Svenvlad
6th September 2008, 09:07 AM
Hi All,
Will post some of my thoughts for the races today at Doomben, even though they will be run on a very heavy track.
Race 1 - Don't mind one down the bottom of the weights here in Iluva Queenslander. It was a pretty good effort behind My Limit last time and the step up in journey does not look like it will bother. Can handle wet tracks too. Double Or Nothin is racing well and there is no reason to suggest she can't win again. Down to Earth can improve too, with the wet track. He is much better than his last 2 runs suggest.
Race 2 - Fulmonti should win. He is a dead-set wet tracker and is racing is pretty good form. Even though he hasn't won a race in a while, he has been racing in much better company than he meets here. He'll be short, but i'd say he'll win. Scattergun handles the wet too and ran some very good races over the carnival. The issue today is that he is first up after a freshen over 2100m on a very heavy track. I'm willing to risk him on that basis. He is a nice horse though, and Smith is a smart trainer of stayers. Yield Curve has run good races his last 2 and if he repeats either of those, he can run into the money. Handles the wet too.
Race 3 - I like Our Magic here. He doesn't win out of turn, but has been racing against some strong opposition (mostly the 3yos of last season). His figures are mostly superior to his oppositions' here and if he repeats them and handles the wet track (which he does), i think he'll go close. Notre Amour was scratched at the barrier last time, but if his manners are better today and if he handles the wet (he has never raced on it, so this is a geniuine unknown) i think he can give it a shake. He is a nice horse on his day and Heathcote is having a good run with his stable. Regal Castanea for third because he is so consistent and can handle the wet track.
Race 4 - I don't mind reincarnation at odds here. He can produce figures that are up there with the better chances in this race and he handles the wet. Down in the weights, and with the outside alley (i think the track will be playing towards the outer alleys, as it tends to do on wet days) i think he can run a race. Carnegie Prince is a talented horse, though his last couple of runs haven't really shown that. If he shows up today, he can give it a shake. Release Me is talented too, and handles the wet easily enough. If he gets the right run, he can run into the finish somewhere.
Race 5 - If it handles the wet, Zero Rock should win. The first up win was fantastic, and if she improves in that in any way, she is too good. Far too short for my liking though. Especially given that she has only won a maiden. Seeyou is very talented aswell, and if there is plenty of speed on up front and this bloke gets to the outside, he could run over the top. Pandemonia for 3rd. The weight is a big issue, but he is talented.
Race 6 - Rockdale will get a nice and easy run in front, i imagine and i think that is enough to see him get home. I'm not totally convinced yet, but i think with the lack of speed and his ability to handle the track, i'll stick. Bitabiff is racing in fantastic form and there is no reason why he can't topple Rockdale if there is some semblance of speed put on in the race. Sam's Express for third. He has talent and can handle the wet, but is just finding it a bit tough to win lately.
Race 7 - My First Affair is a nice horse and i think she can go close here. Has a good winning strike rate and can handle the wet and the distance. She has produced figures this prep which, if reproduced, would be enough to beat the balance of this field. Kanpeki handles the wet nicely, and the last run was very good. If she can repeat that, she'll be in the finish here. Shew Stone gets back and runs on, which may be a benefit here, with the big field and the likely pattern of racing by the end of the day. She might be able to hook to the extreme outside and finish over the top on the outside fence. The only issue, and the reason i have her third, is that she is an unknown on the wet.
Race 8 - Pagan County here. This field has really been decimated by scratchings, but i think she is the best of the rest. It was a good win against much stronger opposition 2 back and if she repeats that, she is too good. Serunai is talented, though the last run was very bad - not sure if there was something wrong. I'd suggest that forgiving that one bad run might be wise, as the run before that was super. Pelltro has been racing pretty well too, and can sneak into a place.
No real best bets today, as the ones i really like are too short. And i'm not willing to bet short odds on heavy tracks.
