Standard of Sydney Racing

[Punter4211]

Hi Guys, (and ladies)

Haven't been on this site for a while, but hey you're no forgotten....

Anyway, here's my gripe...

I am disgusted at the standard of city races put on for meetings in Sydney, since the E.I. problem finished.

I just spent many hours assessing the races for Saturday and a deep feeling od despair came over me.. several races are poor quality even for a country meet.

finding betting opportunities among the races presented is really a serious task of chance... There's no reliable form to go on, and the runners are such poor quality you really cant rely on it.

When are we going to see a return to some decent races, not quality races, just regular class 6 or better races, where some form can be relied upon, like it used to be..

If the race clubs put on a higher standard of race, they'll attract a higher standard of racehorse...

Right now they are catering for the lowest common denominator which puts the better horses on the outer..

C'mon AJC & STC get with it

[crash]

The standards are poor in every state at the moment, not just Sydney.
A good reason to become a $2 punter maybe, as it will be a great day for the bookies I reckon.

[King Cugat]

G'day Oz

Sydneys not like the olden days huh. I think the BOBS system is slowly hurting NSW + Sydney and in the not so distant future the Magic Millions sales will have many many more smaller sales associated with it with Inglis's Newmarket ring slowly falling apart with only the Easter Sales left. << They already contribute to around 70% of their revenue.

Why?

As a breeder why would i want to sell or race my horse in NSW when its the only bonus system that doesnt reward the breeder. In VIC & Qld i can take a mare to one of their stallions, sell my horse and even though i'm no longer associated with it thereafter i can receive prizemmoney as the breeder. Firstly i will target one of their stallions, secondly target their sales hoping the owner actually lives and wants to race there. Thirdly if say i have a QRIS nom'd horse a large percentage of the time the owners will want to race in QLD for themselves to get the bonus. Hence the choice in some cases of where a horse will run begins at the breeder. The BOBS scheme is very very ordinary in regards to its purpose.
If theres no carnival or big races in Sydney then horses will stay in their own states and race for bonuses. It wont change unless BOBS change and in my opinion will only get worse.
The Vic system even allows the breeder to go to NSW in year 1. Then if going to a VIC stallion in year 2 will let you nom them both of them for the VIC system allowing the breeder to have the chance for x2 lots of bonus.

BOBS stands for BREEDERS OWNERS BONUS SCHEME

They just forgot about the 1st bit.....the BREEDER. Absolutley nothing in it at all as an incentive to take your mares to NSW stallions, sell in NSW or race in NSW.

[Punter4211]

Well, thanks for that insight Kingy. It appears that the E.I. crisis is not totally to blame, but has exposed the underbelly of the problem.

I notice that Befair betting totals are down significantly and so the TAB pools must also be down. If the NSW goverment is losing its cash cow youd think theyd wake up...

It does appear to me that the NSW goverment is happy to allow the racing industry in the city to starve to death..

Glad Im a Queendlander

[Punter4211]

The standards are poor in every state at the moment, not just Sydney.
A good reason to become a $2 punter maybe, as it will be a great day for the bookies I reckon.
A sit and watch day, I agree... But that sad thing is that these are the runners getting ready for the next weeks...It goes on and on..

[pharfromoz]

ive been doing pretty decent betting horses first and second races off the lay off from june/july and september.

especially maidens that ran huge on debuts but were sidelined since june/july.

[pharfromoz]

1st at sydney

#2- 2nd start since may
#4- 1st start since may
#5- 2nd start since july

#2 and #5 needing this race.

#4 c. connor horses have been running decent the last two weeks.

[pharfromoz]

rosehill 3rd- #5 white cap

another street cry runner down under.

[Punter4211]

ive been doing pretty decent betting horses first and second races off the lay off from june/july and september.

especially maidens that ran huge on debuts but were sidelined since june/july.
Well done Parrformoz... Here I am looking for the perfest world and there you are happily taking advantage of an oportunity... Thinking outside the square..

Well done..

[pharfromoz]

Well done Parrformoz... Here I am looking for the perfest world and there you are happily taking advantage of an oportunity... Thinking outside the square..

