Top 5 & Second Stringers

[Percentum]

Following are my top 5 selections for Saturday 1 November 2008 and my next 4 for the same:

TOP 5
AWAPUNI
R5 no8 TURFSTAR
R6 no 10 BALLY HEIGHTS
R10 no 1 VALHALLA
FLEMINGTON
R3 no 8 MOATIZE
R9 no 8 HOT DANISH


SECOND STRINGERS
AWAPUNI
R4 no 4 SKI
R8 no 6 HAPPY VICTORY
TE AWAMUTU
R5 no 3 MR COOL
R6 no 6 BLACKHALL

[Percentum]

Top 5 (all up parlay IASbet prices)
Win: Outlay = $31 Return = $91.94
Place: Outlay = $31 Return = $299.85

Second Stringers
Win Outlay = $15 Return = $30.20
Place Outlay = $15 Return = $7.36

[Percentum]

FLEMINGTON
R7 no 5 NOM DU JEU

TRENTHAM
R8 no 10 KUDDAM
R10 no7 SPARTANICUS

ELLERSLIE
R3 no 8 GEEZA
R10 no 10 KILIFI

[Percentum]

Top 5 (All Up IASBET)
Win Bets
Outlay = $31
Return = $0

Place Bets
Outlay = $31
Return = $30.60

Progressive
Win
Outlay = $62
Reurn = $91.94

Place
Outlay = $62
Return = $330.45

[Percentum]

Top 5
FLEMINGTON
R1 no 1 ZIPANESE
R2 no6 RAEBURN
R6 no5 MISS SCARLATTI
R9 no 2 ROCKPECKER
HAWKESBURY
R8 no 5 ALVERTA


SECOND STRINGERS
HAWKESBURY
R9 no 7 TYRONE PRINCE
FLEMINGTON
R4 no 16 BELLE SOCIETY
R5 no 10 BANKSDALE
R8 no 2 GRAND DUELS

[Percentum]

(IASBET prices for all up parlays)
TOP 5
Outlay: $31 win and $31 place
Return = $4.30 win and $32.81 place

Progressive:
WIN OUTLAY $93
RETURN = $96.24
PLACE OUTLAY = $93
RETURN = $363.25

SECOND STRINGERS
OUTLAY = $15 win and place
RETURN = $0

Progressive:
Outlay win and place = $30
Win Return = $30.20
Place = $7.36

[Percentum]

TOP 5

RICCARTON
R7 no 3 SKIRMISH
R8 no 4 IMANI
FLEMINGTON
R2 no 6 QUEEN'S KISS
R5 no 10 LIBERTY EDITION
R7 no 5 SEA BATTLE

SECOND STRINGERS

RICCARTON
R6 no 11 BRIAN
FLEMINGTON
R6 no 8 SUNBURNT LAND
DOOMBEN
R6 no 6 PAYMORE
R7 no 13 PENTACITY

[Percentum]

RESULTS ARE FOR MULTI BET PARLAY ON IASBET

TOP 5
OUTLAY = $31 Win & Place
RETURN = $0 win and $2.80 place
PROGRESSIVE OUTLAY = $124 WIN & PLACE
PROGRESSIVE RETURN = $96.24 win & $366.05 place

SECOND STRINGERS
OUTLAY = $15 WIN & PLACE
RETURN = $0 WIN & $9.41 PLACE
PROGRESSIVE OUTLAY = $45 win & place
PROGRESSIVE RETURN = $30.20 win and $16.77 place

[partypooper]

some impressive results there percemum, but can you explain the amount bet there a bit more? confused!

[Percentum]

some impressive results there percemum, but can you explain the amount bet there a bit more? confused!

Thanks Partypooper. I've got a bit of good luck/will in reserve for the inevitable curse of the forum at the moment.

The amounts outlaid are for combining horses in all possible combinations i.e. 1 horse, 2 horses (doubles), 3 horses (trebles), 4 horses (quadrellas) and 5 horses (not sure what they're called - probably quintellas or something like that.

For my second stringers I'm coupling 4 horses this way so there are 15 combinations in which they can win and also place.

Call the imaginary races Race A, Race B, Race C and Race D. The possible combinations are:

1. a single bet on each horse. A B C D (4 bets in all)
2. all of the possible doubles AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (6 bets in all)
3. all of the possible trebles ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD (4 bets in all)
4. all of the possible quadrellas ABCD (1 bet in all)

Altogether there are 15 combinations (for a $1 stake an outlay of $15).
With the dividends multiplying, if you are lucky enough to snag a few horses, the return can be sizeable.

For 5 horses there are 31 such combinations.

It's probably the horseplayers version of the lottery / windfall bet.

IASBET allow across code and different venue bets on this kind of bet which they list as 'multis'.

Hope this explains it a bit.

[partypooper]

Thanks Percentum, yes I understand now, being an aa-pom I am familiar with combination betting, it was the 31 bets (for 5) that threw me, but now I understand 26 bets in the combo + 5 singles, good stuff, though I didn't realise that AIS were accepting these now.

Worth considering that you can also allot a higher stake for the doubles, and lesser on the Trebles & 4'somes, (i.e. less likely to succeed.) but I would always leave a full unit for the 5 horse accumalator as this can be the lifechanger!

[Percentum]

Think I'll have a go today after a week in hospital getting a knee replacement. For those of you who think it's like changing racing plates, think again. Anyway, enough of this racing metaphor stuff. They are:


NEWCASTLE
R7 no 12 CONVENT HILL
BUNBURY
R7 no 8 UNDERTAKE DANE
R8 no 1 DANGEROUS DANE
HOBART
R7 no 11 ESPRIT OF EVE
R9 no 7 HEARTBREAK KID

[partypooper]

Percentum, once again 1 unit EW level stakes produces an acceptable profit. Just as a matter of interest have you ever run the excercise of calculating the total amount staked over a period of time divided by the number of selections to arrive at an average stake per selection, and then see what the POT would have been had you placed this amount on each selection???? you see what I'm getting at?
Just food for thought, it took me 30+ years to get there!

