Cup Weights

[Hammers]

I wonder if the people who said Sunline was thrown into the Doncaster with 2.5kgs OVER weight for age will think that Northerly is thrown into the Melbourne Cup with 0.5kgs UNDER weight for age?
Do not be under the illusion that the Melbourne Cup is a stronger race than the Doncaster either. The quality of two mile horses in this country is quite poor and when you consider the placings that the imports have achieved in the past nine years it supports that view. Give The Slip and Central Park for example are pacemakers for better stablemates in Europe yet both went mighty close to winning.
So is Northerly a chance at 58kgs? Providing he is trained to run two miles he should have a crack in my opinion.
Any thoughts?

[Sandgroper]

Interesting point Hammers. It does seem that Kersley has brought Northerly back more underdone than previous campaigns.

And what's this blinkers off caper.
Didn't help on Saturday, all Northerly wanted to do was check on what was going on around him.

Likely to be just peaking around Cox Plate time, and then what?

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-09-03 14:38 ]</font>

WFA has no relevance to weights carried in handicaps.

58kgs over 3200m is a lot different to 58kgs over 1600m.

In the past 30 years only one horse has carried 58kgs or more to win the Melb Cup - Think Big in 1975. Yet plenty of horses have carried 58kgs to win a Doncaster.

Vinnie Roe has no chance of winning with 59kgs. The King couldn't do it with 59kgs so there's no way a foreign horse could.

[Hammers]

Slowhorse,
Horses are balloted in the Cup relative to the WFA scale so the VRC obviously have disagreed with you for many years.
The only Doncaster winners since 1970 that I can recall with 58+ besides Sunline are Gunsynd and Super Impose - both all time great milers. There haven't been "plenty".
My argument re Northerly is this. Many Sunday experts were crying that Sunline was thrown in to the Doncaster with 58 - presumably they were sour grapes having backed something else and not the "lightly" weighted mare. Surely a horse with a great WFA record like Northerly is well weighted with 58 when a horse like Central Park with moderate European form could run a close second with 57. Vintage Crop sat 5 wide as a 9 year old with 59 or 59.5 and ran third. Super Impose ran 4th with 60 and hadn't won a Cox Plate at the time.
The big weights aren't carried to victory often in the Cup because they don't try. A quality galloper with a reasonable weight such as Northerly should be competitive against what will essentially be a field of handicappers and plodders.
Northerly will only compete in races up to 2000m prior to the Cox Plate over 2040. The Cup is only 10 days later and the only other suitable lead up would be the McKinnon, again 2000m. I believe a horse must have a 2400+ under its belt leading up to the Cup. It is pretty clear Kersley is not Cup bound.
My question is why not.

Previous quality winners-

Let's Elope had 51, Jeune had 56.5, M&P had 56, Saintly had 55.5, Vintage crop had 55.5.

Is Northerly better than those previous winners by several kgs??? I think not.

He would be no hope with 58kgs. Imagine Sunline with 58kgs over 3200m? She'd finished close to last.

Is Northerly 7 kgs betyter than LE? No
Is " 1.5kgs better than J? No
Is " 2kgs better than M&P? No
Is " 2.5kgs better than Saintly? No
Is " 2.5kgs better than VC? No


Every horse with 57kgs or more in this year's cup have no hope of winning - that includes Vinnie Roe 59, Northerly 58, Marienbard 57, Sky Heights 57. The best they can hope for is a placing behind one of the lightweights.

Saintly went from the cox plate into the cup without a run over 2400m. He ran in the metro mid year, but that was long before the cup

The treatment of most of the foreign horses by the handicapper has been harsh. It has spoiled the race in my opinion.

I would have allocated weights like this
Vinnie Roe 57.5
Northerly 56.5
Give the Slip 56
Sky Heights 55

The lightweights are about right.

[Hammers]

Saintly was placed in the Metrop over 2400 ( or was it 2600? ) TWO starts before winning the Cup; the start before the Cox Plate. All of Bart's ten winners since Light Fingers have had a 2400+ in the lead up.
M & P, Saintly, Let's Elope were 4YO's when they won the Cup. As 5YO's they would have received more weight. This WFA comparison that I talk of is not my opinion it is a real consideration of all handicappers and ratings people when doing weights. Horses improve as they get older - even from 4 to 5. The WFA scale shows that and it is relevant when weighting handicaps.
I don't know whether Northerly would win with 58 or not but I'm pretty sure we won't find out because Kersley won't have a go. Saintly would probably have won his year with 57 or 57.5 such was the ease of the victory. Given that that being a 4YO that is WFA and Northerly is under WFA, I do not think he would have "no chance". He would have some chance.
You ask me to compare Northerly with the champs you mentioned. I agree that he would struggle on the weights against all you listed. However, there seems to be a fall in quality of Cup fields since the great fields of the early to mid 90's. If you had asked me if Northerly could beat Central Park with 57 or Jezabeel or Brew or Rogan Josh I'd say a definate maybe.
For mine I think Bart has his strongest team since the early 90's. I am a big Magical Miss fan and I think Benarrivo is his Cup smoky if it gets a run at 49kgs. It's a shame that the WFA stars won't be there to test them out.