Well done..thanks ozpunter.

worked out real well today.

rosehill race 1- #2 why're you waiting- 2nd.....2nd run off layoff- may

rosehill race 2- #4 guillotine- 1st.........2nd run off layoff- april

rosehill race 4- #3 canary island- 1st.....2nd run off layoff- august
.....................#6 subtle glane- 2nd......2nd run off layoff- august
.....................#7 mr blue sky- 3rd .......2nd run off layoff- may

rosehill race 5- #5 treat- 1st.....................1st run off layoff- august
......................#9 regal melody- 2nd- .....1st run layoff - march

rosehill 7th- #8 party crasher- 1st.......... 2nd run off layoff- june

rosehill 8th- #1 matilda princess- 3rd- ....2nd run off layoff- may
.................#2 angel girl- 1st- .............2nd run off layoff- august
.................#8 tresor- 2nd- .................1st run off layoff- september

was fortunate for it to go good in the last at moone valley

#4 let loushe- 1st- .........2nd run off layoff- may
#12 high intensity- 3rd-.....1st run off layoff- feb

not to many fresh horses running on the card today at moonee valley.

[King Cugat]

genious.........against what most would go for,

but, for now

.......genious

[pharfromoz]

canberra 1st race

#3 red captive- 1st- ......2nd start layoff july.

and it rolls on.

got 5/1 up here in the states.

[pharfromoz]

canberra

1st race- #3 red captive- 1st-............2nd start layoff july

3rd race- #1 hyson green- 2nd- .........1st start layoff july

5th race- #6 hurtful- 1st- .................1st start layoff may
.............#4 beau secret- 2nd-...........2nd start layoff august
.............#3 roly dancer- 3rd- ...........2nd start layoff july

6th race- #1 power stitch- 1st- .........1st start layoff august
..............#4 ciro- 2nd-.....................1st start layoff june

7th race- #3 croation prince- 3rd- ......2nd run layoff july.....this race killed me- approach the bench to good for my fresh horse picks#2,#5 and #7.broke track record for 1400. ouch!

lets keep this going tomorrow and the next day and the next day and the next day. this wont last forever.

[Punter4211]

Dear PharfromOz,

Ok, I've arrived in Darwin, scratch the holiday for a bit, let me get down to work...

I am very interested in what you are doing as it is a winning formula, laying rnners when their real chance of winning is less than what their price offers is a ticket to success... Any maths genius would agree..

I have a couple of questions though...

Firstly, on Betfair, as with most markets there are distinct groups of runners, those in the market and those out of the market..

Trying to lay ones out of the market at reasonable odds is damm near impossible and many don't attract any bets at all... (this is where bookies clean up when the win)

So I gather taht the runners you are laying, are ones more or less in the market where there is adequate investments to allow you to lay at a reasonable price..

Could you give me some idea as to what your market cut off point would be, say $4, or $5 or more?

I've tried laying runners out to $10 and it only returns a dribble and ouch it hurts when they win.


Second Question

In your experience, what would be a reasonable relationship between your "bet to lose figure" for each race and the bank you have in reserve?

For example if I was to "bet to lose $100" what sort of bank should I allocate to cover those times when a number of rotters get up and win on you?

Do you have any statictic's regarding your activities?

I believe I might be able to automate the selection process based on what you've outlined so far, which means that you dont need to pour over form for hours before a meeting..(I'm a programmer, I didnt tell you that)

Perhaps you'd like to talk to me privately about this so you can email me at OzPUnter@gmail.com..

( I do look at that email box guys... Promise) even though I have been slow answering it before.. I will be looking at it daily over the next couple of weeks as it's plastered right in front of me on my laptops desktop.

Cheers PharfromOz, hope to hear from you soon.

[pharfromoz]

Dear PharfromOz,

Ok, I've arrived in Darwin, scratch the holiday for a bit, let me get down to work...

I am very interested in what you are doing as it is a winning formula, laying rnners when their real chance of winning is less than what their price offers is a ticket to success... Any maths genius would agree..

I have a couple of questions though...

Firstly, on Betfair, as with most markets there are distinct groups of runners, those in the market and those out of the market..

Trying to lay ones out of the market at reasonable odds is damm near impossible and many don't attract any bets at all... (this is where bookies clean up when the win)

So I gather taht the runners you are laying, are ones more or less in the market where there is adequate investments to allow you to lay at a reasonable price..

Could you give me some idea as to what your market cut off point would be, say $4, or $5 or more?

I've tried laying runners out to $10 and it only returns a dribble and ouch it hurts when they win.


Second Question

In your experience, what would be a reasonable relationship between your "bet to lose figure" for each race and the bank you have in reserve?

For example if I was to "bet to lose $100" what sort of bank should I allocate to cover those times when a number of rotters get up and win on you?

Do you have any statictic's regarding your activities?

I believe I might be able to automate the selection process based on what you've outlined so far, which means that you dont need to pour over form for hours before a meeting..(I'm a programmer, I didnt tell you that)

Perhaps you'd like to talk to me privately about this so you can email me at OzPUnter@gmail.com..