PS. I could do with a Knee, back, elbow, foot and hip replacement, and I wouldn't mind swapping this gut for a flat one, and maybe adding a few inches somewhere else! hee hee!

[Percentum]

Percentum, once again 1 unit EW level stakes produces an acceptable profit. Just as a matter of interest have you ever run the excercise of calculating the total amount staked over a period of time divided by the number of selections to arrive at an average stake per selection, and then see what the POT would have been had you placed this amount on each selection???? you see what I'm getting at?
Just food for thought, it took me 30+ years to get there!

PS. I could do with a Knee, back, elbow, foot and hip replacement, and I wouldn't mind swapping this gut for a flat one, and maybe adding a few inches somewhere else! hee hee!

Partypooper, I actually haven't done any research tweaking these about and I have reached a stage in life where laziness is appealing. One thing I know I have to do is eliminate horses with just one start to their names as selections. Because they show up in my selection process I've been putting them in but, clearly, this is flawed. Before I started posting these I had a good 40/1 winner called Skirmish in one such bet (4 legs only, 2 won and all placed so return was really good). It had only had 3 starts and I think I might make this my minimum starts cut off point from now on. I think I'll curb my enthusiasm and stick to Saturdays and, perhaps, some cup meetings midweek like the approaching Ballarat Cup. The NZers who show up in my selections have excellent strength and depth in their form and will probably be the mainstays of the successes I have (if any) so I like there to be an accompanying NZ meeting.

As for the spare parts. The getting I don't mind. The process is a bit of a worry though. I thought it'd be a simple pinfiring, out in the paddock to freshen up and then Bob's your uncle. Rehab exercises are painful and I keep finding diversions to avoid them.

Sunday's Results

OUTLAY: $31 W & P
RETURN $7.95 W and $8.64 P

[partypooper]

Percentum, I'm really sorry that you see it as *lazyness* I found the revelation as the opposite, i.e I tried every which way to show a better profit than level stakes, but everytime I applied the formula that I described in my last post (HONESTLY) level stakes won out every time!!

Most simply won't admit it, if I'm wrong on this occasion then I humbly accept defeat!

[Percentum]

Party, Alan Rowland, who formerly owned Punters' Choice before Ian Barns believed that there was no difference between flat level stakes and various staking plans. In the end it all balanced out. The staking plan may have recouped all monies lost in a series with a $2 winner backed at high stakes but, equally, a pittance could have been had on a 100/1 winner earlier in a sequence. (Does this make sense? I'm noy sure. I know what I mean though.)

[Percentum]

Fingers crossed for these today:

TOP 5
Pukeko
R6 no 1 Culminate
R10 no 13 Valhalla

Adelaide
R7 no 8 Whoishe

Perth
R6 no 2 Fun Spice
R7 no 16 Grand Nirvana

Second Stringers

Brisbane
R6 no 1 Albert The Fat
R8 no 7 Covet Gold

Pukekoe
R7 no 9 Puttanesca
R8 no 3 Ginga Dude


Best Roughie
Pukekoe R6 no 15 Striker

[Percentum]

Might try these today:

Sandown
R5 no 9 Gazza Guru
Bunbury
R8 no 5 Bushels
R9 no4 Delta Bay
Te Aroha
R4 no5 Jessardo
R10 no4 Je Suis

[Percentum]

Lots of depth at Otaki today. Here's hoping for these:
R5 no 15 Regal Secret
R6 no 12 Flavio
R8 no 2 Blackall
R9 no 5 Spartanicus
R10 no 4 Grasshopper

[Percentum]

Top 5

Ellerslie
R10 no 11 Mr Cool

Wanganui
R8 no 12 Kovak

Eagle Farm
R5 no 13 stature
R7 no 11 Desdemona
R8 no 12 Framous

Second Stringers
Wanganui
R1 no 2 Inevitable
R7 no 13 Fuji Walk
Eagle Farm
R3 no 16 My Counsel
R6 no 12 Pentacity

Best Roughie
Eagle Farm R7 Doug's Mate

[Percentum]

Struth! Hope I can dig myself out of a hole with these at a very tough Avondale meeting.

Top 5
R4 no5 Desert Lad
R5 no 18 Jac Pot
R7 no 7 Carchelo
R8 no 6 Post Road
R9 no 4 Sterling Prince

[Percentum]

For some reason I feel a little confident today. Not sure why.

Top 5
Ascot
R7 no 16 Grand Nirvana
R8 no 9 Scenicism
Doomben
R1 no 5 Paymore
R7 no 8 Bar Linnie
R8 no 18 Covet Gold


Second Stringers
Avondale
R3 no 2 Glam Slam
R7 no 2 Montetra
Trentham
R6 no 5 Halls
R10 no 4 Conchord

[Percentum]

Nice little result last Saturday with 3 out of 4 of the second stringers winning and all 4 placed. Usual tough races in NZ today but all horses listed have good depth in their form and a multiple collect will be very worthwhile.

AWAPUNI
R4 no 13 STARK JUSTICE (gets back and gets home but poor strike rate)
TE RAPA
R8 no 6 EQUALS THAT
R9 no 3 CULMINATE (ultra consistent)
R10 no 11 REPOSADO (promising type)
EAGLE FARM
R5 no 13 PRIMEVAL DEMAND (consistent up and comer)

[Percentum]

I like these a bit today; all at Riccarton.

R1 no 3 Grand Rapids
R8 no7 Kay's Dreams
R9 no 6 Wellesley
R10 no 3 Menelaus
R11 no 6 Monkey Business

[Percentum]

Like these at odds today. All are at the very spacious Awapuni track.