Good luck if you choose to have a bet.
Sven
Will post some of my thoughts for the races today at Doomben, even though they will be run on a very heavy track.
Race 1 - Don't mind one down the bottom of the weights here in Iluva Queenslander. It was a pretty good effort behind My Limit last time and the step up in journey does not look like it will bother. Can handle wet tracks too. Double Or Nothin is racing well and there is no reason to suggest she can't win again. Down to Earth can improve too, with the wet track. He is much better than his last 2 runs suggest.
Race 2 - Fulmonti should win. He is a dead-set wet tracker and is racing is pretty good form. Even though he hasn't won a race in a while, he has been racing in much better company than he meets here. He'll be short, but i'd say he'll win. Scattergun handles the wet too and ran some very good races over the carnival. The issue today is that he is first up after a freshen over 2100m on a very heavy track. I'm willing to risk him on that basis. He is a nice horse though, and Smith is a smart trainer of stayers. Yield Curve has run good races his last 2 and if he repeats either of those, he can run into the money. Handles the wet too.
Race 3 - I like Our Magic here. He doesn't win out of turn, but has been racing against some strong opposition (mostly the 3yos of last season). His figures are mostly superior to his oppositions' here and if he repeats them and handles the wet track (which he does), i think he'll go close. Notre Amour was scratched at the barrier last time, but if his manners are better today and if he handles the wet (he has never raced on it, so this is a geniuine unknown) i think he can give it a shake. He is a nice horse on his day and Heathcote is having a good run with his stable. Regal Castanea for third because he is so consistent and can handle the wet track.
Race 4 - I don't mind reincarnation at odds here. He can produce figures that are up there with the better chances in this race and he handles the wet. Down in the weights, and with the outside alley (i think the track will be playing towards the outer alleys, as it tends to do on wet days) i think he can run a race. Carnegie Prince is a talented horse, though his last couple of runs haven't really shown that. If he shows up today, he can give it a shake. Release Me is talented too, and handles the wet easily enough. If he gets the right run, he can run into the finish somewhere.
Race 5 - If it handles the wet, Zero Rock should win. The first up win was fantastic, and if she improves in that in any way, she is too good. Far too short for my liking though. Especially given that she has only won a maiden. Seeyou is very talented aswell, and if there is plenty of speed on up front and this bloke gets to the outside, he could run over the top. Pandemonia for 3rd. The weight is a big issue, but he is talented.
Race 6 - Rockdale will get a nice and easy run in front, i imagine and i think that is enough to see him get home. I'm not totally convinced yet, but i think with the lack of speed and his ability to handle the track, i'll stick. Bitabiff is racing in fantastic form and there is no reason why he can't topple Rockdale if there is some semblance of speed put on in the race. Sam's Express for third. He has talent and can handle the wet, but is just finding it a bit tough to win lately.
Race 7 - My First Affair is a nice horse and i think she can go close here. Has a good winning strike rate and can handle the wet and the distance. She has produced figures this prep which, if reproduced, would be enough to beat the balance of this field. Kanpeki handles the wet nicely, and the last run was very good. If she can repeat that, she'll be in the finish here. Shew Stone gets back and runs on, which may be a benefit here, with the big field and the likely pattern of racing by the end of the day. She might be able to hook to the extreme outside and finish over the top on the outside fence. The only issue, and the reason i have her third, is that she is an unknown on the wet.
Race 8 - Pagan County here. This field has really been decimated by scratchings, but i think she is the best of the rest. It was a good win against much stronger opposition 2 back and if she repeats that, she is too good. Serunai is talented, though the last run was very bad - not sure if there was something wrong. I'd suggest that forgiving that one bad run might be wise, as the run before that was super. Pelltro has been racing pretty well too, and can sneak into a place.
No real best bets today, as the ones i really like are too short. And i'm not willing to bet short odds on heavy tracks.
Good luck if you choose to have a bet.
Sven