Good punters who do their own handicapping DO NOT use WFA scale in reference to handicap races. Don Scott for example.

Since I started using this approach and thru out the old outdated WFA approach, I have been winning more. If you adopted the same approach, you would too.

In the US, mares only get a 1.5kg advantage. The advantages mares and 3yos get in some parts of the year are too much under the WFA scale. Especially over shorter distances like 1600m.

Consider this, a 5yo gelding of avg ability gets the same weight as Northerly in a WFA event. Is this fair? Not based on ability. So to use the WFA scale as a reference point is totally flawed from the start.

The metro was over 2600m. You may be right about the timing though. I remember he had a problem with his shoes. Prior to the cox plate, track reports said he was flying and we saw the result of this later.

Handicapping 101

The most important things to consider when assessing a horse's weight in a handicap are
Proven ability, Distance, Previous winners of the race
(Forget about age and gender, if they are good enough they are old enough and gender doesn't matter)

Sunline in the Doni
Proven ability = tonnes
Distance = great miler
Previous winners = yes other great milers carried much more weight

3 ticks in all departments


Northerly in the Melb Cup
Proven ability = proven champ
Distance = never raced beyond 2040m, so must be a risk
Previous winners = only one winner in past 30 years with similar weight, so is a worry. Similar quality horses had much less weight.

Only 1 tick for Northerly.

[Equine Investor]

So much argument on weights here and yet there are not a lot of horses who can really get the 3200m.
Overseas horses are accustomed to running over these distances much more than our horses. That is why they have been able to figure in the finish so well.
The question is could Northerly or Sunline get the 3200m?

The answer-
Not in this lifetime!

[Hammers]

1. That good punter Don Scott went broke and topped himself. Among Don's 1950's beliefs were that times are irrelevant. In sprint racing in particular I believe that is clearly false.
2. Don't presume that I would win more money if I adopted your approach.
3. On what basis do you weight Give The Slip within 1.5kgs of Vinnie Roe?
4. Metrop October long weekend, then Cox Plate, then Cup. Jeune is one of the few Cup winners in recent times to not have the 2400 run as a lead up.
5. How do you compare 5YO's to 4YO's class wise if not by the WFA scale?

1. Don Scott made more money than you

2. "Don't presume that I would win more money if I adopted your approach." You can lead a horse to water but you ...

3. On what basis do you weight Give The Slip within 1.5kgs of Vinnie Roe? GTS would have won last year if not for track bias.

4. Metrop was the race before the cox, 21 days before. Also Saintly placed twice over 2400m in a previous campaign.

5. You compare them on the basis of proven ability. Some horses peak at 4, others at 5 or older. You consider how good the horse is not its age.

[Hammers]

1. Yes he won more than me and he also lost more than he won. That's why he's pushing daisies. Still, you follow him if it turns you on.
2. I don't follow.
3. Your appraisal of GTS in the 2001 Cup is probably right. I repeat my question though, how do you get a horse with GTS's record within 1.5 of Vinnie Roe?
4. Correctamundo
5. All horses are compared on ability - that's obvious. My question is how do you compare the same horse to itself 12 months on. Take Magical Miss. As a Scott disciple, how do you rate her first up in the Aurie's Star having not raced since being a November 3YO?

[mr magic]

Slow Horse,
Vinnie Roe is a genuine high class stayer.
If you give him 57.5 in the Cup you better not take up the bookmaker business.
Dermot Weld has set this horse for the 2002 Cup for over 12 months.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-09-03 17:09, Hammers wrote:
1. That good punter Don Scott went broke and topped himself. Among Don's 1950's beliefs were that times are irrelevant. In sprint racing in particular I believe that is clearly false.


Forgive my ignorance here, but I believe Don Scott died of a heart-attack and was not poor when he died. Also he was a much feared punter in the 70's and early 80's never in the 50's.
I could be wrong but....

Johnny Diamond tells me it was a conspiracy by bookies to leak to the press that Don committed suicide.
(For those who don't know, JD was a close friend of Don and a force to be reckoned with in the late 70's.)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-03 18:04 ]</font>

Vinnie Roe may well may a great horse but consider this -

1 He's got to travel 000's of kms to get here.
2 He has never raced in Australia.
3 He has to break a 30yr weight carrying record to win with 59kgs
4 Australia staying races are much different to overseas races

Other than Think Big, no horse has carried 57.5kgs or more to win the MC in the past 30 years, so 57.5kgs is a fair weight.