R1 no 8 Regal Secret (been unlucky lately but a tough race)
R4 no 9 Shi Kin Fly (racing well at the moment)
R5 no 11 Macadamia (down in class on recent runs)
R7 no 11 Fereira (honest stayer)
R10 no 17 Possum (chance at odds with Conchord very short)

[Percentum]

A decent start last week with the first two winning at good EW odds. Possum was a late scratching.
Hope you all had a beaut Christmas. These may help with the credit card.
Top 5
Ellerslie
R5 no 1 Morelle (consistent up and comer)
R6 no 8 Puttanesca (needs a strong pace as she getrs back and finishes on)
R9 no 3 Ginga Dude (good horse but tough race)
Adelaide
R6 no 11 Close The Door (promising)
Brisbane
R3 no 5 Covet The Gold

Second Stringers
Awapuni
R7 no 8 The Black Oak (big finish; has been freshened)
Brisbane
R6 no 9 Paymore (very honest but struggling to win)
R7 no 8 Bazzooka (I think he's a bit underrated)
Melbourne
R6 no 7 Time Matters (honest horse but second up)

[Percentum]

In spite of recent performances I feel a little confident today. There's not a lot of depth in the fields. Anyway, here goes.

TOP 5
Te Aroha
R4 no 11 Jacpot (chance in even race)
R10 no 5 Bally Magic
(Pukekura
R7 no 10 Stark Justice rode him up last start - big finish when quietly ridden)

Doomben
R5 no 8 Express Air (promising but has to beat Youthful Jack)
R7 no 2 Bar Linnie (top class horse)

[Percentum]

These may pay to follow today (then again...)

Top 5
ELLERSLIE
R5 no 15 Don Domingo
R6 no 11 Starmon
R7 no 4 Culminate
R9 no 18 May The Horse Be Magic
R10 no 8 Equals That

Second Stringers
WAIKOUAITI
R9 no 2 Dear John
HASTINGS
R5 no 4 Under & Over
R7 no 11 Conchord
GOLD COAST
R7 no 2 Forestreno

[Percentum]

Nice, quiet little meetings in NZ today. As on most Saturday mornings, I'm feeling confident today.

TOP 5
AWAPUNI
R1 no 4 Albus (consistent horse in average field)
R2 no 4 Daffodil (resuming from short break - classy)
R3 no 4 Regal Secret (highly promising)
R5 no 10 Phantom Storm (considered a Derby horse by connections)
R8 no 15 Scandalous (good chance at odds)

SECOND STRINGERS
ELLERSLIE
R6 no 12 Sun Ruler (fairly consistent in short career)
R8 no 7 Yamanna (always runs a good race)
R9 no 8 Late Addition ( good value chance)
R10 no 10 Vonusti (been consistent though a little disappointing last time)

[Percentum]

Good value at Trentham today. I'll be on these (all up).

R2 no 7 Occidentalis
R3 no 9 Henree
R4 no 3 Numero Lago
R5 no5 Cellmate
R10 no 12 Colonel Danske

Maximum Star is a good outsider in the big sprint (race 9).

[Percentum]

TOP 5

RICCARTON
R6 no 6 Fellini
R9 no 9 Madam Stravinsky
TRENTHAM
R1 no 6 Cordova Bay
R3 no 9 De Los Angeles
R6 no 2 Culminate

SECOND STRINGERS

RICCARTON
R8 no 9 Outrage
R10 no 17 Pentiful
TRENTHAM
R5 no 5 Skirmish
R8 no 13 Scandalous

[Percentum]

Trentham second stringers have wrong numbers. Should read at Trentham: R5 no 4 Skirmish and R7 no 13 Scandalous.

[Percentum]

Top 5 (parlay)

Launceston
R1 no 1 Royal Work
R9 no 12 Mr Reminiscing
R10 no 7 Perero
Tamworth
R5 no 9 Molly Rocks
R8 no 5 Sutton Friend


Second Stringers (parlay)
Ballina
R5 no 4 Strategic Partner
Ballarat
R7 no 8 Mosseltov
Yarra Glen
R9 no 5 Supreme De Lago
R10 no 7 Rapid Reserve

[Percentum]

More of the same rubbish from a few weeks ago. I've added another criterion and, as the curse of the forum dictates, have had a dream run. Am I just another aaaaer on an ego trip? Probably, but let's see.

This is an all up parlay. Results listed are for $0.50 win and $1 place (total cost $56.50).

AWAPUNI
R7 Valhalla
R8 Spartanicus
R9 In To Win
BALLARAT
R7 Romano's Xaar
R8 Lethal Guy

[Percentum]

Unlucky yesterday with Lethal Gal running fourth which would have given a nice result with a place quadrella. Today's are at the NZ track whose spelling escapes me at the moment (the one with lots of o's and u's in it).

R3 no 8 Parole
R4 no 1 Don't ask
R6 no 9 Klassicpins
R7 no 11 Telem
R8 no 14 Vital Princess

[jayjones1]

Unlucky yesterday with Lethal Gal running fourth which would have given a nice result with a place quadrella. Today's are at the NZ track whose spelling escapes me at the moment (the one with lots of o's and u's in it).

R3 no 8 Parole
R4 no 1 Don't ask
R6 no 9 Klassicpins
R7 no 11 Telem
R8 no 14 Vital Princessyeh was hoping lethal gun would pull throu but was not the case
http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gif

[Percentum]

Trentham
R8 no 10 Just Smokin'
Melbourne
R8 no3 Falaise
Adelaide
R5 no 5 Venetian Star
R6 no 11 Distinctive Lass
R8 no 15 Stakhanovite

[Percentum]

Nice place collect on IAS yesterday. Shame we couldn't link Falaise up with a winner. Just Smokin' was late scratching.

Interesting Ellerslie meeting today. A shame the track will be a bog.

