Svenvlad
28th July 2006, 10:55 PM
Hi all,
A tough days racing has been made even more difficult with the rain coming to Brissy in the last day or so. Given that it has fallen pretty consistently for the last 24 hours, I’d say a slow track will be seen at some stage tomorrow. That being said though, there are some pretty good betting opportunities tomorrow and we won’t let the rain spoil that :).
Race 1 –
Like Aerosol here. He doesn’t win out of turn, but he’ll give a good show out in front. I think with the stronger rider, he can be held up a bit in front and not be so spent at the 150m like last time. The 10 alley is no concern as he will go forward, so I think at reasonable odds he is worth a go. Poppy Power ran on well last time in the Soul Diva race and is a top chance here if they pour the pressure on Aerosol (or Aerosol goes mad in front). Regimental has been running against some really good company lately and while he is looking like a non-winner at present, can run well with the speed on.
Race 2 –
Well I never like these stayers races in Brisbane and this is no exception. Maybe Down to Earth, Rhombus Lad and Pappapo. But that’s it, I got nothing more :D.
Race 3 – This is a good race. I like Cocktail Supreme. Has been running well in good time of late and the form around him has been franked nicely. His only ‘failure’ occurred when he was trapped deep at Ippy in the good 2yo race there during the carnival. From the 4 alley he won’t be deep (at least I hope not) and so I think he is well worth a look. The 3 off for Plumb is nice too. Mellifluous was a top win last time at EF in the midweeks – the time was very good for a horse having his 2nd start. If he can improve on that, and get some luck from the nightmare alley, he is a good chance at odds. Tour Guide should also be included after the trainer’s comments during the week. That stable should always be respected, especially after some nice wins of late.
Race 4 – While it may not have some of the quality horses we’ve seen lately, race 4 is another good example of the healthy state of QLD racing. Nice big field, with many chances – its great to see. My Son Day is the obvious pick. He was just too good for them last time and not much has changed here. He still has the good alley and he is carrying the same weight (as are his opposition). All he has to do is go 250m further – which by the look of the last run, shouldn’t be too big of an issue. He’ll do me. Daneland was deep last time in the run and so should be forgiven for that effort. He’ll get a much better trip tomorrow and should be there at the death. Teletrader has ability but the alley has appeared to put pay to his chances in this. This is his sort of race though – he is a rung below the best QLD 3yos but he has the talent to win in town.
Race 5 – Well Mersey Beat is the obvious one here. The perfect gate, the good jockey, the good trainer and winning form. You won’t get a price, but he really should beat these if he’s to go onto better things in the future. Jay Dee Rocks is a horse I’ve followed for too long but I just can’t leave him out. He’s a lovely horse and could appreciate the wet going, along with the standard of this field. Good chance at odds. Prang also has nice ability, she can tend to put in some bad ones here and there though. The wet track might be of assistance tomorrow though, and she shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
Race 6 – I don’t mind Picture Book here. Has drawn the perfect gate and gets an extra 100m which appears to be beneficial at this stage. Was getting to the line nicely last time and so if there is some good speed in the race (which I expect), I think this bloke can run well. Saint Angelo should be right on the speed here and so the 12 alley may not play much of a part. Byrne should ensure he gets the right run. I’ve found that in these sorts of races, following the lightly raced gallopers works more often than not, and Saint Angelo is certainly lightly raced. Maybe Fleeting Echo for 3rd who trounced a reasonable field at Caloundra last time.
Race 7 – Birthday Bash is the obvious pick. Drops in weight after running a great race behind Feelin Dandy…who looks well above average. The alley and the trainer/jockey combo just add the icing to the cake. San Franfrisco has drawn the bad gate, but has been racing so well that you just can’t leave him out. Tropiqualo disappointed last time but is better than that and can show it tomorrow from the great alley. At the 17s listed in the paper, he looks great value.
Race 8 – Last race. Well Spur Me On is no hope with the rain coming. I don’t mind General Patton. His alley is bad, but Bowditch is riding well so I’ll bank on him getting the right run. Naval Seal gets a golden opportunity to win another one here. Because Spur Me On is known to be a poor wet track runner, the stable may scratch….which will take much of the speed out of the race – perfect for Naval Seal. That’s Better also has a bad alley, but is a very good horse when right. Well since I’ve chosen all the wide alleys, I could be in for a very ordinary day :)
Good luck all,
Sven
A tough days racing has been made even more difficult with the rain coming to Brissy in the last day or so. Given that it has fallen pretty consistently for the last 24 hours, I’d say a slow track will be seen at some stage tomorrow. That being said though, there are some pretty good betting opportunities tomorrow and we won’t let the rain spoil that :).