Every year we are told that UK horses are superior. Every year they flop or run a place at best. Remember Oscar Schindler, he was being rapped as unbeatable and he got flogged.

I would make a killing if I went into the bookmaking business, because I understand the relevance of weight. Most punters don't.

Hammers wrote:

1. "............ and he also lost more than he won." Says who? u? I think you are wrong.

2. "I don't follow" - you can't make him drink. If you adopted my approach U would have backed Sunline in the Doncaster. I had several thousand on her. And U wouldn't be backing horses with 58kgs in the MC.

3. "Your appraisal of GTS in the 2001 Cup is probably right. I repeat my question though, how do you get a horse with GTS's record within 1.5 of Vinnie Roe?"
A: GTS has proven himself under the race conditions and is a fast horse which helps with Aust-style racing.

5. All horses are compared on ability - that's obvious. My question is how do you compare the same horse to itself 12 months on. Take Magical Miss. As a Scott disciple, how do you rate her first up in the Aurie's Star having not raced since being a November 3YO?

A: Firstly, I'm not a Scott disciple, I merely use some of his principles (not all though). Last year MM beat 3yo fillies. So far this year she has beaten Northerly, Fields of O my God, DFC etc..
She has now proven herself against top company.

[mr magic]

Equine,
Don Scott cashed in his own chips. What possible motive would bookmakers have for saying he killed himself if he didn't and since when has the NSW Bookmakers Association had a mole in the Coroners Court?

His ideas were formulated in the 50's from stuff he read about Pittsburgh Phil who was a big punter in the early 20th Century in the USA. Don had no use for or knowledge of times,pace,speed maps or sectionals.

He was one dimentional, had his glory years then fell in a heap when other punters and bookmakers got their markets "more correct" than his. He tried betting in Melbourne and failed, flogged countless rehashes of his books and died broke.

His probated will which is a public document is testimony.

[Paddy]

Hey Hammers, you really got the joint rocking & rolling with this little posting!
Where were you yesterday, could have done with your help, was virtually chairing the forum all on my lonesome!

[topsy99]

one of pittsburgh phil's more memorable maxims was "in a field of 8 the odds of picking the winner are 7/1"
isn't it helpful coming from the world's most successful punter.

[Equine Investor]

mr magic, I stand corrected.

JD is inclined to embelish the truth a little.

:eek:

[Placegetter]

On 2002-09-03 16:02, slow horse wrote:
Every horse with 57kgs or more in this year's cup have no hope of winning - that includes Vinnie Roe 59, Northerly 58, Marienbard 57, Sky Heights 57. The best they can hope for is a placing behind one of the lightweights.


I agree with this comment, however preparation allowing, I feel my exotics will be built around Marienbard. Just a thought.

[Tennesse Blue]

hi everyone! great discussion..i would just like to add my views too :smile:

Firstly, overseas horses (for eg vinnie roe) are at a large disadvantage as they are not used to the hectic pace out of the barriers in the 3200 metre distance. This usually results in the overseas horses having to settle wide and is a huge negative especially if the overseas horse has to race close to the pace.

Secondly, 59.5 kg for Vinnie Roe is quite steep in my opinion. Im sure Vinnie Roe has a big heart but i wonder how big it is to carry that weight? Personally, i would ignore most overseas horses with a hefty weight and no track experience. I believe Vinnie Roe has a chance at placing, probably running the same kind of race and position as Persian Punch last year. Bart Cummings is the one to watch as he is the Cups king...he understands the build up a horse needs, the pace at the start and how to get a horse primed up for the Melbourne Cup and finish first past the post.

Some good questions to ask yourself before deciding on who you think will win the Melbourne cup is: Who is the classiest/ champion horse of the field on recent form? Will it run out the distance? Is the track rating to the horses' liking and will it be able to get a fairly cosy run from its barrier?

What are people's thoughts? I would be very interested to hear!

Yes, the aust style of racing is difficult for most overseas runners. GTS is an exception as he is a pace marker.

At this stage, I'm ruling out every horse with more than 56.5 kgs, because history is on my side. Other than that I'll wait for the lead up races.