Ellerslie
R2 no 8 Marahau
R5 no 5 Wearemarshall
R7 no 2 Special Mission
R9 no 9 Easy Ryder
R10 no 11 Dane Ruler

[Percentum]

Townsville
R4 no 8 Vittorial
R5 no 1 King Cash
R6 no 1 Dane Merchant
R7 no 4 Expecting
Terang
R8 no 2 Johan's Love

[Percentum]

Top 5

Ellerslie
R1 no 11 Skai Glow
R5 no 13 Copybook
R6 no 15 Conchord
R7 no 7 Norse Affair
R8 no 5 Align To Infinity

Second Stringers
R2 no 7 Magic Places
R3 no 5 Neon
R4 no 4 Denver
R10 no 15 Cannavaro

(suggest $0.5 x $1 parlay)

[MyHatMyCoat]

I see you're tipping at Ellerslie, Percentum.
Like anything in the Cup?
I'm having (for an interest) ew bets Young Centaur, Prize Lady & Willy Smith.

[Percentum]

G'day Matamah
My top 4 in order in the cup are 9 Tinseltown 11, Vickezzchardonnay, 2 Young Centaur and 3 Willy Smith. Young Centaur has become very dour as an older horse and will run it right out. Not sure what the pace will be like as the field is largely the usual suspects from Saturday racing i.e. not a lot of up and comers. Always a great race though.

[MyHatMyCoat]

Thanks Percentum, I've included your top two in my novelties

[Percentum]

Top 5
ELLERSLIE
R2 no 8 Geeza
R5 no 8 Flirting
R6 no 11 Corsage

OAMARU
R7 no 2 Metropolitan
R8 no 9 Saint Zede

Second Stringers
FLEMINGTON
R6 no 12 Fighting Fund
ADELAIDE
R4 no9 Graskey
R5 no 9 Big Slick
EAGLE FARM
R7 no 4 Stage Shaker

[Percentum]

Nice returns today. IASBET top 5 parlay returned $339 for $1 ($31 total) place parlay. Fighting Fund ran well down the Flemington straight. Unfortunately his first past the post can't be counted.

[Percentum]

TOP 5

HOBART
R5 no 1 Upanova
HAWERA
R7 no 12 Wishing
STONY CREEK
R7 no 6 Red Buttons
ECHUCA
R8 no 1 El Mandon
SUNSHINE COAST
R6 no 1 Rags To Riches

[Percentum]

TOP 5
ADELAIDE
R6 no 3 Zizz
R7 no 10 Ocean Challenger
R9 no 8 Kerdem
MELBOURNE
R5 no 2 Sept Rouge
Grafton
R4 no 2 Ceequal Star

SECOND STRING
ADELAIDE
R1 no 8 Vinegar Hill
R8 no 9 Serious Speed
GRAFTON
R5 no 11 Coles Bay
R6 no 14 Acquits

[Percentum]

TOP 5

WARRNAMBOOL
R1 no5 Last Shogun
R2 no 5 Rondahl
R5 no 2 Hidden Expenses
BUNBURY
R7 no4 Core Asset
R8 no2 I'm Elite

[Percentum]

TOP 5
MATAMATA
R3 no 10 Bella Ruger
R5 no 14 Pure Reason
R9 no 2 Skai Glow
R12 no 3 The Flaneur
MURRAY BRIDGE
R7 no 8 Hentschke

It's coming around to the jumps season. My favourite time of year. Couldn't believe Sallum's price yesterday with only two chances in the race (on form).

[Percentum]

TOP 5

Wanganui
R9 no 1 Our Sista
Bunbury
R6 no 7 Aussie Anthem
R7 no 3 Frog Legs
R9 no 10 Gold Town
R10 no 4 West Virginia

[Percentum]

Top 5

TRENTHAM
R5 no 9 Stand Tall
R6 no 8 Fiorano
R10 no 3 Kilifi
TE RAPA
R7 no 1 Striker
R10 no 3 Kilifi

Second Stringers

ADELAIDE
R1 no 3 Rude 'n Abrupt
R7 no 8 Stakhanovite
BRISBANE
R7 no 7 Felix Trinidad
ASCOT
R7 no 14 Vain Strike


Bolters D.I.Y. Quaddy
TERAPA
R1 no 7 Danpaoshaq
SYDNEY
R8 no 12 Langfibian
MELBOURNE
R7 no 3 Marching
R9 no 9 The Wolverine
no 14 Villain

[Percentum]

Today's are all at Hastings:

TOP 5
R2 no 1 Ben Hur
R4 no 7 Glam Slam
R6 no 12 Siance
R7 no 5 Yanna Marie
R9 no 4 Cordova Bay

SECOND STRINGERS
R1 no 1 A Thin Red Line
R3 no 1 Anticipation
R5 no 5 Tora Grey
R8 no 12 Black Lambo

[Percentum]

TOP 5
TAURANGA
R6 no 2 Roman Justice
R8 no 14 Vonusti
R10 no 11 Use The Force
RICCARTON
R6 no 7 Secret Halo
R7 no 14 Tampiko

SECOND STRINGERS
RICCARTON
R9 no 6 Stupendous
R10 no 14 Vacant Lot
R11 no 5 Saint Zede
ADELAIDE
R7 no 6 Autumn Jeuney

BOLTERS
CAULFIELD
R3 no 3 Our Valpolicella
R4 no 1 True Tales
R5 no 11 Tonto's Fire
R6 no 3 Bird Of Fire

[Percentum]

Frustrating yesterday - Vonusti and Roman Justice both around 20s finished 4th.

