My Tips

[stebbo]

16:32 wyo R07 # 3 Our Mosstique Rank4aaa
Has quite a few IV’s against it and this shows in it’s N price which is a bit of a concern. Trainer below par jockey is good. 2nd up today has won 1st up but never 2nd up. Is a Rank4, rated $5.00 in the paper and at that could be value. Yes $4.50

[stebbo]

16:55 gee R08 # 2 Will's Power
Good consistent form (and at this track) puts this well into this. Has run and rated well all runs this prep with “worst” performance it’s win here 3 starts back. Excellent jockey and trainer. Anything over $2.40 is value.

[stebbo]

13:05 stw R04 #12 Al's Best Mate
Has been racing in much stronger company than this. Astute trainer and excellent jockey will give this every chance. Three runs to date all rated well past what’s required to win this today. Rated $3.90 in the paper will be a steal at that. Yes $2.50.

[stebbo]

13:50 wag R02 # 3 Miramar
Rank4 with excellent WT price. Stepping up to 1400m for the first time, won last prep at 1300m. Excellent jockey and trainer just on par, in a small field this has a reasonable chance. Rated equal outsider in the paper at $5.50, there is no clear leader in this race and tactics will play a big part. If the track stays dead this will be value at $3.00 or higher. Yes $3.00
Edit: Still a bet on the Good track.

[tevez17]

13:50 wag R02 # 3 Miramar
Rank4 with excellent WT price. Stepping up to 1400m for the first time, won last prep at 1300m. Excellent jockey and trainer just on par, in a small field this has a reasonable chance. Rated equal outsider in the paper at $5.50, there is no clear leader in this race and tactics will play a big part. If the track stays dead this will be value at $3.00 or higher. Yes $3.00
Edit: Still a bet on the Good track.

Cheers mate!! :)

[stebbo]

15:53 str R07 # 1 Token Promise
Quality 3Kg claiming app on board brings this right into it on weights. Graphs indicate a consistent improvement. Ran 1300 last start after a freshen up, this is it’s distance. Trainer stats excellent. $4.90 in the paper is value and duckegg at last start will help retain value. Yes $3.00

[Merriguy]

And "cheers" again!! Well done.

$6.30/$2.50 on Unitab.

[stebbo]

12:50 ips R01 # 4 Spanish Fling
Rank4 with all three runs to date under the line. Good jockey and decent trainer. Q100 rater and IV’s are in it’s favor. Rated $2.80 in the paper, will expect this to start a bit shorter. Well down in class for this and will be value at $2.20 or more. Yes $2.20

[tevez17]

Ah only seen this now sadly... congrads on another winner mate...

[stebbo]

15:02 hob R05 # 1 Helter Swelter
One start one win on SLOW going 1st start 14 days ago. Excellent trainer and good jockey stats. Always wary of horses jumping from maiden to class 1 and will not want to back too short. Yes $2.50

[stebbo]

13:53 tow R02 # 7 Vulcan
Q100 rater showing steady improvement on the graphs. Rank4 and IV's in it's favor, a good s/r at this distance and overall. Excellent jockey and trainer. Will start short but value at $2.00 or more. Yes $2.00

[Kingston Town]

Thanks for the tip Stebbo, he does look a particularly good thing, winning & running 2nd with 60+kg, meets an average lot at WFA, draws 2 and leads making his own luck. Taking the shorts won't worry me either

[Kingston Town]

Didn't give a yelp, that's racing

[crash]

13:53 tow R02 # 7 Vulcan
Q100 rater showing steady improvement on the graphs. Rank4 and IV's in it's favor, a good s/r at this distance and overall. Excellent jockey and trainer. Will start short but value at $2.00 or more. Yes $2.00

I'm not saying an evens bet is a bad bet, but I think 'value at $2' becomes a very subjective measurement. Requires a 50% win SR just to break even. Out of curiosity, at what win SR % does that bet price become value [very worthwhile] and how realistically achievable is it?

[stebbo]

I'm not saying an evens bet is a bad bet, but I think 'value at $2' becomes a very subjective measurement. Requires a 50% win SR just to break even. Out of curiosity, at what win SR % does that bet price become value [very worthwhile] and how realistically achievable is it?
All value is subjective. 'Value at $2.00' is no more subjective than 'Value at $5.00'.

Out of curiosity, at what win SR % does that bet price become value
Greater than 50%.

The point is somewhat moot as at $1.60 this was not a bet for me.

[crash]

I agree.

Ironically, your winners were the ones above $3 [uni-tab]
15:53 str R07 # 1 Token Promise 10/9 3.00 [sp 6.30] won
13:50 wag R02 # 3 Miramar 8/9 3.00 [sp 3.40] won
with the only shorty 12:50 ips R01 # 4 Spanish Fling 11/9 2.20 [sp fav. 2.40] won.

Considering there were only 3 bets backable above your 'value' amount for 3 wins [I think] and the other bets were below the amounts you put on them [mostly odds-on], that's nice going.

[stebbo]

15:05 bep R01 # 6 Outside Influence
Has been running in higher grade than this mostly. Q100, Rank4 with all IV’s in it’s favor. Good jockey and trainer stats. Has shown improvement at both it’s runs this prep and is well down in this. Should figure in the finish. Rated $4.80 in the paper can’t see it starting anywhere near that. Will be value at $2.80 or above. Yes $2.80.

[Stix]

Hey Crash

...... back before computers, did you used to go through a lot of white-out?

Stix

[crash]

I was so poor back then I started using it as milk whitener. In fact I'm still using it. Apart from it's addictive properties, something in it might have had a negative effect, as I do have some weird growths and some very worrying thoughts!

[Stix]

Was just wondering....not for the addictive slant, but you seem to edit every post....there is a "Preview Post" button you know......just trying to help an elderly citizen across the technological road :p

(No offence intended, just my stoopid humour (and caring side) on show ;))

[crash]

Was just wondering....not for the addictive slant, but you seem to edit every post....there is a "Preview Post" button you know......just trying to help an elderly citizen across the technological road :p

(No offence intended, just my stoopid humour (and caring side) on show ;))


Preview post? Why bother an old Luddite. I just edit fearlessly :-)

[stebbo]

16:23 eaf R07 # 3 Kane Mochi
All runs on GOOD are below the line and ahead of the rest. Excellent jockey and trainer. Q100 rater. Rank4 and IV count of 8. Yes $2.80.

[stebbo]

15:37 kyn R06 # 1 Accelerant
Graphs don’t really inspire. Two runs out of 10 below the line, two wins out of 10 above (or just on) the line. Q99. Marginal jockey although A2E is ok s/r is quite poor. Rated $6.70 in the paper and will be value at that although rated a bit shorter. Yes $4.00