Race 1 –
Like Aerosol here. He doesn’t win out of turn, but he’ll give a good show out in front. I think with the stronger rider, he can be held up a bit in front and not be so spent at the 150m like last time. The 10 alley is no concern as he will go forward, so I think at reasonable odds he is worth a go. Poppy Power ran on well last time in the Soul Diva race and is a top chance here if they pour the pressure on Aerosol (or Aerosol goes mad in front). Regimental has been running against some really good company lately and while he is looking like a non-winner at present, can run well with the speed on.
Race 2 –
Well I never like these stayers races in Brisbane and this is no exception. Maybe Down to Earth, Rhombus Lad and Pappapo. But that’s it, I got nothing more :D.
Race 3 – This is a good race. I like Cocktail Supreme. Has been running well in good time of late and the form around him has been franked nicely. His only ‘failure’ occurred when he was trapped deep at Ippy in the good 2yo race there during the carnival. From the 4 alley he won’t be deep (at least I hope not) and so I think he is well worth a look. The 3 off for Plumb is nice too. Mellifluous was a top win last time at EF in the midweeks – the time was very good for a horse having his 2nd start. If he can improve on that, and get some luck from the nightmare alley, he is a good chance at odds. Tour Guide should also be included after the trainer’s comments during the week. That stable should always be respected, especially after some nice wins of late.
Race 4 – While it may not have some of the quality horses we’ve seen lately, race 4 is another good example of the healthy state of QLD racing. Nice big field, with many chances – its great to see. My Son Day is the obvious pick. He was just too good for them last time and not much has changed here. He still has the good alley and he is carrying the same weight (as are his opposition). All he has to do is go 250m further – which by the look of the last run, shouldn’t be too big of an issue. He’ll do me. Daneland was deep last time in the run and so should be forgiven for that effort. He’ll get a much better trip tomorrow and should be there at the death. Teletrader has ability but the alley has appeared to put pay to his chances in this. This is his sort of race though – he is a rung below the best QLD 3yos but he has the talent to win in town.
Race 5 – Well Mersey Beat is the obvious one here. The perfect gate, the good jockey, the good trainer and winning form. You won’t get a price, but he really should beat these if he’s to go onto better things in the future. Jay Dee Rocks is a horse I’ve followed for too long but I just can’t leave him out. He’s a lovely horse and could appreciate the wet going, along with the standard of this field. Good chance at odds. Prang also has nice ability, she can tend to put in some bad ones here and there though. The wet track might be of assistance tomorrow though, and she shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
Race 6 – I don’t mind Picture Book here. Has drawn the perfect gate and gets an extra 100m which appears to be beneficial at this stage. Was getting to the line nicely last time and so if there is some good speed in the race (which I expect), I think this bloke can run well. Saint Angelo should be right on the speed here and so the 12 alley may not play much of a part. Byrne should ensure he gets the right run. I’ve found that in these sorts of races, following the lightly raced gallopers works more often than not, and Saint Angelo is certainly lightly raced. Maybe Fleeting Echo for 3rd who trounced a reasonable field at Caloundra last time.
Race 7 – Birthday Bash is the obvious pick. Drops in weight after running a great race behind Feelin Dandy…who looks well above average. The alley and the trainer/jockey combo just add the icing to the cake. San Franfrisco has drawn the bad gate, but has been racing so well that you just can’t leave him out. Tropiqualo disappointed last time but is better than that and can show it tomorrow from the great alley. At the 17s listed in the paper, he looks great value.
Race 8 – Last race. Well Spur Me On is no hope with the rain coming. I don’t mind General Patton. His alley is bad, but Bowditch is riding well so I’ll bank on him getting the right run. Naval Seal gets a golden opportunity to win another one here. Because Spur Me On is known to be a poor wet track runner, the stable may scratch….which will take much of the speed out of the race – perfect for Naval Seal. That’s Better also has a bad alley, but is a very good horse when right. Well since I’ve chosen all the wide alleys, I could be in for a very ordinary day :)
Good luck all,
Sven