( I do look at that email box guys... Promise) even though I have been slow answering it before.. I will be looking at it daily over the next couple of weeks as it's plastered right in front of me on my laptops desktop.

Cheers PharfromOz, hope to hear from you soon.heres u.s. results for friday and saturday- $2 payouts. the link didnt work on the email so ill link it here.
saturday
http://www.australianracing.com/index.php?template=results&id=1970&section_id=1

friday
http://www.australianracing.com/index.php?template=results&id=1969&section_id=1

[Punter4211]

Hi Pharfromoz,

I woke up this morning at 3am... Wide awake with one thought in my mind.. Oh poo - Dammm... The email address is ozpunter01@gmail.com not theone I gave you... Sorry about that..

I'll be doing some research today...

I'll see you later then.

OzPunter

[crash]

Dear PharfromOz,

I am very interested in what you are doing as it is a winning formula, laying rnners when their real chance of winning is less than what their price offers is a ticket to success... Any maths genius would agree..



How do you [accurately] work that out?

[Punter4211]

How do you [accurately] work that out?What I mean Crash is that if you bet on an outcome where the return is greater than the actual odds of sucess you must win in the long run...

If there are 10 balls in a barrel the odds of any one being drawn (from the ten) is 1 in ten or 9-1 ($10.00 in the new money) if the odds are $11.00 you will make money on average.. The profit on return is greater than the cost of the losses.. so you'll make money... That's why TAB punters must lose because they are betting into a 120% market.

Why am I trying to explain this to you crash? You probably know more about it than I do...

Anyway I think PharfromOz has his wits about him and has come up with something really positive, even if he dosent realize it's potential as yet, and I agree with an earlier comment, that it wont last, but I believe that if you can capture the essence of what he's doing you can profit from it long term...

My email is ozpunter01@gmail.com... stay tuned...

OzPunter (on hols in Darwin)

[crash]

Just pointing out a bit of reality here, not trying to rev anyone up. Balls in a barrel don't really cut it as an answer. Perhaps PharfromOz can answer the question maybe?

Anyone who can accurately decide what chance a horse has of winning or losing, has a license to print money. Baring hindsight, there are just too many unknown factors involved in horse racing to do it successfully without a crystal ball.

[Punter4211]

Just pointing out a bit of reality here, not trying to rev anyone up. Balls in a barrel don't really cut it as an answer. Perhaps PharfromOz can answer the question maybe?

Anyone who can accurately decide what chance a horse has of winning or losing, has a license to print money. Baring hindsight, there are just too many unknown factors involved in horse racing to do it successfully without a crystal ball.I agree Crash, there are so many factors you'd need a super computer and a super program to evaluate them all..A PC just dosent cut it...

However with can aproximate and generalise, to that end using sensible assesments we can group runners into those with a serious winning chance and those with little or none.

From PharFromOz's point of view it is easier to lose a race than to win it, and some runners with tell tale characteristics fall into a general group of losers, which turns our attention to the price on offer.

If the price on offer is shorter than their realistic odds they offer a good lay prospect, and if more lose than win, you can make a profit long term.

I'm not talking about winning every race, just those that offer the right instances..

By being selective I believe the PharfromOz has taken a very professional approach. You would know that all he is doing is exactly what bookmakers the world over do and TAB's and Poker Mackines are just computerised ways of doing the same thing.

There are many opportunities every week where prices offered for some runners are serious bad value, by laying these you must be in winning territory..

Ozpunter

[Punter4211]

Hi PharFromOz an Crash,

First question, how much value do you place on a recent Trial run?...
Now I know that hard racing is the only real way to get a horse fully fit and there are also runners that perform well with little or no preperation but when you see that a runner has had two maybe three trail runs and say that ran well, and also consider the quality of stable they are coming from, how much importance should be placed on average to better Trial runs?

Second question, can I get your opinion on the following runners, before they run on Sat..