[Hammers]

Paddy,
Yeah things were getting a little dull weren't they! Nothing like a lively debate just inside the parameters of the forum's behavioural rules to liven up the middle of the week.
Now down to the imports. I believe they are unfairly maligned and have in fact performed very well in the Cup since Vintage Crop's breakthrough. How are these for size and don't forget, they leave the good ones at home;
1993 - Vintage Crop WON 14/1 - 3 OS starters
1994 - no placings - 4 OS starters
1995 - Vintage Crop 3rd 8/1, Quick Ransom 4th - 3 OS starters
1996 - no placings - 3 OS starters
1997 - Harbour Dues 4th - 3 OS starters
1998 - Persian Punch 3rd 12/1, Taufan's Melody 4th ( won Caul Cup ), Yorkshire 5th - 6 OS starters
1999 - Central Park 2nd 50/1 (57.5kgs), Travelmate 5th - 4 OS starters
2000 - Arctic Owl 5th - 5 OS starters
2001 - Give The Slip 2nd, Persian Punch 3rd (57.5kgs) - 4 OS starters.
One winner and 5 placers in 9 years plus a Caulfield Cup winner. No disgrace really considering they make up only 15% of the field sizes. The trend seems to be that the horses with form up to 2 miles go okay - the 4000m plodders like Drum Taps have struggled with the speed. Better be careful wiping the 57+ horses too. Last two years two placings and Vintage Crop in 1995 had 59.
Methinks its going to be the round dozen for Bart this time though - he has that look about him again! Magical Miss Caul Cup, Benarrivo Melb Cup.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-09-03 22:47, Hammers wrote:
Methinks its going to be the round dozen for Bart this time though - he has that look about him again! Magical Miss Caul Cup, Benarrivo Melb Cup.


Hmmm Bart always looks the same whether he is winning or losing- like an unhappy owl!
:lol:

As to his chances for number 12... I think we haven't even seen the winner run yet this campaign, and it's not Bart's horse either.
The winner comes from New Zealand (keep it quiet, haven't backed it yet).
:grin:

[Paddy]

This thread seems to have gone cold, Hammers!
Let's see if we can rekindle some interest.

I hear that Fred Kersley is seriously considering the Caulfield Cup for Northerly and then backing him up in the Cox Plate.

So is Northerly a chance with 58kgs for the Caulfield Cup. I suggest so. Distance, track and style of racing (to win this little beauty) much more to Northerly's liking than the Melbourne Cup.

[Hammers]

Greg Childs said after the Craiglee that he thought Northerly was now an ideal Cups horse.
Judging by his inabilty to get away from Le Zagaleta I think Greg and me might just be right.

[Rain Lover]

I don't think you'll be seeing Northerly in any of the major handicaps this spring. Kersley would have put him past 2,000m prior to this if that was a goal. He knows that he's going to have a major slice of the prizemoney in the Plate if the horse is fit on the day. Why chance it by running him into the ground at Caulfield or Flemington??

Hey Hammers, I'm a times advocate too but the old Legal Eagles syndicate was pretty advanced for it's time, and some of their ideas still hold eg. framing your own market to sort out the overlays.

[Hammers]

On 2002-09-03 14:16, Hammers wrote:
I wonder if the people who said Sunline was thrown into the Doncaster with 2.5kgs OVER weight for age will think that Northerly is thrown into the Melbourne Cup with 0.5kgs UNDER weight for age?
Do not be under the illusion that the Melbourne Cup is a stronger race than the Doncaster either. The quality of two mile horses in this country is quite poor and when you consider the placings that the imports have achieved in the past nine years it supports that view. Give The Slip and Central Park for example are pacemakers for better stablemates in Europe yet both went mighty close to winning.
So is Northerly a chance at 58kgs? Providing he is trained to run two miles he should have a crack in my opinion.
Any thoughts?

Time to re-kindle this thread I think.
I have absolutely no doubt that Northerly can win the MC if the connections are willing to try.
The horse relaxes beautifully and is impossible to get past.
I can see him settling second or third, grinding to the front at the 400 and defying all challengers. If Super Impose could run 3.5 lengths 4th in a Cup with 60 Northerly is a certainty to at least fill a hole with the same weight.
I wonder if the people who worry about his heart being broken have considered what a trip to Japan to run against the best in the world and carry 59kgs would do. Did that ridiculous decision to contest the Railway with 61 last year break his heart? Did Super Impose break his heart? Did Gunsynd in '72 with well over 60kgs?
The way the horse raced yesterday just 7 days after winning with 58 I'd say even Kersley is still learning how tough this horse is.
Have a go Fred and give the imports something to worry about besides bloody Rain Gauge. It's a chance to make history and go down beside Rising Fast as the toughest handicapping stayer of the past 50 years.

[Paddy]

On 2002-09-05 06:32, Paddy wrote:
This thread seems to have gone cold, Hammers!
Let's see if we can rekindle some interest.

I hear that Fred Kersley is seriously considering the Caulfield Cup for Northerly and then backing him up in the Cox Plate.

So is Northerly a chance with 58kgs for the Caulfield Cup. I suggest so. Distance, track and style of racing (to win this little beauty) much more to Northerly's liking than the Melbourne Cup.


Make em eat humble pie Hammers!

Only guarantee – if Northerly does start he will be poor value on the day.

[loadandlockett]

northerly has already won the two hardest races in australasia,the melbourne cup is half a raffle(not taking anything away from the great horses that have won it over the years).
4million or 12 million?(easy equation for me).