TOP 5
KEMBLA
R5 no 4 Inspired Choice
R7 no 2 Glowlamp
R8 no 8 Comepsa
TATURA
R6 no 3 Cape DÁmore
CRANBOURNE
R8 no 10 Go My Girl

[Percentum]

TOP 5

HAMILTON
R1 no 3 Stop The Traffic
R2 no 5 Interlocutor
R3 no 1 Wheel The Lead
R5 no 4 Ned's Court
R7 no 1 Ship In The Night

[Percentum]

TOP 5
These are all at Mornington today:
R1 no 1 Jamraan
R2 no 7 Tip The Dip
R3 no 1 Twirler
R5 no 2 Kindly
R6 no 2 Vintage King

[Percentum]

TOP 5
TE AROHA
R4 no 5 Salvatore
R5 no 3 Sanjeev
R8 no 9 Fairytale Of New York
R10 no 3 Copybook
RICCARTON
R6 no 5 Zabene

SECOND STRINGERS
SYDNEY
R3 no 15 Off The Peg
BRISBANE
R8 no 13 Tears & Cheers
CAULFIELD
R6 no 3 Jungle Ruler
R7 no 10 Inkster

[Percentum]

TOP 5

WAIKOUAITI
R5 no 12 Strisan
R7 no 5 Keepitinthefamily
R8 no 10 Wharfendale
LAUNCESTON
R1 no 4 Maywyn's Quest
R2 no 12 All Chevalin

[Percentum]

TOP 5

Terang
R6 no 6 Lotto Meo
R7 no 4 Hidden Expenses

Rockhampton
R1 no 11 Prairie King
R8 no 6 Ima Note

Grafton
R8 no 6 Frisco Miss

[Percentum]

Prairie King sat 3 wide at the back of the field all the way. Otherwise could've snared a nice place quaddy.

GEELONG
R6 no 2 Will's Power
R8 no 10 Astronomo
BALAKLAVA
R6 no 8 Goldstinger
R7 no 3 Don Coco
R8 no 8 Dream Team

[Percentum]

TOP 5
OAKBANK
R2no 1 Yamanaura
R4 no 4 Tolderol Tea Party
R7 no 12 Zagata
TRENTHAM
R9 no 2 Regal Secret
CAULFIELD
R7 no 9 Gran Sasso

SECOND STRINGERS
CAULFIELD
R6 no 9 Orbit Express
RANDWICK
R5 no 8 Butch James
R7 no 9 Harris Tweed
ASCOT
R7 no 12 Brava Fortune

VALUE
ELLERSLIE
R2 no 1 Geeza
R10 no 1 Cetelle
RANDWICK
R2 no 13 Inspired Choice
R4 no 14 Jimmy's Fortunes

[Percentum]

TOP 5 PARLAY (31 bets)

GOSFORD
R8 no 13 Maillot Vert
MORNINGTON
R7 no6 Seattle Silence
R8 no 7 Kiwi Jim
SUNSHINE COAST
R7 no 9 Worthy
STAWELL
R4 no 6 Ramano's Xaar

[Percentum]

TOP 5
OAKBANK
R3 no 8 Yamanaura
R4 no 17 Flying Trapeze
R6 no 6 Zagata
EAGLE FARM
R7 no 2 Covet Gold
R9 no 8 Abirra

SECOND STRINGERS

ELLERSLIE
R4 no 3 Blackhall
R5 no 6 Salvatore
R8 no 8 Vonusti
RIVERTON
R8 no 1 Ketamada

[Percentum]

TOP 5

TE AROHA
R2 no 3 General Mac
R4 no 6 Lawman
R5 no 1 Willie Winit
R7 no 2 The Flaneur
R9 no 3 Grand Ballare

[Percentum]

TOP 5
SYDNEY
R4 no 4 Faulconbridge
R8 no 1 Gallica
BRISBANE
R4 no 11 Walk In The Park
TAURANGA
R7 no 12 Our Cannavaro
HAMILTON
R1 no 5 My Big Fat Greek Horse


SECOND STRINGERS
SYDNEY
R7 no 15 Black Piranha
BRISBANE
R6 no 11 Scenic Ruler
ADELAIDE
R5 no 10 Falken
R7 no 1 Serious Speed

VALUE QUADDY
MELBOURNE
R6 no 9 The Sportsman
R8 no 2 Inkster
BRISBANE
R5 no 11 Doug's Mate
HASTINGS
R8 no 18 Golan

[jake]

hi percentum..great to see mybigfatgreekhorse back in the winners circle..was more than handy in nz a couple of years back..front running stayer with a 'catch me if you can' attitude..love em!

[Percentum]

Top 5

Adelaide
R1 no 1 Rude & Abrupt
Te Rapa
R4 no 6 The Gaffer
R6 no 11 Kovak
Awapuni
R5 no 6 Under & Over
R6 no 17 MacRob

SECOND STRINGERS

Sydney
R5 no 5 Douro Valley
MELBOURNE
R5 no 1 Falaise
R7 no 3 Vigor
R8 no 1 Cat's Whisker

[Percentum]

PARLAY

YARRA VALLEY
R1 no 11 Tainui Tena
R2 no 1 Awakening Dream
R3 no 1 Frenzilian
TAMWORTH
R7 no 4 All Again

[Percentum]

TOP 5
ADELAIDE
R6 no 8 Orbit Express
R7 no 9 Falken
RICCARTON
R9 no 16 The Meista
TE AROHA
R7 no 9 Pactus
R9 no 16 Juice

[Percentum]

GOLD COAST
R4 no 3 Jungle Rocket
R4 no 11 Leap Frog
R6 no 8 Stand Tall
RICCARTON
R10 no 18 Propel

[Percentum]

TOP 5 Parlay

ADELAIDE
R1 no 5 Sallum
R7 no 8 Big Slick
R8 no 3 Sellers
DOOMBEN
R7 no 10 Absolute Glam
TAURANGA
R8 no 18 Lily LÁmour

[Percentum]

TOP 5

TE RAPA
R4 no 1 Yourtheman
R6 no 1 Mikemendaad
DOOMBEN
R4 no 10 Insistence
R6 no 12 I Robot
R7 no 19 Stand Tall


SECOND STRINGERS

AWAPUNI
R8 no 15 Le Brun
R10 no 10 Turfstar
DOOMBEN
R5 no 2 Juice
R8 no 7 Rockpecker

[Percentum]

Top 5 Parlay
ELLERSLIE
R9 no 8 Desert Lad Top runs in big fields.
TRENTHAM
R5 no 3 Skirmish Very good filly who is fresh for this. Worth following.
R7 no 7 Macsmallpee Chance in ordinary race.
R9 no 6 Kaap Kruis Ditto
R10 no 2 Intersect Consistent type. Big field but not much depth.