The first date is their last start and the second is when they trialed recently

Race 1 STAR CITY HANDICAP Maiden Hcp 1200Mtrs
1 ASTRONOMICAL Carrying 58.00 Wednesday, 2 May 2007
4 SILKEN APPEAL Saturday, 30 June 2007 Wednesday, 26 December 2007
6 DIESEL FORCE Monday, 12 March 2007 Wednesday, 26 December 2007
7 FRENCHS FOREST Wednesday, 26 December 2007

Race 3 TATTERSALLS CLUB SPRINT 3Y C&G 0 - 71 1100Mtrs CG Last
1 CIGAR ROYALE 59.00 Saturday, 14 April 2007
3 BRUNEI TALE 58.00 Monday, 17 December 2007
4 SUBORDINATE (NZ) Monday, 11 June 2007 Sunday, 30 December 2007
5 COLT FORTYFIVE
7 YANKEE CLIPPER Tuesday, 18 December 2007

Race 4 SCHWEPPES HANDICAP F&M 0 - 76 1400Mtrs

1 DOUBLE ELLE (NZ) 59.00 Saturday, 18 August 2007 Friday, 28 December 2007

Race 5 BLUES POINT HOTEL HCP 0 - 93 1200Mtrs
1 CAPE BRETON (NZ) Wednesday, 25 April 2007 Tuesday, 21 August 2007
3 GEIGERON Saturday, 4 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007
5 KINCHARM (NZ) Saturday, 18 August 2007

Race 6 CARRINGTON STAKES CARRINGTON 1100Mtrs
2 BISCAYNE BAY Saturday, 15 September 2007
4 FOX LAKE Saturday, 30 December 2006 Saturday, 26 May 2007
6 REAL STRIKE Tuesday, 28 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007
9 ROSECUTTER Saturday, 18 August 2007 Wednesday, 28 November 2007
10 SHEEZVALUE (NZ) Wednesday, 3 October 2007

Race 7 SPORTSMAN HANDICAP C C 1400Mtrs
6 ALHAAJES (USA) Friday, 27 July 2007 Friday, 28 December 2007
9 PORTIMAO

Race 8 HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP 3Y F 0 - 71 1100Mtrs
3 BEYONCE'S STAR 58.00 Saturday, 18 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007
4 TUCHUZY 58.00 Thursday, 23 August 2007 Tuesday, 18 September 2007
8 FILLE MAJESTIQUE Saturday, 21 July 2007
10 ROSE OF CIMMARON Thursday, 17 May 2007


Lets see what happens... It all depends on what sort of lay price you can obtain

OzPunter

[crash]

Ozpunter,

Yes, I agree with your previous post on page 2. There are lots of exceptions to horses running to form [longshots get up regularly], but the law of averages should be on PharFromOz method's side.

Not sure who you are addressing in your above post [both?], but I'll answer your first question.

Regarding how much value I put on recent trials, well I'm usually very wary of them. I backed a horse last Sat. because it was from a very good stable that is performing well at the moment. The horse had won a recent 900m trial by over 5 lengths, but come race day it did nothing!

Some horses do well at trials and others don't. How they perform in a race though can be anyones guess and it's next race after a trial is often not the one it's being set to win !
I generally rate a horse on past form etc. and ignore trials results. Other punters might get something out of them though.

[Punter4211]

I agree Crash,


I usually put trainers into two categories, those who know what they are doing and those that dont..

When I see a horse coming back to racing in trials and their from a good stable I go looking for the race/s that they may be set for...

Then I check to see if they are a first up specialist

Othewise, it's just an exercise run..

Ozpunter

[pharfromoz]

in post #6 i talked shortly about the layoff runners. but i was looking at it as maybe those horses were effected by the quarantines or something having to do with the outbreak in new south wales. caught a trend were these horses coming back fresh and winning against horses that were running all summer(your summer) or having 3 or more races. i was seeing horses that had great debuts being put aside and coming back and crushing. heard a track announcer that was wondering why a trainer had kept a horse away from the track for so long after a great debut. it was strange that he couldnt put things together.

really i just saw a trend and ran with it and it been successful so far.you guys are in australia maybe you guys can tweak it even more.im looking at a map to find out what tracks were affected in the area.

but im riding it till the end. where betting is concerned i dont bet with scared money. i have a good eye for physical appearance on horses,i look at the favorite and compare him to his previous runs and if i thin he/she will fail i unload from anywhere 1 to three horses to win. 1 horse ill go wp if he is big odds ill gow wps. if im betting two horses and one is a longshot ill go win on the non longshot and win/show on the longshot. i adjust accoring to the post time odds. sometimes it hurts me because here in the u.s. ill see horses drop from 9/1 to 5/2 after crossing the wire. just a gamble im will to take.

[Punter4211]

Dear PharFromOz,

I had a good look at you concept on Randwick today, new years day.

I'm pleased to say I didn't strike any winners (save one race with 4 runners) but I have a few reservations.

Firstly the odds of these runnes are quite long, and if one got up I'd have a strugle to recover... The other thing is that on Betfair its hard to get layed on a the lesser chances. The only way you can be sure to get a lay is to accept the sometimes outrageous odds on offer...

e.g. A runner could have a back price of $6 and a lay price of $25 +

How do you get around this problem?

