fitter now after a spell,,,put him in your mulits atleast..has won for me at ods before .but bot in town though..
Two dancers is bred to stay and youd think the wet would suit aswell..i like they way he finished off last start and am convincing myself at the odds to go with him..,,i should get double figure odds ....
interesting to see alot of jockey swaps..did JB jump off Pappapo for Soul Diva ?? Did Patillo jump off King Latarmiss for Hanelie Bay or did Cahill really put it to the trainers for him to take the ride..??
Two Dancers and King Latarmiss on top...Soul Diva, Pappapo,Rampant Lion,..

Race 3.
Hard to forget Moodie wobbling all over the place last time he raced and still strolled past them....General rule about Rory's is they dont like the wet..but he won well enough in it last time..im not fan of Stewart though..i can see him now ,,running about 5th or 6th on the fence ,,the field faning around him...but he'll wait till its all to late and the horse will eventualy get out and be a good thing beaten...they'll say "How unlucky" ,,,and Stewart will get away with it yet again..
Cocktail Supreme has talent,,beat the older horses (granted they were donkeys) which isnt easy to do..just not sure in the wet...Pagan County is racing well and worth thought.,,,Xanadue Chambers worked home very well last start and i like the Clangs in the wet but the barier is scary just not sire Drake has the skill to get him over....Analign jumps well and Mason rides these types of horse well....very hard race..
I have Moodie rated on top even with Stewart on Board..The horse has a stack of ability and a potential topliner..,,,but i'll be watching unless i get a price...

Race 4 (running out of time so i'll have to be quick)
My Son Day the obvious...tried to find something to beat him but couldnt..will be short ...Gold Gold Gold rates high,,,,

RAce 5.
Mersey Beats all the rage...trialled in the wet very well...Mr beanwater at the double figure odds worth a look e/w maybe if Mersey is way to short..,,,

Race 6.
I like Defecting Playboy in the wet...i think at this time of the day the barrier wont be to much of a disadvantage..,,same with Kutalo whos racing very well,,,both should be good odds and worth a bet..Kutalo just needs to run up to his last run to win this..
Sir Mukafest will love the wet ground as well..the mukkadamahs thrive in it..

Race 7.
How do you not back Top Marc,,,horse is racing ok but at this time of the day the track could be a mess and he'll love it...

Race 8.
Sectagonal a special...loves the track and racing very well ...

Best bets,,My Son Day,Mersey beat, Top Marc, Sectagonal
Best e/ws..Two Dancers, Aerosol, Kutalo

of course if the sun comes out and the wind picks up it could be a dead track,,and that'll throw things out of whack...

Good luck all :)

crash
29th July 2006, 01:44 AM
Race 7.
How do you not back Top Marc,,,horse is racing ok but at this time of the day the track could be a mess and he'll love it...
Good luck all :)

I'd be a bit wary of Top Marc Mav. He hasn't won for over a year and it's a Sat. metro. That no wins for a year/Sat. metro combo, has a poor history of getting on well together. Of course it might happen, but I'd want very good odds which won't be there for Top Marc. Punters will be all over him. So it could be a race to clean up on with a bit of thought.

Michael Cahill seems to be in form and the apprentices should get a good look in tomorrow. I like that kid Ric McMahon and I've made some good money from carefully looking at his rides. He has the makings of a champion jock and he's on Down To Earth tomorrow [R2] who has wet tracker blood which Soul Deva hasn't [even though she has a 'heavy' win on her books].

Good luck to everyone.

the freek
29th July 2006, 09:13 AM
PICTURE BOOK, DRAWN WELL http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

Filante
29th July 2006, 11:27 AM
Really tough day on a dead track.

Race 1: 3.Poppy Power; 1.Oliver's Magic; 2.Aerosol

Race 2: 3.Soul Diva; 5.Down to Earth; 4.Pappapo; 1. Rampant Lion

Race 3: 2.Cocktail Supreme; 1.Moodee; 15.Tour Guide; 3.Brambletye; 4.Analign

Race 4: 1.My Son Day; 4.Picaduke; 6.Line by Line

Race 5: 2.Mersey Beat; 16.Jay Dee Rocks; 12.Prang

Race 6: 14.Fleeting Echo; 3.Sir Mukafast; 8.Suubird

Race 7: 10.Tropiqualo; 2.Western Brace; 7.San Franfrisco

Race 8: 6.Sectagonal; 7.That's Better; 5.Testify

Cheers

F

Filante
29th July 2006, 04:53 PM
Didn't turn out so bad after all. Had 3 winners on top, backed on Betfair - Poppy Power $4.5, Soul Diva $4.1 and Cocktail Supreme $5 - along with a small bet on Suubird at $9 for a decent profit.

Raw Instinct
29th July 2006, 05:03 PM
I am stuffed if I can work out Devil that horse is a pain in the butt when you think he can win he doesn't and when you just forget all about him he gets up was really trying to kick home either Birthday Bash and Picablu for my treble it just wasn't to be paid pretty well to.

maverick1993
29th July 2006, 10:36 PM
Well done Filante ,,,i just couldnt believe that after all the rain we got Friday and some Friday night that at 7am this morning the track is rated only dead and with the sun out...
Brisbane and the catchments still seem to miss all the rain..i'm about 20mins south of the track and i was contemplating building an Ark,,

if you look through the results...there wasnt to much of a surprise all day ...with the exception of Naval seal who i thought might struggle the last 100m or so (i had a stack on Sectagonal..grr)...and Elegant Roi but he shortened a stack on the tote and on track so if you were in the loop you made a killing..not me though..

Bikie tin blues is all that needs to be said about the 1st 2 races..
Youd think Devil with the sting just out of the ground would have apreciated it with his feet probs...the horse looks like Arnie on the juice by the way Kelly's got him looking unbelievable.... ,,,
Bold Reason who i thought would be scratched on the slow has been unlucky his last 2 and just needed room to be competitive here....
Cocktail Supreme risky with the Danehill lines on the slow but on this track right in this race...i like this horse...
Suubird after a huge run last start being beaten by the above average Anca was way overs at 10's...cant run any further... i was happy with Kutalo though......

Looked a hard day on the slow but not to hard on the better surface...

Missed a couple of opportunities today that are doing my head in(devil,,Marwina Gold to name a couple??) but a great days racing ...
Loved Adelaide today ..

Just love Doomben ..better facilities and continuosly shows up the old beaten up ramshackled dump across the road...,,i wish they'd get there act together and combine forces ...imagine a super track with better prizemoney to lure the southerners up..would be fantastic..

Horse Whisperer
30th July 2006, 10:09 PM
tell me about it mav....i was in shock when devil won its race today....

hed a bit e/w on elegant roi and then went for broke on naval seal in the last, so finished in front. very lucky though, it was a hard day to pick anything. just waiting on the spring carnival to start down south.