[Percentum]

Four horse parlay at Ruakaka:

R5 no 3 Knife Edge
R7 no 4 Puttanesca
R8 no3 Jessardo
R10 no 7 Kilifi

[Percentum]

PARLAY TODAY

AWAPUNI
R9 no5 Emily Jane
R10 no 3 Princess
WYONG
R8 no 10 Pretty Beach
DOOMBEN
R7 no 12 Shady Prospect

Nice result yesterday. Puttanesca just missed giving us a nice treble but $8 and $11 winners gave us a nice double and place quaddie returned $227 for $15 outlay.

[Percentum]

Parlay Quaddy

BRISBANE
R6 no 8 Can't Keeper Down
R7 no 18 Pride Of Power
R8 no 17 Insistence
ADELAIDE
R1 no 6 Peninsula

[Percentum]

WANGANUI
R4 no 9 Under & Over
R9 no 5 Kahlo
R10 no 12 Finale
ELLERSLIE
R10 no 1 Kawatiri

[Percentum]

Four Horse Parlay

CASTERTON
R1 no2 Satu San
R5 no 4 What An Honour
R7 no3 Fraarclase
R8 no 10 Sally's Comet

A little harmless fun if you take these $0.50 win and $1 place. This will cost you $7.50 win and $15 place for a total outlay of $22.50.

The Casterton Cup today and it's 37th anniversary of the Regal Vista / Royal School ring in. Worst thing is I remember it as if it were only yesterday. Apparently Rick Renzella planned it all beautifully but Regal Vista was just too good a horse (he'd won the 1970 Liston Stakes) and won so easily that questions had to be asked and soon were. I love these salt of the earth race meetings and identify with the grafters out to try and squeeze a dollar. Will Sonny Bill Williams or Michael Clarke be there for a photo shoot with birds in tow? My guess is that hype and yuppies will be sparse on the ground and hurrah to that!

[Percentum]

What better way to begin the winter than with a 4 horse quaddy on the jumps races at Ellerslie.
ELLERSLIE
R2 no5 Noess (if you can afford it put no7 Valuation in as well)
R4 no 6 Rimrock
R5 no 1 Spirit Of Alaton
R6 no2 Willie Winit

[Percentum]

Quiet day today. One does need an interest, however, so these could engender some excitement.

MELBOURNE
R1 no 3 Jamraan
R2 no 5 Yamanaura
ROTORUA
R5 no 1 Safe Access
R6 no 4 Sleepy Joe.

[Percentum]

PARLAY QUADDY
Today they're all at Riccarton in NZ. Very ordinary horses going around there today. It's a matter of those with fewest convictions.

R2 no3 Night Life
R3 no1 Counter Punch
R4 no3 Nana
R5 no 1 Striding

[Percentum]

AVONDALE
R2 no 4 Bjorn To Keep
R3 no 5 Arose
R4 no6 Spiriting
R8 no 3 Stole

Not much doing today. These look like having a show.

[Percentum]

TOP 5
BRISBANE
R5 no 16 Rightfully Yours
R6 no 19 Prix Du Sang
R7 no 11 Tinsel Town
R8 no 5 Geeza
ADELAIDE
R6 no 9 Moggaden


SECOND STRINGERS
TRENTHAM
R8 no 1 Herman Munster
R9 no 2 Adjective
TE RAPA
R5 no 13 Shirl's Girl
R6 no 11 Montjee

Value everywhere today if we get a collect.

[Percentum]

TOP 5

PAKENHAM
R1 no 2 Brookton Mist
R2 no 6 Red Bunting
OAMARU
R5 no 1 Tommasi
R6 no 10 Sea Forever
R9 no 8 Kokiid

[Percentum]

TOP 5
MURRAY BRIDGE
R1 no 1 My Big Fat Greek Horse
R3 no 7 Capri Lad
DOOMBEN
R6 no 17 Maurie's Pick
R7 no 17 Willy Clang
R8 no 22 Primeval Demand

Prix Du Sang would've made a bit of difference had she run 3rd instead of 4th on Saturday.

[Percentum]

JUMPS QUADDY

TE AROHA
R2 no 9 Cape Le Paul
R3 no 11 Tookaboy
R7 no 6 Brighton Pier
R8 no 7 Tui Kaha

[Percentum]

TOP 5
ADELAIDE
R1

[Percentum]

TOP 5
ADELAIDE
R1 no7 Peninsula
MELBOURNE
R3 no 1 Mazzacano
R4 no 4 Yamanaura
AWAPUNI
R4 no 6 In Ya Dreams
R6 no 7 Birchwood Run

SECOND STRINGERS
IPSWICH
R1 no 7 Plenty of Practice
R4 no 13 Syndrome
R6 no 18 Steel Lips
R7 no 15 Tabulate

[Percentum]

Great spectacle today with five jumping races. Good to see that some people who know what they're talking about have taken the lead here. Well meaning amateurs with more say than their knowledge warranted caused many of the problems they naively thought they were fixing in the preceding season.

WARRNAMBOOL
R1 no 7 Red Bunting
R2 no 8 Bowemma
R3 no 4 Black And Bent
TIMARU (PHAR LAP RACEWAY)
R5 no 3 Sunkai
R6 no 4 Finntorri

[Percentum]

Have to put these up early. I feel confident. Don't know if this will help the horses though. Watch them closely, you will see them trying their hearts out. They are noble and stoic animals. I like the idea of removing the last jump on the second round. The horses are very tired then. I'd like to see the last 600 metres or so of these races without an obstacle. The last steeple at Oamaru is a horrific jump, even for a horse that isn't tired. Would like to see it removed on the last lap. Don't know if there's any research on which jump claims most horses (i.e. last, 2nd last etc).

WANGANUI
R1 no 4 Blame Me
R2 no 3 Slave Fire
R3 no 5 Sir Heelan
R4 no 5 Brighton Pier
R5 no 1 Lon York

[Percentum]

A very difficult and even day today but there should be lots of value available. I'm going to parlay these and hope for the best.