Otherwise I think that with refinement it has real potential, but like i say, lookout for the long odds that get up.. There were a few today that got a place, so close is not good enough, but scary just the same..

I think its a stroke of genious, PharFromOz, all it needs is refinement and I'm sure I could automate it so that there is no need to pour over form to find the last starts etc. (of course you'd need acess to my 50k+ record database)

You're in my book as one thinking punter..

Keep up the good work.

And a happy and surely prosperous new year..

One obvious refinement, (before Crash chimes in) is that you dont have to bet on everything.. By being super selective you might get down to one bet a day or even every other day.. If you make it a reasonable sized bet you can see an meaningful return being reliased...

Happy new year EVERYBODY !

OzPunter

[pharfromoz]

can the fresh horses do it tonight at musswellbrook?

just nailed the 2nd race.

had wins on #1 secret dane,#5 somemagic and #7 little topar.

#1 secret dane ran away at 9/1.

#5 somemagic- 4th
#7 little topar late scratch at gate

can someone tell me where stawell is located.

[King Cugat]

victoria

http://www.travelmate.com.au/mapmaker/mapmaker.asp

zoom out

[pharfromoz]

victoriathank you

[King Cugat]

speaking of horses that put in a good debut and i havent seen since

Steel Giant.
1st start i think it broke the track or class record, down Canberra way, from memory.......anybody?

s'ok i looked up barrier trails >>> had one 30th Dec.
This might be a hot one >> Steel Giant

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 3rd- #3 magenta shores
......................... #5 regal academy
......................... #11 present ahms

beat the favorite.

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 3rd- #3 magenta shores
......................... #5 regal academy
......................... #11 present ahms

beat the favorite. #3 magenta shores- 3rd- $1.60(nsw)/$3.10(us)
#5 regal academy- 4th
#11 present ahms- 1st- $14.70 $3.30(nsw)/$39.10 $15.90 $12.40(us)

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 4th everyone is a fresh horse.

on the freshs horse im getting 17/1 right now on the #2 and 5/1 on the #1.

#1 and #3 could inhale them late but im skipping this race all odds have leveled out now.

no wager

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 5th- #1 covert
.........................#7 royal foote
.........................#13 chance of lightnin
.........................#14 precious find

fresh and ready roll!

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 5th- #1 covert
.........................#7 royal foote
.........................#13 chance of lightnin
.........................#14 precious find

fresh and ready roll!#1 covert- 3rd- $1.80(nsw)/$3.60(us)
#7 royal foote- 4th
#13 chance of lightnin- 1st- $5.20 $1.80(nsw)/$13.70 $7.20 $3.50(us)
#14 precious find- out

that race ended up being scary because i cover bet so i can take the #14 at 16/1. but right before they go in the gate the #14 is 5/2. OH SCARY!

but lucky i didnt get beat by the fresh horse i left out #11 and ended up with a small profit.

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 7th- everyone is coming back from a spell.

but i go for #1 shinko sensei.....looked very impressive on the track.

[pharfromoz]

muswellbrook 7th- everyone is coming back from a spell.

but i go for #1 shinko sensei.....looked very impressive on the track.#1 shinko sensei- 3rd- $3.90(nsw)/$10.50(us)

was flying late but didnt quite get there.

[pharfromoz]

randwick 2nd

beat the favorite #2

#3 ladys counsel- 25/1
#4 paris chic- 25/2
#7 please dash- 21/1
#8 raise- 24/1

<!-- / message --><!-- controls --> im getting sweet prices to cover the win.

[King Cugat]

it smells worse then Playwright oz that fav. Why are they so short. I think the betfair layers are on the right track.

[pharfromoz]

it smells worse then Playwright oz that fav. Why are they so short. I think the betfair layers are on the right track.i got nailed by BAD RIDE BLAKE!

that hurts. i can usually throw him out for the win.

#5 ended up 16/1
#6 ended up at 90/1- wow- was fresh but didnt impress.

ive never looked at betfair. im in america and usually just compare between our line and what TAB(NSW)(VIC)

i should give betfair a look.

[pharfromoz]

randwick 3rd

#2 gifted music
#8 cymaron
#10 mantova.......tim clarks the man!

[Ozgunner]

Randwick 3rd #9 ESTANCIA RIOS #10 MANTOVA #1 BANK ROBBER

[Dancing Sun]

Randwick race5 #9

[pharfromoz]

Randwick 3rd #9 ESTANCIA RIOS #10 MANTOVA #1 BANK ROBBERnice call ozgunner