Svenvlad
22nd August 2008, 11:29 PM
Hi All,
Thought i'd post some thoughts on a few of the races tomorrow. Hope we can find a winner or 2.
Doomben
Race 1 - I don't mind Stature here. This is not a strong race to start with and this bloke has raced reasonably well around some OK horses in the past. Jad is proving very difficult to catch, but he has enough talent to run a race here. I've got him second. And for 3rd i've put in Pelltro. It was a good run last time, but the fact he has never run a place at Doomben is somewhat of a concern.
Race 2 - Who would know. I've settled on Rollins simply because i think he can take up a forward position and there is not much speed here. Most of the horses can return similar numbers, so it will probaby be down to the one with the best run. Rollins is my guess. Cayman Islands has to be some sort of a chance back to 1600m after the good run 2 back. And Estrellito is not hopeless at the bottom. He might be able to run a cheeky race at nice odds. God speed if you decide to have a bet here though.
Race 3 - Don't mind Blood n Bone here. It was a pretty good run last time and he gets to his most favoured distance now and so should be ready to win. Bitabiff has found a new lease of life and can certainly figure here if he gets the right run. Sommersea Drive is up in grade but is racing extremely well and has to be given his chance. Very open race again though.
Race 4 - Difficult to go past Art Success here. He is the class runner and even though he has had a bit of time between runs and he has his share of weight, i think he can still win. Ready When You Are doesn't win out of turn, but can stick on well enough and if there is any weakness with Art Success then he'll be right there in the firing line. Derivative Receipt is next best. If he finds his best, he's a chance. I just can't seem to pick his best.
Race 5 - I think there is only 2 chances here - Tripitz and Double or Nothin. I've settled on Double or Nothin as she gives every indication that she will be better suited to the longer distances and i think from the good draw she can take up a nice position and be very difficult to hold out at the end of the race. Tripitz won well over ground last time and has some good form around some of the better 3yo's in Brsbance last season and so can win without surprising. Kintyre Conquest can fill the 3rd placing if they drop him back and leave him one last shot at the end.
Race 6 - Like My Limit here. His numbers are consistently higher than his opposition here and so if he can hold them, or marginally improve, i think he'll win. The alley is a little bit awkward, but if Scriven can find a position for him maybe 1 off the fence, he's a solid winning chance. Punch Up can also figure if he gets in from the awkward alley. He may also appreciate dropping back in distance here. The balance of the field, outside of My Limit, is not all that strong either. Line by Line is consistent and so might be able to fill a placing.
Race 7 - Maybe Sashenka. She is second up after a long spell which i'm not very happy with, but she is the class runner and is weighted to win. Icedane has returned some reasonable figures lately and if she repeats any of those, she'll prove hard to hold out here. Old Trick may be a distance doubt, but he has talent and can figure if he gets the right run. Tough race.
Race 8 - I think Notre Amour can win this. The 3yos of last season are doing very well when stepping up to this sort of class in the city in Brisbane and i think this bloke can continue the trend. He has an awkward alley, but his form reads much better than most of his opposition and he also races pretty well fresh. Lennon for second as he has been racing consistently lately in similar grade and i could easily see him up there tomorrow. Morning Colours for third because he has some talent but i can never seem to get him on his right day.
Best for the day would be My Limit and Double or Nothin with a nice eachway chance to Notre Amour.
Good luck with whatever you decide to have a go at :)
Sven
Thought i'd post some thoughts on a few of the races tomorrow. Hope we can find a winner or 2.
Doomben
Race 1 - I don't mind Stature here. This is not a strong race to start with and this bloke has raced reasonably well around some OK horses in the past. Jad is proving very difficult to catch, but he has enough talent to run a race here. I've got him second. And for 3rd i've put in Pelltro. It was a good run last time, but the fact he has never run a place at Doomben is somewhat of a concern.
Race 2 - Who would know. I've settled on Rollins simply because i think he can take up a forward position and there is not much speed here. Most of the horses can return similar numbers, so it will probaby be down to the one with the best run. Rollins is my guess. Cayman Islands has to be some sort of a chance back to 1600m after the good run 2 back. And Estrellito is not hopeless at the bottom. He might be able to run a cheeky race at nice odds. God speed if you decide to have a bet here though.
Race 3 - Don't mind Blood n Bone here. It was a pretty good run last time and he gets to his most favoured distance now and so should be ready to win. Bitabiff has found a new lease of life and can certainly figure here if he gets the right run. Sommersea Drive is up in grade but is racing extremely well and has to be given his chance. Very open race again though.
Race 4 - Difficult to go past Art Success here. He is the class runner and even though he has had a bit of time between runs and he has his share of weight, i think he can still win. Ready When You Are doesn't win out of turn, but can stick on well enough and if there is any weakness with Art Success then he'll be right there in the firing line. Derivative Receipt is next best. If he finds his best, he's a chance. I just can't seem to pick his best.
Race 5 - I think there is only 2 chances here - Tripitz and Double or Nothin. I've settled on Double or Nothin as she gives every indication that she will be better suited to the longer distances and i think from the good draw she can take up a nice position and be very difficult to hold out at the end of the race. Tripitz won well over ground last time and has some good form around some of the better 3yo's in Brsbance last season and so can win without surprising. Kintyre Conquest can fill the 3rd placing if they drop him back and leave him one last shot at the end.
Race 6 - Like My Limit here. His numbers are consistently higher than his opposition here and so if he can hold them, or marginally improve, i think he'll win. The alley is a little bit awkward, but if Scriven can find a position for him maybe 1 off the fence, he's a solid winning chance. Punch Up can also figure if he gets in from the awkward alley. He may also appreciate dropping back in distance here. The balance of the field, outside of My Limit, is not all that strong either. Line by Line is consistent and so might be able to fill a placing.
Race 7 - Maybe Sashenka. She is second up after a long spell which i'm not very happy with, but she is the class runner and is weighted to win. Icedane has returned some reasonable figures lately and if she repeats any of those, she'll prove hard to hold out here. Old Trick may be a distance doubt, but he has talent and can figure if he gets the right run. Tough race.
Race 8 - I think Notre Amour can win this. The 3yos of last season are doing very well when stepping up to this sort of class in the city in Brisbane and i think this bloke can continue the trend. He has an awkward alley, but his form reads much better than most of his opposition and he also races pretty well fresh. Lennon for second as he has been racing consistently lately in similar grade and i could easily see him up there tomorrow. Morning Colours for third because he has some talent but i can never seem to get him on his right day.
Best for the day would be My Limit and Double or Nothin with a nice eachway chance to Notre Amour.
Good luck with whatever you decide to have a go at :)
Sven