TAURANGA
R4 no 3 Desert Lad
R9 no 9 Lutry
R10 no 12 He Kin Roc
MELBOURNE
R1 no 5 Spirit Of Alaton
R2 no 3 Destiny Calls

[Percentum]

TOP 5
CASTERTON
R3 no 3 Flying Corkscrew
R4 no 1 Al Garhood
R6 nno 1 Laurie's Magic
R7 no 6 Magical Sunday
R8 no 4 Blevic's Belle

SECOND STRINGERS
BENDIGO
R5 no 8 Golden Honey
R6 no 7 Old Mate's Act
R7 no 3 For Bond Only
R8 no 1 Fusaichi Knight

[Percentum]

Terrible results yesterday. Magical Sunday was, ironically, the only placegetter. Hope I can turn things around today. Small is beautiful when taking these bets. I usually just put on 50c win and $1 place for the parlay which costs $46.50. If individual selections are a good price I'll usually have a bit extra on them win only. Jumps showing nice returns but disastrous yesterday. Still, if you're going to have a disaster a small one is the best kind.

TOP 5
SALE
R4 no 2 Chang
R6 no 8 Coronation Diva
R7 no 3 Coppervue
R8 no 6 Marrotta
R9 no 9 Rolngarros

[Percentum]

Nice place result yesterday. Let's hope for a repeat or better today.

TOP 5
SCONE
R6 no 1 Kwila's Law
R8 no 6 Brisk Bob
R9 no 10 Konin
KYNETON
R5 no 2 Doctor Gachet
R7 no 11 Te Awamutu

[Percentum]

Typical solid winter programmes in NZ today.
TOP 5

HASTINGS (NZ)
R3 no 3 Slave Fire
R4 no 1 Governor Bois
R5 no 3 Birchwood Run
R7 no 10 Tookaboy
R8 no 1 Mikemeendaad

SECOND STRINGERS

HASTINGS
R2 no 12 Blame Me
R9 no 4 High Octane
R11 no 11 Sir Dexaler
AVONDALE
R5 no 5 Bindi

[Percentum]

TOP 5

WARRNAMBOOL
R1 no 10 Gorge
R4 no 5 What An Honour
R6 no 3 Ned's Court
R7 no 5 Star Pirate
R8 no 2 Grey Master

[Percentum]

Nice return for place quadrella yesterday and win double also showed a small profit.

TOP 5
BENALLA
R5 no 3 Bertonic
QUEANBEYAN
R7 no 2 Port Gallery
GUNNEDAH
R8 no 5 Little Holly
R9 no 9 Dance Little Lady
R10 no 5 Melroy

[Percentum]

TOP 5 PARLAY
Melbourne
R1 no 1 Spirit Of Alaton
R2 no 1 Yamanaura
Murray Bridge
R1 no 7 Peninsula
Matamata
R6 no 7 Pactus
R7 no 7 Montjee

[Percentum]

Good result yesterday. Place quaddy paid $203 for $31 outlay. Only unplaced runner, Peninsula, led over last fence and finished 4th. Had he hung on for 3rd it would have been a major payday. Two good winners ($9 and $7) with Pactus and Yamanaura running second. Again, just missed a good pay out but made an acceptable one.
Looking forward to Friday's Te Aroha jumps.

Today's parlay:
Hawera
R4 no 3 Herman Munster
Wyong
R5 no 3 Crystal Club
R7 no 1 Justifier
R8 no 1 Oakfield James

[Percentum]

TOP 5
TE AWAMUTU
R4 no 4 Walsburgs Leader
R7 no 11 Mr Cool
EAGLE FARM
R8 no 3 Phaze Action
ROSEHILL
R6 no 3 Strat's Flyer
R8 no 1 Anchlais

SECOND STRINGERS
ADELAIDE
R7 no 3 Cybercin
KEMBLA
R6 no 3 Maxim
FLEMINGTON
R4 no 7 Slither
ROSEHILL
R7 no 3 Sherzando
R4 no 7 Slither

[Percentum]

Can't let a day with jumps races on it pass. Here goes for a little parlay.

TOP 5
CASTERTON
R1 no 7 Zuna
R2 no 1 Satu San
ASHBURTON
R2 no 2 Mr Incredible
R3 no 5 Fire Wing
R4 no 11 Bandit

[Percentum]

Satu San is a late scratching. Replace with Sirrocean Storm.

[Percentum]

TOP 5
BAIRNSDALE
R1 no 5 Oloprey
R2 no 2 First Take
R6 no 8 Honour The Force
R7 no 13 Belong To Peri
R8 no 6 Just Don't ask

SECOND STRING
BAIRNSDALE
R9 no 5 My Chequemate
R10 no 3 Sylconi
CESSNOCK
R6 no 5 Italian Romance
R8 no 6 Carnegie Prince

[Percentum]

These for a little parlay interest today.

RUAKAKA
R3 no 8 Sir Cayden
R4 no 10 Sivivatu
R8 no 13 Carisbrooke
IPSWICH
R7 no 7 Bennike

[crash]

OH NO, not Ipswich!

I'll have little place parley on your 3 RUAKAKA picks for the place though.

[Percentum]

TOP 5

TRENTHAM
R1 no 4 Gladstone
R3 no 1 Governor Bois
R4 no 2 Counter Punch
R7 no 1 Mikeemendaad
ADELAIDE
R1 no 4 July

SECOND STRINGERS
MELBOURNE
R1 no 9 Spirit Of Alaton
R2 no 4 Black & Bent
TOOWOOMBA
R4 no 5 Voice Commander
R5 no 9 Palace Lover

[Percentum]

Yeah Crash, I just have a small amount on them and dream about them all getting up. Hasn't happened yet but I'm working on it. Still wearing the cloth cap, braces and cardigan at this stage. As a gilded youth I remember in the early editions of Guiness Book Of Records seeing pictures of old codgers (like myself now) smiling grimly after having won millions of pounds for a penny. I'd like to be able to take on an 8 leg parlay for 1cent but the smallest amount you can put on is 50c (I've tried) and this turns into a big outlay thanks to the laws of mathematics.

[Percentum]

Using the local library's computer today. I wonder if it makes any difference. Anyway, this one works (probably because it's not Vista). OK, enough of this hateful invective. Time to get down to the business at hand.

TOP 5
PAEROA
R1 no 1 Karlos
R2 no 1 Arose
R4 no 2 Llanaprize
R5 no 6 Tui Kaha
MELBOURNE
R8 no 3 Philda

[Percentum]

TOP 5
SYDNEY
R5 no 6 Port Gallery
MELBOURNE
R1 no 2 Yamanaura
R4 no 8 Spirit Of Alaton
DOOMBEN
R6 no 2 Zero Rock
ADELAIDE
R6 no 10 Belle Addiction

SECOND STRINGERS

DOOMBEN
R7 no 9 Steel Lips
TERAPA
R3 no 14 Creston
R5 no 16 Slavadaad
R8 no 1 Between Friends

[Percentum]

TOP 5
RICCARTON
R5 no5 Counter Punch
R7 no 10 Tom's Oscar
R9 no 9 Lunus
R10 no 14 Lonely George
BELMONT
R4 no 6 Black Print

SECOND STRINGERS
DOOMBEN
R1 no 9 Worth Doing
R3 no 1 Deacon
R5 no 8 Kovak
MORPHETTVILLE
R7 no 9 Million Bucks

[Percentum]

TOP 5
WARRNAMBOOL
R1 no 4 Gorge
R2 no 9 Al Wafi
R3 no 2 Mount Townsend
SUNSHINE COAST
R7 no 3 Pentacity
LAUNCESTON
R5 no 5 Umeaka

[Percentum]

Will go just about anywhere for a punt as witnessed by today's parlay.

DARWIN
R8 Edge Off
R9 Utility
FORBES
R6 Ramelius Gold
R7 no 9 Sir Lara

[Percentum]

TOP 5
RICCARTON
R4 no 6 Johnny Rotten
R8 no 2 Birchwood Run
R9 no 13 Monkey Business
R10 no 8 Lonely George
MELBOURNE
R6 no 12 Jungle Heat

[Percentum]

TOP 5
TE AROHA
R1 no 3 Skandel
R2 no 5 Karlos
R4 no 1 Llana Prize
R5 no 2 Waitete Boy
SALE
R6 no 14 Not Dat Petite

SECOND STRINGERS
COFFS HARBOUR
R5 no 2 Montanus
R6 no 13 Where's Min e
R7 no 15 Outerpole
R8 no 13 Bye Bye Bwuce

[Percentum]

TOP 4

FOXTON
R2 no 4 Vim
R7 no 7 Rangatira
R8 no 2 Fritzy Boy
R9 no 4 Tickles

[Percentum]

TOP 5
RICCARTON
R1 no 14 Lautenschlager
R7 no 10 Poacher
R10 no 14 Between Friends
ADELAIDE
R2 no 4 July
R4 no 3 Stop The Traffic

SECOND STRINGERS
FLEMINGTON
R6 no 5 Majestical
R8 no 2 Cat's Fun
RANDWICK
R4 no 4 Abbacina
ADELAIDE
R7 no 10 Sellers

[Percentum]

TOP 5
CAIRNS
R8 no 14 Zedmatic
COLERAINE
R1 no 6 Blevic's Belle
R2 no 9 Tookaboy
R3 no 4 Flying Corkscrew
R5 no 1 Musee D'Goss

[Percentum]

TOP 5
AWAPUNI
R2 no5 Blame Me
R3 no 4 Elen
R4 no 3 Gladstone
R5 no 1 Gauchito Bastado
R7 no 2 A Dark Horse

[Percentum]

TOP 5
MATAMATA
R1 no 11 Zahalla
R3 no 4 Inquisition
R6 no 2 King Oath
R7 no 1 Altered Image
R8 no 2 Dinari

[Percentum]

TOP 5
TE RAPA
R1 no 1 Golan's Lass
R4 no 3 Desert Lad
R6 no 11 Sterling Prince
R7 no 9 Sahry's Jewel
R8 no 6 Que Sera

SECOND STRINGERS
MORPHETTVILLE
R7 no 10 Stakhanovite
OTAKI
R9 no 5 Annie's Gun
ROSEHILL
R7 no 4 Enzedex Eagle
CAULFIELD
R6 no 4 Red Ruler

Stakhanovite is a horse who could surprise a few people in the Spring. He's highly consistent and always running on. Currently 300/1 in the Melbourne Cup.

Sahry's Jewel appears to have injury problems but has run his best races fresh. Should be a big price and may fluke it in the small field.

[Percentum]

TOP 4
SANDOWN
R2 no 1 Mazacano
R3 no 7 Tibooburra Travis
R4 no 6 Gorge
R6 no 11 Our Cannavaro

[Percentum]

TOP 5
ELLERSLIE
R1 no 2 Insignificant
R2 no 1 Acid Jazz
R3 no 9 Alderney
R5 no 8 Orpheus
R6 no 6 Karloss

SECOND STRINGERS
ELLERSLIE
R8 no 5 Vanak
NEW PLYMOUTH
R8 no 5 Tudor Bubble
MORPHETTVILLE
R2 no 1 Wheel The Lead
R4 no 4 Lucky Lurch

[Percentum]

TOP 5
MELBOURNE
R4 no 11 Most Immediate
R6 no 7 Sea Battle
R8 no 6 Tinseltown
BRISBANE
R6 no 7 Baqaba
ADELAIDE
R5 no 8 Lexcen

SECOND STRINGERS
HASTINGS
R5 no 2 Desert Lad
R6 no 3 Arlington
R9 no 16 Alagant Satin
R10 no 8 Wall Street

[Percentum]

Think I'll give these a rest. Someday they'll all get up but, as the song says, 'Someday never comes'(Creedence Clearwater Revival).